Fire risk assessment in cotton storage based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayesian network

Cotton storage fire develops rapidly, and it has high probability of being out of control and causing huge economic loss. In order to carry out a quantitative risk assessment of cotton storage fire accidents, a dynamic risk assessment model of cotton storage fire is established by means of data analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), cases study and expert opinions based on Bayesian network (BN). The model includes three sections (fire causes section, fire discoverer section, fire control section) and one mainline, with 22 nodes, and gives accident risk in the form of economic loss. Risk can be renewed quickly by giving new evidence to model nodes of BN. The application of FCE provides a feasible solution to solve the data deficiency problem in databases, experiment results and experience in model construction. Sensitivity analysis result shows firefighters participation, timely control of fire, firefighting systems and workers are important to put out the fire. A case study shows that the loss of a fire accident happened in an open storage yard is more serious than the loss of a similar fire accident happened in warehouse. This model provides support for cotton storage fire risk management and decision-making in an emergency fire accident.     

石油储罐消防安全设计

消防系统分为灭火系统和安全疏散系统。随着人们对火灾安全重视度的提高及科技的不断发展,我们在灭火系统设计,设备研究,疏散软件研发及性能化防火等方面都有了很大的提升。其目的就是为了确保消防设施在工业企业中能真正有效的应用,起到预防,灭火,减少损失的作用。石油化工企业在生产过程中存在着一系列的安全问题,因为其生产过程中常伴随着高温、高压、氧化、还原或临氢等化学反应。如果遇到操作不当或失误,引起的火灾和爆炸的危险性比非化工企业要大,容易发生更为严重的安全事故。根据多起消防火灾案例及消防法规,结合国内外油品防火设计思路,我们从石油储罐的危险性研究和消防系统布置为主进行了合理化设计。     

PV electrical plants fire risk assessment and mitigation according to the Italian national fire services guidelines

Photovoltaic (PV) systems design and construction are generally focused on efficiency and reliability, in order to increase the amount of solar energy that can be converted into electrical energy. Therefore, in a PV electrical generation plant, fire risk is not taken into account by technical designers and, furthermore, is not considered by constructors of PV plant installation. This paper shows a procedure to assess and mitigate the fire risk as a result of a PV plant installation located over buildings, according to the Italian National Fire Services Guidelines. Firstly, an introduction to the main faulty modes of PV arrays and modules is reported in order to highlight how the pre‐existing level of fire risk is increased for a building or construction work where a PV electrical generation plant is installed. Hence, the paper explains how the guidelines point out fire risk assessment steps oriented to PV plant installation over buildings. In addition, the guidelines contain some useful fire risk mitigation technical solutions. The guidelines have been developed with safety as their main objective. The PV sector has been presented with certain limitations in roof or façade installations as a result of PV fire ignition characteristics and firefighting suppression techniques. The aim of the guidelines is to provide the solar PV industry with information and technical arrangements to aid the design, construction and installation of solar PV systems meeting the objectives of both solar PV industry and fire safety requirements. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多源异构数据融合的化工安全风险动态量化评估方法

针对石化企业过程安全风险分析缺乏多源异构数据融合、难以解析风险动态时变机理的现状。首先基于改进的模糊Petri网建立风险动态传播模型,考虑初始事件失效、保护层失效和修正因子等参数,得到风险的实时变化概率;然后分析不同保护层失效对事故发生概率的影响,得到不同保护层的重要程度;最后,以正己烷缓冲罐溢流发生火灾爆炸事故为例进行动态风险计算,分析对比其在不同保护层失效下的事故发生概率变化,结果表明安全联锁系统对事故发生起关键作用,日常应加大对其检测力度,防止事故发生。     

LNG项目环境风险防范措施探讨

LNG项目在生产、储存、运输过程均存在一定的环境风险,文章就LNG项目存在的环境风险进行风险识别,并从选址、总图布置和建筑安全、危险化学品贮运、工艺技术设计、自动控制设计、电气和电讯、消防及火灾报警系统几方面提出风险防范措施,并要求企业根据环境污染事故应急预案编制技术指南制定厂区的应急预案,为同类型项目的建设及环境风险评价提出一些经验。     

PTA生产工艺风险分析及控制

PTA工艺流程存在的潜在危险因素有易燃易爆物泄漏引发的外部火灾及向大气排放的有毒或易燃物。运用HAZOP进行风险评估和事故后果分析。根据评估结果,从本质化安全设计和现场的安全管理2个方面对存在的风险进行控制。     

松节油固有危险程度的安全设施设计及评价

依据国家安监总局发布的《安全设施设计专篇编制导则》要求,运用池火灾、爆炸伤害事故模型,定量分析林产化工企业中储存松节油的固有危险程度,作为化工安全设施设计的重要依据,根据计算结果及相关设计标准,从总平面图布置、建构筑物、管线设备、消防设施、电力装置及防雷防静电等方面对松节油罐区提出可行的安全设施设计对策措施,并采用道化学(DOW)火灾、爆炸危险指数法对设计的有效性进行了评价。     

基于风险分析的性能化安全设计方法研究

通过借鉴广泛应用于消防领域的性能化设计思想和方法,针对企业建构筑防火间距不足的问题,本文提出了基于风险分析的性能化安全设计的思想、方法和设计流程等内容,后以某石油储备库为例应用该理论进行性能化安全设计。设计过程包括：确定设计范围为不满足规范要求罐组区内的设备、储存物质和相关人员等;辨识出主要危险因素为火灾、爆炸;根据主要危险因素的结构重要度的分析结果确定了性能化设计的功能指标;根据功能指标增加了高自动化措施、水幕喷淋设施等额外的性能化安全设计措施;最后使用定量方法计算性能化安全设计之后的系统风险值,评估得到性能化安全设计后的系统风险值小于规范防火间距要求下系统的风险值,性能化安全设计满足预期目标。     

Booming development of biofuels for transport: Is fire safety of concern?

Three decades after the pioneering development of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil, the arrival of the new century has seen a worldwide boom in the automotive biofuel industry. Although fire safety of biofuels has not been perceived so far as a potential barrier to sustainability of their development, very limited scientific work can be found on the matter. This paper is a first contribution to the discussion of these issues within the fire safety community. It aims at identifying research needs from an initial overview based on existing safety data pertaining to currently available biofuels for transport. The paper comprises a first analysis of fire risk typology presented by such biofuel technologies, including first lessons from recent accidents. At first sight, when considering aspects of fire safety from a technical point of view, it seems a simple problem, but analysis shows that from the point of view of safety of biofuels, it is not correct to summarize the regulatory position by simply saying that fuel ethanol is a flammable product, whereas biodiesel is not. Clearly, a more in‐depth analysis of fire safety issues is needed that will also have to consider significant changes in biofuel technologies in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining the fire risk in London dwellings using the London Fire Brigade Incident database

Analysis of the Fire Brigade's database of fires in London between 2009 and 2020 provided insight into the level of fire safety in the city and how it varies across different types of dwellings and different levels of protection. Regarding the number of fires, fatalities, and injuries, fire safety in London has significantly improved on average over these years. However, average trends cannot analyze catastrophic fires with multiple fatalities, like at Grenfell Tower in 2017, as these events are too rare to form a suitable sample size. Dwelling fires are the most lethal in London: despite accounting for only 28% of fires, they lead to 87% of fatalities and 83% of injuries. The odds of a dwelling fire becoming fatal in London fell from 1 in 174 in 2009 to 1 in 208 in 2019, a decrease of 16%. The total number of fires has decreased over this period, and the number of fires where an alarm was raised has increased, suggesting that the prevention and detection layers of fire safety have improved, while our analysis suggests that the level of protection from the compartmentation and evacuation layers has remained constant over time. An analysis of the different layers of fire protection suggests that compartmentation was the most impactful layer, with a failure in compartmentation increasing the odds of a fire being fatal by 1.5 to 5 times. Overall, this analysis shows that the fire hazard to Londoners in general is low and the lowest since 2009; however, there is still a threat that should not be understated.     

基于事故树分析法的环氧乙烷生产中火灾爆炸事故分析

事故树分析法描述了事故发生和发展的动态过程,便于找出事故的直接和间接原因及原因组合。通过对环氧乙烷生产中火灾爆炸事故树的分析,得出导致事故发生的11个基本事件。利用最小割集、最小径集、求解顶事件发生概率和对基本事件重要度进行分析,确定导致环氧乙烷生产中火灾爆炸事故发生的主导因素,为环氧乙烷生产的安全管理提供了可靠依据。     

基于RAC风险评价法的化工企业风险评估研究

通过RAC风险评价法,辨识化工企业潜在的事故类别,分析事故发生的可能性和严重度,并对风险级别进行划分,为企业预先防范和控制事故风险提供参考,以期减少事故发生的概率和降低事故的影响范围。     

浅谈探索石油化工火灾扑救的新途径、新方法

当前在石油化工生产、加工、输送、储运中常常伴随着易燃、易爆、高温、高压、深冷、有毒有害和腐蚀等危险因素,因此,石油化工行业是一个火灾爆炸危险性大,而且一旦发生火灾爆炸事故,则损失大、伤亡大、影响大的行业,一直是消防保卫的重点。本文简要分析论述了石油化工灾害事故的特点以及一些经验,并在此基础上粗浅分析了石油化工火灾扑救需要完善之处,指挥员面对石油化工火灾,能够达到指挥得当、车辆器材物尽其用,将石油化工火灾事故影响及损失降到最低。     

基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估

罐区储罐相对集中,发生事故后容易产生连锁效应,引发灾害性后果。本文根据储罐事故的发生发展规律,将事件链效应引入罐区定量风险评估中,建立了基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估方法。该方法以罐区中实际可能发生的事故场景作为风险计算依据,定量计算了罐区个人风险和社会风险。同时,利用个人风险判定准则,对事故场景数目进行了有效的筛选,避免冗长、复杂的计算。最后,以某罐区雷击事件链为例,探讨了事件链效应对罐区风险结果的影响。得出：在考虑事件链的条件下,罐区风险明显增加,需要规划改善的区域相应扩大。因此,对于大型罐区风险评估与规划,考虑事件链效应是十分必要的。     

硫磺储存设施的设计及危险防控

硫磺是制酸原料之一,属易燃固体,且粉尘极易发生爆炸,硫磺的储存需充分考虑其危险性。随着硫磺制酸装置的大型化,硫磺储存设施的规模也逐渐扩大,危险防控压力剧增。以硫磺的物性数据为基础,结合实例介绍了硫磺储存设施设计方法,以及针对火灾和粉尘爆炸所采取的危险防控设施,为大型硫磺堆场设计工作提供可供借鉴的思路和原则。     

石油化工企业火灾危险性及防火对策

石油化工企业从原料、中间体甚至产品都具有较大的火灾危险性,发生火灾爆炸事故几率高.因此,分析化工企业存在的火灾危险性,采取相应的预防对策,足化工企业安全工作的一项重要内容.文章分析了石油化工企业存在的火灾危险性.并对防火对策进行了探讨.     

Generalized analysis of regional fire risk using data visualization of incidents

Fire has been a worldwide disaster, and it is important to analyze regional fire risk for better fire prevention. Regional fire risk can be generally analyzed by using data visualization of fire incidents. A dataset of 20 622 fire incidents in Changsha City of China from 2011 to 2017 was processed and filtered as the origin risk points. Then, a generalized risk model (GRM) was established for calculating fire risk values of anywhere in Changsha. By using JavaScript and HTML5, the generalized fire risk graphics were drawn based on mapping different fire risk values with different colors. For visualizing fire incidents, the inner and outer generalization radiuses of the origin risk point were set to be 1 (110 m) and 10 (1100 m), respectively. It was found that the high and medium fire risk areas were mainly distributed in urban areas and market towns, especially in central city. The spatial distribution characteristics of fire risk of different time ranges and different causes were significantly varied. The results can provide guidance of fire prevention for the fire department in Changsha. Other cities' regional fire risk and even other types of disaster risk can also be generally analyzed using GRM.     

有机过氧化物的基本特性和风险预防

简要介绍了有机过氧化物的某些基本性质,用途、危险性分析以及安全性评价,同时列举在烯烃聚合工业中作为重要引发剂的部分有机过氧化物,提出其在储存、运输、使用、报废等方面的风险消减与事故预防措施。     

顺丁橡胶生产装置灾害事故处置措施的研究

如何安全、科学、高效地处置橡胶企业事故已经成为消防救援队伍面临的重要课题。本文分析顺丁橡胶生产工艺过程的火灾危险性,结合江苏某石化橡胶有限公司“1.12”爆燃事故处置方案,探究顺丁橡胶生产类火灾的现场处置措施,为橡胶生产装置类火灾扑救工作提供参考,并针对橡胶生产企业日常安全管理工作提出建议。     

Plant-specific dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory

Abnormal events of varying magnitudes result in incipient faults, near-misses, incidents, and accidents in chemical plants. Their detection and diagnosis has been an active area of research [Venkatasubramanian, V., Rengaswamy, R., Kavuri, S.N., 2003a. A review of process fault detection and diagnosis, Part II: Quantitative model and search strategies. Computers and Chemical Engineering 27(3), 313-326; Venkatasubramanian, V., Rengaswamy, R., Kavuri, S.N., Yin, K., 2003b. A review of process fault detection and diagnosis, Part III: Process history based methods. Computers and Chemical Engineering 27(3), 327-346]. However, estimation of the failure probabilities of safety systems to predict these consequences (end-states), has received little attention in the CPI. In this work, methods for plant-specific, dynamic risk assessment are developed to predict the frequencies of abnormal events utilizing accident precursor data, helping to achieve inherently safer operations. These methods, which involve repetitive risk analysis after abnormal events occur, are especially beneficial for operations involving complex nonlinearities and multi-component interactions. Herein, the failure probabilities of safety systems and end-states are estimated using copulas and Bayesian analysis to ensure better predictions. The joint probability distribution for the failure probability of a safety system(s) having different consequences is modeled using the Cuadras and Auges copula [Nelsen, R.B., 1999. An Introduction to Copulas. Lecture Notes in Statistics, Springer, New York]. Accident precursor data are used to modify dynamically the initial estimates of failure probabilities to obtain posterior failure probabilities of the safety systems of an exothermic reactor. Finally, fuzzy memberships to various critical zones are formulated as a function of end-state probabilities to judge the safety status of a chemical plant.