模糊综合评价法在危险化学品道路运输风险评价中的应用

采用科学合理的评价方法来评估危险化学品道路运输的安全风险程度,对提高道路运输的安全管理水平具有十分重要的现实意义。引入了模糊综合评判的方法,结合事故树分析确定事故发生的可能性;并将数学计算模型与模糊综合评价方法相结合,从人员伤亡、财产损失、影响范围、环境影响、信誉损失5个方面量化事故后果严重度,建立一套完整的危险化学品道路运输的风险评价体系。并通过实例说明该方法的可行性。     

基于三角模糊树的油气管线爆炸事故的FTA分析

管道爆炸的现场数据难以收集整理,事故发生的概率难以确定。引入模糊评价方法中的三角模糊理论来描述难以计算的管道爆炸事故的概率,确定顶上事件的模糊概率区间;为了确定引起事故发生的组合模式,通过Fault Tree Analysis(事故树)简称FTA分析法,应用Boolean algebra method(布尔代数法)求得事故树的最小割集;通过中间值法的应用,确定各个引起事故的基本事件的结构重要度,通过对各个基本事件的结构重要度的整理,确定影响顶上事件-事故发生的重要因素的先后顺序,可以对排列靠前的影响较重的因素进行改善。     

模糊预测及在化工生产中的应用

介绍了一种基于模糊逻辑的事故预测方法，通过对生产过程进行模糊辩识，建立一个合适的模糊模型，由此对事故进行模糊预测。这种方法在沈阳化工股份有限公司离子膜烧碱生产系统中得到了应用，效果良好。     

基于模糊事故树的制药企业氯化反应釜火灾、爆炸事故分析

针对制药企业氯化反应釜故障发生概率的不确定性,运用模糊事故树评价法,并结合工程技术人员的实际经验和判断,引入L-R型模糊数,应用正态型隶属函数,对氯化反应釜进行模糊可靠性分析,求出了氯化反应釜火灾、爆炸事故的模糊概率可能性分布;并运用结构重要度系数近似值法对事故树底部事件进行排序分析,确立了氯化反应釜发生火灾、爆炸的最主要因素,为制药企业及时发现氯化反应釜存在的安全隐患,指导设备安全管理和检修维修工作提供科学依据。     

基于层次分析法的化工园区事故风险综合评价及分级预警研究

通过对化工园风险识别与分析,构建基于企业环境风险危害性、企业安全性、企业应急管理和企业污染治理能力4个准则层指标及17个底层指标的事故风险评估预警指标体系。采用层次分析与模糊综合评价结合的分析方法构建评估预警模型,对园区内潜在风险企业进行综合评价并根据风险等级进行分级预警,做到及时判断警度、报告警级、发布警情,从而预先控制潜在风险事故发生的趋势,避免事故发生。     

基于作业条件危险性分析的集输站场模糊风险评价

集输站场是一个连续的生产过程,生产介质具有火灾爆炸危险性。传统的作业条件危险性分析仅能从事故发生可能性、暴露频率、事故所产生的后果角度,进行风险评价。没有考虑集输站场工作岗位间的差别。文章在分析了集输站场岗位危险有害因素的基础上,运用模糊评价的基本理论,建立了集输站模糊风险评价模型,评价了某集输站场,确定风险等级为Ⅳ级,风险处于可接受水平。     

基于模糊规则的输气管道风险评估方法研究

输气管道一旦发生泄漏,极易引发火灾爆炸等重大事故,给社会、经济和环境造成重大损失。为指导事故的预防和控制,提出了基于模糊规则的管道风险评估方法。首先,基于管道泄漏为初事件的事件树,构建输气管道失效后果框架图;接下来,采用层次分析法和专家评判来确定各因素的权重值;然后,引入三角模糊数对后果事件等级进行判断,并与模糊综合评价相结合来分析各个后果事件的严重程度;最后,结合失效后果模糊概率,利用模糊规则库对管线的风险进行分析。结果表明,利用该方法可以实现管线风险的量化,为管线的风险评价和完整性管理提供一种新的思路。     

加热炉炉温的模糊广义预测控制仿真研究

针对加热炉炉温的大惯性、大滞后及非线性等特点,提出一种基于T-S模糊模型的模糊广义预测控制策略。T-S模糊模型的前件和后件参数分别采用粒子群优化的模糊C-均值算法和递推最小二乘法辨识,根据输入变量更新模型隶属度并将T-S模糊模型等价转换为线性模型,以此作为预测模型应用于广义预测控制。仿真结果表明:该方法在不同工况下均具有较短的调节时间,在扰动作用下有很强的鲁棒性。     

基于模糊层次分析法的城市燃气管道风险评估

目前,我国城市燃气事业进入蓬勃发展时期,城市燃气管道铺设长度日益增长,城市燃气管网系统的安全问题也日益严峻.城市燃气管网作为城市能源供应系统的重要组成部分,其输送的燃气具有易燃、易爆、有毒的特性,易发生火灾、爆炸或中毒事故.在模糊数学理论的基础上,结合层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,以此建立城市燃气管道风险评价模型,并运用...     

高校环境类实验室安全风险评估探索

环境类实验室存在安全风险,必须加以防范。针对环境类实验室的特点,采用风险评估理论,指出了影响环境类实验室安全的主要因素和事故类别。结合模糊综合评价模型,对环境类实验室主要的事故风险进行综合评价,得到定量的评价结果。     

Insect antifeedant properties of anthranoids from the genusVismia

Vismiones and ferruginins, representatives of a new class of lypophilic anthranoids from the genusVismia were found to inhibit feeding in larvae of species ofSpodoptera, Heliothis, and inLocusta migratoria.     

Direct observation of freeze-thaw instability of latex coatings via high pressure freezing and cryogenic SEM

Despite its industrial importance, the subject of freeze-thaw (F/T) stability of latex coatings has not been studied extensively. There is also a lack of fundamental understanding about the process and the mechanisms through which a coating becomes destabilized. High pressure (2100 bar) freezing fixes the state of water-suspended particles of polymer binder and inorganic pigments without the growth of ice crystals during freezing that produce artifacts in direct imaging scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of fracture surfaces of frozen coatings. We show that by incorporating copolymerizable functional monomers, it is possible to achieve F/T stability in polymer latexes and in low-VOC paints, as judged by the microstructures revealed by the cryogenic SEM technique. Particle coalescence as well as pigment segregation in F/T unstable systems are visualized. In order to achieve F/T stability in paints, latex particles must not flocculate and should provide protection to inorganic pigment and extender particles. Because of the unique capabilities of the cryogenic SEM, we are able to separate the effects of freezing and thawing, and study the influence of the rate of freezing and thawing on F/T stability. Destabilization can be caused by either freezing or thawing. A slow freezing process is more detrimental to F/T stability than a fast freezing process; the latter actually preserves suspension stability during freezing. Presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Federation of Societies for Coatings Technology, October 27–29, 2004 in Chicago, IL. Tied for first place in The John A. Gordon Best Paper Competition.     

Ethanol and (−)-α-Pinene: Attractant Kairomones for Bark and Ambrosia Beetles in the Southeastern US

In 2002–2004, we examined the flight responses of 49 species of native and exotic bark and ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae and Platypodidae) to traps baited with ethanol and/or (−)-α-pinene in the southeastern US. Eight field trials were conducted in mature pine stands in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Funnel traps baited with ethanol lures (release rate, about 0.6 g/day at 25–28°C) were attractive to ten species of ambrosia beetles (Ambrosiodmus tachygraphus, Anisandrus sayi, Dryoxylon onoharaensum, Monarthrum mali, Xyleborinus saxesenii, Xyleborus affinis, Xyleborus ferrugineus, Xylosandrus compactus, Xylosandrus crassiusculus, and Xylosandrus germanus) and two species of bark beetles (Cryptocarenus heveae and Hypothenemus sp.). Traps baited with (−)-α-pinene lures (release rate, 2–6 g/day at 25–28°C) were attractive to five bark beetle species (Dendroctonus terebrans, Hylastes porculus, Hylastes salebrosus, Hylastes tenuis, and Ips grandicollis) and one platypodid ambrosia beetle species (Myoplatypus flavicornis). Ethanol enhanced responses of some species (Xyleborus pubescens, H. porculus, H. salebrosus, H. tenuis, and Pityophthorus cariniceps) to traps baited with (−)-α-pinene in some locations. (−)-α-Pinene interrupted the response of some ambrosia beetle species to traps baited with ethanol, but only the response of D. onoharaensum was interrupted consistently at most locations. Of 23 species of ambrosia beetles captured in our field trials, nine were exotic and accounted for 70–97% of total catches of ambrosia beetles. Our results provide support for the continued use of separate traps baited with ethanol alone and ethanol with (−)-α-pinene to detect and monitor common bark and ambrosia beetles from the southeastern region of the US.     

Methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoates Attract Stink Bugs and Tachinid Parasitoids

Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Pentatomidae), called the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), is a newly invasive species in the eastern USA that is rapidly spreading from the original point of establishment in Allentown, PA. In its native range, the BMSB is reportedly attracted to methyl (E,E,Z)-2,4,6-decatrienoate, the male-produced pheromone of another pentatomid common in eastern Asia, Plautia stali Scott. In North America, Thyanta spp. are the only pentatomids known to produce methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoate [the (E,Z,Z)-isomer] as part of their pheromones. Methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoates were field-tested in Maryland to monitor the spread of the BMSB and to explore the possibility that Thyanta spp. are an alternate host for parasitic tachinid flies that use stink bug pheromones as host-finding kairomones. Here we report the first captures of adult and nymph BMSBs in traps baited with methyl (E,E,Z)-2,4,6-decatrienoate in central Maryland and present data verifying that the tachinid, Euclytia flava (Townsend), exploits methyl (E,Z,Z)-2,4,6-decatrienoate as a kairomone. We also report the unexpected finding that various isomers of methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoate attract Acrosternum hilare (Say), although this bug apparently does not produce methyl decatrienoates. Other stink bugs and tachinids native to North America were also attracted to methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoates. These data indicate there are Heteroptera in North America in addition to Thyanta spp. that probably use methyl 2,4,6-decatrienoates as pheromones. The evidence that some pentatomids exploit the pheromones of other true bugs as kairomones to find food or to congregate as a passive defense against tachinid parasitism is discussed.     

2007～2008年世界塑料工业进展

收集了2007年7月～2008年6月世界塑料工业的相关资料,介绍了2007～2008年国外塑料工业的发展情况,提供了世界塑料产量、消费量及全球各类树脂的需求量及产能情况.按通用热塑性树脂(聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、ABS树脂)、工程塑料(尼龙、聚碳酸酯、聚甲醛、热塑性聚酯、聚苯醚)、特种工程塑料(聚苯·硫醚、液晶聚合物、聚醚醚酮)、通用热固性树脂(酚醛、聚氨酯、不饱和聚酯树脂、环氧树脂)不同品种的顺序,对树脂的产量、消费量、供需状况及合成工艺、产品应用开发、树脂品种的延伸及应用的进一步扩展等技术作了详细介绍.     

2005～2006年国外塑料工业进展

收集了2005年7月～2006年6月国外塑料工业的相关资料,介绍了2005—2006年国外塑料工业的发展情况。提供了世界塑料产量、消费量及全球各类树脂生产量以及各国塑料制品的进出口情况。作为对比,介绍了中国塑料的生产情况。按通用热塑性树脂（聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、ABS树脂）、工程塑料（聚酰胺、聚碳酸酯、聚甲醛、热塑性聚酯、聚苯醚）、通用热固性树脂（酚醛、聚氨酯、不饱和树脂、环氧树脂）、特种工程塑料（聚苯硫醚、液晶聚合物、聚醚醚酮）的品种顺序,对树脂的产量、消费量、供需状况及合成工艺、产品开发、树脂品种的延伸及应用的扩展作了详细的介绍。