Modeling and forecasting of Turkey’s energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables

This study deals with the modeling of the energy consumption in Turkey in order to forecast future projections based on socio-economic and demographic variables (gross domestic product-GDP, population, import and export amounts, and employment) using artificial neural network (ANN) and regression analyses. For this purpose, four diverse models including different indicators were used in the analyses. As the result of the analyses, this research proposes Model 2 as a suitable ANN model (having four independent variables being GDP, population, the amount of import and export) to efficiently estimate the energy consumption for Turkey. The proposed model predicted the energy consumption better than the regression models and the other three ANN models. Thus, the future energy consumption of Turkey is calculated by means of this model under different scenarios. The predicted forecast results by ANN were compared with the official forecasts. Finally, it was concluded that all the scenarios that were analyzed gave lower estimates of the energy consumption than the MENR projections and these scenarios also showed that the future energy consumption of Turkey would vary between 117.0 and 175.4 Mtoe in 2014.     

Prediction of net energy consumption based on economic indicators (GNP and GDP) in Turkey

The most important theme in this study is to obtain equations based on economic indicators (gross national product—GNP and gross domestic product—GDP) and population increase to predict the net energy consumption of Turkey using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in order to determine future level of the energy consumption and make correct investments in Turkey. In this study, three different models were used in order to train the ANN. In one of them (Model 1), energy indicators such as installed capacity, generation, energy import and energy export, in second (Model 2), GNP was used and in the third (Model 3), GDP was used as the input layer of the network. The net energy consumption (NEC) is in the output layer for all models. In order to train the neural network, economic and energy data for last 37 years (1968–2005) are used in network for all models. The aim of used different models is to demonstrate the effect of economic indicators on the estimation of NEC. The maximum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was found to be 2.322732, 1.110525 and 1.122048 for Models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. R² values were obtained as 0.999444, 0.999903 and 0.999903 for training data of Models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The ANN approach shows greater accuracy for evaluating NEC based on economic indicators. Based on the outputs of the study, the ANN model can be used to estimate the NEC from the country's population and economic indicators with high confidence for planing future projections.     

Estimating global solar radiation using artificial neural network and air temperature data in a semi-arid environment

Global solar radiation (GSR) data are desirable for many areas of research and applications in various engineering fields. However, GSR is not as readily available as air temperature data. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are effective tools to model nonlinear systems and require fewer inputs. The objective of this study was to test an artificial neural network (ANN) for estimating the global solar radiation (GSR) as a function of air temperature data in a semi-arid environment. The ANNs (multilayer perceptron type) were trained to estimate GSR as a function of the maximum and minimum air temperature and extraterrestrial radiation. The data used in the network training were obtained from a historical series (1994–2001) of daily climatic data collected in weather station of Ahwaz located in Khuzestan plain in the southwest of Iran. The empirical Hargreaves and Samani equation (HS) is also considered for the comparison. The HS equation calibrated by applying the same data used for neural network training. Two historical series (2002–2003) were utilized to test the network and for comparison between the ANN and calibrated HS method. The study demonstrated that modelling of daily GSR through the use of the ANN technique gave better estimates than the HS equation. RMSE and R² for the comparison between observed and estimated GSR for the tested data using the proposed ANN model are 2.534 MJ m^?2 day^?1 and 0.889 respectively.     

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010–2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84–59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61–65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management.     

BP神经网络模型结构对漫湾径流预报精度的影响研究

以云南省漫湾水电站历史径流状况为研究对象，运用三层前馈反向传播神经网络模型对径流进行中长期预报。为解决神经网络预报模型结构难以确定的问题，尝试在预报过程中通过改变该网络模型的结构并对得到的结果进行比较，从而找到适合该径流序列的最佳神经网络模型结构。实际应用表明，使用该结构的模型在实际预报过程中取得了良好的效果。     

Study of hourly and daily solar irradiation forecast using diagonal recurrent wavelet neural networks

An accurate forecast of solar irradiation is required for various solar energy applications and environmental impact analyses in recent years. Comparatively, various irradiation forecast models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) perform much better in accuracy than many conventional prediction models. However, the forecast precision of most existing ANN based forecast models has not been satisfactory to researchers and engineers so far, and the generalization capability of these networks needs further improving. Combining the prominent dynamic properties of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with the enhanced ability of a wavelet neural network (WNN) in mapping nonlinear functions, a diagonal recurrent wavelet neural network (DRWNN) is newly established in this paper to perform fine forecasting of hourly and daily global solar irradiance. Some additional steps, e.g. applying historical information of cloud cover to sample data sets and the cloud cover from the weather forecast to network input, are adopted to help enhance the forecast precision. Besides, a specially scheduled two phase training algorithm is adopted. As examples, both hourly and daily irradiance forecasts are completed using sample data sets in Shanghai and Macau, and comparisons between irradiation models show that the DRWNN models are definitely more accurate.     

Future projection of the energy dependency of Turkey using artificial neural network

Energy dependency (ED) implies the extent to which an economy relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs. The ED is calculated as net imports divided by the sum of gross inland energy consumption plus bunkers. This study aims at obtaining numerical equations to estimate of Turkey's energy dependency based on basic energy indicators and sectoral energy consumption by using artificial neural network (ANN) technique. It seeks to contribute to the strategies necessary to preserve the supply–demand balance of Turkey. For this purpose, two different models were used to train the ANN approach. In Model 1, main energy indicators such as total production of primary energy per capita, total gross electricity generation per capita and final energy consumption per capita were used in the input layer of the ANN while sectoral energy consumption per capita was used in Model 2.The ED was in the output layer for both models. Different models were employed to estimate the ED with a high confidence for future projections. The R² values of ED were found to be 0.999 for both models. In accordance with the analysis results, ED is expected to increase from 72% to 82% within 14 years of period. Consequently, the utilization of renewable energy sources and nuclear energy is strictly recommended to ensure the ED stability in Turkey.     

Transport energy demand modeling of South Korea using artificial neural network

Artificial neural network models were developed to forecast South Korea's transport energy demand. Various independent variables, such as GDP, population, oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount, were considered and several good models (Model 1 with GDP, population, and passenger transport amount; Model 2 with GDP, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount; and Model 3 with oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount) were selected by comparing with multiple linear regression models. Although certain regression models obtained better R-squared values than neural network models, this does not guarantee the fact that the former is better than the latter because root mean squared errors of the former were much inferior to those of the latter. Also, certain regression model had structural weakness based on P-value. Instead, neural network models produced more robust results. Forecasted results using the neural network models show that South Korea will consume around 37 MTOE of transport energy in 2025.     

Neural network approach for food temperature prediction during solar drying

In the present study, the application of artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of temperature variation of food product during solar drying is investigated. The important climatic variables namely, solar radiation intensity and ambient air temperature are considered as the input parameters for ANN modeling. Experimental data on potato cylinders and slices obtained with mixed mode solar dryer for 9 typical days of different months of the year were used for training and testing the neural network. A methodology is proposed for development of optimal neural network. Results of analysis reveal that the network with 4 neurons and logsig transfer function and trainrp back propagation algorithm is the most appropriate approach for both potato cylinders and slices based on minimum measures of error. In order to test the worthiness of ANN model for prediction of food temperature variation, the analytical heat diffusion model with appropriate boundary conditions and statistical model are also proposed. Based on error analysis results, the prediction capability of ANN model is found to be the best of all the prediction models investigated, irrespective of food sample geometry.     

Hydrogen purification layered bed optimization based on artificial neural network prediction of breakthrough curves

Artificial neural network has generally been used for a quantity of tasks such as classification, prediction, clustering and association analysis in different application fields. To the best of our knowledge, there are few researches on breakthrough curve used artificial neural network. In this paper, an artificial neural network model is established for breakthrough curves prediction in relation to a ternary components gas with a two-layered adsorbent bed piled up with activated carbon (AC) and zeolite, and an optimization is concluded by the artificial neural network. The performance data which acquired by Aspen model has been utilized for training artificial neural network (ANN) model. The ANN model trained has great competence for making prediction of hydrogen purification performance of PSA cycle with impressive speed and rational accuracy. On the strength of the ANN model, we implemented an optimization for seeking first-rank PSA cycle parameters. The optimization is concentrated on the effect of inlet flow rate, pressure and layer ratio of activated carbon height to zeolite height. Furthermore, this paper shows that the PSA cycle's optimal operation parameters can be obtained by use of ANN model and optimization algorithm, the ANN model has been trained according to the data generated by Aspen adsorption model.     

Development of surrogate models using artificial neural network for building shell energy labelling

Surrogate models are an important part of building energy labelling programs, but these models still present low accuracy, particularly in cooling-dominated climates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using an artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the accuracy of surrogate models for labelling purposes. An ANN was applied to model the building stock of a city in Brazil, based on the results of extensive simulations using the high-resolution building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out to evaluate the behaviour of the ANN model, and the variations in the best and worst performance for several typologies were analysed in relation to variations in the input parameters and building characteristics. The results obtained indicate that an ANN can represent the interaction between input and output data for a vast and diverse building stock. Sensitivity analysis showed that no single input parameter can be identified as the main factor responsible for the building energy performance. The uncertainty associated with several parameters plays a major role in assessing building energy performance, together with the facade area and the shell-to-floor ratio. The results of this study may have a profound impact as ANNs could be applied in the future to define regulations in many countries, with positive effects on optimizing the energy consumption.     

Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for Taiwan's electricity consumption

This paper uses linear and nonlinear statistical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) methods, to investigate the influence of the four economic factors, which are the national income (NI), population (POP), gross of domestic production (GDP), and consumer price index (CPI) on the electricity consumption in Taiwan and then to develop an economic forecasting model. Both methods agree that POP and NI influence electricity consumption the most, whereas GDP the least. The results of comparing the out-of-sample forecasting capabilities of the two methods indicate the following. (1) If given a large amount of historical data, the forecasts of ARMAX are better than the other linear models. (2) The linear model is weaker on foretelling peaks and bottoms regardless the amount of historical data. (3) The forecasting performance of ANN is higher than the other linear models based on two sets of historical data considered in the paper. This is probably due to the fact that the ANN model is capable of catching sophisticated nonlinear integrating effects through a learning process. To sum up, the ANN method is more appropriate than the linear method for developing a forecasting model of electricity consumption. Moreover, researchers can employ either ANN or linear model to extract the important economic factors of the electricity consumption in Taiwan.     

Performance analysis of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal double pass air collector using ANN

This paper presents the use of artificial neural network for performance analysis of a semi transparent hybrid photovoltaic thermal double pass air collector for four weather conditions (a, b, c and d type) of New Delhi. The MATLAB 7.1 neural networks toolbox has been used for defining and training of ANN for calculations of thermal energy, electrical energy, overall thermal energy and overall exergy. The ANN model uses ambient air temperature, global solar radiation, diffuse radiation and number of clear days as input parameters for four weather conditions. The transfer function, neural network configuration and learning parameters have been selected based on highest convergence during training and testing of network. About 2000 sets of data from four weather stations (Bangalore, Mumbai, Srinagar, and Jodhpur) have been given as input for training and data of the fifth weather station (New Delhi) has been used for testing purpose. It has been observed that the best transfer function for a given configuration is logsig. The feedforward back-propagation algorithm has been used in this analysis. Further the results of ANN model have been compared with analytical values on the basis of root mean square error.     

基于Elman神经网络的短期风电功率预测

为提高风电场输出功率预测精度,提出一种动态基于神经网络的功率预测方法。根据实际运行的风电场相关风速、相关风向和风电功率的历史数据,建立了基于Elman神经元网络的短期风电功率预测模型。运用多层Elman神经网络模型对西北某风电场实际1h和24h的风电输出功率预测,与BP神经网络模型对比,经仿真分析证明前者具有预测精度高的特点,三隐含层Elman神经网络模型预测效果最佳。这表明利用Elman回归神经网络建模对风电功率进行预测是可行的,能有效提高功率预测精度。     

Artificial neural networks applications in building energy predictions and a case study for tropical climates

This study presents artificial neural network (ANN) methods in building energy use predictions. Applications of the ANN methods in energy audits and energy savings predictions due to building retrofits are emphasized. A generalized ANN model that can be applied to any building type with minor modifications would be a very useful tool for building engineers. ANN methods offer faster learning time, simplicity in analysis and adaptability to seasonal climate variations and changes in the building's energy use when compared to other statistical and simulation models. The model herein is presented for predicting chiller plant energy use in tropical climates with small seasonal and daily variations. It was successfully created based on both climatic and chiller data. The average absolute training error for the model was 9.7% while the testing error was 10.0%. This indicates that the model can successfully predict the particular chiller energy consumption in a tropical climate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of an artificial neural network model for the steam process of a coal biomass cofired combined heat and power (CHP) plant in Sweden

The development of a model for any energy system is required for proper design, operation or its monitoring. Models based on accurate mathematical expressions for physical processes are mostly useful to understand the actual operation of the plant. However, for large systems like combined heat and power (CHP) plants, such models are usually complex in nature. The estimation of output parameters using these physical models is generally time consuming, as these involve many iterative solutions. Moreover, the complete physical model for new equipment may not be available. However, artificial neural network (ANN) models, developed by training the network with data from an existing plant, may be very useful especially for systems for which the full physical model is yet to be developed. Also, such trained ANN models have a fast response with respect to corresponding physical models and are useful for real-time monitoring of the plant. In this paper, the development of an ANN model for the biomass and coal cofired CHP plant of Västhamnsverket at Helsingborg, Sweden has been reported. The feed forward with back propagation ANN model was trained with data from this plant. The developed model is found to quickly predict the performance of the plant with good accuracy.     

Prediction of hydrogen production by magnetic field effect water electrolysis using artificial neural network predictive models

Developing an efficient water electrolysis (WE) configuration is essential for high-efficiency hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) activity. In this regard, it has been proven that adding a magnetic field (MF) to the electrolysis system greatly improves the hydrogen output rate. In this study, we developed a method based on a machine learning approach to further improve the hydrogen production (HP) system with MF effect WE. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to estimate the effect of input parameters such as MF, electrode material (cathode type), electrolyte type, supplied power (onset voltage), surface area, temperature, and time on HP in different electrolyzer systems. The network was built using 104 experimental data sets from various electrolysis studies. In the study, the percentage contributions of the input parameters to the HP rate and the optimum network architecture to minimize computation time and maximize network accuracy are presented. The model architecture of 7–12–1 was obtained using the best-hidden neurons. The Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm was used to train the multi-layer feed-forward neural network. Moreover, the utilization of a range of categorical variables to improve ANN prediction accuracy is a significant novelty in this work. Results demonstrated that the output of the trained ANN model fitted well with the experimental data. The test's correlation coefficient (R) and mean squared error (MSE) were 0.973 and 0.01125, respectively, confirming its powerful predictive performance. This ANN application is the first novel viable model to perform prediction using a neural network algorithm in the electrolysis process for MF effect HP using both categorical and continuous data inputs.     

利用神经网络估算太阳辐射

太阳辐射是一项对太阳能利用，建筑能耗分析和农业等十分重要的气象数据，本文建立了日总太阳辐射月均值的神经网络估算模型，在此基础上利用北京市1971年至1995年的气象数据资料对神经网络进行了训练，用1996至2000年的数据对神经网络的估算进行了检验，并与其它经验模型的估算结果进行了对比，结果表明神经网络的估算结果与实测值吻合的较好，并且精度高于其它经验模型。因此利用神经网络来估算太阳辐射具有很好的应用前景。     

Estimation of sky luminance in the tropics using artificial neural networks: Modeling and performance comparison with the CIE model

An artificial neural network (ANN) model for estimating sky luminance was developed. A 3-year period (2007–2009) of sky luminance data obtained from measurements at Nakhon Pathom (13.82°N, 100.04°E) and a 1-year period (2008) of the same type of data at Songkhla (7.20°N, 100.60°E), Thailand were used in this study. The ANN model was trained using a back propagation algorithm, based on 2 years data (2007–2008) at Nakhon Pathom for clear, partly cloudy and overcast skies. The trained ANN model was used to predict sky luminance at Nakhon Pathom for the year 2009 for the case of clear, partly cloudy and overcast skies. The results were compared with those of the CIE model. It was found that the ANN model performed better than CIE models for most cases. The ANN model trained with Nakhon Pathom data were also used to predict sky luminance at Songkhla and satisfactory results were obtained.     

Assessment of producer gas composition in air gasification of biomass using artificial neural network model

Energy generation from renewable and carbon-neutral biomass is significant in the context of a sustainable energy framework. Hydrogen can be conveniently extracted from biomass through thermo-chemical conversion process of gasification. In the present work, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed using MATLAB software for gasification process simulation based on extensive data obtained from experimental investigations. Experimental investigations on air gasification are conducted in a bubbling fluidised bed gasifier with different locally available biomasses at various operating conditions to obtain the producer gas. The developed artificial neural network consists of seven input variables, output layer with four output variables and one hidden layer with fifteen neurons. The multi-layer feed-forward neural network is trained employing Levenberg–Marquardt back-propagation algorithm. Performance of the model appraised using mean squared error and regression analysis shows good agreement between the output and target values with a regression coefficient, R = 0.987 and mean squared error, MSE = 0.71. The developed model is implemented to predict the producer gas composition from selected biomasses within the operating range. This model satisfactorily predicted the effect of operating parameters on producer gas yield, and is thus a useful tool for the simulation and performance assessment of the gasification system.