Adaptation to Climate Change

Problem: Even if significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are achieved, some amount of climate change appears to be inevitable. Local, regional, state, and federal planning and regulation should begin to address how to adapt to these changes.

Purpose: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, using California as a case study. We examine the institutional and regulatory challenges and tradeoffs that climate change poses in six particularly vulnerable areas: water resources, electricity, coastal resources, air quality, public health, and ecosystem resources. We discuss obstacles to adaptation planning and successes overcoming these barriers, and suggest how planning can incorporate adaptation.

Methods: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, drawing on our recent research on California's experience and related literature. We summarize the results of six studies that draw on quantitative and qualitative information gathered through surveys, interviews, and literature review.

Results and conclusions: Planners should use forward-looking climate data that include higher water and air temperatures, sea-level rise, and increased numbers of extreme events like heat waves, floods, and wildfires when making decisions about future development, infrastructure investments, open-space protection, and disaster preparedness. Climate change will exacerbate conflicts between goals for economic development, habitat protection, and public safety, requiring stronger interagency coordination and new laws and regulations.

Takeaway for practice: Local and regional planners can help society adapt to a changing climate by using the best available science, deciding on goals and early actions, locating relevant partners, identifying and eliminating regulatory barriers, and encouraging the introduction of new state mandates and guidelines.

Research support: Partial support for this research was provided by Pacific Gas and Electric, The Nature Conservancy, and Next 10.     

基于国际经验的中国国家公园气候 变化应对路径

国家公园等自然保护地既是气候变化影响的敏感区,也是减缓气候变化的重要载体。纵观世界上多个国家气候变化应对历程发现,国家公园等自然保护地是应对气候变化的先行者与探索者。而面对气候变化的重要议题,中国国家公园尚处于初步研究阶段,缺乏系统的应对战略。选取国家公园气候变化应对开展较早、体系完善及具有特色的6个国家和地区,梳理其战略、政策与实践经验,从科研、减缓、适应和教育4个方面总结其应对途径,并提出中国国家公园气候变化应对的4条路径：充分凝结共识,鼓励多方参与;夯实科研基础,形成前沿基地;战略规划指导,分级分区落实;适应减缓并重,提升气候能力。     

应对气候变化的公共空间设计

【目的】在过去几十年,气候变化达到了前所未有的水平。因此,需要加快步伐,以系统性和可持续的方式为即将到来的变化做好准备。曼谷的快速城市化导致绿地和水系减少,这加剧了洪水的威胁,继而使城市远离了能应对气候变化问题的资源。因此,建议结合风景园林知识中传统的适应性措施与基于自然的解决方案,以应对日益增加的挑战。【方法/过程】至关重要的是,城市重视绿色基础设施（GI）和绿色空间的投资,以有效地从自然中获益。利用废弃土地开发绿色空间成为解决城市问题的机会。通过we!park 平台,将废弃空间开发成公共绿地,其重点是增加使用的机会,而不仅仅是增加绿地的面积。设计过程涉及所有相关部门的利益相关者,以共同实现高质量和可持续的绿色公共空间。【结果/结论】绿地建设不需要占用大量的土地,但其应具备可达性和安全性。公众参与设计过程能使绿地更好地响应社区需求,同时也使绿地更加易于维护。绿地建设是城市应对气候变化的关键部分。废弃区域可成为发展的机遇;通过协作、知识、资金和政策的结合来创造商机,促进健康和福祉,保护环境。     

Explaining Progress in Climate Adaptation Planning Across 156 U.S. Municipalities

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Cities are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change and taking steps to adapt to current and future natural hazard risks. Research on these efforts has identified numerous barriers to climate adaptation planning, but has not yet systematically evaluated the relative importance of different constraints for a large number of diverse cities. We draw on responses from 156 U.S. cities that participated in a 2011 global survey on local adaptation planning, 60% of which are planning for climate change. We use logistic regression analysis to assess the significance of 13 indicators measuring political leadership, fiscal and administrative resources, ability to obtain and communicate climate information, and state policies in predicting the status of adaptation planning. In keeping with the literature, we find that greater local elected officials’ commitment, higher municipal expenditures per capita, and an awareness that the climate is already changing are associated with cities engaging in adaptation planning. The presence of state policies on climate adaptation is surprisingly not a statistically significant predictor, suggesting that current policies are not yet strong enough to increase local adaptation planning. However, the model's sampling bias toward larger and more environmentally progressive cities may mask the predictive power of state policies and other indicators.

Takeaway for practice: State governments have an opportunity to increase local political commitment by integrating requirements for climate-risk evaluations into existing funding streams and investment plans. Regional planning entities also can help overcome the lack of local fiscal capacity and political support by facilitating the exchange of information, pooling and channeling resources, and providing technical assistance to local planners.     

应对气候变化和极端天气事件的适应性规划

鉴于气候变化和极端天气事件频发对我国的影响,本文介绍了应对气候变化事件的适应性规划研究及其对我国的借鉴意义。首先,总结了国外尤其是美国气候变化适应性规划研究的现状及其政府规划部门采取的适应性规划和措施。其次,讨论了适应性规划研究的内容和整体框架,概括了国外适应性规划的理论和研究方法。同时,从理论方法、方案实施和法律规章等方面分析了适应性规划遇到的问题和挑战。本文旨在探讨气候变化的适应性规划研究的必要性和研究框架,以引起学术、政府和民间对适应性规划研究的重视,为我国更好地应对未来气候变化的影响打下基础。     

德国景观规划应对气候变化策略

气候变化导致生态系统、城市生产生活发生巨大变化，给人类的生存和活动带来了负面影响，而合理的景观规划可以减缓气候变化，使人居环境更好地适应气候变化及其影响。通过文献梳理，剖析气候变化对景观规划提出的新要求，梳理德国景观规划针对气候变化的因应策略。德国景观规划在面对气候变化的不确定性、直接与间接影响时坚持生态优先，通过情景假设、监测更新等机制灵活应对气候变化，及时调整规划内容，综合考虑气候变化的各方面影响，确定应对措施。德国景观规划编制、调整、实施等方面经验对气候变化背景下中国景观规划的良性发展具有一定指导意义。     

气候变化、碳排放与低碳城市规划研究进展

气候变化涉及的科学问题已越来越关注人类活动的影响,碳排放成为影响全球气候增温的主要因素.国内外研究发现,碳排放与城市化过程相交织,低碳城市遂成为遏制全球增温的首要选择.我国正处在经济快速增长、城市化加速、碳排放日益增加和向社会主义市场经济转型的时期,低碳城市规划则是我国低碳城市发展的关键技术之一.笔者论述了气候变化、碳排放与城市化的关系,从理论研究、行动计划两方面进行低碳城市规划研究进展的综述.     

基于生态系统的适应与减灾理论在国外城市气候规划中的实践研究

随着气候变化问题日益凸显,应对气候变化已成为城市可持续发展的关键.在此背景下,基于生态系统的适应(EbA)与基于生态系统的减灾(Eco-DRR)理论逐渐产生并受到关注.当前EbA与Eco-DRR作为新兴概念,在国外的生态、气候变化、城市设计等领域的研究方兴未艾,其概念、内涵等理论内容已逐步成形并走向实践研究;而国内对E...     

气候变化背景下绿色基础设施的研究进展与热点前沿

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最紧迫挑战之一。绿色基础设施作为自然生命支持系统,是应对气候变化风险的重要措施。从Web of Science核心数据库中选取2000—2020年发表的以“气候变化”和“绿色基础设施”为主题的文献,运用文献计量和数据可视化的方法对气候变化背景下绿色基础设施的研究进展和热点前沿进行分析。结果表明：1）相关研究经历了21世纪初期的缓慢发展后,2014年后进入快速上升阶段;2）相关研究通过初期的理论和实践提高了人们对绿色基础设施与气候变化关联度的认知,正在逐步向低碳化的减缓途径、韧性化的适应对策、效益化的可持续发展等多维度拓展;3）基于自然的解决方案（NbS）已经成为后续研究的重要领域。从统筹应对气候变化的新行动、拓宽人与气候关系的新认知、开辟持续低碳发展的新路径3个方面对未来研究进行展望,可为相关研究提供参考与借鉴。     

Barriers and Drivers of Planning for Climate Change Adaptation across Three Levels of Government in Canada

This study investigates the factors that constrain and enable adaptation planning for increasing flood risk in Canada. It uses a multiple-methods, multi-scalar approach to identify interconnected barriers and drivers that operate across municipal, provincial, and federal levels of government in Vancouver and Surrey, British Columbia. Through a policy content analysis (n = 54) and in-depth interviews with planners and other practitioners (n = 31), the study finds five major barriers to the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation: inadequate collaboration, absence of senior level political leadership, lack of public awareness, insufficient financial and staff capacity, and misalignment of policies within and between levels of government.     

气候变化下中国生态适应性设计在国土空间规划中的策略及本土化：定义、理念框架与解读

长期气候变化和极端天气事件给中国城乡可持续发展带来考验,而城乡地区自身的适应性规划体系不完善及生态环境恶化让城市适应性提升面临压力。因此,以"无悔"设计和可持续发展为基础的生态适应性(Ecological-based Adaptation,EbA)理念和措施逐渐引起国内学者的研究和关注。在收集和总结相关国际案例及应用的基础上,对Eb A理论、理念及研究进展进行深入分析和探讨。以生态适应性规划为着眼点,对分析的成果进行归纳,从研究和决策2个方面提出新的本地化解读、未来研究趋势及应用特点。同时结合中国开放空间规划体系的改革现状,提出适用于中国城乡可持续发展及韧性体系构建的本土化理念框架和相关建议。     

Evaluation of Networks of Plans and Vulnerability to Hazards and Climate Change: A Resilience Scorecard

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Land use planning is key to mitigating natural hazards and the effects of climate change. Communities adopt multiple plans that directly and indirectly address hazard mitigation; the integration of local plans can significantly affect future community vulnerability to hazards. We develop a resilience scorecard to assess the degree to which the network of local plans targets areas most prone to hazards and then evaluate the coordination of local plans and test it in Washington (NC), a community vulnerable to coastal floods and projected sea-level rise. We find that local plans are not fully consistent and do not always address the areas in a community most vulnerable to floods or sea level risks; moreover, some plans actually increase physical and social vulnerability to hazards. While these results indicate the validity of a resiliency scorecard, we were forced to use a narrow range of vulnerability indicators; better data would improve the process.

Takeaway for practice: Planners can assume a crucial role in improving planning for hazards by using the scorecard to identify conflicts among local plans, assessing whether local plans target areas most vulnerable to specific hazards. Planners can inform the public and decision makers about missed opportunities to improve local hazard mitigation planning. To support such important efforts, the U.S. Federal -Emergency Management Agency and other federal agencies should consider developing additional databases that are widely applicable and available.     

城市局部气候分区研究进展及其在城市规划中的应用

随着气象学、地理学、城乡规划学等多学科的交叉融合,以及新的数据信息、技术工具和算法手段的出现,分析和测度城市热岛效应并提出城市规划举措的视角和方法日趋多元,局部气候分区便是新兴的研究走向之一。文章通过相关文献的剖析,梳理了局部气候分区的发展历程、技术特点及应用领域等,以期对我国城市规划领域中的局部气候分区应用提供方法参考和经验借鉴。     

State and Municipal Climate Change Plans: The First Generation

Problem: Global warming has emerged as one of the new century's top planning challenges. But it is far from clear how state and local governments in the United States can best address climate change through planning.

Purpose: As of 2008, 29 states had prepared some sort of climate change plan, and more than 170 local governments had joined the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign that requires that a plan be developed. This article analyzes this first generation of climate change plans and seeks to assess the goals being set, the measures included or left out, issues surrounding implementation, and the basic strengths and weaknesses of state and local climate change planning to date.

Methods: I conducted this research by analyzing planning documents as well as interviewing state and local officials by telephone. I analyzed the plans of three types of governments: all states with planning documents on climate change; cities with populations of over 500,000 that are members of the CCP campaign; and selected smaller cities that are CCP members.

Results and conclusions: Most plans set emissions-reduction goals, establish emission inventories, green public sector operations, and recommend a range of other measures. Many recent plans have been developed through extensive stakeholder processes and present very detailed lists of recommendations with quantified emissions benefits. But emissions-reduction goals vary widely, many proposed actions are voluntary, few resources have been allocated, and implementation of most measures has not yet taken place. Most plans do not address adaptation to a changing climate. Officials see rapidly growing public awareness of the issue and general support for climate change planning, but reluctance to change personal behavior.

Takeaway for practice: Future climate change planning should (a) set goals that can adequately address the problem; (b) establish long-term planning frameworks in which progress toward these goals can be monitored on a regular basis and actions revised as needed; (c) include the full range of measures needed to reduce and adapt to climate change; (d) ensure implementation of recommended actions through commitment of resources, revised regulation, incentives for reducing emissions, and other means; and (e) develop strategies to deepen public awareness of the need for fundamental changes in behavior, for example regarding motor vehicle use.

Research support: This research was supported by the University of California, Davis Department of Environmental Design.     

基于情景规划的国家公园气候变化 应对：美国经验及对中国的启示

应对气候变化已成为全球共识,国家公园和自然保护地既是应对气候变化的重要阵地,也是受气候变化影响的敏感区域,但中国目前的研究和实践均还较薄弱,亟须借鉴域外经验。系统梳理了美国国家公园体系中,气候变化对自然、文化和社区的影响,概述了美国国家公园管理局的气候变化应对行动,指出情景规划是重要的气候变化应对工具。总结了美国国家公园在气候变化中开展情景规划的流程,提炼其规划特征,并以魔鬼塔国家纪念区为案例,详析其情景规划实践过程。在此基础上,总结了中国国家公园及体制试点区可能面临的气候变化风险,对比了情景规划与传统规划的区别,明确目前推广条件的欠缺,指出应逐步推广情景规划,并从实现科研储备、奠定实践基础、建立规划体系三方面提出可能的路径,对中国开展国家公园和自然保护地应对气候变化的相关工作具有借鉴意义。     

城市规划应对气候变化的适应发展战略——英国等国的经验

通过分析当今国际上以英国等国为例的城市规划应对气候变化的适应发展方法与策略,论述城市规划作为发展战略的重要专业工具,需要在规划的政策管理体系、规划编制的内容与方法、场地规划的基础设施适应设计三个方面进一步深化研究适应发展战略,以提高城市系统的恢复能力。     

气候变化背景下荷兰雨洪管理的实践探索

【目的】介绍3种多功能防洪策略——防护、储蓄和后退以及概述其在荷兰地区的综合应用。【方法】运用案例分析法分析多功能内陆堤坝、多功能海堤、可淹没广场以及蓄水停车场4种不同防洪实践的特点。【结果】这些实践都将防洪措施（如防洪堤和水库）与停车场、零售商铺、广场和公园等相结合。【结论】开展城市防洪设计时首先应了解当地的水文和生态情况,其次考虑当前的城市规划与发展现状,并结合交通和其他规划需求确定洪水管理的目标。     

绿色基础设施城市主义和气候变化

气候变化产生的环境影响：雨水污染加剧、城市洪水、海平面上升和城市热岛效应,已成为全球性问题。绿色基础设施（GI）越来越多地被推广为解决气候变化导致的环境恶化的“灵丹妙药”,尤其是在城市地区。城市本质上为高密度且不透水的空间,仅有少量的绿地来吸收预计增加的降雨量。位于沿海地区的城市容易受到海平面上升的影响,同时,大量的硬质表面会使空气温度的上升加剧。研究认为：可以利用绿色基础设施来改变当前的城市形态以构建应对环境影响的生态韧性。为了实现这一概念,必须将城市视为区域景观的一部分。采用一种基于流域的方法来探索如何用绿色基础设施改善气候变化对环境的影响,并使用推测性案例研究来证明这种方法,表明重新设计的城市形态可以优先安排绿色基础设施,而不会影响建筑项目和房地产投资回报。虽然该研究位于新西兰,但基于流域的方法也适用于中国的城市。     

新西兰自然保护地气候变化适应路径及其 启示

自然保护地既是受气候变化影响较为显著的客体,也是气候变化适应性应对的重要载体。在建设以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系并积极应对气候变化的国家战略背景下,中国亟须探索自然保护地适应气候变化的路径。以新西兰自然保护地为研究对象,经梳理分析,初步总结得出对我国自然保护地适应性应对的5点启示：建立气候变化适应性管理体系,提升治理能力;构建动态规划体系和方法,提高响应能力;全面强化生物多样性保护,增强抵御能力;重视游憩变化与设施安全,降低利用风险;加强科研监测力度与广度,夯实应对基础。     

气候连通性：概念辨析、研究方法与提升 路径

为适应气候变化,大量物种需要转移其活动范围,而物种能否成功转移其活动范围取决于气候连通性是否良好。如何保护并提升连通性以促进物种在气候变化下成功转移其活动范围,已成为生物多样性保护和自然保护地建设所需应对的重要问题。近年来,为针对性地探讨气候变化下的连通性问题,国际学界提出了气候连通性的概念并开展了一系列研究。首先对国际上提出的气候连通性和与之相关的气候速度、气候轨迹和气候梯度廊道等概念的定义和关系进行了梳理;其次从研究现状、数值模拟、指数评价和空间规划4个方面对气候连通性研究方法进行了总结;最后为实现在气候变化下有效保护中国生物多样性,提出了对中国气候连通性进行研究和提升的5项建议,包括开展气候连通性评估和气候驱动下物种迁移路径监测及模拟研究、探索自然保护地边界动态调整机制、制定国土尺度气候连通性保护和提升规划、落实大尺度气候连通性保护和生态廊道建设路径,以及加强国际合作保障跨国气候连通性。研究结果对明晰气候连通性的概念及开展相关研究和实践具有指导意义。