水利改革发展对水资源规划与管理需求分析

总结了国内外传统水利发展沿革,提出传统水利发展存在的问题,进而分析了新时期水利改革发展的趋势。在此基础上．总结分析了新时期水利改革发展大背景下水资源规划与管理的需求．为我国水利改革发展提供技术支撑和经验总结。     

Integrated Resource Planning for Water and Wastewater

Abstract

This paper describes the use of integrated resource planning for water and wastewater service provision by a major urban water utility. This methodology aims to meet the water and sewerage needs of the community at the least cost and includes an explicit analysis of the costs and benefits of measures that reduce the demand for water and the discharge of wastewater effluent. It therefore requires disaggregation of the demand for water into end-uses and a consideration of the linkages between the water supply and sewerage components of the business. This approach has significant advantages in economic, environmental, and social terms. The case study results indicate that significant investments in water efficiency programs are justified on economic grounds, particularly where augmentation of water and sewerage infrastructure is planned. Three studies undertaken as part of Sydney Water's efforts to integrate supply- and demand-side planning are described in this paper: first, a major integrated resource planning exercise designed to reduce demand for water by up to 35 percent, costing more than AU$25 million; second, a case study in a series of small towns where the benefits arise from reducing the capacity of sewage treatment plants by reducing wastewater flow; and third, in a major industrial region where water efficiency measures integrated with reuse measures reduce overall costs.     

Multicriterion Analysis for Sustainable Water Resources Planning: A Case Study in Spain

The present article demonstrates the implementation of Multicriterion Decision Making (MCDM) analysis for a case study of Flumen Monegros irrigation area in the Huesca province of Spain. The criteria used to rank alternativesconsist of (1) economic factors including initial cost ofirrigation system, maintenance cost, profitability of crops,extent of European subsidies; (2) environmental factors whichcomprise water volume, water quality after irrigation, efficiency of the use of water, resistance to floods or droughts; (3) Social factors including employment of rurallabour, area non-cultivated. Alternative policies areformulated by mixing factors such as irrigation system, waterpricing, water allocation, crop distribution, fertiliser use,subsidies received. Multicriterion Sorting Technique (MCST)ELECTRE-TRI is employed to reduce the large size payoff matrixto predefined categories for further usage of MCDM techniques.Five MCDM techniques, namely, PROMETHEE-2, EXPROM-2, ELECTRE-3, ELECTRE-4, and Compromise Programming (CP) are employed torank the alternatives. Spearman rank correlation coefficientis employed to assess the correlation coefficient between theranking patterns obtained by the above MCDM techniques.Additive ranking principle is used for group decision makinganalysis. Results indicate that five MCDM techniques choosethe same alternative strategy as the preferred one.     

A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning

The paper emphasizes compromise based on cooperativeness as a solution of a decision problem in water resources planning. A decision making process committed to consensus utilizing compromise solution as a consensus proposal is presented. The presented methodology is utilized to study the development of a reservoir system for the storage of surface flows of the Mlava River and its tributaries for regional water supply. The method VIKOR is applied to determine compromise solution of a problem with noncommensurable and conflicting criteria including economic, environmental, social, and cultural features. The obtained compromise provides a maximum group utility of the “majority” and a minimum individual regret of the “opponent”.     

多维偏好分析技术在水资源系统规划中的应用

多目标决策是水资源系统规划和运行管理研究中一类常见问题，本运用多目标决策方法中多编偏好分析的线性规划技术，对若干个可行方案进行优选。根据可获知的方案信息，通过构造一相应的线性规划问题并求解，即可得到最优方案，利用方案信息和线性规划技术是本所使用方法的特点，对于具有更多方案的多指标决策问题，这一方法与层次分析法相比较，可以避免大量的矩阵运算。     

基于混和遗传算法的水资源与污染控制系统综合规划

水资源与水污染控制系统的综合规划是使水污染的综合治理、水资源的分配以及系统的总费用达到最优的多目标优化过程,是进行水污染控制与防治以及水资源分配的必要手段,也是整个环境污染防治的最重要组成部分之一。引入多目标优化的混和遗传算法(HGAs)对该系统进行计算,可以实现有效地优化控制。     

陕西渭河流域水资源和水环境管理模式演进与管理方法研究

回顾了陕西省渭河流域水资源管理的理论与实践演进过程,并分析了渭河流域水资源与水环境的现状,在借鉴了成功流域管理经验的基础上,对渭河流域的水资源可持续性管理提出了意见和建议,以期对未来陕西渭河流域的水资源管理工作有所参考。     

计划用水动态管理模型及其应用

基于目前我国水资源管理效率不够高,效果不够好这一现实,建立了适用于多水源,多工程,多用户等复杂条件下的计划用水的动态管理模型,提出了利用滚动预测供水量,进行实时调度,逐月调整计划用水指标的方法,针对缺水地区,提出了按行业或企业节水水平高低和用水重要性大小的配水子模型,以及不同月份缺水对工业生产和主要粮食作物产量影响的定量评价子模模型,实例计算表明计划用水管理模型预期管理效果较好,具有推广应用价值。     

ET管理在农业用水规划中的应用

ET是水资源最主要的消耗量,基于ET的水资源管理实现了由传统的"供水管理"向"需水管理"的真正转变.阐述了ET分类及其实用的确定方法,针对ET管理在农业用水规划和管理中应用,详细介绍了其应用步骤,并以成安县的应用实例,说明ET管理在资源型缺水地区农田灌溉用水管理中成效显著.     

水生生物水质基准研究进展及建立我国氨氮水质基准的探讨

水质基准是制定水质标准限值的重要依据,是科学的水质管理体系的重要组成部分。通过对国内外水生生物水质基准制定方法进行概述,综合分析了评价因子法、毒性百分数排序法、物种敏感度分布法的特点,在此基础上对基准制定方法的发展趋势进行判断。结合国外研究进展和我国实际情况,对我国氨氮水质基准的建立进行探讨,提出在不同毒性数据积累的情况下应当结合方法学特点,采用不同的方法以相对保守的方式制定我国的氨氮水质基准。     

水资源管理系统区间数属性联系贴近度评价

针对水资源管理系统区间数多属性决策评价问题,借鉴集对分析理论,采用区间数属性联系贴近度评价方法,通过引进系统范数的概念进行属性区间数指标决策矩阵规范化处理,将区间数决策矩阵转化为联系数加权决策矩阵,获得水资源管理系统方案评价的计算方法,并通过实例对该方法的有效性和实用性进行验证,取得了较为满意的结果。     

Strategic Water Resources Planning: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Many agrarian countries have heavily invested in large-scale water projects to promote their agricultural development. There have been, however, few attempts to devise strategic water resources planning accounting for the macroeconomic linkages ofagriculture. This article presents such a strategic water resourcesplanning framework for Bangladesh. First, a dynamic costminimization model is solved to compute the optimal investmentneeded in various water projects such that an agricultural growthtarget can be met. Next, the minimum cost solution is againderived accounting for the macroeconomic linkages of agriculture,which, under different macroeconomic scenarios, results innoticeably different policy implications for optimal waterplanning. These results suggest that the traditional sectoralapproaches of planning water investment projects are generallyinconsistent with the broader macroeconomic reality of Bangladesh.     

关于节水技术措施实施准则的初步探讨

从地域环境着眼,客观地分析某项节水技术及措施的有效性,比较软技术和硬(工程)措施的优缺点,从而提出避免背水一战因水致宜发展适应农业,节水软技术应优先发展,坚持按自然、市场、经济和社会等四个基本规律办事的工程技术投资原则以及实施抗旱与灌溉分区等观点。     

阜蒙县水资源开发利用潜力及效果

根据阜蒙县水资源分布特点、区域水资源状况,进行了水资源现状平衡分析及水资源开发利用潜力预测,提出了资源利用的途径。     

Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and Sensitivity Analysis for Shadow Price of Water Resource in China

A novel dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on National Water Resource Input Holding Output Table is proposed to calculate the Shadow Price of water resource in China. Unlike previous approaches, the dynamic Shadow Price of water resource is largely based on the scarcity extent and can reflect the marginal long-term value in the balanced growth path of China. Firstly, the basic concepts of dynamic Input Output analysis and Turnpike Theory are reviewed. Then, Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) is elaborated to calculate the Shadow Price, including the definition and computer-based algorithm. Furthermore, Shadow Price of water resource in China from 1949 to 2050 is calculated based on the DCGE. Also the sensitivity analysis of the DCGE for Shadow Price of water resource in China is presented. Dynamic Shadow Price of water resource has two meanings for China government: (1) Project evaluation. Every large-scale project in China must have national economic evaluation and the dynamic Shadow Price is prerequisite for national economic evaluation. (2) Market price of water resource. A lesson from this paper is that Shadow Price of water resource in domestic market of China should be rewritten according to the dynamic Shadow Price. In addition, the parallel computations approach could also be used to solve these problems in different countries or for different natural resources. This work was supported in part by NSFC (No. 70472074), NSFC (No. 70131002), NSFC (No. 60474063) and in part by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.     

防洪调度及水资源管理数据挖掘系统研究

采用美国SAS数据挖掘软件,在对我国防洪调度及水资源管理需求详尽分析的基础上,探索了数据挖掘技术在防洪调度及水资源管理方面的应用理论、方法及技术;研究了商品化数据挖掘软件与防洪调度及水资源管理需求相结合的具体方法,建立了太湖流域和中央节点的防洪调度和水资源管理数据仓库系统;分析研究了数据应用的基本模式,提出了数据挖掘的主题,运用SAS数据挖掘套件建立了基于数据仓库的防洪调度及水资源管理数据挖掘系统。     

城市新区水利规划建设现状及对策分析

近年来,南京市各类开发园区得以迅速发展,但同时也常面临洪涝灾害的威胁。通过对南京市各类开发园区及新城区的水利规划及建设现状分析,提出开发园区水利建设存在的一系列问题,包括水利规划不完善、防洪工程建设相对落后、排涝工程布局不合理等。针对开发园区存在问题进行了分析,并根据其产生原因提出相应的对策建议。     

抽样调查在水利规划中的应用

本文对农村社会经济资料的抽样调查进行了定量分析,得出在水利规划中为了弥补全面搜集规划资料的困难。引进国际先进的抽样调查方案,可以取得较好的规划效果。     

德州市水资源特点分析

德州市地处渤海凹陷的偏南部,水资源由降水、地表水,地下水三部分组成。本文通过对德州市1956年~2004年水资源情况的总结分析,得出了德州市水资源总量及开发利用情况,指出了德州市水资源变化发展情势,为德州市水资源研究、开发利用提供了详实依据。     

引水工程运行管理决策支持系统设计与实现

引水工程是我国水资源战略调配的重要举措,在我国水资源调配已经或将发挥重要作用,引水工程的信息化建设将促进和提高引水工程运行管理水平。在分析引水工程特点及其运行管理需求的基础上,应用先进的信息采集、通信网络、空间和计算机控制处理技术,对引水工程运行调度管理决策支持系统进行分析设计,以吉林省引嫩入白引水工程为例,进行应用实践。通过应用表明,该系统运行稳定,界面友好,提升了引水工程水利信息化水平,充分发挥了引水工程的效益。