BP世界能源统计2014年评论

2013年全球主要能源消费增长了2.3%,低于过去十年2.5%的平均增速。与全球平均水平比较,非经合组织成员国的能源消费增长速度放慢,而经合组织成员国的能源消费增长速度加快;即便如此,新兴经济体在全球能源需求中仍占主导地位,2013年新兴经济体的能源需求增长占80%。石油仍是全球主导性燃料,占全球能源消费的32.9%,但石油的市场份额仍连续14年出现下滑,其目前市场份额是自1965年以来的最低值。全球天然气产量增长了1.1%;全球核能发电量增长了0.9%,是自2010年以来第一次增长;全球煤炭消费量增长了3%,中国和印度占了全球煤炭消费量增长的88%;全球水力发电量增长了2.9%,以中国和印度为首的亚太地区占了全球78%的增长量。     

浙江省能源消费总量控制对策研究

针对合理控制能源消费总量是解决浙江省能源供需矛盾的有效应对之策,指出如何在省区内合理分配能源消费总量目标,是目前较难解决的问题。提出了要综合考虑各地经济社会发展水平、能源消费特征、区域特征等因素,坚持分解公平原则,探讨科学的方法,合理地确定浙江省各地能源消费总量控制目标。     

全球能源结构明显变化

<正>根据BP发布的《2014年世界能源统计报告》,2013年全球一次能源消费总量加速增长,能源结构变化明显。2013年全球一次能源消费增长2.3%,远高于2012年的1.8%,加速明显,但仍低于近10年来2.5%的平均水平。新兴市场国家占全球能源消费增量的80%,平均增速为3.1%;OECD国家的消费增速则达到1.2%。美国消费增速为2.9%,增长强劲,几乎占OECD国家的全部增量。从能源消费结构看,石油仍是全球主导性燃料,占一次能源消费量的32.9%,但这已是连续第14年比重下降,为1965     

世界能源消费现状和可再生能源发展趋势(上)

1 世界和中国能源消费现状和趋势 据美国能源部能源情报署(EIA)完成的<国际能源展望2004>基准状态预测,世界能源消费在24年内(2001～2025年)将增加54%,全球能源消费总量预计将从2001年的4.3×1017千焦增加到2025年6.8×1017千焦.图1示明全球各种一次能源消费及预测.     

世界可再生能源发展趋势

20世纪70年代的石油危机,导致了一批可再生能源新技术的产生,值得注意的是,目前全球可再生能源的发展已经步入了新的阶段。国际能源机构的研究资料表明,在大力鼓励可再生能源进入能源市场的条件下,到2020年,新的可再生能源（不包括传统生物质能和大水电）将占全球能源消费的20％,可再生能源在能源消费中总的比例将达30％,无论从能源安全还是环境要求来看,可再生能源将成为新能源的战略选择。     

全球能源投资和技术展望概要

<正>国际能源署(IEA)发布了《2014全球能源投资展望》和《2014能源技术展望》,对2014~2035年全球能源发展趋势和投资需求、2050年前不同情景下能源技术发展趋势进行了展望。得出如下结论:1能源投资日趋增长,大量消费廉价能源的时代正在过去,世界能源价格将大幅上升。到2035年,全球每年能源投资比目前增加25%,总量至少达48万亿美元,其中能源供应投资40万亿美元,节能投资8万亿美元。未来我国电力价格主     

全球煤炭消费量创44年来的新高

<正>在世界各国领导人试图为气候变化国际协议和解决方案造势时,人们继续生产和烧掉大量煤炭。事实上,煤炭消费量目前占全球能源市场的30%以上,是44年来所占的最高份额。最近发布的"2014年BP世界能源统计回顾"显示,2013年煤炭消费量增长3%,超过其他能源。这还低于煤炭消费10年的平均增长水平,过去10年中燃煤消费的年增长率约为4%。对于那些希望用替代能源和可再生能源削减像煤那样的占支配地位的传统能源的国家,这不是好消息。虽然可再生能源持续增长(特     

砥砺奋进的5年:清洁能源发展和应用全面提升

<正>党的十八大以来,我国能源结构显著优化,为推动能源革命、保护生态环境发挥了重要作用。五年来,我国能源结构实现重大调整,清洁能源发展迅速。到2016年底,可再生能源发电装机容量达5.7亿千瓦,约占全部电力装机的35%;我国非化石能源消费比重,从2012年的9.1%提升至2016年的13%。目前,我国水电、风电、光伏发电装机容量已稳居全球首位。根据国家能源局统计,"十二五"期间,我国核电、水电、风电、太阳能发电装机规模分别增长2.6倍、1.4倍、4倍和168倍,     

车用燃料替代的紧迫性

目前世界汽车保有量约8亿辆,预计到2020年将达到12亿辆。国际能源署的统计数据表明,2001年全球57%的石油消费在交通领域,预计到2020年,交通用油将占全球石油总消耗的62%以上。另外,减少排气污染、净化环境已成为车用燃料发展的方向。以欧盟为例,欧盟15国制定的＂汽车-油料发展规划＂,     

上海能源与电力发展中若干问题探讨

上海以较少的能源和电力消费,支撑了社会经济快速平衡健康发展。我们就能源和电力发展消费中的若干问题进行初步探讨,欢迎指正。1能源消费总量增速趋缓、一次能源消费结构不断优化、节能减排成效显著。"十五"期间,上海能源消费量年均增速8.4%,"十一五"期间下降为6.4%,下降两个百分点。2011年上海能源消费总量11270.48万t标煤,比上年增长2.4%,2012年上海能源消费总量估计为     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

A cross-sectional analysis of energy—output correlation

The nature of the correlation between energy consumption and output is examined based on cross-sectional data for 100 countries. The bias in the correlation due to the use of nominal income and to the convention adopted in measuring non-commercial energy consumption is analysed. It is found that when real income is used and non-commercial energy consumption measured in commercial energy replacement value, the cross-sectional energy elasticity increases rapidly from about unity for the low income developing countries to between 1.6 and 1.8 for the high income developing countries, and declines marginally thereafter in the industrial country income range. The results show certain disparity on energy-output ratio across countries with higher income countries consuming disproportionately more energy per unit of real output.     

A review of building energy regulation and policy for energy conservation in developing countries

The rapid growth of energy use, worldwide, hfs raised concerns over problems of energy supply and exhaustion of energy resources. Most of the developed countries are implementing building energy regulations such as energy standards, codes etc., to reduce building energy consumption. The position of developing countries with respect to energy regulations implementation and enforcement is either poorly documented or not documented at all. In addition, there is a lack of consistent data, which makes it difficult to understand the underlying changes that affect energy regulation implementation in developing countries. In that respect, this paper investigates the progress of building energy regulations in developing countries and its implication for energy conservation and efficiency. The present status of building energy regulations in 60 developing countries around the world was analysed through a survey of building energy regulations using online survey. The study revealed the present progress made on building energy regulations in relation to implementation, development and compliance; at the same time the study recommends possible solutions to the barriers facing building energy regulation implementation in the developing world.     

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

Developing countries’ energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries’ energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban–rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements.     

Asian renewables: Asia targets RE expansion - regional overview

Since the mid-1990s many countries in Asia have reviewed their energy development programmes and have given greater emphasis to the use of renewable energy. For some countries developing renewable energy is simply an extension of their existing energy policy. For others, however, particularly Asia's more economically developed countries that lack indigenous energy reserves, the decision to promote renewable energy is a costly choice and forms part of their Kyoto protocol pledges. In the first part of a two-part feature, David Hayes Refocus correspondent takes a look at renewable energy development and potential in Asian countries starting with China, India, South Korea and Japan.     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 21 African countries over the period from 1970 to 2006, using recently developed panel cointegration and causality tests. The countries are divided into two groups: net energy importers and net energy exporters. It is found that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, real GDP, prices, labor and capital for each group of countries as well as for the whole set of countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks, which can differ among countries. Furthermore, we find that decreasing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and importers. Finally, there is a marked difference in the cointegration relationship when country groups are considered.     

Energy consumption,economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption–GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries’ elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly, the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed.     

Trends of energy demand in the Middle East: A sectoral level analysis

The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made.     

Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries

The emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable well-being of the mankind. High volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition. Voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources, to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement. In this paper, a composite index of energy demand/supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability. The proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity, oil and gas import dependency, CO₂ content of primary energy supply, electricity supply weaknesses and non-diversity in transport fuels. The assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors.