清流河流域场次洪水的退水特征及过程模拟

分析场次洪水的退水过程对水利工程的运行调度及水文预报方案的制定具有实际的应用价值。根据清流河流域102场暴雨洪水资料,系统分析了流域的退水过程特征,并采用指数型退水模型对退水过程进行了模拟。结果表明:清流河流域退水流量大小与场次暴雨洪水历时、洪峰大小等因素有关,起退流量介于12~303 m3/s;不同场次的退水系数介于0.01~0.0435之间,长历时暴雨洪水的退水系数相对较小;指数型退水模型能够较好地模拟退水过程。     

FFMS模型与HEC-HMS模型在暴雨洪水预报中的应用比较

针对小流域暴雨洪水预报难的问题,利用模块化小流域暴雨洪水预报FFMS(Flash Flood Modul Simulation System)模型和HEC-HMS(Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrological Model System)模型,以河南栾川、韩城及辽宁郝家店、梨庇峪4个山丘区小流域为例,对比分析了4个流域的暴雨洪水预报过程,以洪峰相对误差、峰现时间误差以及纳什系数等为评价准则,比较和分析了2个模型的预报精度和适用性。实例验证结果表明:虽然2种模型均能实现小流域暴雨洪水的预报,但从3个评价准则的结果来看,FFMS模型的预报精度优于HEC-HMS模型。研究成果证明了FFMS模型在山丘区小流域暴雨洪水预报中的有效性和可行性,可以在类似山丘区小流域暴雨洪水预报中进行推广应用。     

Evaluation of three unit hydrograph models to predict the surface runoff from a Canadian watershed

The predictability of unit hydrograph (UH) models that are based on the concepts of land morphology and isochrones to generate direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) were evaluated in this paper. The intention of this study was to evaluate the models for accurate runoff prediction from ungauged watershed using the ArcGIS^® tool. Three models such as exponential distributed geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (ED-GIUH) model, GIUH based Clark model, and spatially distributed unit hydrograph (SDUH) model, were used to generate the DRHs for the St. Esprit watershed, Quebec, Canada. Predictability of these models was evaluated by comparing the generated DRHs versus the observed DRH at the watershed outlet. The model input data, including natural drainage network and Horton's morphological parameters (e.g. isochrone and instantaneous unit hydrograph), were prepared using a watershed morphological estimation tool (WMET) on ArcGIS^® platform. The isochrone feature class was generated in ArcGIS^® using the time of concentration concepts for overland and channel flow and the instantaneous unit hydrograph was generated using the Clark's reservoir routing and S-hydrograph methods. An accounting procedure was used to estimate UH and DRHs from rainfall events of the watershed. The variable slope method and phi-index method were used for base flow separation and rainfall excess estimation, respectively. It was revealed that the ED-GIUH models performed better for prediction of DRHs for short duration (≤6 h) storm events more accurately (prediction error as low as 4.6–22.8%) for the study watershed, than the GIUH and SDUH models. Thus, facilitated by using ArcGIS^®, the ED-GIUH model could be used as a potential tool to predict DRHs for ungauged watersheds that have similar geomorphology as that of the St. Esprit watershed.     

南水北调中线工程交叉河流白河设计洪水计算

南水北调中线工程白河交叉断面以上控制流域面积３５９４．６ｋｍ＾２。控制干流河长１１５ｋｍ面上游有相关联的大中型水库３座，设计条件复杂，水文资源匮乏，交叉断面设计洪水计算在南水北调总干渠沿线交叉流中极具典型性。     

江口水电站设计洪水分析研究

在分析芙蓉江流暴雨的洪水特性的基础上，采用多种方法插补展延了洪水资源系列，并充分利用历史洪水调查资料，使设计洪水分析计算采用的资料具有一定的代表性，可靠性，其中坝堤百年一遇设计洪水洪峰流量为12000m^3/s,72h洪量为10.2亿m^3，对江口水电站设计洪水成果，通过与上下游，干支流各站的设计洪水参数及与长江流域的部分大中型水利水电工程设计水成果比较，进行了合理性分析。     

小流域暴雨山洪水文模型与水动力学方法计算比较分析

针对小流域暴雨山洪精细模拟问题,提出了小流域时空变源混合产流模型,以小流域为单元构建了暴雨山洪分布式模拟模型,开发了可视化时空变源分布式水文模型软件FFMS和水动力学计算软件FHMS。以宝盖寺小流域场次暴雨洪水计算为例,分别采用水文学和水动力学方法计算了小流域暴雨山洪过程,并分析了两种方法的计算精度、效率、实用性等。案例研究结果表明:(1)水文与水动力学方法均可实现小流域暴雨山洪的模拟,模拟结果与实测基本一致;(2)对于无资料小流域暴雨洪水计算,水文学建模速度快,计算效率更高,水动力学方法建模和计算效率更低;(3)在复杂地形条件下暴雨洪水形成机理、演进过程模拟方面,水动力学计算结果更加精细和准确;在山区中小流域洪水预报预警方面,水文学方法更加实用。     

A dynamic model to predict responses of millets (Echinochloa sp.) to different hydrologic conditions for the Illinois floodplain–River

Millets grow on floodplain mud flats exposed when seasonal floods recede, and the seeds of this plant are an important food source for waterfowl during their spring and autumn migrations in the Mississippi Flyway. Productivity of millets along the Illinois River has declined because of unnaturally frequent floods that inundate the mud flats and drown the plants during the summer growing season. These small floods are caused by operation of the navigation dams on the main channel and by alterations of the floodplain and tributary watersheds and channels. Predictive models are needed to evaluate the most cost‐effective combination of approaches for restoring plant productivity. We developed a moist‐soil plant model that simulates millet growth on 1 m² in response to daily water levels during the summer growing season. The model responds to daily water depth, flood timing (within the growing season), and flood duration, and was qualitatively verified using historical (1938–1959) water levels and plant coverage for three areas along the Illinois River. In the absence of untimely floods, the model predicts net above‐ground primary productivity of ～500 g m^?2 yr^?1 and plant heights of up to 130 cm by the end of the growing season. As expected, growth declines with decreasing land elevation or with more frequent flooding (or a shorter duration of the dry period) at the same elevation. A dry period of >85 days is required to achieve at least 50% of maximum production during the growing season, which is somewhat longer than the 70‐day recommendation based on reported field observations. The model predictions of plant success or failure agree with historical observations, indicating that water regime is a major factor limiting plant success. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GIS Based Estimation of Sediment Discharge and Areas of Soil Erosion and Deposition for the Torrential Lukovska River Catchment in Serbia

In the present study the SHETRAN river basin modelling system was used in conjunction with Geographic Information System (GIS) to estimate potential erosion and deposition rates within the catchment and the concentrations of sediment in a flow at the catchment outlet on the example of the 114.31 km² mountainous torrential Lukovska River catchment in Serbia. The streams in the Lukovska River catchment are short, steep and often produce hazardous torrential floods as a consequence of strong rainfall of short duration. The soil erosion and sediment discharge were analysed in view of the catchment response to physical characteristics of the catchment. Considering that the most of total annual sediment discharge in watersheds of torrential character is achieved during storm events, the SHETRAN modelling system was calibrated on the example of a storm event in 1986 and validated for three other storm events in 1974, 1976 and 1979. The simulated results of discharges and sediment concentrations at the catchment outlet for both calibration and validation events were compared with the observed data and found to be reasonable. The changes of erosion and deposition rates within the catchment and in the course of time were estimated for the calibration event in 1986. The simulated erosion rates were within the range of 1 to 10.5 t/ha and corresponded to the observed rates of erosion in Europe during extreme rain events. The presented methodology is useful in identifying the erosion vulnerable regions in a catchment where erosion control measures should be implemented.     

分流量区间BMA方法在小流域暴雨山洪模拟中的应用——以官山小流域为例

小流域山洪灾害具有成灾时间短、突发性强、危害性大、频次多等特点,严重威胁着区域内社会经济发展和人民群众生命财产安全。受当前山区雨洪资料少、产汇流机理不够完善所限,小流域的暴雨洪水模拟存在着可靠性差、精度低的问题。以我国中部秦巴山区山洪灾害典型流域官山小流域为研究对象,搜集了近期代表性较好的10场洪水,以TOPMODEL、TUWMODEL和新安江模型结果为基础,基于分流量区间BMA方法计算模型权重,提出适用于小流域的水文集合预报模型。结果显示,相比单一水文模型,分流量区间BMA方法模拟的洪峰流量、洪量和峰现时间指标的合格率可分别提高4.5%、39.7%和48.9%,为官山小流域洪水模拟提供了一种有效的模拟手段。研究成果对提高山区小流域洪水预报精度具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。     

Aggregated runoff from small watersheds based on stochastic representation of storm events

This paper is concerned with the estimation of aggregated direct runoff from small watersheds during a time interval (0,t), homogeneous with respect to rainfall characteristics. The storm events are simulated by a Poisson process, whereas direct runoff is estimated by the SCS method or a linear regression model. The probability of the occurrence of direct runoff is incorporated in the proposed method by examining the possibility of each storm exceeding the watershed losses index. A closed form solution is derived for the expected total direct runoff in the interval (0,t). Finally, the proposed method is applied to a particular set of conditions.Notation Q direct runoff - P rainfall depth - S index of watershed storage - CN Curve Number of SCS method - t time - T _i time interval between successive storm events (i andi+1) - X _i storm depth of theith event (case a) excess storm depth of theith event (case b) - Y(t) total direct runoff in (0,t) - N(t) number of storm events in (0,t) - F(t) distribution function of the time between storm events - G(x) distribution function of the storm depth - F _n(t),F _n+1(t) n-fold and (n+1)-fold convolution ofF(t), respectively - G _n(x),G _n+1(x) n-fold and (n+1)-fold convolution ofG(x), respectively - E[X] expected mean value - p probability of exceeding the thresholde,p+q=1 - * convolution operation     

考虑暴雨中心的子流域划分在洪水预报中的应用

为研究降雨分布不均对水库近坝区洪水预报精度的影响,以五强溪近坝区流域为研究区域,选取 2014—2020 年 20 场历史洪水资料,采用反距离权重法绘制流域暴雨中心图,并据此进行子流域划分,其中,13 场 洪水用于模型率定,7 场洪水用于模型验证。选取 2021 年 4 场洪水进行检验,对比分析仅依据自然子流域划分和 考虑暴雨中心的洪水预报结果。结果表明：两种子流域划分方法在其最优参数下的洪水模拟精度相似,考虑暴雨 中心划分的洪水模拟确定性系数均值为 0.83,略高于仅依据自然子流域划分洪水模拟确定性系数,4 场洪峰误差 均在 10％以内,洪量误差均在 20％以内,达到了甲级精度标准,说明考虑暴雨中心对子流域进行划分是合理的。     

基于SWMM模型的南京典型易涝区暴雨内涝模拟

选取南京市易涝区—鼓楼区广州路段为研究区,构建基于SWMM的一维雨洪模型,利用南京市2011年"7·18"暴雨资料,模拟暴雨形成的内涝情况,拟合地表积水量与最大积水深度的函数关系,计算得到易涝区积水开始时间、积水持续时间、最大积水深度,并与南京市100年一遇设计暴雨形成的积水过程进行比较。结果表明:提出的快速推算最大积水深度的方法能够较高精度地实时动态计算研究区"7·18"暴雨形成的积水过程,及时有效支撑防洪除涝应急决策;相较于"7·18"暴雨,100年一遇设计暴雨形成的易涝区最大积水深度更深,积水持续时间更长。     

长江上游流域暴雨洪水相似性判别指标研究

暴雨洪水发生演化的各个阶段之间存在一定的关联性和规律性。以长江上游流域为研究对象,将暴雨洪水指标分为降雨、洪水、时间、雨洪关系、水库、形状和初始指标7大类,共67个指标。通过整理暴雨历史洪水资料,摘录暴雨洪水过程和计算暴雨洪水特征值,结合洪量相似度、洪峰相似度、形状相似度和灰色关联度4种相似性评价方法,优选出降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标。以113场三峡入库洪水为样本进行相似性检验,基于几场典型洪水特征值寻找的历史相似洪水之间的相似度较高,确定性系数都达到了0.9以上。结果表明,降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标,对指导实时洪水预报具有较高的参考价值。研究成果在三峡水库以上长江上游流域进行了试验应用,在寻找历史相似洪水方面具有较好的效果。     

Potential implications of pre-storm soil moisture on hydrological prediction

Numerous hydrological models with various complexities, strengths, and weaknesses are available. Despite technological development, the association of runoff accuracy with the underlying model's parameters in watersheds with limited data remains elusive. Evaluating the soil moisture impacts at the watershed scale is often a difficult task, but it can be vital to optimally managing water resources. Incorporating pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA) procedures into hydrologic models affects the watershed response to generate runoff from storm rainfall. This study demonstrated the impact of pre-storm and post-storm soil moisture in order to circumvent major obstacles in accurate runoff estimation from watersheds employing the conventional curve number (CN) model. The proposed hydrological lumped model was tested on a data set (1,804 rainfall-runoff events) from 39 watersheds in South Korea. Its superior performance indicates that the reconciliation of pre- and post-storm conceptualization has the potential to be a solution for efficient hydrological predictions and to demonstrate the complex and dynamic nature of tractable hydrological processes. The statistically significant results reveal that the proposed model can more effectively predict runoff from watersheds in the study area than the conventional CN model and its previously proposed modifications.     

Hydrological Environmental Responses of LID and Approach for Rainfall Pattern Selection in Precipitation Data-Lacked Region

Global climate change and urbanization development have changed the hydrological environment dramatically. Flood control, non-point source pollution control, and comprehensive utilization of water resources are facing new challenges. On the basis of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), an approach for design rainfall pattern selection in precipitation data-lacked region containing model establishing, response analysis and design rainfall pattern screening was put forward. And the responses of the hydrologic, hydraulic and environmental of 2-commercial community mode are explored by using a simulation analysis under different rainfall patterns in this study. Based on the worst principle, the Chicago rainfall pattern was selected for the above-mentioned evaluation indexes at different reoccurrence periods. Results showed that, (1) in traditional development (TD), the values of surface runoff, peak flow and depth of outlet, and total pollution loading were at their maximum at the Chicago rainfall pattern; and in low-impact development (LID), the reduction rates of surface runoff and total pollution loading were at their minimum at the Huff4 rainfall pattern, and the reduction rate of peak flow was at its minimum at the P&C rainfall pattern; then design storm patterns at different simulation targets were obtained. (2) For the Chicago rainfall pattern, the reduction rates of various evaluation indexes decreased while the reoccurrence period increased, and the reduction rate of peak flow was more sensitive to high reoccurrence period rainfall than surface runoff. (3) After the setting of LID measures, the control effect of storm water and non-point source pollution gathered better results from the increase of permeable area and the change of microtopography, as well as from the physical and biological action. This study will provide a reference for the selection of design storm pattern at different simulation targets in regions with deficient rainfall data.     

Development of a GIS Interface for Estimation of Runoff from Watersheds

Development of accurate surface runoff estimation techniques from ungauged watersheds is relevant in Indian condition due to the non-availability of hydrologic gauging stations in majority of watersheds. Besides this, the high budgetary requirements for installation of gauging stations are another limiting factor in India, which leads to the use of surface runoff estimation techniques for ungauged watersheds. Natural Resources Conservation Services Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is one of the most widely used methods for quick and accurate estimation of surface runoff from ungauged watershed. Also, the coupling of NRCS-CN techniques with the advanced Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities automates the process of runoff prediction in timely and efficient manner. Keeping view of this, a GIS interface was developed using the in-built macro programming language, Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) of ArcGIS® tool to estimate the surface runoff by adopting NRCS-CN technique and its three modifications. The developed interface named as Interface for Surface Runoff Estimation using Curve Number techniques (ISRE-CN), was validated using the recorded data for the periods from 1993 to 2001 of a gauged watershed, Banha in the Upper Damodar Valley in Jharkhand, India. The observed runoff depths for different rainfall events in this study watershed was compared with the predicted values of NRCS-CN methods and its three modifications using statistical significance tests. It was revealed that using all the rainfall data for different AMC conditions, the modified CN I performed the best [R ² (coefficient of determination)?=?0.92; E (model efficiency)?=?0.89) followed by modified CN III method (R ²?=?0.88; E?=?0.87), while the modified CN II (R ²?=?0.42; E?=?0.36) failed to predict accurately the surface runoff from Banha watershed. Moreover, under AMC based estimations, the modified CN I method also performed best ( R ²?=?0.95; E?=?0.95) for AMC II condition, while the modified CN II performed the worst in all the AMC conditions. However, the developed Interface in ArcGIS® needs to be tested in other watershed systems for wider applicability of the modified CN methods.     

Comparison of community-based adaptation strategies for droughts and floods in Kenya and the Central African Republic

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses community-based adaptation strategies for droughts and floods in small watersheds in Kenya and the Central African Republic. Survey data on adaptation strategies and annual rainfall data in the watersheds were used to assess the occurrence of floods and droughts, and their impacts. In both areas, the main adaptation strategy for floods is temporary relocation. For droughts, changing livelihood activities was the main adaptation strategy, while relief-seeking applied to both droughts and floods. We recommend greater preparedness, capacity building, and the diversification of livelihoods as means of enhancing adaptation.     

A customised approach to determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small flood events in a regulated river

The construction of dams significantly alters flow and sediment regimes with subsequent deleterious effects on the morphological and ecological character of rivers. Effective experimental floods can ameliorate the downstream geomorphic impacts of dams. The traditional view is that large floods are required to perform effective geomorphic work, and the geomorphic outcomes of small floods are often overlooked. Many river restoration frameworks do not consider small floods. Yet, there is evidence that the hydrological characteristics that ameliorate specific geomorphic impacts in a river are unique to each river, and a customised approach to setting the right mix of floods (including small experimental floods) is needed. In this study, we modify an existing flood effectiveness model developed for large floods, for determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods in a highly regulated Australian river. Two flood classes were added to the model (medium peak stream power and moderate total energy expenditure), and the flood power characteristics were rescaled to reflect the relative difference in the magnitude of the small floods and the magnitude of the geomorphic work performed. Using a step‐wise approach, this customised model determined the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods. The best flood for ameliorating the geomorphic impacts of flow regulation had medium to long duration (10 to 51 days), high peak unit stream power (77 to 123 Wm^?2) and moderate to large total energy expenditure (78,600 to 342,320 × 10³ J). This approach to determining flood effectiveness for small floods is applicable to other geomorphically impacted river channels downstream of dams and can be used to inform experimental flood releases for geomorphic outcomes.     

Excess Stormwater Quantification in Ungauged Watersheds Using an Event-Based Modified NRCS Model

Quantifying runoff from a storm event is a crucial part of rainfall-runoff model development. The objective of this study is to illustrate inconsistencies in the initial abstraction (I _a) and curve number (CN) in the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) model for ungauged steep slope watersheds. Five alternatives to the NRCS model were employed to estimate stormwater runoff in 39 forest-dominated mountainous watersheds. The change to the parameterization (slope-adjusted CN and I _a) leads to more efficient modified NRCS models. The model evaluations based on root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient E, coefficient of determination (R ² ), and percent bias (PB) indicated that our proposed model with modified I _a, consistently performed better than the other four models and the original NRCS model, in reproducing the runoff. In addition to the quantitative statistical accuracy measures, the proposed I _a modification in the NRCS model showed very encouraging results in the scatter plots of the combined 1799 storm events, compared to other alternatives. This study’s findings support modifications to the CN and the I _a in the NRCS model for steep slope ungauged watersheds and suggest additional changes for more accurate runoff estimations.     

A physically based stochastic-deterministic procedure for the estimation of flood frequency

A procedure based on the method of derived distributions is proposed for the estimation of flood frequency from ungauged watersheds. The results of previous research on rainfall characteristics and watershed response are incorporated into the proposed procedure. These rainfall characteristics are storm depth, storm duration, space and time distribution. A simplified watershed model is used which has previously given good simulation of the watershed response. Some of the rainfall and watershed model parameters are stochastic in nature and are assumed to follow various probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is used for the generation of the various parameter values and simulation of the peak flow hydrographs. After 5000 realizations, the frequency of the hourly and daily peak flow and the flood volume is estimated. The proposed procedure is applied to eight coastal British Columbia watersheds and the results compare well with the observed data and with fitted probability distributions. The method is easy to apply, requires limited data and is shown to be reliable. Sensitivity analysis shows that the procedure is not very sensitive to uncertainty of the parameter values and is not dependent on the parameter probability distributions used.