PPP 项目全寿命周期质量管理评价研究 ——基于精细化管理理念

为深入探究 PPP 项目全寿命周期质量管理,将精细化管理理念应用到 PPP 项目质量管理评价体系中,以 BOT 模式 的 PPP 项目为研究对象,将 PPP 项目全寿命周期划分为前期策划、项目融资、项目建设、项目运营和项目移交 5 个阶段, 选取层次分析法（AHP）,确定了包括 5 个阶段一级指标和 16 个二级指标的 PPP 项目全寿命周期质量管理评价指标体系, 运用了 PPP 项目质量管理评价模型,并将模型应用到实际案例中。结果表明:运用精细化管理理念的全寿命周期质量管理 评价可客观地评价质量管理效果,也为 PPP 项目质量管理持续改进提供思路。     

Critical success factors for PPP/PFI projects in the UK construction industry

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly used in the United Kingdom's public facilities and services provision through the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Despite some casualties, PPP/PFI projects have been undertaken successfully, but the reasons for success are not entirely clear. Questionnaire survey research examined the relative importance of 18 potential critical success factors (CSF) for PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK. The results show that the three most important factors are: ‘a strong and good private consortium’, ‘appropriate risk allocation’ and ‘available financial market’. Factor analysis revealed that appropriate factor groupings for the 18 CSFs are: effective procurement, project implementability, government guarantee, favourable economic conditions and available financial market. These findings should influence policy development towards PPPs and the manner in which partners go about the development of PFI projects.     

Achieving best value in private finance initiative project procurement

The wherewithal of achieving best value in private finance initiative (PFI) projects and the associated problems therein are documented. In the UK, PFI has offered a solution to the problem of securing necessary investment at a time of severe public expenditure restraint. In PFI schemes, the public sector clients must secure value for money, while the private sector service providers must genuinely assume responsibility for project risks. A broad‐based investigation into PFI risk management informs the discussion in this paper. It is based on 68 interviews with PFI participants and a case study of eight PFI projects. The research participants comprised of contractors, financial institutions, public sector clients, consultants and facilities management organizations. The qualitative software Atlas.ti was used to analyse the textual data generated. The analysis showed that the achievement of best value requirements through PFI should hinge on: detailed risk analysis and appropriate risk allocation, drive for faster project completion, curtailment in project cost escalation, encouragement of innovation in project development, and maintenance cost being adequately accounted for. Factors that continue to challenge the achievement of best value are: high cost of the PFI procurement process, lengthy and complex negotiations, difficulty in specifying the quality of service, pricing of facility management services, potential conflicts of interests among those involved in the procurement, and the public sector clients' inability to manage consultants.     

Vergabeentscheidung und Wirtschaftlichkeitsberechnung von PPP/PFI‐Projekten in der Bauwirtschaft

Contract letting and economic calculation of PPP/PFI projects in construction industries. Risk premium has to be taken into account in the PPP comparison of producti‐vity. In case of PPP/PFI projects, officials compare the costs of self construction to the costs of leasing from private investors (PSC calculation). In this context, risk factors for two different variants (A, B) are calculated using both the DCF method and the VaR approach. Finally, the economic results for each PPP party and the expected yield are discussed.     

基础设施PPP 项目实物期权界定与分析

PPP 项目自身特点决定了项目运作过程中需要更为弹性的决策管理方法。实物期权方法更加重视弹性决策的价值问题,它可以用来对由未来变化决定的项目、不确定性大的项目以及需要战略修正的项目等进行评价。在PPP 项目运作程序分析的基础上,分阶段界定了PPP 项目的实物期权类型和实物期权的拥有人;并且从PPP 项目全寿命期的角度认为所有参与者拥有的是一个非常复杂的多重复合期权,给出了PPP 项目全寿命期实物期权分析路径图,以帮助管理者在项目运作过程中进行弹性决策。本研究是PPP 项目价值评估的基础工作,同时也是PPP 项目全寿命期风险管理的有力工具。使得实物期权在PPP 项目实践中更具操作性。     

Alternative approach to credit scoring by DEA: Evaluating borrowers with respect to PFI projects

Private finance initiative (PFI), as a form of public/private partnership (PPP), helps to contract the private sector to governmental projects. In contrast to traditional public financed projects, PFI projects are procured by allowing a private sector entity to take the responsibility to design, build, finance, and operate (DBFO) an asset for a contract period of up to several decades. Moreover, banks are perceived to take the leading role in financing PFI projects. Since project financing involves credit assessment of loan applicants, banks have employed popular credit scoring models to assess their creditworthiness. Although the existing models are useful for credit scoring, new models have to emerge in response to ever-changing business practices. This paper therefore aims at introducing the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as an alternative credit-scoring model. Unlike traditional credit-scoring building on a formula where weights to a set of criteria are assigned subjectively, DEA will automatically generate the relative weights for analysis. However, incorporating DEA demands additional considerations, which are discussed in this paper. Finally, examples are demonstrated for illustrating this alterative approach to credit scoring by DEA.     

建筑垃圾PPP项目风险系统稳定性分析

建筑垃圾处理 PPP 模式是建筑垃圾资源化发展的主要趋势。PPP 项目涉及的利益相关者众多,在全生命周期过程 中面临的不确定因素较多。基于建筑垃圾 PPP 项目全生命视角,构建建筑垃圾处理 PPP 项目风险评价体系,以 227 份问卷 调查数据分析为基础,利用应用管理熵理论和 Brusselator 模型,对建筑垃圾 PPP 项目风险系统稳定性耗散性能进行评价。 研究结果表明,建筑垃圾 PPP 项目风险系统处于耗散结构状态。要防范 PPP 项目系统风险非耗散性,未来应从鼓励技术创 新,加强灾害预防,提供政策扶持,加强项目管理等方面改进。     

Comparative performance of healthcare and transport PFI projects: Empirical study on the influence of key factors

Private Finance Initiative (PFI) has been used on many projects in the UK in the delivery of public services. Cost, time and risk performance in public projects was anticipated to be improved by the superior skills of the private sector. So far, there are limited empirical studies on the life cycle performance of PFI projects, especially performance comparison between different sectors. This study investigated and compared variations in costs, time, and client requirements tracking it through the strategic business case stage to the operational phase in healthcare and transport sectors. It explored the influence of sector-specific factors, project size and maturity of the PFI on these variations. It used documentary analysis of full business cases of five PFI projects and a questionnaire survey of 44 PFI projects in the UK. The findings reveal that there are still considerable cost and time overruns and requirement changes in PFI projects in both sectors over the development of the project and its early use. The health sector was better than the transport sector for time overruns but was worse on costs. Smaller-value projects outperformed larger projects on cost variations but underperformed on time.     

Contingency estimation using a real options approach

In construction projects, contingency is the budget which is made available to cope with uncertainties that would incur schedule and cost overruns. Contingency estimation requires considering project cost, schedule and technology variability. The effect of dynamic project management of the decision maker should also be taken into account. Accordingly a real options approach for estimating contingency from the owner’s point of view is presented. This approach not only explicitly recognizes the uncertainty in the life cycle of a construction project, but also incorporates a dynamic project management mechanism into contingency estimation. The contingency is valued by minimizing the expected project cost via a multi‐stage stochastic model that accounts for the variability of project cost and schedule and the exercise of dynamic project crashing. The numerical results indicate that the value of the decision maker’s dynamic project management makes up an important portion of the contingency.     

A contingency estimation model for software projects

A contingency estimation model for software development projects is presented. The proposed model considers the estimated cost and the risk of software projects to estimate contingency resources; hence, contingency estimates are correlated to the cost and risk of software projects. The model uses a generic probabilistic representation of the estimated cost; hence, it can be deployed with any project development environment and provides a flexible choice to software managers. Furthermore, the proposed model considers the risk tolerance of software organizations to estimate the contingency and helps to abate the maximum impacts of risk events within the risk tolerance. The proposed model is scalable to a portfolio of software projects. The model produces sub-additive contingency estimates which is essential to optimize a software project or a portfolio of software projects. The results of a case-study show that the contingency estimates are comparable with the actual contingency resources needed for the development of real software development projects.     

Enhancing life cycle cost analysis with a novel cost classification framework for pavement rehabilitation projects

Life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) procedures have been used over the past decades to justify the choice of one pavement design alternative over the others. However, many ambiguities associated with the life cycle cost input values, such as the discount rate and future cost estimates have questioned the credibility of the analysis results. Another unrecognized source of errors in pavement LCCA is the misunderstanding of pavement treatment costs when historical costs are typically used for estimating those costs. The historical costs of pavement rehabilitation projects typically include a significant amount of non-pavement-related costs, which may result in a wrong LCCA if not treated appropriately. This paper addresses this specific point of error and proposes a solution to eliminating this error by using a novel cost classification framework that successfully differentiates mainline roadway costs from non-pavement cost items. A case study using Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the probabilistic LCCA results. The results of the case study indicate that the conventional approach of using total rehabilitation project costs in LCCA may even lead to a wrong investment decision. The findings of this study will help practitioners and researchers better understand the nature of pavement rehabilitation project cost distributions.     

论建设项目全寿命周期管理成本控制

阐述了建设项目全寿命周期的概念,对建设项目全寿命周期各阶段的管理内容进行了分析,从业主的角度探讨了建设项目全寿命周期管理成本控制的几项措施,从而有效降低建设项目全寿命周期成本。     

公私合营(PPP)基础设施项目风险再分担研究

公平的风险分担是PPP项目成功的关键。特许经营合同体现PPP项目"事前"的风险分担,当项目出现预料之外的风险或预估风险的重要性发生重大变化时,政府和特许经营人就需要对原先的风险分担方案进行调整,以保障项目的经济生存能力和项目相关者的利益。通过12个代表性PPP案例的分析,识别了9个发生再分担的风险因素,并对风险再分担的决定因素和影响因素进行了探讨,以期为后续PPP项目的风险管理提供参考和借鉴。     

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.     

高速公路沥青路面全寿命经济分析

为了进一步提高公路建设的投资效益,在分析高速公路沥青路面耐久性和寿命周期关系的基础上,建立了沥青路面全寿命周期费用模型,该模型综合考虑了投资方案的初始修建费、未来的养护维修费、用户费用和寿命期内的其它相关费用。介绍了沥青路面全寿命经济分析的方法,讨论了全寿命经济分析过程中需要重点考虑的两个问题——沥青路面使用性能衰变的预测和维修时机、策略的选择,并对两种不同结构类型的沥青路面进行了实例分析。本文的研究可以为当前新形势下的公路建设项目投资决策和运营管理提供参考。     

A critical review of the application of TCE in the interpretation of risk allocation in PPP contracts

Along with the rise of public–private partnerships (PPPs) as a mainstream procurement system, we have seen a growing interest in studies of risk allocation in these projects. One of the serious academic endeavours is to apply both transaction cost economics (TCE) and the resource-based view (RBV) to explain risk allocation patterns found in PPP projects. The existing literature along these lines is deficient in three aspects: inappropriate choice of unit of analysis; poor specification of governance structure; and misinterpretation of asset specificity. A way for improvement is to analyse risk allocation in the context of PPP procurement in its entirety.     

不同成本超支情境下资源补偿 PPP 项目投资收益模型研究

为预测社会资本方的参与决策,对社会资本方成本超支承受能力进行量化研究,基于已识别的项目风险,提出资源补偿 PPP 项目全生命周期的成本超支事件,构建政府和社会资本承担成本超支的博弈模型和不同成本超支情境下社会资本方的投资收益模型。结果表明,双方就成本超支事件博弈的纳什均衡是成本节约情境;社会资本方投资收益率受超支金额和股权比例的影响,其承受能力有一定范围。因此,在项目前期应充分识别成本超支事件,确定最优股权比例,以促进社会资本方积极参与资源补偿 PPP 项目。     

基于收益-风险的绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈分析

绿色建筑是建筑业未来发展的重要方向,在开发商与业主具有有限理性的前提下,建立绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈模型。对博弈模型的研究表明,系统的稳定状态与开发绿色建筑相关的增量成本、增量收益和增量风险等因素密切相关。在此基础上,建立系统动力学仿真模型,借助数据仿真分析典型情形下绿色建筑需求侧博弈双方行为的动态变化,进一步验证绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈模型的理论分析结论。促进绿色建筑项目发展重点是增加开发商和业主在绿色建筑项目的增量收益。     

流域综合治理PPP项目政府选择社会资本方式及要求

首先分析流域综合治理PPP模式的难点,然后在收集已招标完成或处在前期采购阶段的29个案例基础上,从采购方式、PPP项目公司股权结构、对社会资本的要求以及是否接受联合体投标等四个方面进行分析。最后提出流域综合治理PPP模式宜采用竞争性磋商采购方式,政府应少量股权投入项目公司,对社会资本的要求应包括融资和专业能力等建议。     

基于ALCM-PPP模型的PPP项目建造阶段资产管理研究以跟踪审计为核心

首先分析资产全生命周期理念在PPP项目中的适用性,并以广州地铁11号线地下综合管廊为例说明应用效果。然后将资产全生命周期管理(ALCM)的理念融入PPP项目的建造过程中,建立ALCM-PPP模型,识别出在PPP项目建造阶段应重点展开审计的内容,包括PPP项目合同条款设置、施工技术和工序、工程量、隐蔽工程及竣工结算等内容。最后从上述审计内容阐述PPP项目建造阶段资产增值路径。