Marriage-induced homeownership as a driver of housing booms: evidence from Hong Kong

Abstract

Buying a home for marriage is customary in many societies. Traditionally, therefore, young couples getting married is a key driver of demand for homeownership. Yet the idea of marriage-induced demand for homeownership is a relatively underexplored component of housing price change. We examine the role of marriage-induced demand for homeownership in Hong Kong, a relatively self-contained housing market with fewer options for migration than most large cities. We use an instrumental variable strategy to test the hypothesis that more unmarried individuals at the prime age for marriage increases housing prices. We find that an additional one thousand marriage-aged but unmarried individuals leads to a seven per cent increase in housing prices. These findings confirm the importance of demographic factors such as cohort size and marriage rates on housing price projections, housing needs assessments, and housing policy.     

Age differentiation in the effect of household situation on first-time homeownership

To become a homeowner, it is necessary tohave sufficient resources and stability in thehousehold situation. In existing studies,household type is often used as a proxy forlevel of stability. Household types with a highlevel of commitment (married couples withoutand with children) are regarded as stablehouseholds, and singles and cohabitors as lessstable households. In this paper, it is arguedthat stability can be reached not only bymaking a commitment, but also by growing older.Increasing age brings stability into the livesof singles and cohabitors. Age also matters forthe structure of resources and costs ofdifferent household types. From a combinationof theory on age and theory on homeownership inthe life course, five hypotheses are derived.They are tested on retrospective data by usingdiscrete-time event-history analysis. From amodel with interaction effects, it can be seenwhether the probability of becoming a homeownerdiffers between household types in differentage groups. The results show that marriedcouples have the highest probability ofbecoming homeowners in age group 18–24, whereasthe probability is highest for cohabitors inage group 25–29, and in age group 30–34 forsingles. This supports the idea that peoplebecome homeowners either when they make acommitment, or when stability is createdthrough the passage of time in a lesscommitting household type.     

Turkish and Moroccan couples and their first steps on the Dutch housing market: Co-residence or independence?

The start of the housing career of Turkish andMoroccan married couples in the Netherlandsoften differs from the common experience ofnative Dutch couples. Many Turkish and Moroccancouples live with family, friends, orco-ethnics during the first years of theirjoint housing careers. It seems obvious torelate this to the cultural values brought fromthe mother country. It is however noteworthythat, in the Netherlands, Turks co-residemarkedly more often with family or friends thanMoroccans, while there is no substantialcultural difference between these two countriesof origin in this respect. It should,therefore, be stressed that co-residence isinfluenced not only by cultural preferences butalso by other factors, such as opportunitiesfor co-residence and housing marketconstraints.     

Housing market dualization: linking insider–outsider divides in employment and housing outcomes

Abstract

Past decades of economic growth, relatively widespread employment security and expanding mortgage markets promoted growing homeownership. Recent years have witnessed this growth undercut across advanced economies, evidenced by a rise in other tenures and increasing housing precarity. Studies have shown that these housing outcomes follow more fundamental changes in labour markets. By adapting the established concept of labour market dualization to housing, this paper examines how employment and housing positions are intertwined under late capitalism, and how their relationship has changed through the Global Financial Crisis. Examining the salient case of the Netherlands through household-level data from the LISS panel, we demonstrate that being a labour market ‘outsider’ vastly increases the likelihood of being an ‘outsider’ across housing market dimensions, in terms of housing equity, affordability and prospective asset accumulation. Comparing housing and labour dualization over 2008 and 2016, we further show that the share of multiply disadvantaged households has grown substantially, both among labour market insiders and outsiders.     

Parental marital dissolution and the intergenerational transmission of homeownership

Abstract

Children of homeowners are more likely to enter homeownership than are children whose parents rent. We investigate whether this association is dependent on parental divorce, focusing on parental assistance as a conduit of intergenerational transmission. Event history analyses of data for England and Wales from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) show that the intergenerational transmission of homeownership is stronger for children of divorced parents compared with children of married parents. Such an effect may arise from two channels: (1) children of divorced parents are more in need of parental assistance due to socio-economic disadvantages associated with parental divorce; and (2) compared with married parents, divorced homeowning parents (mothers) rely more on housing wealth, rather than financial wealth, for assisting children. Findings support both explanations. Children of divorced parents are furthermore less likely to co-reside. We find limited evidence that when they do, co-residence is less conductive to homeownership compared with children from married parents.     

Icelandic boom and bust: immigration and the housing market

The housing market boom in Iceland in 2004–2007 was driven by international and domestic developments. A simple demand and supply model is fitted to data through the recent boom–bust period. The price equation (demand) is improved by including net immigration as an explanatory variable showing that demographic factors, in addition to mortgage market restructuring, help in explaining swings in the housing market. Evidence of a house price bubble is no longer detected when accounting for the effects of immigration with 1 per cent net immigration yielding a 4–6 per cent rise in house prices. Accuracy in forecasting house price developments is improved by accounting for housing investment behaviour in a separate (supply) equation. The sharp fall in housing investment in 2009 cannot, however, be modelled without the introduction of a dummy variable, accounting for the sudden stop in financing as the Icelandic banking sector failed in late 2008.     

Intergenerational support for autonomous living in a post-socialist housing market: homes,meanings and practices

Abstract

This paper explores housing trajectories of young adults and practices of intergenerational support in Romania drawing on narratives of a group of people aged 25–39 living (quasi-) autonomously in Bucharest, and those of kin that support them. It describes three housing arrangements in which family (parental) resources and property play an important role, and argues that in this context of high interdependence, unequal relationships develop between parents and adult children marked by professed entitlement on the part of children and controlling generosity on the part of parents. It shows how interdependent practices of homemaking and material support combine to shape housing trajectories and define the boundaries of ownership over homes that are shared, gifted or given in use within kin networks, sheltering young adults from the vagaries of the market.     

Regeneration of Dutch post-war urban districts: the role of housing associations

In the Netherlands the regeneration of post-war urban districts is closely intertwined with the role of housing associations. This is hardly surprising, given that the housing associations have such a large share of the market (usually over 50%; sometimes nearly 100%) in many early post-war urban districts. This has caused a growing concentration of low-income households in those urban areas and a selective migration by middle- and high-income households from the city to the suburb. Official government policy on housing and urban renewal is directed at a redifferentiation of the urban housing stock. Specifically, the policy promotes more owner-occupation, larger and higher-quality homes, and a greater percentage of homes with a garden. This implies the demolition of social housing estates and selling social housing. The position of housing associations in the regeneration of Dutch post-war urban districts is somewhat enigmatic. On the one hand, national government is expecting them to take initiative and invest in urban renewal; on the other, government is urging them to cut down their market share. How are housing associations coping with this paradoxical challenge? And what are the current national policies about the position of housing associations? Aedes (the umbrella organisation of Dutch housing associations) and the Dutch Ministry of Housing have agreed upon the so-called great transition of housing associations. Here we explain and critique this great transition, which will hamper the current regeneration of Dutch urban districts. As an alternative we present the new transition.     

Multi‐family housing in the social rental sector and the changing Dutch housing market

The social rental sector has become a major segment of the housing market in the Netherlands (forming 44 per cent of the stock in 1988). Until recently, its management by non‐profit housing associations and municipalities posed no major problems: the stock was relatively new, the general housing shortage was severe, and middle‐income groups accounted for a substantial share of the tenants of social rental housing. This situation has changed; especially the older multi‐family housing in the cities has slipped into a lower position in the urban housing hierarchy, and lower‐income households predominate in this type of housing. At the same time, part of the older stock is in need of renovation. This article reports on interviews with managers of non‐profit housing associations about their strategies to keep the housing in good shape and to find tenants. It also reports on interviews with tenants in newly renovated housing complexes.     

Equilibrium between interest payments and income in the housing market

The literature on housing markets suggests that house prices in almost all western economies can be explained by short-run demand-oriented variables and a long-run term. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run fluctuations, which are based on recent price developments (shocks), occur due to market imperfection, while over the long term, causality with such fundamentals as income will recover. Nonetheless, many of the interesting questions in housing economics concern adjustments toward equilibrium. This paper seeks to identify a long-run equilibrium between interest payments and household income (interest-to-income ratio) instead of between house prices and income (price-to-income ratio).

The search for the most eco-efficient strategies for sustainable housing construction; Dutch lessons

Although sustainability plays anincreasingly important role in common buildingpractice, there is very little known about theenvironmental benefits of sustainable housingconstruction. This paper presents a frameworkfor the search for the most eco-efficientstrategies for sustainable housing constructionand discusses the environmental benefits ofDutch sustainable housing construction. Twoquestions are answered: which goals regardingthe environmental benefits of Dutch sustainablehousing construction are currently feasible andwhat are the most eco-efficient strategies tofurther improve the environmental performanceof housing? Environmental benefits arecalculated by means of sets of measurescomposed by confronting priorities forreduction of the environmental impacts ofhouses with seven strategies for sustainablehousing construction. For the calculationsEco-Quantum is used. A traditionally builtterraced house is used as a reference point. Itturns out that goals such as `Factor 4' or`Factor 20' are still far from being achievedand that the prolongation of life spans andimprovement of reusability are the mosteco-efficient strategies. However, otherstrategies also need to be applied, becausethese two strategies carry large uncertainties.Sustainable housing construction may not beenough in itself to meet very high targets.Reflection on our way of living is alsorequired.     

Dialectics of lead: fifty years of Dutch euthanasia and its lessons

Worldwide the Netherlands has the broadest experience with organizing voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide. Roughly, three phases may be distinguished: in 1968–1985 euthanasia was vividly debated but, as it was illegal, it was at best tolerated. Since 1985, beginning with a verdict of the Supreme Court, euthanasia became officially tolerated and gradually legalized in 2002, after which the numbers stabilized until 2006. The onset of the third phase was in 2007. Since that year, the numbers tripled, new pathologies were accepted as a reason for euthanasia, the number of people with a long life expectancy increased, and mobile euthanizing teams were established that provide euthanasia without a prior doctor-patient relationship. These developments were made possible by a combination of cultural developments, the absence of restrictive legal norms, and a far reaching mandate of the Review Committees.     

“超级”之后 ——荷兰建筑再观察

荷兰作为建筑设计及创意产业强国,已形成了长期的世界性影响。这一切与荷兰的自然地理与社会历史有着密切的关联。在21世纪之初荷兰建筑被誉为超级荷兰之后,荷兰建筑与建筑师在近20年时间里不断调整变化,以更为广泛的介入性延展至社会与自然中的多个领域。     

Inequalities in the transition to homeownership among young people in Scotland

Abstract

Homeownership levels among young adults in the UK are declining. This paper compares youth transitions to homeownership in Scotland during the 1990s and 2000s by examining the roles of both personal and parental socio-economic characteristics and local house prices. It demonstrates demographic diversity among young people, with gender and partnership status interacting to shape their transitions to homeownership. The findings reveal that, although single women are less likely than single men to become homeowners, women are more likely to make the transition if they live with a partner. For all young adults, patterns of advantage and disadvantage are defined by personal resources and parental background. While many of these inequalities have persisted over time, the distance between the most and least advantaged has widened, new inequalities have emerged and local housing markets have come to play a greater role for some.     

Mainport and corridor: exploring the mobilizing capacities of Dutch spatial concepts

Spatial concepts play a major role in planning practices all over the world. Some of them rise to the surface and then disappear, others remain thriving for a long time, becoming mobilized to shape politics, public policy and projects. By analysing two important spatial concepts in Dutch planning practice (mainport and corridor), this paper aims to explore the mobilizing capacities of new spatial concepts. The paper argues that the success of spatial concepts in the political arena depends on the interplay of two elements: (1) the concept's meaning, which effectively imagines the spatial challenge, and (2) the presence of a powerful coalition that uses this concept to name, frame and claim. The more meanings a concept accumulates, the more support it attracts. However, as this paper shows, this only holds if a major condition is being met: that the different meanings of the concept do not mutually conflict or contradict. This article presents a method by which to analyse the concept's meanings and to track conceptual changes.     

House prices and long-term equilibrium in the regulated market of the Netherlands

This paper establishes a simple affordability model that implicitly incorporates the major Dutch market features to elucidate long-run house prices under a regulatory environment. The results reveal a long-run relationship for house prices under strict regulations. The association among house prices, income, interest rates, and inflation is verified using an aggregated dataset. In the long-run, incomes and interest rates function as the two prime forces driving price dynamics, whereas the role of inflation is limited.     

The incomplete privatization of the Dutch housing market: Exploding house prices versus falling house-building output

This paper addresses the coordination problems in the liberalized housing market in the Netherlands during the 1990–2004 period. In particular, the mismatch between the explosion in house prices and the stagnation in house-building activities during the past six years is under investigation. It is argued that there is still a marked discrepancy between the language used in the policy discourse and the supply and demand situation on the Dutch housing market. One could argue that the Dutch government implemented a double-hearted, incomplete privatization. As a result of the mismatch between actual housing policy and market developments, output is stagnating and the housing shortage is growing sharply. The closing section presents some possible means to overcome these problems.     

Transformations of Planning Rationales: Changing Spaces for Governance in Recent Dutch National Planning

Dutch national planning has acquired an international reputation because it provides strong planning guidance while simultaneously being responsive to the particular spatial and political circumstances of different regions and areas. Spatial concepts, like the Randstad, are important vehicles for sustaining this approach. Such concepts incorporate select spatial planning rationales that justify operational decisions. Concepts can, however, also be ambiguous, and this can allow for different interpretations and deliberations about how guidance should take effect in different situations. In this paper we assess the degree of ambiguity contained in concepts outlined in Dutch national plans between 1988 and 2012. By focusing on the dimensions of spatial concepts, and the room for interpretation these create, we demonstrate how concepts were modified to accommodate a shifting appreciation of deliberation and, as a result, collaboration and governance. On a theoretical level, we propose a method that analyses in detail the ambiguity (“fuzzyness” or “softness”) of spatial concepts. We argue that such sophisticated understandings contribute to explaining the variety of governance responses that these geographies produce in practice. On an empirical level we seek to increase understanding of change in recent Dutch national planning.