Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5–10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential.     

Public opinion about large offshore wind power: Underlying factors

This paper address factors underlying public opinion regarding offshore wind power based on a survey of residents near a proposed development off Cape Cod, MA, USA. Supporters are found to be younger, better educated, and more likely to own their own home. Opponents are more likely to earn over $200,000/year, and more likely to expect to see the project from their daily routine. The overwhelming majority of the population expects negative impacts from the project; much smaller numbers expect positive effects. When asked which factors most affected their position, the most frequently mentioned was damage to marine life/environmental impacts, followed by electricity rates, aesthetics, and impacts on fishing or boating. When the expectations expressed by our respondents are compared with the findings of the project's draft Environmental Impact Statement, many of the beliefs upon which opinion are based appear to be factually incorrect. Finally, we tested whether change in the project would affect support. The biggest change was an increase in the level of support, by 47% of the sample, if the project was the first of 300 such projects, in sum having proportionately larger impacts as well as greater benefits. Implications of this research are discussed.     

A comparative analysis of business structures suitable for farmer-owned wind power projects in the United States

For years, farmers in the United States have looked with envy on their European counterparts’ ability to profitably farm the wind through ownership of distributed, utility-scale wind projects. Only within the past few years, however, has farmer- or community-owned wind power development become a reality in the United States. The primary hurdle to this type of development in the United States has been devising and implementing suitable business and legal structures that enable such projects to take advantage of tax-based federal incentives for wind power. This article discusses the limitations of such incentives in supporting farmer- or community-owned wind projects, describes four ownership structures that potentially overcome such limitations, and finally conducts comparative financial analysis on those four structures, using as an example a hypothetical 1.5 MW farmer-owned project located in the state of Oregon. We find that material differences in the competitiveness of each structure do exist, but that choosing the best structure for a given project will largely depend on the conditions at hand; e.g., the ability of the farmer(s) to utilize tax credits, preference for individual versus “cooperative” ownership, and the state and utility service territory in which the project will be located.     

Robust incentives and the design of a climate change governance regime

In building a governance regime to address climate change, should we prioritize the development of global institutions or national ones? This paper focuses on two neglected characteristics to inform the governance problem: the incentives for investment in low-carbon energy technology and the influence of historical policy volatility. Examining a case study of an important low-carbon energy technology, wind power, this study finds: (1) policy volatility has been substantial, (2) policy changes were uncorrelated across jurisdictions, suggesting that (3) investors could have substantially reduced their exposure to the risk of policy volatility by operating globally. While it also has downsides, a poorly coordinated international policy regime has the advantage of reducing the risk associated with a global policy failure. Beyond this case study, the importance of this positive effect depends on: the probability of policy failures in each country, the correlations among them, and the probability of a global policy failure.     

Nuclear power,climate change and energy security: Exploring British public attitudes

Public attitudes towards nuclear power in the UK have historically been deeply divided, but as concern about climate change and energy security has exerted an increasing influence on British energy policy, nuclear power has been reframed as a low-carbon technology. Previous research has suggested that a significant proportion of people may ‘reluctantly accept’ nuclear power as a means of addressing the greater threat of climate change. Drawing on the results of a national British survey (n=1822), the current study found that attitudes towards nuclear remain divided, with only a minority expressing unconditional acceptance. In general, people who expressed greater concern about climate change and energy security and possessed higher environmental values were less likely to favour nuclear power. However, when nuclear power was given an explicit ‘reluctant acceptance’ framing – allowing people to express their dislike for nuclear power alongside their conditional support – concerns about climate change and energy security became positive predictors of support for nuclear power. These findings suggest that concern about climate change and energy security will only increase acceptance of nuclear power under limited circumstances—specifically once other (preferred) options have been exhausted.     

Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower.     

Forecasting method of monthly wind power generation based on climate model and long short-term memory neural network

Predicting wind power generation over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatching departments, as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions. This study presents a monthly wind power generation forecasting method based on a climate model and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. A nonlinear mapping model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours. After considering the meteorological data (as predicted for the future) and new installed capacity planning, the monthly wind power generation forecast results are output. A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.     

A probabilistic security assessment approach to power systems with integrated wind resources

Renewable energy sources, such as wind and photovoltaic solar, have added additional uncertainty to power systems. These sources, further to the conventional sources of uncertainty due to stochastic nature of both the load and the availability of generation resources and transmission assets, make clear the limitations of the conventional deterministic power flow in power system analysis and security assessment applications. In order to manage uncertainties, probabilistic approaches can provide a valuable contribution.In this paper, we propose a new scheme for probabilistic security assessment. The model can deal with various types of probability distributions modeling power injections and can explicitly represent the effects on system security of correlation among nodal power injections (such as wind power) and of contingencies due to branch and generating unit outages. In addition, the steady-state behavior of the frequency regulation is explicitly included in the model. A new approach to deal with current limits is also proposed.Extensive testing on both the modified IEEE-14 bus test system and the Sicilian power system indicates good performance of the proposed approach in comparison with the result obtained by the computationally more demanding Monte Carlo approach.     

The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues—which is illustrated by the controversy over the “no-regret potential”—would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach.     

Wind power price trends in the United States: Struggling to remain competitive in the face of strong growth

The amount of wind power capacity being installed globally is surging, with the United States the world leader in terms of annual market share for three years running (2005–2007). The rapidly growing market for wind has been a double-edged sword, however, as the resulting supply-demand imbalance in wind turbines, along with the rising cost of materials and weakness in the US dollar, has put upward pressure on wind turbine costs, and ultimately, wind power prices. Two mitigating factors–reductions in the cost of equity provided to wind projects and improvements in project-level capacity factors–have helped to relieve some of the upward pressure on wind power prices over the last few years. Because neither of these two factors can be relied upon to further cushion the blow going forward, policymakers should recognize that continued financial support may be necessary to sustain the wind sector at its current pace of development, at least in the near term. Though this article emphasizes developments in the US market for wind power, those trends are similar to, and hold implications for, the worldwide wind power market.     

Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States

Wind-generated electricity is a growing renewable energy resource. Because wind results from the uneven heating (and resulting pressure gradients) of the Earth, future wind resources may be affected by anticipated climate change. Many studies have used global and regional climate models to predict trends in the future wind resource over the continental United States. While some of these studies identified regions that are expected to gain wind energy, their results often come with a high degree of uncertainty, and lack of agreement across different climate models. In this paper we focus on wind energy density as a measure of the available wind resource over the continental United States. We estimate the change in wind energy density from the period 1968–2000 to the period 2038–2070 by using output from four regional climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We find strong agreement across all 4 models that the wind energy resource is expected to increase in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – a region already in possession of both large scale generating capacity and political support for wind energy.     

Understanding the variability of wind power costs

Wind power has a significant contribution to make in efforts to abate CO₂ emissions from global energy systems. Currently, wind power generation costs are approaching parity with costs attributed to conventional, carbon-based sources of energy but the economic advantage still rests decidedly with conventional sources. Therefore, there is an imperative to ensure that wind power projects are developed in the most economically optimal fashion. For wind power project developers, shaving a few tenths of a cent off of the kilowatts per hour cost of wind power can mean the difference between a commercially viable project and a non-starter. For civic authorities who are responsible for managing municipally supported wind power projects, optimizing the economics of such projects can attenuate stakeholder opposition. This paper attempts to contribute to a better understanding of how to economically optimise wind power projects by conflating research from the fields of energy economics, wind power engineering, aerodynamics, geography and climate science to identify critical factors that influence the economic optimization of wind power projects.     

Implementation of wind power in the Norwegian market; the reason why some of the best wind resources in Europe were not utilised by 2010

Norway has some of the best wind resources in Europe. In 1999, the Norwegian Parliament committed to attain an annual onshore wind power production goal of 3.0 TWh by 2010; however, in 2010, onshore wind power production measured only 1.0 TWh. This article discusses the reasons that this goal was not achieved. The analysis addresses the key figures on the strategic, tactical and operational levels. This model is combined with a time line that seeks to define when different actors should have secured concessions¹ and funding to achieve the goal. After introducing the time line, a list of questions is introduced for these key actors. The three-level model, the time line and the questions constitute the analytical framework. Explanations for the failure to achieve the goal may be identified on all three levels. However, the primary explanatory factors were political uncertainty in the support scheme and wind power's role in the energy market in general; both of these factors are identified on the strategic level. Uncertainty on the strategic level influenced the lower levels, which led to bottlenecks in the concession process and jittery investors who thought that the risk of investment in wind power was too high.     

On the wind energy resources of Sudan

The imminent exhaustion of fossil energy resources and the increasing demand for energy were the motives for those reasonable in Sudan to put into practice an energy policy based on rational use of energy; and on exploitation of new, and renewable energy sources. After 1980, as the supply of conventional energy has not been able to follow the tremendous increase of the production demand in rural areas of Sudan, a renewed interest for the application of wind energy has shown in many places. Therefore, the Sudanese government began to pay more attention to wind energy utilisation in rural areas. Because the wind energy resource in many rural areas is sufficient for attractive application of wind pumps, and as fuel is insufficient, the wind pumps will be spread on a rather large scale in the near future. Wind is a form of renewable energy, which is always in a non-steady state due to the wide temporal and spatial variations of wind velocity. A number of years worth of data concerning wind speed in Sudan have been compiled, evaluated and presented in this article. The need for the provision of new data stations in order to enable a complete and reliable assessment of the overall wind power potential of the country is identified and specific locations suggested. This paper presents the background and ideas of the development of the concept as well as the main results, and experience gained during ongoing project up to now. In Sudan, various designs of wind machines for water pumping have been developed and some designs are presently manufactured commercially. Results suggest that wind power would be more profitably used for local-and small-scale applications especially for remote rural areas. It is concluded that Sudan is blessed with abundant wind energy.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.     

Investigation on wind power potential on Hong Kong islands—an analysis of wind power and wind turbine characteristics

This paper discusses the potential for electricity generation on Hong Kong islands through an analysis of the local weather data and typical wind turbine characteristics. An optimum wind speed, u_op, is proposed to choose an optimal type of wind turbine for different weather conditions. A simulation model has been established to describe the characteristics of a particular wind turbine. A case study investigation allows wind speed and wind power density to be obtained using different hub heights, and the annual power generated by the wind turbine to be simulated. The wind turbine's capacity factor, being the ratio of actual annual power generation to the rated annual power generation, is shown to be 0.353, with the capacity factor in October as high as 0.50. The simulation shows the potential for wind power generation on the islands surrounding Hong Kong.     

Profiling the regional wind power fluctuation in China

As China starts to build 6 10-GW wind zones in 5 provinces by 2020, accommodating the wind electricity generated from these large wind zones will be a great challenge for the regional grids. Inadequate wind observing data hinders profiling the wind power fluctuations at the regional grid level. This paper proposed a method to assess the seasonal and diurnal wind power patterns based on the wind speed data from the NASA GEOS-5 DAS system, which provides data to the study of climate processes including the long-term estimates of meteorological quantities. The wind power fluctuations for the 6 largest wind zones in China are presented with both the capacity factor and the megawatt wind power output. The measured hourly wind output in a regional grid is compared to the calculating result to test the analyzing model. To investigate the offsetting effect of dispersed wind farms over large regions, the regional correlations of hourly wind power fluctuations are calculated. The result illustrates the different offsetting effects of minute and hourly fluctuations.     

Preliminary evaluation of the Section 1603 treasury grant program for renewable power projects in the United States

This article evaluates the first year of the Section 1603 Treasury cash grant program, which enables renewable power projects in the US to elect cash grants in lieu of the federal tax credits that are otherwise available. To date, the program has been heavily subscribed, particularly by wind power projects, which had received 86% of the nearly $2.6 billion in grants that had been disbursed as of March 1, 2010. As of that date, 6.2 GW of the 10 GW of new wind capacity installed in the US in 2009 had applied for grants in lieu of production tax credits. Roughly 2.4 GW of this wind capacity may not have otherwise been built in 2009 in the absence of the grant program; this 2.4 GW may have supported approximately 51,600 short-term full-time-equivalent (FTE) gross job-years in the US during the construction phase of these wind projects, and 3860 long-term FTE gross jobs during the operational phase. The program’s popularity stems from the significant economic value that it provides to renewable power projects, relative to the otherwise available tax credits. Although grants reward investment rather than efficient performance, this evaluation finds no evidence at this time of either widespread “gold-plating” or performance problems.     

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator – New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.     

The assessment of actual wind power availability in ireland

Data on actual wind energy availability in Ireland are sparse. This is because (a) relatively little data on wind speeds have been collected in Ireland at sites of interest for wind exploitation, and (b) such data need in any case to be integrated with the characteristics of actual windmills which respond more efficiently to certain wind speed than to others. This paper describes a methodology for performing such an integration, and offers tables of specific output for windmills of different characteristics located at different sites in Ireland. the variations in this specific output are discussed.