Great Lakes ice classification using satellite C-band SAR multi-polarization data

The objective of this study is to advance development of algorithms to classify and map ice cover on the Laurentian Great Lakes using satellite C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) multi-polarization data. During the 1997 winter season, shipborne polarimetric backscatter measurements of Great Lakes ice types, using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band scatterometer, were acquired together with surface-based ice physical characterization measurements and environmental parameters, concurrently with European Remote Sensing Satellite 2 (ERS-2) and RADARSAT-1 SAR data. This fully polarimetric dataset, composed of over 20 variations of different ice types measured at incidence angles from 0° to 60° for all polarizations, was processed and fully calibrated to obtain radar backscatter, establishing a library of signatures for different ice types. Computer analyses of calibrated ERS-2 and RADARSAT ScanSAR images of Great Lakes ice cover using the library in a supervised classification technique indicate that different ice types in the ice cover can be identified and mapped, but that wind speed and direction can cause misclassification of open water as ice based on single frequency, single polarization data. Using RADARSAT-2 quad-pol and ENVISAT ASAR dual-pol data obtained for Lake Superior during the 2009 and 2011 winter seasons, algorithms were developed for small incidence angle (< 35°) and large incidence angle (> 35°) SAR images and applied to map ice and open water. Ice types were subsequently classified using the library of backscatter signatures. Ice-type maps provide important input for environmental management, ice-breaking operations, ice forecasting and modeling, and climate change studies.     

Satellite SAR Remote Sensing of Great Lakes Ice Cover,Part 2. Ice Classification and Mapping

During the 1997 winter season, shipborne polarimetric backscatter measurements of Great Lakes (freshwater) ice types using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band scatterometer, together with surface-based ice physical characterization measurements and environmental parameters, were acquired concurrently with Earth Resource Satellite 2 (ERS-2) and RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. This polarimetric data set, composed of over 20 variations of different ice types measured at incident angles from 0° to 60° for all polarizations, was processed to radar cross-section to establish a library of signatures (look-up table) for different ice types. The library is used in the computer classification of calibrated satellite SAR data. Computer analysis of ERS-2 and RADARSAT ScanSAR images of Great Lakes ice cover using a supervised classification technique indicates that different ice types in the ice cover can be identified and mapped, and that wind speed and direction can have an influence on the classification of water as ice based on single frequency, single polarization data. Once satellite SAR data are classified into ice types, the ice map provides important and necessary input for environmental protection and management, ice control and ice breaking operations, and ice forecasting and modeling efforts.     

A Statistical Representation of Wind Events in the Great Lakes

We have analyzed hourly observations of overtake wind speed obtained from the eight National Data Buoy Center buoys deployed in the Great Lakes to determine the long-term (10 to 12 year) statistical characteristics of wind events over the lakes. We find that a generalized double-exponential model accurately describes both the return period and the duration of the wind events observed at each buoy, with only slight spatial variations in the model parameters. Wind observations made at several shore stations on Lake Michigan and filtered through a simple overland-overlake wind model confirm the model parameter values determined from the buoy measurements. The generalized function will be useful for engineering and climatological studies of the effects of winds on the Great Lakes.     

Development of the Great Lakes Ice-circulation Model (GLIM): Application to Lake Erie in 2003–2004

To simulate ice and water circulation in Lake Erie over a yearly cycle, a Great Lakes Ice-circulation Model (GLIM) was developed by applying a Coupled Ice-Ocean Model (CIOM) with a 2-km resolution grid. The hourly surface wind stress and thermodynamic forcings for input into the GLIM are derived from meteorological measurements interpolated onto the 2-km model grids. The seasonal cycles for ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and other variables are well reproduced in the 2003/04 ice season. Satellite measurements of ice cover were used to validate GLIM with a mean bias deviation (MBD) of 7.4%. The seasonal cycle for lake surface temperature is well reproduced in comparison to the satellite measurements with a MBD of 1.5%. Additional sensitivity experiments further confirm the important impacts of ice cover on lake water temperature and water level variations. Furthermore, a period including an extreme cooling (due to a cold air outbreak) and an extreme warming event in February 2004 was examined to test GLIM's response to rapidly-changing synoptic forcing.     

Relationships between wind-driven and hydraulic flow in Lake St. Clair and the St. Clair River Delta

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic forecasting model of the Great Lakes Huron-Erie Corridor is used to investigate mixing and the relationship between hydraulic and wind-induced currents in a shallow lake system in which lake inflows come through several channels of a river delta. The hydrodynamics in Lake St. Clair and the channels of the St. Clair River Delta are evaluated for (1) a one-year simulation from 1985 including water age calculation, (2) 8 different wind direction scenarios, and (3) a storm event. Observations and model simulations show distinct regions in the lake in which currents are forced by either hydraulic flow from the river system or from wind stress over the lake. However, during severe storm events, these regions are found to shift or even disappear due to changes in the delta channel inputs into the lake. These changes underscore the need for realistic, unsteady river flow boundary conditions at interfaces between a shallow lake and river delta. Steady inflow conditions will not allow for potential shifting of these current zones, and will also fail to resolve flow retardation or reversals during storm events.     

Great Lakes Flood Thresholds and Impacts

Using the location, data, and water levels from flood events along the Canadian shore of the Great Lakes, flood damage thresholds were determined to identify and compare water levels at which static and storm-induced high water impact shoreline interests on several shore reaches of Lakes Erie, Huron, Ontario, and St. Clair. Spatial differences identified may be related to several factors, including: 1) nearshore bathymetries; 2) extent of residential development along low-lying shorelines; 3) degree of riparian adjustment to flooding; and 4) location relative to dominant wind or storm directions. Correlation analyses found that flood damage levels are more closely correlated to fluctuations in static levels on Lakes Ontario, Huron, and St. Clair, while flood damage levels are more closely correlated to maximum instantaneous water levels on Lake Erie. Correlation analyses of individual gauge data identified locations possibly more susceptible to storm surges. A conservative approach to determining flood damage thresholds is suggested, being based on a standard deviation below the mean of maximum instantaneous flood levels for a given gauge. The standard deviation threshold, while lower than current “critical levels” used in management, is more representative of the majority of flood damage levels than thresholds based on lowest maximum instantaneous lake levels. However, caution is urged in applying any critical level solely based on water level gauge information as Great Lakes flooding is a highly site-specific phenomenon influenced by meteorologic factors.     

Satellite SAR Remote Sensing of Great Lakes Ice Cover,Part 1. Ice Backscatter Signatures at C Band

For remote sensing of Great Lakes ice cover, a field experiment campaign was conducted in the 1997 winter season across the Straits of Mackinac and Lake Superior. The campaign was coordinated in two expeditions on two different United States Coast Guard icebreaker vessels, the Biscayne Bay in February and the Mackinaw in March. Aboard these icebreakers, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band polarimetric scatterometer was used to measure backscatter signatures of various ice types and open water at incidence angles from 0° to 60°. The radar measurements include incidence angles and polarizations of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR) on ERS, RADARSAT, and Envisat satellites. The radar data together with in situ measurements form a signature library that can be used to interpret SAR data for ice classification and mapping. Results are presented for backscatter signatures of Great Lakes ice types from thin lake ice to thick brash ice with different snow-cover and surface conditions. The signature library indicates that several ice types can be identified with multi-polarization SAR data; however, single-polarization data can result in misclassification of ice and open water at different ranges of incidence angle and wind conditions. For incidence angles larger than 30°, thick brash ice, the most difficult for icebreaking operations and the most hazardous for ship navigation, can be uniquely identified by co-polarized backscatter for all wind conditions below the gale force.     

A band-ratio algorithm for retrieving open-lake chlorophyll values from satellite observations of the Great Lakes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) has collected water quality data from the five Great Lakes annually since 1993. We used the GLNPO observations made since 2002 along with coincident measurements made by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to develop a new band-ratio algorithm for estimating chlorophyll concentrations in the Great Lakes from satellite observations. The new algorithm is based on a third-order polynomial model using the same maximum band ratios employed in the standard NASA algorithms (OC4 for SeaWiFS and OC3M for MODIS). The sensor-specific coefficients for the new algorithm were obtained by fitting the relationship to several hundred matched field and satellite observations. Although there are some seasonal variations in some lakes, the relationship between the observed chlorophyll values and those modeled using the new coefficients is fairly stable from lake to lake and across years. The accuracy of the satellite chlorophyll estimates derived from the new algorithm was improved substantially relative both to the standard NASA retrievals and to previously published algorithms tuned to individual lakes. Monte-Carlo fits to randomly selected subsets of the observations allowed us to estimate the uncertainty associated with the retrievals purely as a function of the satellite data. Our results provide, for the first time, a single simple band ratio method for retrieving chlorophyll concentrations in the offshore “open” waters of the Great Lakes from satellite observations.     

Tracking the Surface Flow in Lake Champlain

Understanding the hydrodynamics of Lake Champlain is a basic requirement for developing forecasting tools to address the lake‘s environmental issues. In 2003 through 2005, surface drifting buoys were used to help characterize the circulation of the main body and northeast region (Inland Sea) of the lake. Progressive vector diagrams of over-lake winds when compared to drifter trajectories suggest the presence of gyre-like circulation patterns. Drifter statistics suggest average current speeds of 10 cm s⁻¹ and were predominantly northward (+ V) due to northerly-directed winds and lake geometry. Singleparticle eddy diffusivities on the order of 10⁶ cm² s⁻¹ were calculated which is consistent with results from the Great Lakes and in some oceanic regions. However, the Lagrangian length and time scales, a measure of flow decorrelation scales, were in general smaller than seen in the Great Lakes, which is a natural consequence of the smaller basin size of Lake Champlain relative to the Great Lakes.     

Pelagic Bird Survey on Lake Ontario Following Hurricane Isabel,September 2003: Observations and Remarks on Methodology

The abundance and dispersion of pelagic waterbirds was measured on Lake Ontario during the aftermath of the storm system generated by Hurricane Isabel, September 2003. The purpose of this study was to determine whether standard shipboard methodologies developed for surveying pelagic seabirds from ships on the ocean are applicable on the Laurentian Great Lakes, and if so whether such surveys may provide information that cannot be acquired from shore-based surveys. The abundance of waterbirds was low in offshore Lake Ontario, but similar to oligotrophic ocean environments. Our results suggest that bird surveys are easy to conduct from Great Lakes research vessels, and are likely to provide information useful for monitoring ecosystem health in the Lakes.     

Effects of Great Lakes Water Loading upon Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Lake History

Over the last century geological studies of the ancestral Great Lakes have confirmed that the large surface load of the Laurentide ice sheet deformed the region causing tilting of ancient lake shorelines. Models of this glacial isostatic adjustment mechanism have promoted understanding of this process but have only included ice sheet loads as the source of earth deformation in the region. We describe a method, utilizing a model of glacial isostatic adjustment combined with GIS, that recreates the paleohydrology of the Great Lakes. Predictions include the extent of late glacial, postglacial, and Holocene lakes and their associated outlets and bathymetries. This predicted history of the Great Lakes is similar to that obtained from a century of detailed field studies but our method uses only the present digital elevation model, a prescribed ice sheet chronology, and an assumed earth viscoelastic rheology. Ancient lake bathymetry predictions provide an estimate of water loads associated with each lake. The effect of these lake loads upon vertical deformation of the Great Lakes region is shown to be small, less than 15 m, but not insignificant when compared to approximately 150 m of deformation forced by ice and ocean loads. Maximum lake-induced deformation is centered upon Lake Superior where water depths were greatest. Where topography is low relief, prediction of shoreline locations should include the lake loading effect as well as the ice and ocean loads.     

Origin and Evolution of the Great Lakes

This paper presents a synthesis of traditional and recently published work regarding the origin and evolution of the Great Lakes. It differs from previously published reviews by focusing on three topics critical to the development of the Great Lakes: the glaciation of the Great Lakes watershed during the late Cenozoic, the evolution of the Great Lakes since the last glacial maximum, and the record of lake levels and coastal erosion in modern times.The Great Lakes are a product of glacial scour and were partially or totally covered by glacier ice at least six times since 0.78 Ma. During retreat of the last ice sheet large proglacial lakes developed in the Great Lakes watershed. Their levels and areas varied considerably as the oscillating ice margin opened and closed outlets at differing elevations and locations; they were also significantly affected by channel downcutting, crustal rebound, and catastrophic inflows from other large glacial lakes.Today, lake level changes of about a 1/3 m annually, and up to 2 m over 10 to 20 year time periods, are mainly climatically-driven. Various engineering works provide small control on lake levels for some but not all the Great Lakes. Although not as pronounced as former changes, these subtle variations in lake level have had a significant effect on shoreline erosion, which is often a major concern of coastal residents.     

An algorithm to retrieve chlorophyll,dissolved organic carbon,and suspended minerals from Great Lakes satellite data

An algorithm that utilizes individual lake hydro-optical (HO) models has been developed for the Great Lakes that uses SeaWiFS, MODIS, or MERIS satellite data to estimate concentrations of chlorophyll, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended minerals. The Color Producing Agent Algorithm (CPA-A) uses a specific HO model for each lake. The HO models provide absorption functions for the Color Producing Agents (CPAs) (chlorophyll (chl), colored dissolved organic matter (as dissolved organic carbon, doc), and suspended minerals (sm)) as well as backscatter for the chlorophyll, and suspended mineral parameters. These models were generated using simultaneous optical data collected with in situ measurements of CPAs collected during research cruises in the Great Lakes using regression analysis as well as using specific absorption and backscatter coefficients at specific chl, doc, and sm concentrations. A single average HO model for the Great Lakes was found to generate insufficiently accurate concentrations for Lakes Michigan, Erie, Superior and Huron. These new individual lake retrievals were evaluated with respect to EPA in situ field observations, as well as compared to the widely used OC3 MODIS retrieval. The new algorithm retrievals provided slightly more accurate chl values for Lakes Michigan, Superior, Huron, and Ontario than those obtained using the OC3 approach as well as providing additional concentration information on doc and sm. The CPA-A chl retrieval for Lake Erie is quite robust, producing reliable chl values in the reported EPA concentration ranges. Atmospheric correction approaches were also evaluated in this study.     

Lagrangian Comparison of Objectively Analyzed and Dynamically Modeled Circulation Patterns in Lake Erie

Currents measured at 28 moorings in Lake Erie during May through October, 1979, were low-pass filtered to remove energy at diurnal, inertial, and higher frequencies. The current meter observations were interpolated to a regular grid over the lake by a new objective analysis technique, producing a stream function field which 1) conserves mass both locally and globally, 2) has values on the shores given by known river flows, 3) has the correct currents where they were measured, and 4) minimizes a function of squared vorticity in areas between the observations. In addition, a numerical, time-dependent, barotropic, rigid-lid circulation model was run using winds from six meteorological buoys on the lake as the forcing function. Twelve 5-day storm cases were selected for detailed Lagrangian analysis. At the beginning of each case, marker particles were released into the objectively analyzed and dynamically modeled flow fields at each of the 28 current meter mooring locations. Differences in the particle trajectories were analyzed by location and as a function of time. The results indicate that the circulation model shows some skill in generating particle trajectories over the course of a storm event in the central basin of the lake with mean positional differences as low as 8.5 km after 5 days compared to a mean path length of 14.9 km. They also show how numerical models and the objective analysis technique can be used to design more effective instrument deployment schemes for measuring lake and ocean circulation patterns.     

Numerical study of hydrodynamic process in Chaohu Lake

In this paper, the hydrodynamic characteristics of water flow in Chaohu Lake are studied by using the finite volume coastal ocean model(FVCOM), which is verified by the observed data. The typical flow field and the 3-D flow structure are obtained for the lake. The flow fields under extreme conditions are analyzed to provide a prospective knowledge of the water exchange and the transport process.The influence of the wind on the flow is determined by the cross spectrum method. The results show that the wind-driven flow dominates most area of the lake. Under prevailing winds in summer and winter, the water flows towards the downwind side at the upper layer while towards the upwind side at the lower layer in most area except that around the Chaohu Sluice. The extreme wind speed is not favorable for the water exchange while the sluice's releasing water accelerates the process. The water velocity in the lake is closely related with the wind speed.     

Great Lakes Levels and Flows: Past and Future

The many analyses of the more than 100 years’ record of Great Lakes levels and of precipitation in the basin are generally assumed to provide a reasonable basis for predicting, statistically, future lake levels. The usefulness of this assumption is questioned because of increasing consumptive use of Great Lakes waters, and probable climatic change over the next century. The International Joint Commission's 1981 report on consumptive use and diversions gives as its most likely scenario an annual growth of 2.7% in consumptive uses. By the year 2035, this would reduce Great Lakes outflows by about 708 m³ (25,000 cfs), with an estimated loss of “$200 million per year in hydro power production.” The climatic effects of the inexorable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) due mainly to burning of fossil fuels are still difficult to predict. However, the best predictions available suggest that in the next 70 years or so, the mean air temperature in the Great Lakes basin will rise by approximately 3C° and may well be accompanied by slightly less precipitation. Increases in evaporation from the Great Lakes would be equivalent to 7–8% of the mean annual flow of the St. Lawrence. These two factors — increased evaporation and increased consumptive uses — suggest that significantly lower lake levels and flows of interconnecting channels and the St. Lawrence River are likely in the next century.     

Objective Wind Forecasting and Verification on the Great Lakes

The Techniques Development Laboratory of the National Weather Service has developed an automated objective wind forecast scheme. The forecasts are currently being transmitted twice daily for the five Great Lakes. Wind forecasts are made for 12 locations on the lakes by the Model Output Statistics technique. Mean absolute errors in wind speed, for the various forecast periods, range from 5 to 8 knots (2.6 to 4.1 m sec^?l). Mean absolute errors in direction are as low as 20 degrees for the short-term forecasts (6- to 12-hour periods) to as high as 70 degrees for the longer term forecasts (30 to 36 hours).     

Laurentian Great Lakes Hydrology and Lake Levels under the Transposed 1993 Mississippi River Flood Climate

The Laurentian Great Lakes are North America's largest water resource, and include six large water bodies (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, and Georgian Bay), Lake St. Clair, and their connecting channels. Because of the relatively small historical variability in system lake levels, there is a need for realistic climate scenarios to develop and test sensitivity and resilience of the system to extreme high lake levels. This is particularly important during the present high lake level regime that has been in place since the late 1960s. In this analysis, we use the unique climate conditions which resulted in the 1993 Mississippi River flooding as an analog to test the sensitivity of Great Lakes hydrology and water levels to a rare but actual climate event. The climate over the Upper Mississippi River basin was computationally shifted, corresponding to a conceptual shift of the Great Lakes basin 10̊ west and 2̊ south. We applied a system of hydrological models to the daily meteorological time series and determined daily runoff, lake evaporation, and net basin water supplies. The accumulated net basin supplies from May through October 1993 for the 1993 Mississippi River flooding scenario ranged from a 1% decrease for Lake Superior to a large increase for Lake Erie. Water levels for each lake were determined from a hydro-logic routing model of the system. Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie were most affected. The simulated rise in Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels far exceeded the historically recorded rise with both lakes either approaching or setting record high levels. This scenario demonstrates that an independent anomalous event, beginning with normal lake levels, could result in record high water levels within a 6- to 9-month period. This has not been demonstrated in the historical record or by other simulation studies.     

Warmer and Drier Climates that Make Terminal Great Lakes

A recent empirical model of glacial-isostatic uplift showed that the Huron and Michigan lake level fell tens of meters below the lowest possible outlet about 7,900 ¹⁴C years BP when the upper Great Lakes became dependent for water supply on precipitation alone, as at present. The upper Great Lakes thus appear to have been impacted by severe dry climate that may have also affected the lower Great Lakes. While continuing paleoclimate studies are corroborating and quantifying this impacting climate and other evidence of terminal lakes, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory applied their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System, modified to use dynamic lake areas, to explore the deviations from present temperatures and precipitation that would force the Great Lakes to become terminal (closed), i.e., for water levels to fall below outlet sills. We modeled the present lakes with pre-development natural outlet and water flow conditions, but considered the upper and lower Great Lakes separately with no river connection, as in the early Holocene basin configuration. By using systematic shifts in precipitation, temperature, and humidity relative to the present base climate, we identified candidate climates that result in terminal lakes. The lakes would close in the order: Erie, Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Ontario for increasingly drier and warmer climates. For a temperature rise of T°C and a precipitation drop of P% relative to the present base climate, conditions for complete lake closure range from 4.7T + P > 51 for Erie to 3.5T + P > 71 for Ontario.     

Changes in Fecundity and Egg Lipid Content of Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the Upper Laurentian Great Lakes between 1986–87 and 2003–05

Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis Mitchill), an important commercial species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced decreased growth and condition in regions of the upper Great Lakes over the past 20 years. Increases in lake whitefish density and decreases in the density of Diporeia spp., an energy rich and historically important part of the lake whitefish diet, have been implicated in the recent declines in lake whitefish growth and condition. The goal of this study was to describe lake whitefish fecundity, egg lipid content, and total ovary lipid content in selected regions of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior in 1986–87 and 2003–05, two time periods with different lake whitefish and Diporeia densities. Under conditions of high lake whitefish density and low Diporeia density, female lake whitefish in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes generally produced fewer eggs. Egg lipid content was higher in 2003–05 than in 1986–87 at all sites, regardless of changes in lake whitefish or Diporeia densities. Total ovary lipid content and lake whitefish abundance were inversely related, while there was no significant relationship between total ovary lipid content and Diporeia density. The amount of energy that lake whitefish invested in egg production was more closely associated with lake whitefish abundance than with Diporeia density. This study provides evidence that recent changes in production dynamics of Great Lakes lake whitefish have not been driven solely by declines in Diporeia but have been significantly influenced by lake whitefish abundance.