ARIMA季节乘积模型在肠道传染病预测中的应用

目的:建立细菌性痢疾月发病数的预测模型,探讨AR1MA季节乘积模型在时间序列资料分析中的应用。方法:采用非条件最小二乘法估计模型参数,通过季节差分方法使原始序列平稳,按照残差不相关原则、简洁原则确定模型结构,依据AIC和SBC准则确定模型阶数,建立ARIMA预测模型。结果:对所分析的季节性时间序列建立了乘积ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12模型。方差估计值为288.106,AIC=619.661,SBC=620.492。对模型进行白噪声残差分析(p=0.632),拟合优度统计量表明ARIMA的估计具体模型为:(1-B12)Zt=(1-0.34B)(1-0.559B12)αt是适合的。结论:通过ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12模型与ARIMA(0,1,1)12模型对细菌性痢疾月发病数预测效果的比较,表明ARIMA季节乘积模型是一种短期预测精度较高的预测模型。     

基于ARIMA时序算法的车站人流密度预测模型

根据车站的人流密度数据,利用ARIMA模型进行了预测,将非平稳的时间序列进行差分,得到平稳化的时间序列,通过Durbin-Watson检验测试数据的稳定性并观察ARIMA模型的残差平均值和方差以及连续残差的自相关性。通过将数据按照比例分为训练集和数据集来对模型进行评估,得到模型的评估得分。为了进一步提高车站人流密度的预测精度,建立基于k-means聚类的ARIMA组合预测模型,通过k-means聚类算法将问题一中得到的主要影响因素的数据集进行聚类,观察每一类数据的组内特点,对每一类数据重新利用ARIMA模型进行预测,然后计算出组合模型的评估得分。     

基于计算机技术的组合预测法下“非人民币贷款”比率分析

分析了除人民币贷款以外的融资方式及其发展情况,通过建立非平稳时间序列(ARIMA)模型,灰色预测GM(1,1)残差模型,自适应过滤法三种,选取残差较小的两种进行组合预测,预计到2018年该比率将会达到77.57%,在此基础上给出相应建议。     

基于非平稳时序ARIMA模型的W频段雨衰预测

针对目前绝大多数雨衰预测模型仅验证到55 GHz,而经过验证的W频段预测模型相对较少,且存在模型表述复杂度高、计算量大的问题,该文提出一种结构简单、计算量小的实时预测方法。该方法基于ARIMA模型,利用非平稳雨衰时序中相邻时序间的相关性建立预测模型,对初始序列进行平稳性检验,通过差分变换将非平稳序列转化为平稳序列,并对平稳化后的时间序列进行参数估计及诊断检验,将传统非线性预测转化为线性预测。并先将该ARIMA(1,1,6)模型在不同极化方式、预测间隔和时序个数的条件下进行比较,然后分别与ITU-R, Silva Mello模型在垂直极化、预测间隔0.10 GHz,时序个数50的条件下进行比较,最后使用ARIMA(1,1,6)模型进行预测,并对照预测序列与仿真序列的吻合度。结果表明,ARIMA模型与ITU-R, Silva Mello模型所得结果预测误差不超过10-3 ,且衰减变化趋势基本相同,预测序列与仿真序列间吻合度较高,说明该方法可用于W频段雨衰预测,且预测精度高,模型表述简单。     

灰色稀疏极端学习机在激光陀螺随机误差系数预测中的应用

为了提高激光陀螺的性能,有效地补偿激光陀螺的随机误差,提出了一种灰色稀疏极端学习机的预测新模型。为了克服极端学习机(ELM)训练样本缺乏稀疏性的不足,根据矩阵求逆引理实现了冗余样本递推剔除,提出了一种稀疏极端学习机;利用灰色预测模型对原始数据进行初步预测,将实测值与预测值生成残差序列,选取适当长度残差序列作为训练样本,剩余数据序列作为测试样本,输入稀疏极端学习机进行残差回归预测,将预测的残差值与灰色预测得到的数据结合生成最终的预测结果。将灰色稀疏极端学习机预测模型应用于某型激光陀螺随机误差系数预测实验中,结果表明:该模型能够取得比其他3种预测模型更加精确的结果。     

基于ARIMA的冬季日最低温度预测与分析

本文利用差分整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model,ARIMA)来预测冬季日最低温度。本文给出了两种时间序列预测方法 ARIMA＿LM和ARIMA＿D。在真实数据集上,评估了ARIMA＿LM和ARIMA＿D的准确率,其中ARIMA＿LM方法预测短期的准确率可达80%。最后,利用ARIMA＿D方法,预测了未来一年的冬季日最低温度。本文的预测模型技术为公众、气象部门等预知未来冬季日最低温奠定基础。     

基于非线性时间序列的预测模型检验与优化的研究

 模型的适用性检验和参数优化是系统建模的最关键环节,对于预测模型的适用性检验,常采用残差方差图、最小信息准则和AIC准则等方法,存在计算量大、准确性低、模型不唯一等缺点.本文给出采用自相关系数和偏自相关系数的拖尾先对ARIMA模型检验,再对其进行F适用性检验,克服了由于观测样本的长度是有限的,偏相关的估计存在误差,拖尾时不能为ARMA定阶的缺陷,并采用具有超线性收敛性等诸多优点的变尺度法对模型参数进行了优化,得到了较为精确的、单一AIRMA 模型,该方法可应用于网络流量模型的适用性检验和模型优化,为网络流量的预测、异常检测和服务器负载预测的应用奠定了坚实的基础.     

基于扩大周期的电力负荷预测模型

针对现有电力负荷预测模型依赖近期数据导致预测结果偏离时间序列真实情况的问题,文中提出了基于扩大周期信息的电力负荷预测模型。将预处理完的电力负荷时间序列按照同一时刻不同天进行处理,在此基础上分别利用ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)模型和LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory Network)模型进行建模分析,并采用3种评价指标评估模型的预测表现。预测结果表明,扩大周期信息构建的ARIMA模型的3种评价指标都比传统ARIMA模型低,对应的RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)、MAE(Mean Absolute Error)和MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)分别为32 434.114 8、5 828.390 9和0.025 2;扩大周期信息的LSTM模型也比原始LSTM模型低,对应的RMSE、MAE和MAPE分别为13 520.497 4、9 298.352 6和0.091 4。     

基于ARIMA-RNN组合模型的云服务器老化预测方法

针对云服务器系统运行环境具有非线性、随机性和突发性的特点,提出了基于整合移动平均自回归和循环神经网络组合模型(ARIMA-RNN)的软件老化预测方法.首先,采用ARIMA模型对云服务器时间序列数据进行老化预测;然后,利用灰色关联度分析法计算时间序列数据的相关性,确定RNN模型的输入维度;最后,将ARIMA模型预测值和历...     

基于Kalman和ARIMA组合模型的路段行程时间预测

考虑到目前单一路段行程时间预测方法性能不稳定的情况,提出卡尔曼滤波预测(Kalman)和时间序列分析(ARIMA)组合模型进行路段行程时间的预测。利用Kalman模型良好的实时性和ARIMA强大的线性拟合能力,以两种模型分别对同一路段行程时间进行独立的预测,再将这两子模型所得预测结果进行动态加权,以最优模式组合模型以达到最佳预测目的。研究表明,组合模型吸取了两模型的各自优点,其预测准确性高于各独立预测模型,是预测路段行程时间的有效方法。     

Resolution Enhancement Technology:Integrated Process Solutions using OPC

DUV lithography, using the 248 nm wavelength, is a viable manufacturing option for devices with features at 130 nm and less. Given the low kl value of the lithography, integrated process development is a necessary method for achieving acceptable process latitude. The application of assist features for rule based OPC requires the simultaneous optimization of the mask, illumination optics and the resist.Described in this paper are the details involved in optimizing each of these aspects for line and space imaging.A reference pitch is first chosen to determine how the optics will be set. The ideal sigma setting is determined by a simple geometrically derived expression. The inner and outer machine settings are determined, in turn,with the simulation of a figure of merit. The maximum value of the response surface of this FOM occurs at the optimal sigma settings. Experimental confirmation of this is shown in the paper.Assist features are used to modify the aerial image of the more isolated images on the mask. The effect that the diffraction of the scattering bars (SBs) has on the image intensity distribution is explained. Rules for determining the size and placement of SBs are also given.Resist is optimized for use with off-axis illumination and assist features. A general explanation of the material' s effect is discussed along with the affect on the through-pitch bias. The paper culminates with the showing of the lithographic results from the fully optimized system.     

Cost-effective test solutions for smart card and other integrated flash applications

From its emergence in the late 1980s as a lower cost alternative to early EEPROM technologies, flash memory has evolved to higher densities and speedsand rapidly growing acceptance in mobile applications.In the process, flash memory devices have placed increased test requirements on manufacturers. Today, as flash device test grows in importance in China, manufacturers face growing pressure for reduced cost-oftest, increased throughput and greater return on investment for test equipment. At the same time, the move to integrated flash packages for contactless smart card applications adds a significant further challenge to manufacturers seeking rapid, low-cost test.     

Theoretical analysis of the relationship between the Brillouin gain coefficient and the strain in the optical-fiber sensors

The relation between the power of the Brillouin signal and the strain is one of the bases of the distributed fiber sensors of temperature and strain. The coefficient of the Bfillouin gain can be changed by the temperature and the strain that will affect the power of the Brillouin scattering. The relation between the change of the Brillouin gain coefficient and the strain is thought to be linear by many researchers. However, it is not always linear based on the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. Therefore, errors will be caused if the relation between the change of the Brillouin gain coefficient and the strain is regarded as to be linear approximately for measuring the temperature and the strain. For this reason, the influence of the parameters on the Brillouin gain coefficient is proposed through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation.     

An improved parallel thinning algorithm with two subiterations

The parallel thinning algorithm with two subiterations is improved in this paper. By analyzing the notions of connected components and passes, a conclusion is drawn that the number of passes and the number of eight-connected components are equal. Then the expression of the number of eight-connected components is obtained which replaces the old one in the algorithm. And a reserving condition is proposed by experiments, which alleviates the excess deletion where a diagonal line and a beeline intersect. The experimental results demonstrate that the thinned curve is almost located in the middle of the original curve connectivelv with single pixel width and the processing speed is high.     

Novel fiber-optical interferometer with miniaturized probe for in-hole measurements

Today, micro-system technology and the development of new MEMS （Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems） are emerging rapidly. In order for this development to become a success in the long run, measurement systems have to ensure product quality. Most often, MEMS have to be tested by means of functionality or destructive tests. One reason for this is that there are no suitable systems or sensing probes available which can be used for the measurement of quasi inaccessible features like small holes or cavities. We present a measurement system that could be used for these kinds of measurements. The system combines a fiber optical, miniaturized sensing probe with low-coherence interferometry, so that absolute distance measurements with nanometer accuracy are possible.     

Study of waveguide coupling efficiency in hybrid silicon lasers

This paper presents a new method to increase the waveguide coupling efficiency in hybrid silicon lasers. We find that the propagation constant of the InGaAsP emitting layer can be equal to that of the Si resonant layer through improving the design size of the InP waveguide. The coupling power achieves 42% of the total power in the hybrid lasers when the thickness of the bonding layer is 100 nm. Our result is very close to 50% of the total power reported by Intel when the thickness of the thin bonding layer is less than 5 nm. Therefore, our invariable coupling power technique is simpler than Intel＇s.     

Teleportation of an arbitrary unknown N-qubit entangled state under the controlling of M controllers

A new quantum protocol to teleport an arbitrary unknown N-qubit entangled state from a sender to a fixed receiver under M controllers(M < N) is proposed. The quantum resources required are M non-maximally entangled Greenberger-Home-Zeilinger (GHZ) state and N-M non-maximally entangled Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) pairs. The sender performs N generalized Bell-state measurements on the 2N particles. Controllers take M single-particle measurement along x-axis, and the receiver needs to introduce one auxiliary two-level particle to extract quantum information probabilistically with the fidelity unit if controllers cooperate with it.     

Diode-end-pumped Nd:YVO4/LBO lasers with 4.2W continuous-wave output at 457 nm

A continuous-wave (CW) 457 nm blue laser operating at the power of 4.2 W is demonstrated by using a fiber coupled laser diode module pumped Nd: YVO4 and using LBO as the intra-cavity SHG crystal With the optimization of laser cavity and crystal parameters, the laser operates at a very high efficiency. When the pumping power is about 31 W, the output at 457nm reaches 4.2 W, and the optical to optical conversion efficiency is about 13.5% accordingly. The stability of the out putpower is better than 1.2% for 8 h continuously working.     

Call for Papers

正Wireless Body-area Networks The last decade has witnessed the convergence of three giant worlds:electronics,computer science and telecommunications.The next decade should follow this convergence in most of our activities with the generalization of sensor networks.In particular with the progress in medicine,people live longer and the aging of population will push the development of wireless personal networks     

Call for Papers—Feature Topic,Vol.12,No.7,2015

正Information Centric Networking Information-Centric Networking(ICN) is an emerging direction in Future Internet architecture research,gaining significant tractions among academia and industry.Aiming to replace the conventional host-to-host communication model by a data-centric model,ICN treats data content as the first