空气环境中聚氨酯的使用寿命预测

对聚氨酯进行实验室加速老化实验,研究了聚氨酯的断裂伸长率随老化时间的变化规律,得到了该材料在的断裂伸长率随老化时间的变化的数学关系式,依据实验得到的老化动力学参数,以断裂伸长率为指标对聚氨酯的使用寿命进行了预测。研究结果表明,在不同温度下,聚氨酯的断裂伸长率(E)与老化时间(t)的数学表达式为:E=626exp(-kt0.78),预测在25℃下该聚氨酯的使用寿命为18.17 a。     

环境因素对PBO纤维老化的影响和储存寿命预测

研究了紫外光、湿度和温度等环境条件对聚对亚苯基苯并二噁唑(PBO)纤维老化的影响,并对PBO纤维在常规环境下的储存和使用寿命预测进行了初步分析。结果表明:在PBO纤维的老化过程中,紫外光照射造成纤维表皮的强烈破坏,使其强度大幅降低;水分子向纤维内部渗透,使其加速老化和强度降低;温度的升高促进水分子向纤维内部渗透和活动。在避光和避水条件下,PBO纤维具有相当高的耐热氧老化性能。     

应力作用下硬质聚氯乙烯的紫外光老化机理

研究了聚氯乙烯(PVC)在应力作用下的紫外光老化行为.老化后的样品采用超薄切片法,应用红外和紫外光谱分析手段,从微观角度研究了应力对PVC各层化学结构变化的影响;同时对样品的凝胶含量和表面形貌等进行了表征,探讨了应力作用下PvC的紫外光老化机理.结果表明:应力使PVC的氧化层增厚,共轭双键层变薄;应力的存在会大大加速氧化反应,但却降低了共轭双键的生成量.     

自清洁聚氯乙烯型材的制备与性能

用硅丙乳液与纳米SiO2粒子在聚氯乙烯(PVC)型材表面制备了仿生自清洁涂层,采用扫描电镜、接触角表征了其低表面能、微-纳米粗糙结构。研究发现,当纳米SiO2含量为1.00%时,PVC型材表面涂层的接触角为151°,构成了超疏水表面。经集灰和耐玷污性实验发现,水滴能将面涂涂层的PVC型材表面的炭黑带走,涂层具有防污自清洁性能。耐候性研究表明,面涂涂层的PVC型材在老化10 d后,其总色差ΔE变化为8.61,具有优异的抗紫外老化性能,而没有涂层的PVC型材总色差变化为30.67,延长了户外PVC建筑型材的使用寿命。     

有机防护涂层综合加速试验老化动力学模型的建立

为了预测舰船航空飞行器有机防护涂层的服役寿命,模拟了其海洋服役环境:紫外光照射-周期浸润-温度冲击。采用电化学交流阻抗技术进行了综合加速试验,研究有机防护涂层的老化动力学过程,以交流阻抗低频模值为涂层性能的参数,建立了有机防护涂层的老化动力学方程。结果表明:在综合因素加速作用下,有机防护涂层的老化过程可以分为涂层完好、被腐蚀介质渗透、失去防腐蚀作用3个阶段;所建的涂层老化动力学模型有助于确定有机防护涂层的服役寿命和耐久性能,为其使用和维护提供了依据。     

麦秸/聚氯乙烯复合材料新疆户外老化性能

为探讨新疆强紫外线与干热环境对木塑复合材料抗老化性能的影响,添加不同种类抗老剂(UV-531、1010和168),采用挤出成型制备麦秸/聚氯乙烯(PVC)复合材料,进行90天新疆户外老化。测试和分析麦秸/PVC复合材料老化前后表面官能团和颜色变化、表面形貌和力学性能,计算羰基指数、木质素指数和表面粗糙度。结果表明:老化后表面麦秸纤维与PVC发生分解,出现褪色现象,粗糙度升高,力学性能下降。抗老剂均能提高麦秸/PVC复合材料的抗老化性能。其中,添加抗老剂UV-531的麦秸/PVC复合材料效果最优,与对照组相比,其羰基指数提高了19.27%,木质素指数降低了4.44%,色差ΔE降低了11.12%,表面粗糙度S_a降低了33.38%,弯曲强度和拉伸强度分别提高了5.87%和6.44%,表面更平整,麦秸裸露少。该研究结果可为提高木塑复合材料抗老化效力提供试验数据和理论参考,有利于延长木塑复合材料在新疆干热环境下的使用寿命。      

废弃高分子材料的内应力消除及使用寿命预测

为了减少废弃饮料瓶片(回收聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯,rPET)与瓶盖(回收线性低密度聚乙烯,rLLDPE)共混物的内应力,采用反应挤出法制备新型增容剂rLLDPE与甲基丙烯酸缩水甘油酯接枝乙烯-辛烯共聚物(POE-g-GMA)的接枝共聚物,通过溶剂沉浸法和热焓松弛拟合来观察和计算共混物的链段松弛时间,并利用动态力学性能预测材料的使用寿命。结果显示共混物在60℃下热处理25h以后,样条应力发白现象减弱,与热焓松弛拟合结果一致。120℃下热处理10h后的共混物在130~180℃时符合时温等效原理和WLF方程。根据共混物老化活化能的变化确定老化临界失效时间,利用寿命方程计算得到共混物在25℃下的使用寿命为9.6年。     

丙烯酸酯-苯乙烯-丙烯腈共聚物对聚氯乙烯紫外光老化性能的影响

借助色差分析、红外光谱、凝胶渗透色谱等手段研究了聚氯乙烯(PVC)/丙烯酸酯-苯乙烯-丙烯腈(ASA)共混物的紫外光老化性能。利用转矩流变仪和拉伸机研究了ASA对PVC加工和拉伸性能的影响。实验发现,与空白样相比,ASA的加入会使共混体系塑化和平衡扭矩增大,塑化时间缩短;对未老化样而言,ASA的加入会使体系的拉伸强度增加,但断裂伸长率的变化较小;而对老化样来说,ASA的加入会使体系的拉伸强度、颜色、双键和羰基随紫外光老化时间延长而产生的变化减小,但会使断裂伸长率衰减加剧;老化15 d后,PVC和ASA的相对分子质量明显减小,而PVC/ASA体系相对分子质量变化不大。在此基础上提出了相应机理。     

苯乙烯-丙烯腈共聚物对聚氯乙烯加工性能及抗紫外老化行为的影响

通过苯乙烯-丙烯腈共聚物(SAN)共混改性聚氯乙烯(PVC),制备了PVC/SAN共混材料。利用转矩流变、色差分析、表面形貌分析、元素分析等方法研究了PVC/SAN共混材料的加工性能和抗紫外老化性能。结果表明,SAN的加入可促进PVC的塑化,改善其加工性能;同时SAN具有较强的紫外光吸收能力,能抑制PVC脱氯化氢,显著降低紫外老化时PVC颜色变暗、变红和变黄的速率;此外SAN的引入使PVC/SAN共混材料表面平整、致密,可以有效阻止紫外光和氧气深入到材料内部造成严重的破坏,从而显著提高PVC的抗紫外老化性能。     

TZLD橡胶基体水声吸声复合材料在海水中的寿命预测

进行了TZLD橡胶为基体的水声吸声复合材料在海水中的实验室加速老化实验,研究了该类材料在海水中老化后的吸声性能、撕裂强度及硬度随老化时间的变化规律;在此基础上,计算了材料的老化动力学参数,并预测了材料的使用寿命。研究结果表明,该材料在40℃、60℃和95℃的海水中分别老化35d、45d,其吸声性能基本不变,不能根据吸声性能的变化预测材料的使用寿命。以撕裂强度和硬度为寿命预测指标,在常温(25℃)海水中该材料的使用寿命分别为29.79年和26.44年。     

Inference for a geometric‐poisson‐Rayleigh distribution under progressive‐stress accelerated life tests based on type‐I progressive hybrid censoring with binomial removals

Based on failures of a parallel‐series system, a new distribution called geometric‐Poisson‐Rayleigh distribution is proposed. Some properties of the distribution are discussed. A real data set is used to compare the new distribution with other 6 distributions. The progressive‐stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of an item under use condition is assumed to follow the geometric‐Poisson‐Rayleigh distribution. It is assumed that the scale parameter of the geometric‐Poisson‐Rayleigh distribution satisfies the inverse power law such that the stress is a nonlinear increasing function of time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type‐I progressive hybrid censoring with binomial removals, the maximum likelihood and Bayes (using linear‐exponential and general entropy loss functions) estimation methods are considered to estimate the involved parameters. Some point predictors such as the maximum likelihood, conditional median, best unbiased, and Bayes point predictors for future order statistics are obtained. The Bayes estimates are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, a simulation study is performed, and numerical computations are performed to compare the performance of the implemented methods of estimation and prediction.     

Lower Percentile Estimation of Accelerated Life Tests with Nonconstant Scale Parameter

Lower percentiles of product lifetime are useful for engineers to understand product failure, and avoiding costly product failure claims. This paper proposes a percentile re‐parameterization model to help reliability engineers obtain a better lower percentile estimation of accelerated life tests under Weibull distribution. A log transformation is made with the Weibull distribution to a smallest extreme value distribution. The location parameter of the smallest extreme value distribution is re‐parameterized by a particular 100pth percentile, and the scale parameter is assumed to be nonconstant. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are derived. The confidence intervals of the percentiles are constructed based on the parametric and nonparametric bootstrap method. An illustrative example and a simulation study are presented to show the appropriateness of the method. The simulation results show that the re‐parameterization model performs better compared with the traditional model in the estimation of lower percentiles, in terms of Relative Bias and Relative Root Mean Squared Error. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric inferences for ramp stress tests under random censoring

This paper considers nonparametric estimation of lifetime distribution of a product under ramp stress accelerated life tests in which the stress on an item increases linearly with time and observations are randomly censored. Assuming that a cumulative exposure model holds, the lifetime distribution of an item under ramp stress is derived. Three nonparametric estimators of the lifetime distribution at use condition stress are obtained for the situation where the time transformation function relating stress to lifetime distributions of a test item is a version of the inverse power law. The proposed estimators are robust to underlying lifetime distribution and are computed in closed form. They are compared with maximum likelihood estimator for small samples under exponential lifetime distribution. The method is extended to the case of competing risks.     

Statistical Inference on Constant Stress Accelerated Life Tests under Generalized Gamma Lifetime Distributions

We will discuss the reliability analysis of the constant stress accelerated life tests when a parameter in the generalized gamma lifetime distribution is linear in the stress level. Statistical inference on the estimation of the underlying model parameters as well as the mean time to failure and the reliability function will be addressed on the basis of the maximum likelihood approach. Large sample theory will be derived for the goodness of fit of the data. Some simulation study and an illustrative real example will be presented to show the appropriateness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability analysis of exponentiated Poisson-exponential constant stress accelerated life test model

Accelerated life testing is an efficient tool frequently adopted for obtaining failure time data of test units in a lesser time period as compared to normal use conditions. We assume that the lifetime data of a product at constant level of stress follows an exponentiated Poisson-exponential distribution and the shape parameter of the model has a log-linear relationship with the stress level. Model parameters, the reliability function (RF), and the mean time to failure (MTTF) function under use conditions are estimated based on eight frequentist methods of estimation, namely, method of maximum likelihood, method of least square and weighted least square, method of maximum product of spacing, method of minimum spacing absolute-log distance, method of Cramér-von-Mises, method of Anderson–Darling, and Right-tail Anderson–Darling. The performance of the different estimation methods is evaluated in terms of their mean relative estimate and mean squared error using small and large sample sizes through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, two accelerated life test data sets are considered and bootstrap confidence intervals for the unknown parameters, predicted shape parameter, predicted RF, and the MTTF at different stress levels, are obtained.     

Nonparametric estimation for accelerated life tests under intermittent inspection

This paper considers nonparametric estimation of lifetime distribution based on grouped data from constant stress accelerated life tests under intermittent inspection in which test items are inspected only at specified points in time. A method of estimating the lifetime distribution at use condition stress is proposed for the case where the time transformation function relating stress to lifetime is a version of inverse power law. Numerical studies show that the proposed method is comparable to the maximum likelihood method for small sample size and is more accurate than existing nonparametric methods used for continuous inspection. The method performs better than the maximum likelihood method when the underlying lifetime distribution is incorrectly specified.     

埋地PVC管纵向断裂失效预测概率模型

针对存在初始裂纹缺陷的埋地PVC管在荷载作用下的纵向断裂失效问题,基于管道环向受力特性和裂纹扩展经验公式建立失效预测模型,并在此基础上运用蒙特卡罗法(MC)对模型和参数的不确定性进行随机模拟,给出管道失效风险率随服役时间变化的规律。计算结果表明:MC数值模拟结果与实测值吻合良好,说明失效预测模型的合理性;裂纹增长是一个由慢到快的过程,初始裂纹越大,失效时间越短;失效风险率在开始的20年内达到最高,随后逐渐减小;所有参数都作为随机变量考虑时与只有初始裂纹为随机变量时相比,失效风险率提高近一倍;管道初始裂纹、内压、残余应力和壁厚是影响管道失效时间的四个重要因素,管道内压和残余应力增加都导致管道失效率变大,准确的给出管道初始裂纹的分布对PVC管纵向断裂失效预测尤为重要。能够减小PVC管初始裂纹缺陷的生产工艺和施工技术可以有效提高管道的使用寿命。     

Constitutive modelling and creep life prediction of a directionally solidified turbine blade under service loadings

Abstract

The high pressure turbine (HPT) blade of a heavy duty gas turbine operates under the interaction of complex aerodynamic, centrifugal and thermal loadings. The reliability of continuous working at elevated temperatures is a major limitation in service application of these materials. Therefore, it is essential to build the constitutive equations for predicting and analysing the creep deformation and creep lifetime of the blade. In present work, the creep deformation and lifetime of a HPT blade made of a nickel-based directionally solidified (DS) superalloy was numerically predicted. The θ-projection method was used to characterize the creep deformation of DZ125 under different temperatures and stress levels. The uniaxial equations of the θ-projection method were expanded into multi-axial form which was implemented into ABAQUS/UMAT (User MATerial subroutine) by an Euler method. A modified θ-projection method was employed to promote the adaptability of the original model to both steady state and transient temperature fields. Transient stress, strain and displacement distribution of the critical position inside the blade were obtained for service loading. The Larson–Miller parameter was employed to predict the creep lifetime of the blade. Simulation and results of the θ-projection method may also provide suggestions for the safety and life evaluation of HPT blade and other turbine blades.     

Inverse Gaussian Processes With Random Effects and Explanatory Variables for Degradation Data

Degradation models are widely used to assess the lifetime information of highly reliable products. This study proposes a degradation model based on an inverse normal-gamma mixture of an inverse Gaussian process. This article presents the properties of the lifetime distribution and parameter estimation using the EM-type algorithm, in addition to providing a simple model-checking procedure to assess the validity of different stochastic processes. Several case applications are performed to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model with random effects and explanatory variables. Technical details, data, and R code are available online as supplementary materials.