New Insights into the Appraisal of Flood-Alleviation Benefits: (2) the Broader Context

During the last twenty-five years, new approaches to the appraisal of flood-alleviation investment have developed. This paper (a) identifies some of the key data inputs to this process, (b) evaluates the impact of these on decision choices, and (c) explores the issues concerning the relationship between flood losses and flood probability.     

The White Cart Water Flood Alleviation Study using Hydrodynamic Mathematical-Modelling Techniques

This paper describes a hydrodynamic mathematical-modelling study to investigate the flooding problem and to recommend various flood-alleviation measures for the White Cart Water on the southern side of Glasgow. The mathematical model covers 36 km of the White Cart to the tidal reaches at the confluence with the River Clyde, and includes 7 km of one of the major tributaries where regular flooding is also a problem. A key aspect of the study was the close proximity of the modelling team which permitted a close scrutiny of the river during high-flow events. From these observations the team obtained a thorough appreciation of river behaviour during potential flood situations, which provided a reliable and comprehensive set of data for model calibration over a wide range of conditions. The proposals for flood alleviation have far-reaching implications and require major capital expenditure. At present they are being examined by Strathclyde Regional Council in consultation with the many interested parties.     

The Rio Salado Basin in Argentina: An Integrated Master Plan

Being close to Buenos Aires and with high production levels in the agriculture sector, the Rio Salado basin is an area which has always attracted investment. During the last century, considerable hydraulic drainage and flood-alleviation works were carried out to increase agricultural production in the region. However, during the last two decades, the catastrophic effects of flooding and the persistence of low agricultural productivity in most of the area, demonstrate that the interventions (which have been made so far) have been inadequate. Perhaps one of the key factors in the lack of success of historic hydraulic interventions has been the absence of a strategic/ integrated approach. This paper describes the first attempt at integrated river-basin planning in Argentina.     

增强现实技术于洪水风险沟通中的应用

气候变迁,特别是洪水问题给地处三角洲的城市带来了与日俱增的风险。作为应对手段,提出一种整合性的洪水风险管理方法,该方法确保了洪水风险沟通在洪水风险管理战略中的重要地位。洪水的可视化作为洪水风险沟通的一种工具,在改变人们对洪水风险的观念方面有着强大的作用。它可以通过互动的方式,使当地的利益相关者了解洪水的剩余风险和未来风险。其中增强现实技术作为一种可视化手段,它的快速发展与应用为风景园林设计、规划与教育等领域提供了崭新的交互方式。首先,探讨增强现实技术(AR)在洪水风险沟通中的应用现状,并重点关注增强现实技术的2个关键应用领域:对现场决策的支持和针对高层次设计的可视化与对景观干预的评估。随后,展示一种基于增强现实技术所开发的应用,该款创新性的应用为洪水风险沟通提供了一种轻量化的可视化手段。     

Extreme Historical UK Floods and Maximum Flood Estimation

Historical flood events recorded as flood marks on bridges and houses or reported in newspapers and journals provide valuable information on the maximum size of floods which are likely to occur in the UK. For hydrological analysis peak water level must be converted to peak discharge, which is problematic even when the flood has been recorded at a flow gauging station. This paper describes some of the methods used to calculate the magnitude of extreme floods. Sixty-nine historical UK floods are plotted on a graph of discharge versus drainage area and compared with curves published in 1933 and 1960 which were used to estimate the Normal Maximum Flood required for dam spillway design before 1975. From that date the design standard became the Probable Maximum Flood. PMF is calculated for 17 sites where extreme floods have occurred. For six events the observed peak discharge exceeded PMF. Possible reasons for these findings are discussed.     

Long-term versus Real-time Optimal Operation for Gate Regulation during Flood in Urban Drainage Systems

ABSTRACT

In this study, a simulation-optimization framework is built to present two approaches of long-term and real-time optimal operation for the regulation of gates during flood in urban drainage systems (UDSs). The modeling approaches are applied to a prototype network in a portion of the UDS of Tehran, Iran. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the number of decision variables of the optimization models. Results are then compared with those of an uncontrolled (UC) approach as a baseline business-as-usual scenario. It has been inferred that the two optimization approaches outperform the UC method. Additionally, the real-time optimal (RTOP) operation approach, benefiting from both the current system’s state and the latest storm data, is superior to the long-term optimal (LTOP) operation approach with respect to flood mitigation efficiency. The RTOP approach has the flexibility to adapt to changes in operational conditions when part of the system’s regulation capacity is lost.     

Development of a UK Database for Predicting Flood Levels for Overbank Flows

Every year, major disasters and the associated damage and loss in the UK cost millions of pounds. One of the many ways that river engineers have responded to this is to collect and upgrade the amount, and quality, of the information about floods (inland and coastal). This paper reports on a research project which aims to (a) consolidate all existing data on overbank flows over a range of scales, and (b) prepare them for publication on the 'worldwide web'. The data are classified into three major groups, i.e. small-scale models, large-scale models, and field data. The data contain information on stage discharge, cross-section geometry, channel-plan form, sinuosity, and channel boundary roughness. Using the collected data, a simplified dimensionless stage-discharge relationship is developed. The results reveal that, using this equation, the stage within 10%, and discharge within 20%, of the measured values can be predicted.     

工程造价分析及造价指数在项目实施中的作用

以工程造价作为评价工程项目投资合理性的主要依据。从控制工程投资和可行性研究阶段进行项目决策等方面,阐述了工程造价分析的重要作用。介绍了主要的工程造价指数和工程综合造价指数的用途。     

基于优化 DEA 模型对公路养护投资决策的有效性研究

为制定科学有效的养护决策,基于高速公路路面性能数据进行神经网络模拟预测了未来 5 个运营年限的路面性能,提出一种新的路面养护决策优化数据包络分析（DEA）模型。该模型以养护里程量、交通量和养护投入资金为输入指标,以路面使用性能恢复值为输出指标,对所提出的 13 种养护方案进行有效性评价,选出投入少、产出高的高效率方案。结果表明:综合考虑交通量、投入资金、产出效率和养护工作量等因素能够客观地筛选出高效率的养护方案。方案结果可为公路管理者做出合理养护决策提供有效依据。     

谈桥渡勘设中的洪水调查

结合水文资料的来源，介绍了洪水调查的内容、依据，根据历史洪水分析了洪水重现期的确定和推求设计洪水的方法，并例举了具体实例，以使水文资料收集更加完整。     

内力重分布设计法在躲水楼加固分析中的应用

基于内力重分布分析方法,提出了躲水楼结构加固方案.此方案节约投资,施工快,且施工时不对非加固结构产生扰动.     

The anatomy of investing in energy efficient buildings

A building investment is a real decision because the allocated resources are typically irrevocable for long times. Investment appraisal is a logic method to process elapsing time, uncertain benefits and costs, and irrevocability related to decisions. Most analysts stop halfway the appraisal process when they carefully assess net present values and their sensitivity to uncertain future events. But sidelining irrevocability and the dynamic sequential analysis of future events and actions cause wrong decisions when the energy performance endowment of a new building is decided. Irrevocability and preclusion are explained, and their impact illustrated with a case study. Adopting realistic assumptions about the uncertain future and applying the proper methodology reveal as financially best choice the immediate investment in passive attributes and items. Irrevocability is of high relevance for building efficiency investments and for the implementation of the EU-2010 buildings directive.     

小清河分洪区某工程的防洪评价研究

在收集大量地形及水文资料的基础上,对小清河分洪区的水流运动进行了二维数值计算,分析了洪水的运动及滞蓄规律,评价拟建工程对分洪区的防洪影响,评价结果表明：拟建工程对分洪区的蓄洪、滞洪影响很小。     

建设项目投资方案优选的熵权系数法

本文根据熵的概念 ,把建设项目投资方案多目标决策问题中的固有信息与决策者经验判断的主观信息进行量化与综合 ,进而建立了基于熵权的建设项目投资方案多目标优序评价模型 ,最后通过实例计算 ,说明该模型结构严谨、物理意义明确 ,决策结果更加合理、符合实际。     

房地产估价中非货币收益的量化研究

在房地产市场日趋成熟的条件下,收益法和市场比较法在房地产价格评估中被广泛地运用.而在估价实务中,这两种方法的估价结果往往会有较大差异.本文结合房地产投资收益理论以及效用理论,在对一系列房地产交易数据进行分析的基础上,剖析了问题产生的原因,并提出一种对房地产非货币收益进行量化的方法.     

Systems-of-systems methodology for strategic infrastructure decision making: Ireland as a case study

Infrastructure development is a long term process, which cannot easily adapt to sudden change; and infrastructure assets can have long lifetimes. Poor investment choices risk locking in poor policy choices for substantial periods of time. The ‘need’ for a new infrastructure asset arises due to demographic, economic or policy changes. But historically Ireland’s infrastructure investment has also been driven, in part, by the pursuit of political / economic policies which have themselves ‘created’ infrastructure needs; and often decided on an isolated project-by-project basis. In contrast, a systems-of-systems (SoS) approach is a fusion of network modelling, consideration of various policy options, and appraisal of the impact of alternative demographic and economic scenarios on multiple systems. This paper assesses Ireland’s readiness to adopt a SoS approach to infrastructure decision-making, proposes a methodology for its development and implementation. This would enable the demand for new infrastructure to be tested under various policy scenarios, providing evidence for investment decisions.     

River Thames Flood Hydrology Design Curves

A quick method of defining design peak flows and hydrographs for any point on the River Thames between Days weir and Teddington is offered as a design tool for flood analysis. This paper presents the findings of a flood frequency and flood hydrograph analysis for the River Thames. The results were used in a hydraulic analysis of the river and its floodplain at Reading, but showed a wider application of the method on the river.     

长汀城市建设区洪水淹没风险研究

洪水淹没风险分析是进行城市防洪安全研究、合理布局城市建设用地的主要依据之一。本文基于GIS栅格数据空间分析技术,结合了传统淹没分析方法,使用长汀城市建设区地形和洪水水文数据资料,对研究区在10%、5%、2%三种频率下的洪水淹没风险进行了定量化分析,提出了城市建设用地控制原则,为城市规划中协调城市防洪安全与城市建设用地布局提供了有价值的参考。研究结果显示研究区洪水淹没风险总体上较高,城市已建设区洪水淹没风险高于其他区域。     

Reassessing productivity in the construction sector to reflect hidden innovation and the knowledge economy

With the development of a knowledge economy, it is reasonable to assume that the level of innovation should be particularly high and that it should have a major effect on investment and productivity across all sectors, including the construction industry. For a valid assessment of the economic performance of the construction sector in terms of its productivity, it is important that the economic benefits for the sector from technological change are properly recognized but the impact of such benefits may be ‘hidden’ due to measurement issues, as innovative activity and investment in intangible assets have both gone unrecognized in official statistics. Much of the innovation in the construction sector is hidden from conventional measures and, for the UK economy, there is evidence that investment in intangibles may be even greater than tangible investment, if a definition of intangible assets incorporating spending on a broad range of knowledge‐based assets including organizational capital, human capital, etc. is taken. While accurate data are difficult to determine, an appraisal of the potential for utilizing existing data sources and for improved measurement is presented.     

国防工程建设项目经济评价方法初探

长期以来,由于国防工程投资主体单一、不以盈利为目的等特点,国防工程建设项目经济评价一直不被重视,从而缺乏适当的评价指标和方法。运用定性指标和定量指标相结合的方法,综合考虑费用-效益、费用-效果评价、国防效果评价和社会效果评价,建立综合评价指标体系,并用灰色系统的方法进行评价和实例验证是对国防工程建设项目评价方法进行的初步探讨。