共查询到17条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
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将诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链相结合,提出一种基于诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链的组合预测模型,该模型可以克服传统的组合预测方法赋予不变的权系数和以单一误差指标作为预测精度衡量的缺陷,同时采用马尔科夫链推出各单项预测模型在各个预测时间点预测精度的状态,从而得到组合模型的权系数。文中首先采用回归法、指数平滑法及灰色预测法分别建立了陕西省某市年用电量单项预测模型,随后引进诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链的概念,建立了年用电量的组合预测模型,并对年用电量进行了实证分析。实例分析表明了新模型能有效地提高组合预测精度,降低预测的风险性,从而证明这种组合模型具有较好的实用性。 相似文献
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将诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链相结合,提出一种基于诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链的组合预测模型,该模型可以克服传统的组合预测方法赋予不变的权系数和以单一误差指标作为预测精度衡量的缺陷,同时采用马尔科夫链推出各单项预测模型在各个预测时间点预测精度的状态,从而得到组合模型的权系数。文中首先采用回归法、指数平滑法及灰色预测法分别建立了陕西省某市年用电量单项预测模型,随后引进诱导有序加权调和平均算子和马尔科夫链的概念,建立了年用电量的组合预测模型,并对年用电量进行了实证分析。实例分析表明了新模型能有效地提高组合预测精度,降低预测的风险性,从而证明这种组合模型具有较好的实用性。 相似文献
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基于K-L信息量法的安徽省工业用电量预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对区域工业用电量与经济指标的相关性,运用K-L信息量法,在月度尺度上筛选出能够指示区域工业用电量变化趋势的经济先行指标,并获得各先行指标的先行期数。以经济先行指标为自变量、区域工业用电量为被因变量建立多元回归模型,根据AIC准则和BIC准则选取最佳拟合方程,得到工业用电量预测模型。运用模型预测安徽省2014年5月-12月的月用电量,结果显示预测精度较高,预测方法可以用于工业用电量预测。 相似文献
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BP网络模型在大型泵站用电量预测中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对大型泵站年用电量的非线性规律,提出应用BP网络模型的预测方法。该方法采用误差逆传播学习规则,具有较强的非线性拟合能力,实例计算分析表明,与线性回归模型预测方法相比较,BP网络模型对大型泵站年用电量的预测是有效的。 相似文献
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为满足电力规划部门的实际需求,并充分利用海量开源数据,提出一种基于开源大数据,自主整理数据并自适应选择预测模型的电力负荷预测方法,该方法通过收集海量数据并归类,筛选得到多个与负荷预测强相关的数据源,并提出自适应负荷预测模型,该模型应用灰色预测函数、弹性系数预测函数、人均用电量预测函数、人工神经网络预测函数等多种数学方法,且可以根据数据来源进行相应拓展,并采用四种评价指标对多源预测结果进行修正。实例应用结果表明,该方法可以提高预测精度,工程实用价值较大。 相似文献
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文中针对用电量预测的多元线性回归模型,提出了逐步回归分析方法。与传统的多元线性回归模型相比较,逐步回归分析方法无需建立全部变量的回归方程,而是在全部自变量中按对因变量的作用大小,边进行显著性检验,边入选或剔除变量,不重要变量始终不进入回归方程,最后形成重要变量的最优回归方程。实例计算分析表明,与多元线性回归模型预测方法相比较,逐步回归预测模型对用电量的预测是有效的。 相似文献
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建立了一种基于用电量和GDP之间耦合关系的中长期电量预测模型。首先利用协整检验和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验,剖析电能消费和经济发展之间的协整关系和因果关系,并建立中长期电量预测模型。然后采用误差修正方法对预测模型进行短期调节,以提高模型的鲁棒性以及预测精度。以某地区1991—2015年的用电量和GDP数据作为算例输入数据,结果表明:通过构建电能消费和经济发展之间的耦合关系,有助于提高预测模型的解释能力,同时含短期调节的中长期用电量预测模型具有更高的预测精度。 相似文献
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负荷预测的变权重灰色模型及其应用 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
针对传统灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在电力负荷预测中存在的局限性,提出了电力系统中期负荷预测的变权重灰色模型.以河北承德为例进行负荷预测,并与指教平滑法、动平均法、二项式预测模型和GM(1,1)模型四种方法的预测结果及实际用电量进行分析比较.结果表明,该模型预测精度较高、简捷、合理、实用,可作为中期电力负荷预测的工具之一. 相似文献
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《Energy Conversion and Management》2005,46(9-10):1393-1405
Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey. 相似文献
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月度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性的二重趋势,针对月度用电量的这一变化特点,提出了一种基于小波分析和灰色预测模型的用电量预测方法,同时考虑春节影响因素,结合移位修正法对1月份和2月份的用电量进行修正.经过实例分析和计算,结果表明该方法有较高的预测精度,具有较好的适用性和可行性. 相似文献
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Electric load forecasting is an important task in the daily operations of a power utility associated with energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment and load dispatch. Inspired by the various non-linearity of electric load data and the strong learning capacity of support vector regression (SVR) for small sample and balanced data, this paper presents an adaptive fuzzy combination model based on the self-organizing map (SOM), the SVR and the fuzzy inference method. The adaptive fuzzy combination model can effectively count for electric load forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability at the same time. The key idea behind the combination is to build a human-understandable knowledge base by constructing a fuzzy membership function for each homogeneous sub-population. The comparison of different mathematical models and the effectiveness of the presented model are shown by the real data of New South Wales electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed model. 相似文献
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This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970–2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. 相似文献
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