Urban and regional development in post-reform China: the case of Zhujiang delta

Zhujiang delta region has been at the forefront of China's reforms and open door policy. There has been enormous investment from Hong Kong and elsewhere. The region has undergone dramatic economic growth and spatial transformations. Such changes have been brought about by various factors and the consequence of the development has not been evenly distributed in the region. This monograph will assess the urban and regional development comprehensively by employing a county-level demographic/economic data set of the region. This will be complimented by other data. This monograph will update the previous studies that mainly used larger spatial units such as prefecture-level cities and a few key economic indicators such as GDP. The monograph focuses on the inflow of non-local investment, infrastructure development, factor contributions to regional economic growth, polarized development and the increasing links between Hong Kong and Zhujiang delta region. The development experience of the Zhujiang delta region will in no doubt shed light on the urban and regional development in both China and many developing countries.     

The design and implementation of a regional economic-demographic simulation model

Managing urban growth patterns is essential for an economic and demographic development process which maximizes public and private investments in the urban environment. This paper presents the results of a modelling design effort to link a hybrid regional input-output model to demographic, labor force and energy models for use in planning in the San Francisco Bay Region. Extensive use of system feedback is a major component of this research effort. Summary results of the model outputs are presented in this paper.     

Urban spatial structure,agglomeration economies,and economic growth in Barcelona: An intra‐metropolitan perspective*

This paper presents an intra‐metropolitan approach to analyse the impact of urban spatial structure on local economic growth. Focusing on the Barcelona metropolitan region (BMR) between 1986 and 2001, we estimate a municipal employment growth model in which dynamic agglomeration economies related to urban spatial structure are considered using distance to employment centres, to assess metropolitan effects, and distance‐weighted variables, to measure neighbourhood effects. The results obtained show the existence of neighbourhood specialization economies and metropolitan urbanization‐localization economies fostering local growth. All of this leads to the paper's main conclusion: urban spatial structure is important for economic growth in an intra‐metropolitan context.     

Using Remotely Sensed Imagery to Detect Urban Change: Viewing Detroit from Space

The data integration capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are providing new opportunities for urban analysis. This article describes the work of a multidisciplinary team who used spatial data from NASA's Landsat earth observation satellite to analyze the net vegetation change between 1975 and 1992 in Detroit, Michigan. Furthermore, by integrating the satellite-derived change data with census data from 1970, 1980, and 1990, this research shows how the extensive demographic changes that occurred in Detroit over the past quarter century have resulted in physical landscape changes detectable from space. Strong correlations were found between the patterns of social, economic, and demographic data and the pattern of vegetation change seen in the satellite imagery, both for certain points in time and changes over time. These correlations suggest that the imagery reflects processes of urban growth, inner-city decline, population shifts, and change in urban form.     

国家战略视角下新兴增长区域空间发展研究——以江苏沿海地区为例

多个地区区域发展规划的出台表明,新一轮国家空间战略的重点是规划引领新兴增长区域的发展,培育新的增长着力点.以江苏沿海地区为例,提出新兴增长区域在国家空间格局调整中逐步从边缘区转变为成长区,并成为国家和省域经济增长的重要支撑空间;城镇空间发展思路突出资源环境约束下的新型工业化、集中城镇化、生态化的发展策略,以城镇带、都市...     

城市空间增长效应评价方法——以重庆市为例

在城市空间快速增长背景下,开展城市空间增长效应评价研究,有助于解决城市空间增长中出现的问题,可为确定城市空间发展战略、制定空间发展政策提供依据。城市空间增长效应评价方法旨在定量、客观地判断城市空间增长过程中要素配置与运行是否合理、高效和公平。笔者建立了结构配置效应、经济配置效应和公平配置效应3个方面的评价体系,通过目标法对城市空间增长效应进行评价,得出空间增长效应评价函数。以重庆市为例进行实证分析,结果显示:重庆市2004—2013年间的城市空间增长效应总体呈上升发展趋势,结构性、公平性趋好;合理配置效应和经济配置效应波动显著,反映出城市建设面临的用地结构优化、用地效率提升等方面的问题。     

Demographic and Economic Changes in Small Towns in South Africa’s Karoo: Looking from the Inside Out

This article seeks to situate the experience of demographic and economic change in South African small towns within a broader context. Drawing on international literature detailing demographic, economic and racial changes within small towns, the paper relates these trends to the Karoo region in South Africa. The research findings reveal that small towns in the Karoo are experiencing selective demographic and economic growth, which particularly favours the larger small towns. There is clear racial differentiation in the growth which is taking place and, contrary to predictions made in the 1970s, small towns in South Africa are not all experiencing absolute decline.     

Development aspects of migration in third world settings: a simulation,with implications for urbanization

A simulation of the interrelationships between development and migration in developing countries is presented. "Development is represented as the diffusion of demographic transition, employment opportunities, and formal and communication channels, which in turn affect informal communications and the overall economic base. The simulation falls within the genre of neoclassical development models, but, unlike many, explicitly explores the long-run aspects of landscape evolution." The results generally "conform with expectations hypothesized in earlier research, including phenomena such as polarization reversal, converging regional disparities, and low-level equilibrium traps at small remote places where continual resource drain thwarts the agglomeration economies necessary for sustained growth. [The authors] also find that the initial urban system configuration has little effect on the final configuration, and that only urban size diseconomies are likely to alter significantly the size, spatial distribution, and spatial characteristics of the urban system."     

A multi-scenario forecast of urban change: A study on urban growth in the Algarve

The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use resources were widely exploited to create an integrated tourist industry. In this area, economic prosperity has led to an increasing population and a significant growth of infrastructures to cope with the demand from the hospitality sector. The far-reaching land-use changes have, however, led to high pressures on the coastal areas of the Algarve. This region has shown an increasing loss of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of urban areas. This paper proposes a dynamic assessment of urban growth in the Algarve based on non-linear complex system modelling by using cellular automata converging on qualitative story lines with quantitative spatial methodologies. This new methodology utilizes both quantitative and qualitative spatial results by a comparative validation of built scenarios, in order to highlight future land use trends. In particular, three scenarios will be explored, each with distinct specific socio-economic paths. Our analysis to identify the scenario with the best fit, based on the evolution of the actual 2006 land cover, enabled us to build a future urban growth model for 2020 which was quantitatively assessed. The outcome suggests a picture of continuing growth for the region of the Algarve within the framework of current policies and regressive spatial trends.     

东北地区产业结构演变城市化响应的空间效应

通过对东北地区城市化与产业发展相互作用过程进行考察,可以发现城市化对东北区域经济发展以及产业结构升级的响应空间形态主要表现为资源产业型城市与边境口岸型城市的发展、城市开发区(新区)的建设、产业整合区的空间发育、城市经济体的形成以及交通经济带的发育等方面。并且,城市化响应形态发展对产业结构升级发挥了重要作用效应,通过建立相关分析模型,并进行区域比较,得出城市化形态对东北地区产业发展的支撑作用主要体现在促进第三产业的发展上,但东北地区产业结构演变城市化响应空间形态的总体经济效应弱于全国整体水平。     

Asian megacity characteristics,problems, and policies

"Using ten Asian megacities as examples, this article discusses a range of megacity characteristics and problems, including population growth, economic structure, spatial strategies, land policy, urban service provision, institutional development, and managerial problems. In spite of major progress in urban service delivery, ineffective land policies and inadequate cost-recovery systems remain serious obstacles. Megacities need and are promoting policentric spatial structures, but implementation lags in many cases. Institutional reforms are needed to cope with the metropolitan region character of megacity growth."     

Maintain,demolish, re-purpose: Policy design for vacant land management using decision models

Decline, measured in population growth rates, population levels, housing stock and economic activity, and associated increases in vacant land in urban areas, is a reality for cities and regions within the United States. However, planners increasingly see ‘decline’ as a development state to anticipate and a development strategy to consider. For example, a place may lose population while continuing to provide a high quality of life and social value. Vacant land is central to planning issues related to decline: some currently-occupied housing may likely become abandoned and demolished, yielding vacant lots, while some currently vacant lots may be inputs to alternative uses such as recreational space, urban farming or commercial uses. In this paper, we develop decision models that enable planners to generate a range of neighborhood-level development strategies that jointly optimize multiple objectives related to residential satisfaction, scale economies in development and equity. We apply these models to a case study of a small city. Model solutions may help planners understand how alternative model formulations are associated with spatial variation in active versus passive land uses, values of important output measures such as residential satisfaction, and the special role that vacant land plays in regional development policies that can be classified as smart growth or smart decline.     

Testing the recession theory as an explanation for the migration turnaround

"In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround."     

Latent sprawl patterns and the spatial distribution of businesses in a southern European city

The relocation of businesses beyond the consolidated city is an important aspect of recent urbanization trends. With economic restructuring driven by suburbanization and counter-urbanization, Southern European metropolitan areas experienced distinct growth patterns compared with north-western Europe. The present study assesses the impact of recent changes in the spatial distribution of businesses on land-use structure, sprawl trends and land consumption in a Mediterranean urban region (Athens, Greece) with the aim to identify economic drivers of sprawl and to inform urban containment strategies. Businesses showed two distinct localization patterns: manufacture, publishing and transport companies, construction and hotels were concentrated in urban municipalities; real estate, finance, high-tech, telecommunication, mining and energy enterprises settled preferentially in suburban municipalities. Dispersed urban expansion mainly reflects the spatial relocation of economic activities with high returns on capital to cheaper land. High-tech enterprises and finance/real estate businesses dominated the economic structure of municipalities with sprawled settlements. Policies securing economic development and a land-saving spatial structure are increasingly required to work towards integrated measures promoting semi-compact metropolitan poles and containing deregulated urban expansion.     

Globalization,regional development,and mega-city expansion in Latin America: Analyzing Mexico City’s peri-urban hinterland

This paper examines the transformation of urban space in the peri-urban areas of Latin American mega-cities, further exacerbating the multi-jurisdictional political divisions that cover a single urban entity. This is against the backcloth of a sharp decline in metropolitan growth rates, absolute population loss in the city center, and an alleged “polarization reversal” of national urban patterns. It argues that previous approaches have failed to recognize that globally and nationally-derived economic development processes are often vested in these meta-urban peripheries. Using Mexico City as an example, the authors propose a new generic methodology that will allow for a broader definition and analysis of mega-city and large metropolitan development. Data are presented within this new framework that help to unpack the demographic, economic and land-use changes that are taking place in Mexico City’s broader urban area. Much of the contemporary vibrancy and dynamics of Mexico City’s metropolitan development are occurring in “hot-spots” in the extended periphery, which, to date, have rarely been considered an integral part of the mega-city. Yet these areas are also some of the principal loci of contemporary globalization processes.     

Australian Cities and Regions in the Depression: Recent Trends in Unemployment

Australia's recent economic woes have produced a steep rise in national unemployment rates since 1989 (Figure 1) but – as always – the impacts have not been even. Some regions, some cities and some parts of our major cities have fared worse than others. This is no surprise. Much of the recent literature on the nature of urban development in the Western world has emphasised the spatial uneven-ness of the impacts of economic restructuring and demographic change. However it is important that as social scientists and policymakers weareawareof the specific spatial dimensions of the current recession in this country. This Forum examines current trends in unemployment at four spatial levels. At each level, significant variations occur as the result of the intersection of differences in industry mix, occupational structure, and demographic and socio-economic composition within local labour markets. Kevin O'Connor and Virginia Rapson begin by examining contrasts between the capital cities, establishing a national context for the subsequent more detailed contributions, and highlighting in particular the recent decline in Melbourne's job market following the collapse of the finance and property sector.     

宁波栎社机场周边地区发展临空经济的规划思考

宁波栎社机场周边地区已基本具备发展临空经济的条件,宁波临空经济区规划建设根据临空产业的地域分布特征,通过研究临空产业的布局特点,明确临空经济的功能定位,将机场地区的开发纳入城市总体发展战略中进行统筹安排,形成了优化产业结构、突出临空特色,加强区域合作、整合空间结构等两大产业与空间核心发展策略.     

长三角城市群人口老龄化时空变化分析

人口老龄化是城市发展和城市管理考虑的重要因素。长三角城市群是人口老龄化的高峰地区。根据第五次、六次人口普查数据,分析了长三角城市群人口老龄化的空间分布特征与变化情况。研究表明,老年人口数量在长三角地区呈现北高南低的分布特点。沿沪宁、沪杭甬发展轴,人口老龄化空间分布呈逆核心边缘结构。人口老龄化水平区域差异的直接原因是人口迁移和老年人口的自然增长。经济发展水平、政府政策、城市规划、社会保障和文化等是重要影响因素。     

A micro-simulation model of firms: Applications of concepts of the demography of the firm

Recently, there is an increasing demand in spatial planning for models based on the demographic concepts of birth and death of firms. This article describes the structure of a spatial demographic simulation model of firms, and its application within The Netherlands. The model structure is essentially of the familiar demographic cohort component type, where an initial cohort of firms ages in a number of discrete steps, and where in each step additions and subtractions to and from the population are modelled using birth, death and migration components. Apart from the central processes of birth, death and migration, the type of economic activity and firm size are highly important for understanding firm behaviour over time. The article describes the transition functions for each of the demographic components and for firm growth. In addition, some empirical results are presented of a number of model simulations in The Netherlands. The results were partly validated using observed economic demographic data. It is concluded that a substantial amount of work remains to be done in this new field. The model presented here has direct implications for the research agenda of the study of the demography of the firm. Received 28 April 1999 / Accepted 6 December 1999     

沿海欠发达地区城市带发展影响因素及发展路径研究——以鲁南城市带为例

研究表明,经济社会空间集聚程度不高、距离成本较大、城乡分割严重是制约鲁南城市带发展的重要因素.基于此,鲁南城市带应优化空间结构,引导人口和经济在空间上的集聚,消除空间障碍,降低经济社会发展中的距离成本,统筹城乡发展,减少分割,以促进鲁南城市带健康、快速发展.