Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: Important variables and their correlation

Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather conditions present at its site. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproduction. In this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters, we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We report on the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly supplied weather data.     

Are the alternative energy strategies achievable?

The constraints on penetration of energy technologies are time and information, net energy, and capital cost. As D. Spreng has pointed out, time, energy, and information constitute a triad: energy can be substituted for time, information can be substituted for energy. That energy can save time follows from irreversible thermodynamics, but the principle can be extended to the social sphere. Related to the energy-time exchange is the economic cost of intermittency of energy supply. Renewable energy sources, particularly solar sources, are characteristically intermittent. To eliminate intermittency imposes a cost which must be considered in planning energy futures based on renewable sources. Two other constraints on penetration of energy technologies—net energy and capital cost—are briefly considered. As for net energy, estimates of energy paybacks for solar thermal electric converters differ by factors of three; this introduces large uncertainties in the energy subsidy required for this technology. As for capital cost, the Peterka theory of technological change is shown to place limits on the amount of subsidy required to introduce a new energy technology.     

欧洲可持续能源政策及对我国的启示

欧洲能源政策的目标是力求在不增加能源供应总量的前提下保持经济持续发展,保障能源供应安全、加强环境保护和提高经济竞争力。在管理体制上建立了负责能源政策研究、制订、实施和监督的专门机构。最重要的措施是节能和发展可再生能源,重点领域包括建筑节能、企业节能、热电联产和可再生能源。欧洲可持续能源政策对我国的能源发展有一定借鉴意义,我们的能源政策应在保障满足经济和社会发展需要的同时,提高能源效率,发展清洁能源,加强能源与环境的协调,并在体制上为可持续能源战略的实施消除障碍。另外,还应考虑建立清洁能源基金等措施为可持续能源政策的实施提供资金保障。     

海洋可再生能源技术发展现状及对策建议

海洋能是一种清洁无污染、蕴藏量丰富的可再生新能源。随着化石能源不断枯竭和低碳减排的迫切要求,世界各国对开发海洋能源产业愈加重视,各种海洋能发电技术得到了不断突破,其中,英国等欧美国家已进入商业化运作前期。文章介绍了国内外海洋能发电技术的最新进展以及已建、在建和计划筹建的工程项目情况。从政策、技术研发、资金及人才培养等方面,提出了我国发展海洋可再生能源产业的对策建议。     

Energy design investigation for the Greek area of the North Aegean Sea

This paper describes an investigation of the energy design in the area of the North Aegean Sea. The future energy consumption is predicted until 2010 using simple statistic models for each economic sector such as domestic, tertiary and agricultural, transport, industry, etc. Three different energy design scenarios have been developed for predicting the energy consumption for each economic sector. These scenarios present three major energy evolutions: a conventionally expected energy evolution (business as usual); an energy saving evolution; and a combination of energy saving with simultaneous exploitation of renewable energy sources. The energy design investigation for the area of the North Aegean Sea is mainly based on simple statistic analysis on data describing the energy balance for each economic sector and kind of energy use. This energy balance analysis for the area of the North Aegean Sea has been performed in the present study in order to be furthermore used in the energy design investigation.     

科学发展观指导下的中国能源发展战略

能源发展战略是对能源总体发展的部署、谋划和设计。我国能源发展战略既是在科学发展观指导下制定的,又是科学发展观的重要组成部分。我国能源发展战略的基本内容是坚持节约优先、立足国内、多元发展、保护环境、科技创新、深化改革、国际合作、改善民生,推进能源生产和利用方式变革,构建安全、稳定、经济、清洁的现代能源产业体系,努力以能源的可持续发展支撑经济社会的可持续发展。构建可持续发展的能源体系是我国能源发展战略的核心。坚持节约资源的基本国策,加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会,是贯彻落实科学发展观、实现可持续发展的必然要求,这为我国在科学发展观指导下制定能源资源安全战略提供了依据。加强国际能源合作是能源发展战略的重要内容。需要从战略高度充分认识做好能源资源工作的重要性和紧迫性,按照科学发展观指导下的能源安全战略的指引,科学谋划我国能源发展的总体方略,促进中国能源产业的健康、有序、可持续发展。     

国内外能耗监测控制管理理论与实践

能耗监测是能源管理中的重要环节,国外不少国家在这方面都进行了积极的努力,制定了一些相关政策,并取得了一部分研究成果.我国于上世纪90年代初就出台了关于能耗监测的有关规定,2007年颁布的《单位GDP能耗监测体系实施方案》规定了能耗监测的主体、主要内容和指标.工业、交通运输和建筑是我国三大“耗能大户”,因此能耗监测研究和管理实践也主要集中在这三个领域.信息技术的发展为工业企业的能耗监测提供了基础平台,运用计算机信息技术对能耗实行现代化管理,成为企业实现信息化管理、降低成本的一种重要手段.道路交通约占我国交通运输业能耗的75％,因而对道路交通能耗的监测是交通运输业能耗监测的主要任务,而对机车能耗的监测是铁路运输能耗监测的主要内容之一.建筑能耗监测主要针对大型公共建筑,通过信息化手段进行信息采集及能耗监测.目前有关能耗监测的研究还处于起步阶段,尚未全面展开,能耗监测技术还不成熟,监测设备也不齐全.今后除了要继续探索能耗监测技术以外,还应重点加强对主要行业能耗监测控制管理体系的研究.     

Energy efficiency and renewable energy policy in the Czech Republic within the framework of accession to the European Union

The main barrier for end-use energy efficiency and renewable energy in the Czech Republic is the lack of a stable political and regulatory framework. Market incentives can only properly work if the market conditions and restrictions are clear and stable. However, no comprehensive policies and regulation have been implemented in the Czech Republic. Although the acquis communautaire of the European Union includes regulation on energy efficiency and renewable energy, this topic remains low on the negotiation agenda for accession. This paper reports on the current situation in the Czech Republic, including the potentials for end-use energy efficiency and renewable energy, on the existing policy and regulatory framework, and on the remaining gaps with the requirements of accession to the European Union. Also, the impact of the recent increase of nuclear capacity on energy efficiency and renewable energy in the Czech Republic is discussed.     

Three dimensional energy profile:: A conceptual framework for assessing household energy use

The provision of adequate, reliable, and affordable energy has been considered as a cornerstone of development. More than one-third of the world's population has a very limited access to modern energy services and suffers from its various negative consequences. Researchers have been exploring various dimensions of household energy use in order to design strategies to provide secure access to modern energy services. However, despite more than three decades of effort, our understanding of household energy use patterns is very limited, particularly in the context of rural regions of the developing world. Through this paper, the past and the current trends in the field of energy analysis are investigated. The literature on rural energy and energy transition in developing world has been explored and the factors affecting households' decisions on energy use are listed. The and the factors affecting households' decisions on energy use are listed. The gaps identified in the literature on rural household energy analysis provide a basis for developing an alternative model that can create a more realistic view of household energy use. The three dimensional energy profile is presented as a new conceptual model for assessment of household energy use. This framework acts as a basis for building new theoretical and empirical models of rural household energy use.     

The persistence of energy poverty: A dynamic probit analysis

This paper contributes to the growing literature on energy poverty in developing countries. We use a dynamic probit estimator on three rounds of panel data from urban Ethiopia to estimate a model of the probability of being energy poor and to investigate the persistence of energy poverty. We also study the impact of energy price inflation, which Ethiopia experienced during 2007–2009, on energy use and energy poverty. We find strong evidence of state dependence in energy poverty. A household that is energy poor in one round is up to 16% more likely to be energy poor in the subsequent round. Dynamic probit regression results also suggest that an increase in the price of kerosene – the most important fuel for the urban poor – drives households into energy poverty. A fractional response estimator for panel data, which estimates the impact of energy prices on the proportion of energy obtained from clean sources, also supports the finding on the adverse impact of energy price inflation. Households responded to the significant rise in the price of kerosene by consuming a large amount of charcoal, which has been documented to have serious environmental, climate, and health consequences. Our results have significant implications for policies formulated to reduce energy poverty, conserve biomass resources, and promote energy transition in developing countries.     

Renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius—an investor’s perspective

The main purpose of the paper is to explore the renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius. Magnum Power, an engineering firm in India promoting renewable energy technologies, conducted a feasibility study to identify the possibilities of investments on various renewable energy projects in Mauritius. The study analysed the Mauritius energy scenario, the earlier and recent renewable energy projects, the current status of such projects, the barriers for renewable energy developments, and the suitable renewable energy technology for fruitful investment. Based on the study outcome, an investment proposal for a 10 MW wind farm project is presented, which would be a useful guideline for investors looking for investment opportunities in Mauritius.     

电力系统中分布式跨链能源交易模型

随着能源互联网的发展,越来越多的分布式电源接入电网,形成了众多的异构能源网络.然而,不同的能源网络在集中式管理模式下,不能进行高效的能源交易,这严重影响了异构能源的互补能力,导致了能源孤岛现象.在模型中,相同种类的能源在链内交易,不同链上的异构能源跨链进行交易.为了更高效地在异构能源网络间进行能源交易,该文提出了基于区...     

Drivers for renewable energy: A comparison among OECD countries

The difference in the shares of renewable energy in total primary energy supply among OECD countries is immense. We attempt to identify some key factors that may have driven this difference for renewable energy in general and bioenergy in particular. We found that besides country-specific factors, gross national product (GDP) and renewable energy and bioenergy market deployment policies have significant and positive impacts on the per capita supply of both renewable energy and bioenergy in OECD countries. R&D expenditures, energy prices, CO₂ emissions, and other energy policies are statistically insignificant in terms of their impact on renewable energy and bioenergy supply. However, this does not necessarily mean that they are not potential drivers for renewable energy and bioenergy, but rather suggests that their magnitudes have not been big enough to significantly influence energy supply based on the historical data from 1994 to 2003. These findings lead to useful policy implications for countries attempting to promote renewable energy and bioenergy development.     

Analysis of China's energy utilization for 2007

China is the world's second-largest energy producer and consumer, so that it is very necessary to analyze China's energy situation for saving energy consumption and reducing GHG emission. Energy flow chart is taken as a useful tool for sorting out and displaying energy statistics data. Energy statistics data is the premise and foundation for analyzing energy situation. However, there exit many differences between China and foreign energy balance. Based on the international criterion of energy balance and some advices given by related experts, the author properly adjusts China's energy balance. And the purpose of this paper is to draft China's energy flow chart for 2007, which is used to study the characteristics of energy production and consumption in China. We find that: (1) coal is the main energy in China, which accounted for 73.2% of total energy supply in 2007; (2) thermal power accounted for 83.2% of the total electricity supply, and 78.43% thermal power was based on coal; (3) in 2007, the secondary industrial sector consumed about 69.93% of energy; (4) China's energy utilization efficiency was about 33.23% in 2007.     

Energy at your service: highlighting energy usage systems in the context of energy efficiency analysis

Increasing energy efficiency has for a long time been identified as an important means of mitigating climate change. However, the full potential for technical energy efficiency has seldom been fully exploited. The traditional approach in energy systems analysis and policy is still largely supply-orientated, i.e. focusing on the management of energy conversion, production and distribution, and final use of energy in the form of energy carriers. This paper contributes to previous discussions on how to highlight and explore the user side in the analysis of energy systems in an efficiency context. The energy usage systems approach, including end-use technologies and the production of service demanded by a human activity system, is used to promote a dynamic bottom-up perspective on energy. In determining the possible potential for change by increasing energy efficiency, the demand for energy should not be considered synonymous with the demand for neither energy carriers, nor the measurable service volumes (such as kilometres travelled, square metre conditioned space, etc.), without considering the sociocultural context in which the service is being used or called upon. In summary, the predominant paradigm dealing with the energy system as a technical system managing resources and providing energy carriers should thus be complemented with the view of a socio-technical system facilitating and/or managing the services.     

正确解读能耗统计数据准确把握节能降耗形势

正确解读能耗统计数据,对推进节能工作具有重要意义。本文探讨了能耗统计数据指标间的相互关系,并结合2009年上半年云南省能源消费情况,分析了全省节能降耗形势和能耗数据匹配性问题,对区域经济发展与节能降耗提出了工作建议。     

Quantifying the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvements and energy conserving behaviour in Sweden

Doubts have recurrently been raised on the extent to which energy efficiency can reduce the demand for energy. Improvements in efficiency may cause so-called rebound effects by reducing the prices of energy services as well as by increasing the budget for consumption of other goods and services. The magnitude of such effects is crucial to whether energy efficiency should be a strategy for environmental policy or not. This paper aims to derive a general expression of the rebound effects of household consumption in a parameterised form where available data can be tested. The paper analyses how different parameter assumptions affect the quantification of rebound effects and what may be reasonable ranges. Income effects are quantified using data from the Swedish Household Budget Survey of different goods and services split on income classes. The changes in consumption patterns with increasing income are used to establish the composition of marginal consumption. Combined with energy intensities derived from input–output analysis, this gives a model of how money saved on energy use in one sector may lead to increased energy use in other sectors. The total rebound effects of energy efficiency improvements appear to be in the range 5–15% in most cases, but these results are fairly sensitive to assumptions of energy service price elasticities. Cases with low or negative capital costs for energy efficiency improvements may also result in much higher rebound effects as the income effects become more important. Energy-conserving behaviour (reduced energy service demand) affecting direct energy use such as heating and transport gives rise to rebound effects in the order of 10–20%, depending on the household expenditure per primary energy for different fuels and energy carriers.     

我国石油资源和能源可持续发展战略问题探析

针对“一旦石油用完,人类的社会经济活动将如何延续”的问题,结合我国具体国情,提出相应的短期和中长期战略措施,详细分析了我国在天然气水合物、太阳能、核聚变能、月球资源等石油替代能源开发上的进展情况和应用推广前景,在此基础上提出加大力度研发石油的替代能源,争取在地球石油用尽前让新的替代能源尤其是太阳能和核聚变的应用“商业化,”这样我国能源的可持续发展难题方有可能得到根本的解决。     

Clean energy and energy storage research --The 2nd international conference on clean energy sciences

每3年举行1次的国际清洁能源会议(ICCES)旨在促进国际合作和交流,为在清洁能源和能源储存领域工作的国际研究者提供一个讨论清洁能源基础研究和技术革新的论坛.本文总结了2014年4月13~16日在中国青岛召开的第二届国际清洁能源会议的学术报告情况,特别是关于清洁能源和能源存储研究的最新进展及其未来科学发展所面临的挑战和根本问题.材料与纳米技术依然是解决清洁能源利用,转换和储存的关键;具有广泛应用基础的太阳能转化,电化学能量转化与储存,光催化与环境催化依然是研究热点;同时,清洁煤及化石燃料,生物燃料和生物质转化,生物和仿生系统的能源转化正在成为新的研究热点;而氢气制备与储存,二氧化碳捕获储存与使用等体系也引起了大家的广泛兴趣和关注.本文重点评述了清洁能源领域的研究重点,进展和热点问题.     

Comparison of renewable fuels based on their land use using energy densities

In this article energy densities of selected renewable fuels are determined. Energy density is defined here as the annual energy production per hectare, taking energy inputs into account. Using 5 scenarios, consisting of 1 set focusing on technical differences and 1 set focusing on geographical variations, the range of energy densities currently obtained in Europe was determined for the following fuels: biodiesel from rapeseed; bioethanol from sugar beet; electricity from wood, wind and solar PV.The energy densities of the fuels produced from biomass were calculated by determining the energy contained in the energy carrier produced from the crop annually produced on 1 ha, from which the energy inputs for crop cultivation and conversion were subtracted. For wind and solar electricity, the energy density calculation was based on the energy production per turbine or cell and the number of turbines or cells per hectare after which the manufacturing energy was subtracted.Comparing the results shows that, for the average energy density scenarios, the ratio between the energy densities for wind, solar, and biomass is approximately 100:42:1, with wind electricity also having the highest energy output/input ratio.A case study was done in which the energy density was used to calculate the distance a vehicle can cover using the energy carrier annually produced per hectare. This was done for 3 regions, in Mid-Sweden, North-Netherlands, and South-East Spain. The results of the case show that wind electricity results in the largest distance covered, except in Spain, where solar electricity is the most favourable option.