流域水权初始配置模型研究

根据公平、有效及可持续发展的原则,分析影响水权初始分配的主要因素,构建水权初始分配的层次结构图,采用多目标半结构性模糊优选模型研究流域水权初始分配,其研究成果被应用于汉江流域.     

宁夏引黄灌区不同型式衬砌渠道水权转换价格计算探讨

分别对宁夏引黄灌区干、支、斗渠单位长度的渗漏量公式和渠道的可转换水权进行分析,并提出宁夏引黄灌区渠道工程可转换水权计算公式。对黄河水权转换工程的费用构成进行分析,当水权转换年限为25年时,得到宁夏引黄灌区水权转换价格计算公式,选取典型的渠道运用价格计算公式计算不同衬砌型式的水权转换价格,从干渠到斗渠水权转换价格不断提高。     

PJM日前市场电价的统计分析

对市场电价的统计分析有助于掌握电价的分布规律，并为发电厂投资、市场风险评估等研究提供依据。文中基于美国PJM（Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland）日前市场的实际数据，采用K-S（Kolmogorov-Smirnove）检验法对电价的统计性质进行了验证，得出如下结论:首先，PJM日前市场的年电价服从对数正态分布;其次，以负荷高低水平将电价进行分类，在中高等负荷时段，电价服从对数正态分布，而低负荷时段电价服从正态分布;最后，在不同负荷的情形下，负荷与其对应电价的均值、标准差之间存在着一种近似的线性关系。     

Fundamentals Determining Prices and Activities in the Market for Water Allocations

This paper analyses prices paid and volumes traded in the market for water allocations to provide insight into which factors drive activities in that market. While factors such as commodity prices, supply and demand as well as macroeconomic indicators have had an influence on price and volume traded, the main determinants during the study period have been the level of seasonal allocation, rainfall and evaporation. During this period of relative water scarcity, irrigators with water-dependent capital assets such as dairy and horticultural farmers have been willing to pay increasing water prices relative to commodity prices in order to protect these long-term investments and stay in business.     

Water Right Prices in the Rio Grande: Analysis and Policy Implications

Climate change, water supply limits, growing environmental values of water and worldwide population growth continue to raise the scarcity of water. These challenges have intensified the transfer of water from farms to cities. Water right transfers are an important international institution to stretch water supplies. In North America's Rio Grande Basin water right transfers are an especially important institution for meeting the growth in urban demands. Despite the importance of water right transfers as a social institution, sellers face uncertainty on the asking price, while buyers face similar uncertainty on the offer price. Weak information on water right prices stymies water transfers while limiting the future resilience of water transfers to address climate change and the need to cope with change in water supplies and demands. This paper describes the development of a database on water right prices using observed transactions from 1980 to 2007. An empirical model was developed using the data to identify important factors influencing those prices. Five water right price predictors were found to be significant: total regional urban water use, priority date of the water right, quantity of water rights offered for sale, regional reservoir storage volume, and regional farm income. Depending on the future status of food scarcity and urban water conservation programmes, water right prices in the basin could grow from zero to 27% over 2010–2020.     

经济波动与建筑材料价格相关性分析

经济波动与建筑材料价格的波动存在着一定的相关性,往往经济的增长超前于材料价格的上涨,而材料价格的回落却超前于经济的滑落,不同材料由于各自的特性,与经济波动表现了不同程度的相关关系,而且上涨幅度与回落方式也不同。     

城市水价改革的经济学思考

水的问题已成为困扰着我国经济社会可持续发展的重大问题,而城市水价的问题是解决合理用水以及防止浪费的核心,近几年对城市水价的改革并没有真正达到水价改革与市场价格体制改革同步。针对这一问题,从经济学角度,运用经济学要素分配理论对城市水价以及一些水价的定价方式进行了初步探讨,以期城市用水更加合理化。     

Estimating the Potential Water Transfer Prices Using Price Endogenous Theory

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the potential market price for the transfer of water among sectors in the Northern Taiwan region. This region is the major semiconductor and information technology product manufacturing area in Taiwan and plays an important role in contributing to domestic GDP. To this end, a regional water endogenous price economic model using a nonlinear programming approach is adopted in which the activity of transferring water from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector in a water market is taken into consideration. In addition, the potential water transfer price is estimated using this empirical model under the assumption of social welfare maximization. The scenario results prove that the activity of transferring water from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector could improve the benefits both in the water market and the agricultural sector.     

Fundamentals Determining Prices in the Market for Water Entitlements: An Australian Case Study

Prices paid in the market for water entitlements within the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District in Australia have increased by 15% p.a. over the 10-year period from 1993 to 2003. This is less than half the increase that has taken place in the market for water allocations during the same period. Regression analyses show very few relationships between commodity prices and prices of water entitlements, with only wine grape prices having a significant positive influence on price. Correlation analyses show strong negative correlations between commodity prices and the price of water entitlements, especially with dairy products, which is the main high value industry within the district. The major factors influencing the price of water entitlements are: the price of water in the allocation market, the level of seasonal allocation, vine grape prices and interest rates. There is some evidence to suggest that high value producers have been willing to pay increasing prices as supply has declined in order to protect their long-term investments in permanent plantings and other capital investments such as dairy equipment and cattle. The negative correlation with dairy prices indicates that dairy farmers have had to accepted to pay higher prices despite a relative fall in commodity prices; the increase in the price of water has therefore come out of irrigators' profit margins and not out of increased income.     

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Hydropower represents the world’s largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.     

Evaluating and Predicting Shadow Prices of Water Resources in China and Its Nine Major River Basins

Water pricing plays a crucial role in water resources management. Water shadow price is an important reference in setting water price. It was said that in practice it is almost impossible to obtain water shadow price by solving a linear programming model. In this paper we use water conservancy economy input-occupancy-output tables of the nine Chinese major river basins, and combining input–output analysis method with linear programming method we develop a linear programming model with restrictions on the final demand, total output, trade balance and water availability. We estimate the water shadow prices for industrial water and productive water for the nine Chinese major river basins in 1999 and compared these results with the real industrial water price in China in 1999. Then, for operational purposes and to estimate the shadow prices of industrial water and productive water more easily, and using a Gauss–Newton nonlinear simulation method, we present two nonlinear models that relate the ratio of the volume of water used to the total water resources volume with the shadow prices to predict shadow prices of industrial water and productive water in 2020 and 2030 in China and its nine major river basins.     

重大水旱灾害对粮食价格的影响研究

本文根据近500年来发生的重大水旱灾害年份的有关资料，分析研究了重大水平灾害导致粮食变动的情况，与水平灾害程度、救济方法、交通运输及抗灾能力等有密切关系。     

推进水价改革 促进水资源高效利用

针对目前国内水资源和供水现状情况,提出几点相应建议:首先是培育和发展水市场,正规水市场的建立对于推进水价改革和水价经济杠杆作用的发挥十分重要,引入私有企业可以加强竞争,提高供水企业运行效率;其次是不同用户类型采用不同的水价形式;最后是加强节水宣传,提高水价改革的执行力。     

方溪水库工程水价及贷款能力测算分析

方溪水库是一座以供水为主、结合防洪,兼顾灌溉、发电等综合利用的水利工程,工程静态总投资115 046万元。通过对该工程供水水价和贷款能力的测算、分析,提出合理的工程筹资方案。     

应用VAR模型分析电力期货与现货价格关系

电力期货是防范、转移电力现货市场价格风险的有效工具。目前世界上先进行电力市场化改革的国家都纷纷建立起了电力期货市场。文中基于向量自回归（VAR）模型,通过协整检验、因果检验、方差分解等计量经济学方法,结合北欧电力期货交易数据,对电力期货与现货价格的关系进行研究。结果显示,电力期货与现货价格之间存在显著的长期均衡关系,变化趋势一致且逐渐趋于收敛,同时,电力期货对现货的引导关系远大于现货对期货的引导关系,期货市场在价格发现中起主导作用。     

The Performance of Water Service Industry Stock Prices and Sensitivity to Highly Publicized Contract Failures

Abstract

The water service industry has aggressively pursued contracts for the management or ownership of urban water utilities around the world. The industry has performed very well in terms of stock prices of publicly traded firms in comparison with the well-known stock price averages. However, there have been some widely publicized contract failures, the most dramatic being the cases of Cochabamba, Bolivia (2000) and Atlanta, Georgia, USA (2003). Such failures could discourage investment in the industry by depressing stock prices. A stock price index for a set of prominent firms is constructed that shows the highly favorable long term trend of WSI prices relative to the standard indexes. Then by using more formal “event analysis”, the study finds that there were no significant negative effects of the unfavorable events on the stock prices of the WSI sample. The formal announcements of these prominent contract cancellations apparently contained no surprises and little new information of industry-wide relevance because the industry was aware of the developing situations. Large firms in this risky industry build the expectation of occasional (even spectacular) failures into their company-wide plans.     

土石坝工程堆石料开采和运输补充定额单价分析

根据瀑布沟水电站设计所选用的土石坝堆石料开采、运输设备和填筑强度，采用理论分析与工程实际调研资料相结合的方法，分析计算了堆石料填筑工程施工中堆石料开采和运输两大主要工序的设备效率、人员配置、工序台时产量、材料消耗及工时消耗等，并阐述了编制堆石料填筑单价补充定额的过程、方法和成果。     

黄河下游基建工程采用实物量法编制标价初探

实物量法编制工程造价在国际上已被普遍采用，它与定额法的不同之处，就在于它解决了地域差别，创新施工技术与传统技术的差别以及施工方案与标价脱节的矛盾，实一了地域，技术与价格的统一。通过黄河下游某堤防加高培厚工程运用实物量法的实例，论证了黄河下游基建基建工程采用实物量法的可行性，表明实物量法不仅可以做到“因地制宜、，“量体裁衣”，更重要的一点是它可以有效地控制工程投资。     

生物预处理技术在嘉兴地区给水厂的应用比较

对嘉兴地区主要给水厂近年来应用立体弹性填料、LT型悬浮球填料、YS型悬浮填料、卵石填料等的生物预处理工艺从填料及配套设施、工艺运行参数、运行效果、成本等方面进行了比较.认为弹性填料生物预处理更适用于低浊(50 NTU以下)、低氨氮(1.5 mg/L以下)原水,LT型悬浮球填料生物预处理适用于低中浊(100 NTU以下)、低中氨氮(2.5 mg/L以下)原水,YS型悬浮填料生物预处理及"SAF"滤池对低浊、中高氨氮(2.5 mg/L以上)原水有较好的适应性.最后探讨了弹性填料存在的短流、积泥,悬浮填料存在的部分填料流化不均匀,富氧的生物工艺单元内水生动物泛滥等问题.     

无资料流域水文预报(PUB计划)研究进展

无资料流域水文预报,简称为PUB(Predictions in Ungaugecl Basins),从2003年7月开始成为国际水文科学学会新的国际水文十年计划主题．文中首先简述了PUB计划的主要研究内容,然后回顾了国际和国内已有的PUB研究进展,最后展望了对水文学发展有重要意义的几个PUB前沿研究,包括不确定性研究、对水循环各个环节因素的预报和对无资料流域水文过程的预报。