Adaptation of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) model in estimating direct run‐off from humid tropical forest catchments

Suitability of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) model of run‐off prediction was evaluated on three humid tropical forested catchments in Kimakia, Kenya. The catchments were dominated by Pinus patula (catchment A), Arundinaria alpina (catchment C) and Pennisetum clandestinum (catchment M). The study used discharge and rainfall data collected between 1958 and 1986. Seventy‐three (73) isolated storms were graphically separated into baseflow, interflow and surface run‐off. Forest cover types significantly improved catchments characteristics that influence baseflow and interflow generation in catchment C but not those that influence surface run‐off production. In its original form, the NRCS CN model resulted in direct run‐off estimates that deviated from observed ones by between 43.8% and 55.3%. These discrepancies were minimized through modification of the β and CN parameters. CN generated empirically using storm rainfall predicted the direct run‐off satisfactorily. Therefore, the modified NRCS CN model adequately estimates direct run‐off from humid tropical forested catchments.     

Gross solids from combined sewers in dry weather and storms,elucidating production,storage and social factors

Variation in rates of sanitary hygiene products, toilet tissue and faeces occurring in sewers are presented for dry and wet weather from three steep upstream urban catchments with different economic, age and ethnic profiles. Results show, for example, that total daily solids per capita from the low income and ageing populations are almost twice that from high income or ethnic populations. Relative differences are verified through independent questionnaires. The relationship between solids stored in sewers prior to storms, antecedent dry weather period and the proportion of roof to total catchment area is quantified. A full solids’ flush occurs when storm flows exceed three times the peak dry weather flow. The data presented will assist urban drainage designers in managing pollution caused by the discharge of sewage solids.     

Relationships between ultraviolet absorbance and total organic carbon in two upland catchments

Regression equations relating u.v. absorbance to total organic carbon (TOC) in river water are compared for streams draining two upland catchments in north-east Scotland which have similar climate, topography and land use but contrasting acidic and basic parent materials. A comparison is also made of regression equations for individual tributaries contributing to the main streams in each catchment. Reasons for observed differences are suggested. Changes in u.v. absorbance vs TOC relationships through storm events are discussed, and the problems associated with using TOC/absorbance relationships to monitor changes in TOC with time through storms are briefly considered.     

Particulate phosphorus bioavailability as a function of stream flow and land cover

Using total phosphorus concentrations to estimate eutrophication risk is problematic for management purposes, as only some forms of phosphorus are biologically available for phytoplankton growth. This study estimated the bioavailability of particulate phosphorus, in forested, urban, agricultural (i.e. dairy farm) and mixed land cover streams. Sixteen stream sites were sampled during base and storm flow conditions and the following parameters were determined: total suspended solids, total phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, percent bioavailable particulate phosphorus (%BAPP), total bioavailable phosphorus and sediment particle size distribution. Algal assays with Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to measure %BAPP. Percent BAPP averaged 17%, 26% and 24% for streams draining catchments with forested, mixed use and agricultural land cover, respectively, and %BAPP did not vary significantly between base and storm flow conditions in these stream types. In contrast, %BAPP averaged 73% in the urban streams during baseflows but declined to an average of only 19% during storms. Particle size distributions did not correlate with %BAPP in these samples. During storm events, particulate phosphorus concentrations increased in all streams by an average of 614% and total phosphorus increased by 200%, whereas total BAP (i.e. total dissolved phosphorus+%BAPP x particulate phosphorus) only increased by 72% because on average only 20% of the particulate phosphorus transported during these events was biologically available.     

Regionalisation of impervious area parameters of urban drainage models

Stormwater drainage models are increasingly being used in design and analysis of urban drainage systems. If these models are to be used for ungauged drainage systems for which no storm and corresponding flow data are available, then the model parameters have to be estimated through regional equations. These regional equations define the model parameters via measurable catchment properties. In this study, regional equations of two impervious area parameters, namely directly connected impervious area percentage (DCIA) and its depression storage (DS_i ), were developed for use in urban drainage models, using 15 gauged urban catchments in Melbourne Metropolitan area (Australia). The ‘small’ storm events of these gauged catchments were first used to calibrate the impervious area parameters, since the ‘small’ storm events produce runoff only from the impervious areas. These calibrated impervious area model parameters were then analysed with several measurable catchment properties to derive the regional equations. The results of the study revealed that DCIA was depended only on household density of the catchment, while DS_i was not correlated with any of the catchment properties analysed.     

Two-copula based simulation for detention basin design

This article presents a Monte Carlo simulation model based on Clayton copula to generate synthetic sequences of rainfall storms whose likelihood of occurrence is in consonance with historical records. These sequences are used as rainfall input data for the Storm Water Management Model to analyse a 3 km² watershed in the city of Granada, Spain. The objective of our study is to estimate the optimal volume of a detention basin that would solve the problem created by a downstream combined sewer system (CSS), part of which is undersized and which cannot be enlarged without considerable cost. In this model, the synthetic rainfall sequences provide multiple inputs to the CSS model, which produce a range of model outputs. Risk-based analysis of these outputs helps to quantify the variability of the CSS response. As a result, our model enables decisions based on the comparison of expected outcomes and the costs of different choices. The rainfall storms are represented as a sequence of rectangular pulses, whose occurrences are driven by a Poisson process with a given arrival rate. Both storm durations and average storm intensities are fitted as Pareto distributions and the dependence between these variables is described using Clayton copula.     

Wave-emplaced boulders: implications for development of "prime real estate" seafront,North Coast Jamaica

Jamaica has a long history of damage to the built environment in coastal areas due to storm surge and tsunami. However, there is limited scientific data to aid the establishment of minimal setback distances and to inform mitigation strategies. Developers of coastal area require cost-effective methods to guide their decisions and to develop mitigation strategies to reduce the potential risk posed to development. This paper explores the use of wave-emplaced boulders to determine the wave heights from historical storm surge/tsunami on the North Coast of Jamaica. As most of the study area was undeveloped priory to 1960, there are limited historical written records of storm surges and/or tsunami impact for this specific site. This research undertook geomorphic mapping of the proposed study area to determine the presence, location, spatial distribution, size, density and volume of wave-emplaced boulders along a 2-km stretch of coastline earmarked for development. Based on the wave-emplaced boulders mapped, it was possible to determine the approximate wave heights associated with storms and/or tsunami required to deposit them. The implications for development are discussed. The study of wave-emplaced boulders has provided a rapid and cost-effective method to determine minimal setback distance and the approximate height of waves associated with storms and/or tsunami. The technique developed may be transferable to other areas of coastline earmarked for development along the Jamaican coastline.     

Assessment of efficient sampling designs for urban stormwater monitoring

Monitoring programs for urban runoff have not been assessed for effectiveness or efficiency in estimating mass emissions. In order to determine appropriate designs for stormwater, total suspended solids (TSS) and flow information from the Santa Ana River was collected nearly every 15 min for every storm of the 1998 water year. All samples were used to calculate the "true load" and then three within-storm sampling designs (flow-interval, time-interval, and simple random) and five among-storm sampling designs (stratified by size, stratified by season, simple random, simple random of medium and large storms, and the first m storms of the season) were simulated. Using these designs, we evaluated three estimators for storm mass emissions (mean, volume-weighted, and ratio) and three estimators for annual mass emissions (median, ratio, and regular). Designs and estimators were evaluated with respect to accuracy and precision. The optimal strategy was used to determine the appropriate number of storms to sample annually based upon confidence interval width for estimates of annual mass emissions and concentration. The amount of detectable trend in mass emissions and concentration was determined for sample sizes 3 and 7. Single storms were most efficiently characterized (small bias and standard error) by taking 12 samples following a flow-interval schedule and using a volume-weighted estimator of mass emissions. The ratio estimator, when coupled with the simple random sample of medium and large storms within a season, most accurately estimated concentration and mass emissions; and had low bias over all of the designs. Sampling seven storms is the most efficient method for attaining small confidence interval width for annual concentration. Sampling three storms per year allows a 20% trend to be detected in mass emissions or concentration over five years. These results are decreased by 10% by sampling seven storms per year.     

Analysis of rainfall series in the design of urban drainage control systems

Intensity-duration-frequency curves are traditionally used in the design of urban runoff treatment and management systems. The uniform intensity for a specified duration and return period is selected for a design storm without consideration of the inter-event dry periods between two successive rainfall events. For many purposes, especially those related to urban storm pollution control and receiving water impacts, the cumulative effects of successive storm events must be taken into account. This fact requires the selection of design storms where the minimum inter-event dry periods are adjusted to the effect in question. This paper will discuss the concept of inter-event dry periods for evaluation of design storms derived from a rainfall record. As an example the rainfall record for the city of Odense, Denmark, has been analyzed. The basic statistics as well as the importance of the concept will be illustrated.     

XIMIS, a penultimate extreme value method suitable for all types of wind climate

This paper introduces XIMIS, an extended version of the existing IMIS method. The new method is penultimate in that it does not rely on asymptotic results, which in turn depend on the rate parameter rT→∞. For input it requires a sample of a mutually independent data set drawn from the original parent data, but having the same annual maxima as that parent. Thus it can use independent storm data or m-day maxima from temperate storms, or thunderstorm or cyclone maxima.In the paper, temperate storm data from Boscombe Down, UK, and cyclone and thunderstorm maxima, respectively, from Onslow, WA, and Brisbane, QD, in Australia are analysed. It is shown that derivation of standard 1:50 yr design values needs a mild extrapolation, which does not require any sort of probability model. A simple power law transformation is used to assist the extrapolation by linearising the plot. Derivation of 1:10,000 yr values does require a model and it is shown that if the relevant working variable is used, then there is no case for using any model except Type I. It is then argued that the transformation used for linearisation has good claims for validity for gross extrapolation, and the linearised plots are used to estimate 1:10,000 yr values.It is concluded that XIMIS is a useful design tool.     

风暴移动对下击暴流风场特性的影响研究

气象观测表明,下击暴流的风暴中心是移动的,风暴的移动会对风场特征产生重要影响。为研究风暴移动对下击暴流风场特性的影响,基于计算流体动力学方法建立考虑移动效应的下击暴流数值模型,并通过可移动喷口的冲击射流试验对数值模拟结果进行了验证。结果表明：移动下击暴流风场在风暴中心前缘存在较大环涡,形成弓形分布的极值风速区域,最大水平风速出现在距离风暴中心r=1.0Djet（Djet为喷口直径）左右,极值风速可达1.5Vjet（Vjet为射流速度）;风暴后方水平风速被减弱,最大风速出现在r=1.5Djet附近,极值风速约为0.8Vjet。近地面竖向风速随高度的增大而增大,受风暴移动的影响,在风暴中心区域,竖向风速向风暴移动方向一侧倾斜;在风暴中心区域以外,竖向风速主要由环涡引起,较大竖向风速主要分布于风暴中心后方以及风暴中心前方1.0Djet~2.0Djet的区域。风暴的移动导致风场中测点风速和风向随时间变化显著。     

Variation in rainwater chemistry,and its relation to synoptic conditions,at a site in North‐West England

Detailed studies of the chemistry of rainwater from 28 storms have been made at a site near Lancaster, England, using a specially‐designed sampler. Major cations and anions show high concentrations in the first rainfall collected for each event, and rapidly decrease to low but finite values in later samples. High initial concentrations are attributed to dissolution of aerosols and dry deposits previously collected on the funnel. The total ionic contribution to the rainwater samples by this process can be related linearly to the length of the dry period preceding the storm. Comparison of rainwater chemistry and storm trajectories suggests that airmasses which have passed over industrial areas have rainwater chemistry (high SO₄, Ca; low Na, Cl) which is distinct from that associated with storms of marine origin (high Na, Cl; low SO₄).     

Riparian zone influence on stream water chemistry at different spatial scales: a GIS-based modelling approach, an example for the Dee, NE Scotland

A geographical information system (GIS-ARC/INFO) was used to collate existing spatial data sets on catchment characteristics to predict stream water quality using simple empirical models. The study, based on the river Dee catchment in NE Scotland, found that geological maps and associated geochemical information provided a suitable framework for predicting chemical parameters associated with acidification sensitivity (including alkalinity and base cation concentrations). In particular, it was found that in relatively undisturbed catchments, the parent material and geochemistry of the riparian zone, when combined with a simple hydrological flow path model, could be used to accurately predict stream water chemistry at a range of flows (Q95 to > Q5) and spatial scales (1-1000 km2). This probably reflects the importance of the riparian zone as an area where hydrological inputs to stream systems occur via flow paths in the soil and groundwater zones. Thus, evolution of drainage water chemistry appears to retain the geochemical characteristics of the riparian area as it enters the channel network. In more intensively managed catchments, riparian land use is a further influential factor, which can be incorporated into models to improve predictions for certain base cations. The utility in providing simple hydrochemical models, based on readily available data sets, to assist environmental managers in planning land use in catchment systems is discussed.     

Loading of fecal indicator bacteria in North Carolina tidal creek headwaters: Hydrographic patterns and terrestrial runoff relationships

In the New River Estuary (NRE) in eastern North Carolina (NC), fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels exceed water quality standards, leading to closure of estuarine waters for shellfishing and classification of parts of the estuary as “impaired” per the Clean Water Act section 303(d) list. As a means to investigate fecal contamination and loading of FIB to the NRE, a continuous automated sampler (ISCO) outfitted with flow modules and water quality probes was placed in four first-order tidal creek headwaters. Total storm discharge and bacterial load for Escherichia coli (EC) and Enterococcus spp. (ENT) were calculated using graphical volumetric flow calculations and interpolation of FIB measurements over each storm’s duration for 10 storms. Mean total load of 10⁹- 10¹² EC and ENT cells (MPN) occurred over the course of each storm. Total storm loading, averaged across all storms, was as much as 30 and 37 times greater than equivalent duration of baseflow loading for EC and ENT, respectively. Within the first 30% of creek storm volume for all storms and all creeks combined, a mean cumulative load of only 37% and 44% of the total EC and ENT cells, respectively, was discharged, indicating these creeks are not demonstrating a ‘first flush’ scenario for FIB. The median storm Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) were 6.37 × 10² and 2.03 × 10² MPN/100 mL, for EC and ENT, respectively, compared with median baseflow concentrations of 1.48 × 10² and 4.84 × 10¹ for EC and ENT, respectively, and were significantly different between base and storm flow events. FIB was correlated with TSS (weak), flow rate (strong), and different stages (base, rising, peak, and falling) of the hydrograph (strong). Pollutographs indicate large intra-storm variability of FIB, and the need for more intensive sampling throughout a storm in order to attain accurate FIB contaminant estimates. Instream sediment concentrations ranged from 5 to 478 (MPN/g) and 13 to 776 (MPN/g) for EC and ENT, respectively, indicating sediment as a source, but a minor reservoir. This overall approach for calculating loading in headwater tidal creeks is detailed. Accurate loading characterization of FIB during storms and dry weather conditions, and understanding intra-storm FIB concentrations, is imperative for understanding patterns of water quality impairment, establishing management planning, and developing appropriate mitigation strategies.     

Microbiological and meteorological analysis of two Australian dust storms in April 2009

Dust is an important source of bioaerosols including bacteria. In this study, the microbiology and meteorology of specific dust storms in Australia were investigated. The samples were collected from two dust events in April 2009 that were characterised by intense cold fronts that entrained dust from the highly erodible and drought-stricken Mallee and Riverina regions of Victoria and central NSW. In the first storm, the dust travelled eastward over Canberra and Sydney, and in the second storm, the dust travelled east/southeastward over Canberra and Melbourne. Rain fell on both cities during the second dust storm. Dust and rain samples were collected, cultured, and the composition compared using polymerase chain reaction denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE). Multiple bands were evident on DGGE indicative of a diverse microflora, and identification of several bands confirmed the presence of multiple genera and species representing three phyla. Numerous bands represented Bacillus species, and these were present in multiple dust samples collected from both Canberra and Melbourne. Interestingly, the microflora present in rain samples collected in Canberra during the second dust storm was quite different and the DGGE banding patterns from these samples clustered separately to most dust samples collected at the same time. Identification of several DGGE bands and PCR products from these rain samples indicated the presence of Pseudomonas species. These results indicate that Australian dust and rain have a diverse microflora and highlights the contribution of dust events to the distribution of microbes in the environment.     

Modelling of runoff behaviour of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from roads and roofs

Road and roof dust was collected and samples of runoff were taken at an urban storm sewer system in a residential area in Japan. Suspended solids (SS) in the runoff samples were classified into two fractions: fine (smaller than 45 μm) and coarse (larger than 45 μm). Runoff monitoring and chemical analysis data were also used to validate a runoff model for particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that was originally developed to explain the behaviour of SS in the same area. The model, in which roads and roofs were considered separately as impervious surfaces, expressed the SS and particle-bound PAHs runoff behaviour for fine and coarse particles very well, except during and after heavy rainfalls (more than 10 mm/h). However, the model could not explain the PAH profiles of runoff particles; the profiles of 12 PAH compounds tracked in this study were almost constant and more similar to those of road dust than roof dust throughout the event. An improved model is developed which explains the runoff behaviour by considering two types of road dust with different mobility.     

Modelling on-site detention on a catchment-wide basis

Many countries are either currently using or considering the use of on-site detention (OSD) as a structural flood mitigation method. On-site detention is a structural element of a property drainage system that limits the site discharge of stormwater using outlet restriction devices. The excess stormwater runoff is temporarily stored on site in underground tanks or above-ground storage areas until the storm event recedes.

Sydney, Australia, has a stormwater system that is completely separate from the sewerage system. The stormwater systems are mainly managed by the 43 local councils and most of these use OSD as a means of reducing site discharge of stormwater, thereby relieving catchment flooding. Sheas Creek is an urbanized catchment that lies within the South Sydney City Council Local Government Area. Since 1984 an OSD policy has been implemented in the Sheas Creek catchment. The associated design code, like most others in Sydney, is based on discharge from individual properties without consideration of runoff from other parts of the catchment. This design code is therefore not based on a total catchment approach.

The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of OSD in a catchment-wide manner. More specifically, to see how existing and planned OSD affects flooding in the Sheas Creek catchment, and to test the effectiveness of the current rate of permissible site discharge (PSD). The study also looks at the effectiveness of OSD when different spatial distributions are used across a catchment. The methodology involved using a computer rainfall–runoff model, OSDSAX, which is based on the ILLUDAS model. This was configured for the Sheas Creek catchment and was calibrated to match flood level data recorded during four large storm events. The model was then adopted to investigate the impact of OSD. Various scenarios were tested to satisfy the objectives of the study. Some of the results challenge conventional wisdom and these arise from catchment-specific characteristics. The analysis shows that the perceived beneficial effects of OSD are in some cases unrealistic and that catchment modelling is required to test and quantify the actual impacts for specific catchments.     

Ice storms and forest impacts

Ice storms, or icing events, are important meteorological disturbances affecting forests over a surprisingly large portion of the USA. A broad belt extending from east Texas to New England experiences major ice storms at least once a decade; and truly major events occur in the heart of this belt once or twice a century. In the areas most affected, icing events are a factor that shapes stand composition, structure, and condition over wide areas. Impacts of individual storms are highly patchy and variable, and depend on the nature of the storm. Impacts also depend on how (or if) forest managers conduct subsequent salvage cuttings. Important research needs remain to be considered by the forest ecology and meteorology communities. At present, how ice storm frequency and severity may change with future climate change is unknown.     

Rainfall-induced unstable slope monitoring and early warning through tilt sensors

Real-time unstable slope monitoring is essential for recognition of landslide occurrence, as well as for early warning to reduce landslide-induced damages. This study investigated an unstable slope monitoring system that consists of tilt sensors aiming to establish an advanced time prediction model (TPM) for landslide early warning. The monitoring process utilized additional support devices (e.g. pipe strain gauges, water level gauges and a rain gauge) installed on a natural cut slope site. The tilt sensors could detect movements (in tilt angle) within the slope generated by heavy rains. Analysis of the recorded data revealed that the rate of movement, or tilt, was influenced by groundwater table fluctuations and antecedent rainfalls. A relationship between the tilt rate and the horizontal displacement calculated from pipe strain value has been established. Subsequently, a new classification of slope movement was proposed according to the tilt rates obtained from the deformation process of the slope. Considering the movement characteristics, two warning levels were identified such as warning and evacuation. Further, an advanced TPM was proposed in relation to realtime slope surface tilt rates. The TPM could provide efficient results at the continuous acceleration phase of the landslide occurrence. Therefore, we suggest this technique can be applied for monitoring and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides.     

Bioreactivity of particulate matter in Beijing air: results from plasmid DNA assay

An in vitro plasmid assay was employed to study the bioreactivity of PM (particulate matter) in Beijing air. It was found that the TD20 (toxic dose of PM causing 20% of plasmid DNA damage) of Beijing PM can be as low as 28 microg ml(-1) and as high as >1000 microg ml(-1). Comparison of the physical properties, such as morphology and size distribution, and oxidative potential indicates that the PM(2.5) (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm or less) has a stronger oxidative capacity than PM(10) (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm or less), and that the higher number percentages of soot aggregates and lower number percentages of mineral and fly ashes are associated with the higher oxidative capacity. Although the mass of PM(10) during dust storms is commonly 5 times higher than that during non-dust storm episodes, the oxidative capacity of PM(10)s of dust storms is much lower than that of the non-dust storm PM(10)s. The water-soluble fractions and intact whole particle solutions of Beijing airborne particles produce similar plasmid assay results, demonstrating that the bioreactivity of Beijing airborne particles is mainly sourced from the water-soluble fraction. In the samples with stronger bioreactivity, the total analyzed water soluble Al, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As and Pb (ppm) concentrations are higher. The water soluble zinc shows a good negative correlation with TD20s, suggesting that the water-soluble zinc is probably the major element responsible for the plasmid DNA damage.