The long- and short-run influences of housing prices on migration

A change in housing prices has a profound impact on households' housing equity and future moving decisions. While most previous studies focus on discussing the mobility lock-in effect due to housing price depreciation, revealing that there is a positive relationship between housing prices and migration, this study reexamines their relationship by using the panel cointegration method and city-level panel data for Taiwan during the 1994–2016 period. The empirical results reveal that migration and housing prices are cointegrated, and the influence of housing prices on migration is significantly positive in the long run. However, the influence of housing price changes on migration is not as significant as expected in the short run. To further examine their short-run relationships, we use quantile regression and the results show that the influence of housing price changes on migration is significantly negative below the 0.5 quantile, but it turns out to be significantly positive in the 0.9 quantile. The influence of housing price changes on migration is not significant between the 0.5 and 0.8 quantiles. We conclude that the influence of housing price changes on migration might be asymmetric in the short run.     

Privatising Public Housing in Hong Kong: Its Impact on Equity

Three processes are examined to assess the impact on equity of policies to privatise public housing in Hong Kong. These are changes in the inter-sectoral distribution of subsidies, changes in the quality and quantity of public rental housing, and changes in access to public housing. It is found that housing subsidies have remained concentrated in the public rental sector, and the quantity, quality and amenity of housing in this sector has actually increased. The Hong Kong Government has not sought to reduce eligibility for and access to public housing; the lengthy waiting list to join this tenure reflects increases in demand since the privatisation policy was introduced. Thus, unlike the experiences of many other countries, the Hong Kong Government's policy to privatise public housing has not had a notably adverse impact on housing equity to date.     

Gentrification or social renewal? Effects of public supported housing renewal in Denmark

This paper analyses social change, particularly the processes of social decay, in obsolete and deteriorated housing in the older housing stock in Denmark between 1986 and 1996. These changes are compared with the development which has occurred in similar kinds of housing that have been physically upgraded through a government program for housing renewal.

The study shows that this kind of housing attracts a quick turnover of residents and a tendency towards more unemployed or lower income occupants. It is also used by young people as their first home when moving away from their parents.

It is also shown that public supported housing renewal stops this type of housing pattern and increases the share of households that have high incomes. The changes, however, are not considerable and there are also many unemployed people among the newcomers. These changes depend to a large degree on the size and tenure of the renewed dwellings. In private renting, particularly co‐operatives and in larger dwellings the socio‐economic composition of residents undergo greater changes than in smaller dwellings in non‐profit or public housing. Extensive renewal often results in high rent compared with rent from the regulated housing market in Denmark. As a result the renewed dwellings have difficulties in competing with other kind of dwellings. For that reason residents of this type of housing primarily consist of welfare or pension recipients or others who receive high housing benefits. A minority of people with higher income also use these dwellings but mostly as temporary housing as after a few years they often move to owner‐occupied housing.     

基于住房分市场理论的城市住房规划研究——上海城市住房分市场动态变化驱动力研究的启示

随着社会经济体制改革的不断推进和深化,我国城市发展的动力机制、城市住房系统的运作机制也发生了深刻变化,要求我国城市规划、住房规划理论和方法与时俱进。本文构建了我国住房分市场动态变化研究的理论框架,对上海市两个案例住宅区1994至2005年住房分市场动态变化驱动力的实证研究表明:影响不同区位、不同层级城市住房分市场动态变化的供、需因素复杂多样,在不同层面上广泛地与社会、经济、环境变化、区域甚至国际发展变化的趋势、城市规划控制和土地供应等因素联系在一起。住房分市场动态变化的研究对我国市场化体制下的城市住房规划理论和方法的重构具有重要意义,也可为住房需求的评估和住房调控政策的制定提供依据。     

Improved Management of the Existing Stock - The Case of Poland

This paper traces the changes which have occurred in housing provision and management in Poland during the period of transition to the market system. It suggests that the changes that have occurred have been greatly influenced by the environment within which the reforms have taken place. It claims that changes in housing management are restricted by historic attitudes yet have proceeded due to financial constraints imposed as part of the government's policy for restructuring the economy in the early 1990s. At the same time these restrictions have worked against the developmentof the housing market and investment in the existing housing stock. While the planned programmaticand legislative tasks in the reform of Polish housing are concluded, there is still a need for major shifts in the attitudes of consumers and providers to effect these changes.     

Changing Residential Land Use Regulations to Address High Housing Prices

Problem, research strategy, and findings: In the past 3 decades, a series of presidential administrations—and the APA—have recommended that cities update their zoning codes to enable more affordable and market-rate housing development. I identify 5 main categories of policy recommendations they have suggested and then assess Los Angeles’s (CA) zoning changes in these categories between 2000 and 2016. I answer 2 questions: First, what zoning changes did Los Angeles adopt to address housing affordability? Second, how were these changes initiated, and what were their scope and geographic extent? I find that Los Angeles made modest progress in the 5 policy categories. The city left its large-lot, single-family zoning mostly untouched, but it rezoned roughly 1,200 acres citywide to allow at least 50 housing units per acre, reduced parking requirements in some areas, made it easier to build accessory dwelling units, and adopted new incentives for affordable housing. Several policy changes resulted from new state laws, and Los Angeles voters approved new incentives for affordable housing near transit. Homeowner influence likely prevented the municipality from engaging in larger zoning reforms. I do not study the effects of Los Angeles’s regulatory changes on housing production and prices, but such research is an important next step. I also do not assess new regulations that counteracted the impact of the 5 categories of policy recommendations.

Takeaway for practice: This research suggests 2 lessons: 1) Planners should encourage state governments to preempt local zoning when it reduces affordable housing options and there is limited local political will for change, and 2) planners should identify feasible and effective zoning changes that would increase affordable housing given local considerations.     

Effectiveness of Macro-regulation Policies on Housing Prices: A Spatial Quantile Regression Approach

The central government of China intensively implemented a series of housing macro-regulation policies to cool down overheated housing market in 2011–2013. This research uses spatial quantile regression to try to answer the question “How effective are the policies?” Results indicate that house-purchasing restrictions are effective to kerb the speculative demand for houses but are difficult to cool down housing prices especially for the cities with higher housing prices, the other policies could effectively decrease housing prices; however, the degree of effectiveness changes across cities with different level of housing prices. This suggests that China’s government may choose market-classified housing policies in future and heavily increase reserve requirement ratios and interest rates while house-purchasing restrictions are practiced. In addition, we find the positive spatial dependence of housing prices is stronger among cities with higher housing prices, which may more easily weaken the effects of housing policies for these cities when housing prices rise.

Highlights

? We model effects of macro-regulation policies on housing prices by spatial quantile regression in China’s housing market.

? We examine heterogeneous effectiveness of the policies across cities with different level of housing prices.

? House-purchasing restrictions are effective to kerb the speculative demand for houses but are difficult to cool down housing prices effectively especially for the cities with higher housing prices.

? The other macro-regulation policies effectively regulate housing prices; however, the degree of effectiveness changes across cities.

? Positive spatial dependence of housing prices is stronger among cities with higher housing prices.

     

Housing Policy Changes in Ghana in the 1990s

The housing sector in Ghana has undergone fundamental changes since the 1990s. Policy focus has shifted away from direct state provision and has moved strongly towards active private sector participation in housing production, financing and production of building materials. In part, this is due to the failure of public housing programmes, dwindling state resources, unimpressive performance of state-owned enterprises, and recognition that the government alone is unable to solve the housing problem. On a broader scale, the changes are rooted in liberalization ideologies that have swept through most economies in the 1980s and 1990s, which have had varying effects on people's housing need and on the national economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine these effects, to offer some interpretations, and to outline some of the lingering challenges facing the country's housing sector.     

Housing and the European Union

There is increasing interest in the Europeanisation of housing policy in the member states of the European Union. While the EU has no competence in housing policy, its different activities impinge on the housing sector in various ways. This paper argues that recent changes in EU policy have made the EU more important for the housing sector and that it is essential to continue to review the interaction between European policies and housing activity.     

Housing Consumption and Residential Crowding in U.S. Housing Markets

As families progress through the life cycle they generate different needs for housing space. The ability to satisfy these needs is clearly dependent on income, but at the same time it is affected by changes in household composition. The aggregate outcomes of the individual ability to adjust housing needs can be seen as a measure of the success of the housing market. This article examines changes in housing space consumption in the United States in the last two and a half decades at both the individual level and in aggregate outcomes. The research uses the data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explore the relationship of housing consumption to income, and the overall success of the adjustment process. Despite the concerns about housing affordability and income polarization in large metropolitan housing markets, the US housing market as a whole, as measured by crowding and roomstress, is continuing to provide a wide range of paths to increased consumption. At the same time the research shows that there is greater pressure on housing consumption in markets with substantial recent immigration.     

Atlanta's Last Demolitions and Relocations: The Relationship Between Neighborhood Characteristics and Resident Satisfaction

Using data from an Atlanta-based longitudinal study following 311 public housing residents relocated between 2009 and 2010 as the city's housing authority demolished its remaining public housing, the purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between changes in relocated residents' satisfaction with home and neighborhood and the socioeconomic, racial composition, and crime characteristics of their destination neighborhood. Consistent with previous research, we find that residents moved to somewhat safer neighborhoods with less poverty than those of the public housing. In addition, we find that residents view their new homes and neighborhoods as improvements over public housing. However, subjective pre- to postmove changes in satisfaction are not driven by changes in neighborhood characteristics (i.e., reductions in poverty and crime), but rather by decreases in perceived social disorder and increases in community attachment. Thus, our findings challenge some of the assumptions of poverty deconcentration. Policy implications are discussed.     

社会转型与中国城市居住形态的变迁

该文通过对1980年代以采中国城市住房政策和住区规划与设计的考察，结合对社会转型与城市居住形态相互影响的分析，概括了居住形态在宏观上从数量短缺到结构性短缺的变迁过程，并由此总结出当前住区规划应当关注的几个主要问题。     

The Next Blueprint for Housing Policy in England

This review outlines the changes to housing policy in England introduced or proposed by the UK coalition government elected in 2010. These changes form part of a longer term project to modernise housing policy, and are at the same time a response to an economic and public expenditure crisis. It is argued that these emerging proposals raise important questions for housing policy analysis and research—questions about the interpretation of earlier policy and practice, and about the factors likely to affect future policy outcomes and patterns of segregation.     

Measuring the benefits of urban improvements

This paper analyzes the benefits that arise from urban improvements such as changes in the transportation system or air quality. In general, two types of benefits occur: the direct or user benefits of the improvement and the secondary benefits of changes in land values and housing prices. Following the work of Mohring it has been widely held that the change in housing prices would be equal to and therefore offset the change in land values. Here it is shown that this result is true only if there are fixed coefficients in the production of housing and an inelastic demand for housing. An urban model without these restrictive assumptions is constructed to show that these secondary effects are not offsetting and cannot be ignored.     

Tenure type landscapes and housing market change: a geographical perspective on neo-liberalization in Sweden

Abstract

Discussions of tenure mix have received renewed interest as many have suggested that neo-liberalization has made way for gentrification of neighbourhoods and increasing segregation. Yet, few scholars have studied country-wide changes in tenure mix, due to the lack of data and appropriate methods. In this article, we propose to use tenure type landscapes to analyse changes in housing policy. We do so while acknowledging the evolution of housing policies in Sweden since 1990. Using individualized and multi-scalar tenure type landscapes to measure change in neighbourhoods, we analyse housing clusters in 1990 and 2012. We show that the tenure landscape in 1990 at the height of the welfare state was fairly diverse and mixed. During the next 22 years, however, the landscape changed to become more homogenized and dominated by ownership through tenure conversions and new housing. We argue that awareness of these changes is essential to understanding present and future segregation and gentrification processes.     

Managerialism and public housing reform

This paper discusses market inspired changes to the delivery of public housing in Queensland, Australia during the late 1990s. These policy changes were implemented in an organisational environment dominated by managerialism. The theory and method of critical discourse analysis is used to examine how managerial subject positions were assimilated and/or creatively resisted by different actors within the public housing policy community. These themes are discussed using interview data with a range of policy actors, including policy managers, front-line housing staff and public housing tenants. The analysis suggests that policy actors who openly challenged the emerging policy and organisational direction were marginalised in changing power relations.     

Portfolio Management in the Social Rented Sector: Valuation,Risk Analysis and Strategy Development

The financial aspects of social housing management are becoming more important for housing associations in Western Europe, due to changes in their economic and institutional context. As part of a trend towards the privatisation and decentralisation of public services, housing associations are becoming more self-reliant. Government financial support is decreasing and parts of the housing market are changing in response to low demand. To ensure that housing associations run an economic, efficient and financially sound business, knowledge of the financial performance of their stock is becoming more important for their investment policy. In the Netherlands, these general changes in housing policy, management and market have been a prominent feature of the last decade, and have resulted in a variety of responses under the general heading of asset and portfolio management. This paper describes methods for valuation, risk analysis and portfolio management for housing associations. The paper sets out the context within which Dutch housing associations operate. Existing methods for valuation and risk analysis are evaluated for their applicability to social landlords. These methods are placed within the business planning process to show how the methods can be used to inform asset management strategy. Finally the paper reflects on the implications for practice in social housing management.     

Current developments in social housing management

In this contribution we describe a number of current changes in social housing and social housing management, moving from a social profile to economic efficiency. We sketch conceivable future perspectives for the management of social housing. The authors anticipate increasing professionalization, a tendency towards a more businesslike approach with a larger risk awareness. We expect that future managers of social housing will also remain committed to the target groups who need assistance in obtaining decent and affordable housing.     

Developments in the provision of housing finance in the UK

Recommended reading for providers and designers of housing. The results of the housing finance changes in the UK included a wider range of institutions involved, significant developments in the source and delivery of that finance, as well as important changes in government policy opening up social housing to the private finance market, targeting subsidy more directly at particular groups of individuals and introduction of specific supply subsidies to new private rented sector. The considerable unease with certain outcomes is dealt with.     

Local Innovation And Global Change: ‘Remaking The Welfare State’ In Sweden1

Swedish urban planning and housing policies have been seen as exemplars by many Australian policy makers. The mixture of state activism, strong local government, broad concepts of welfare policy and social housing, coupled with wide community acceptance of these ideals, has enabled major innovations in housing policy. This article describes the historical background and recent changes to these policies within Sweden's changing political framework. It also shows that global fiscal changes, coupled with Sweden's entry into the ‘federalising’ European Union, have changed the context of these policies. Swedish housing and urban policy is changing; Swedish local government has a strong role in the development and implementation of these changing policies. There are many interesting lessons for Australian urban policy in these changes.