The 1970s migration turnaround in Japan revisited: A shift-share approach

Like many developed countries, Japan showed a drastic reduction in net population inflow to the core regions in the 1970s. This paper examines the contribution of a changing supply of highly mobile young adults, as well as employment growth, to this trend. Shift-share analysis of the change in migration patterns reveals that the main cause was a greatly reduced rate of out-migration from the peripheral regions by young adults.     

Testing the recession theory as an explanation for the migration turnaround

"In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround."     

Estimation of migration profiles in England and Wales

"Migration profiles by age have been increasingly used in the analysis of migration data, and a theoretical function has been developed by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This paper refines the approach by applying the principles of maximum likelihood to the estimation of the coefficients for the function. This enhances the statistical basis and in particular enables [the authors] to carry out tests of similarity between different areas on the basis of the calibrated coefficients. The method is applied to 1971 Census data for the local authorities of England and Wales."     

Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."     

An economic analysis of migration in Mexico

This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960–1970 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. The results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earlings levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of in-migration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earnings levels have greater rates of out-migration.The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earnings levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earnings levels have lower associated elasticities of migration.It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.This research was supported by Grant Number 1-RO-1-HD08567-01 from the Population and Reproduction Grants Branch, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Part of this study was completed at the Food Research Institute, Stanford University, where J. R. Ladman was a Visiting Scholar. We are grateful to Barry Edmonston and Dudley Kirk for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Responsibility for remaining shortcomings remains ours.     

The structure and dynamics of population migration among economic areas in the United States from 1990 to 2011

This study constructs the population migration networks among economic areas in the United States for every consecutive year from 1990 to 2011, and examines their structural properties and population migration dynamics. Various aspects of the structural properties of the networks are explored, including the connectivity, clustering, assortativity and centrality. It was found that these structural properties are mediated by migration dynamics and inter‐area distance, and the patterns of varying structural properties across areas of different connectivity reveal the hub‐and‐spoke structure of the networks. It is evident that there exists tremendous complexity in migration connectivity and dynamics in the US internal migration system.     

The changed and changing economy of New England

In this paper, the authors propose to review the changed and changing economic structure of New England, and to project to the year 2000 New England's real gross regional product together with the real gross products of the region's ten component industries.Utilizing the time series data from 1958 to 1973 provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the authors found that the overall movements of expansion and contraction are surprisingly similar at the regional and national levels, but New England's economic structure of industry mix as measured by each industry's contribution to the total is different from that of the United States.To further delineate the difference, semi-logarithmic functions were fitted to estimate the annual growth rates of the real gross products as well as the rates of shift of the industrial shares themselves.     

Single-place alternative opportunities in an economic model of migration

Inspired by Samuel Stouffer's work on alternative opportunities in the gravity model of migration, Levy and Wadycki developed a specification for incorporating this concept in an economic model of migration. Subsequent testing has confirmed the statistical relevance of the alternative opportunity concept across a number of countries and time periods.The present paper refines the definition of alternative opportunities so that the best alternative variables all come from the same location. In the original formulation, the best alternative variable is the optimum value within a circle determined by the origin and destination points. That formulation permits different locations to provide the best alternatives for the economic variables in the model. The single-place approach of the present paper is more consistent with the migrant's utility calculus which determines a single best alternative location. Using United States data for two time periods, we find that the empirical results support this new formulation.Research for this paper was supported by a University of Illinois Sabbatical Leave and by the services of the University of Illinois at Chicago Computer Center.     

Knowledge-based spatial differences in economic activity,job related migration and housing related migration

This paper analyzes the mutual effects of growth of cities and migration between cities. A model in which cities manufacture goods in a traditional sector and in a technological sector, and each city exhibits independently learning-by-doing in the latter sector is presented. The possibility that the development of one city prevents the development of the other is demonstrated. The higher wage in the developed city attracts the talented residents of the less developed city, to which less talented residents migrate in search of lower housing prices, thus creating bi-directional migration that reinforces the above result. An empirical analysis of the differences between job-related migration and housing-related migration in the U.S. is conducted, finding that these two streams are indeed in-line with the model’s prediction. Implications for regional development policies are discussed.     

New directions in migration research

This paper takes several surveys of the literature concerning migration research as its starting point and directs the reader toward a number of potentially fruitful lines for future research. Major sections include one on modeling migrant choice in which the pros and cons of using gross versus net migration measures are discussed. A second introduces and discusses the concept of a spatial choice set, which has the potential to be implemented with laboratory experimental techniques. The third involves a wide-ranging discussion of new directions in modeling the interrelationships between employment and migration.This paper was prepared in connection with the Western Regional Science Association's President's Panel, Molokai, Hawaii, February 1990.     

Quantifying distribution-system operators' economic incentives to promote residential demand response

Demand response (DR) from end-users is widely investigated as a power-system flexibility resource in a European smart-grid environment. Limited knowledge exists on the added value such flexibility can bring to actors in the electricity value chain. This work investigates the economic effect of consumption flexibility under current regulatory remuneration on distribution-system operators with a Swedish case study. Results indicate DR leads to savings for the distribution-system operator, which might be used towards smart-grid investments. Peak demand is and will continue to be a main driver for grid costs and therefore should be a focal point in tariff design.     

成都地铁天府广场站盾构机调头技术

指出盾构机的调头是一项复杂的工作,需要各部门协同工作,结合成都地铁盾构机调头的工程实例,对盾构调头的技术进行了探讨,以积累盾构调头施工经验.保证地铁工程的顺利进行.     

The demographics and politics of economic decline in New York City

New York City's economy has been declining since 1969. Although this decline is usually discussed with reference to interregional shifts in population and the migration of industry to the South and West, the root causes can be best understood in terms of the changing demographic, political and economic matrix of the City combined with short-sighted public policies toward business development.After explaining some important aspects of the political economy of economic erosion in New York City, the paper suggests several local government policy alternatives that might help to reverse the tide of economic decline.     

凤凰涅槃--英国考文垂主教堂的重建

1999年英国电视4频道“遗产登记”专栏对英国50座最吸引人的现代建筑进行测评。结果新考文垂主教堂位居首位，足见它的影响在历史是空前的。考文垂主教堂是英国历史上第个，也是惟一一个被战争摧毁的主教堂建筑，其20世纪50年代末的重建工作从竞赛投标到最终项目的完成，既充分反映了现代建筑的典型特征，又对历史场所的认知和现代建筑艺术品的应用具有独到的理解。借此提供一个认知英国50年代建筑多元化风格的平台，并能对英国战后登录建筑的概念有所推介。     

Analysis of gross migration profiles in England and Wales: some developments in classification

"In this paper [the authors] describe the development and application of two approaches to the analysis of age and sex specific interarea migration. The data relate to local authority areas in England and Wales. These approaches are developments of established migration profile-fitting and cluster analytic methods. The paper shows how these methods have been used to develop complementary classifications from which potentially valuable criteria for migration analysis can emerge. The work described is part of a wider project concerned with the development of methods to improve the official estimation of internal migration in England in the context of local area population forecasting."     

Quantifying the capacity value of natural gas efficiency in New England

Natural gas utilities in New England face increasing natural gas transmission system congestion and volatile spot gas prices. We observe that prevailing evaluation methods for natural gas efficiency programs value avoided firm pipeline capacity based on its total (‘gross') cost. We propose, consistent with deregulated electricity markets, to value avoided firm pipeline capacity at its ‘net’ cost. Specifically, we account for revenues associated with selling excess capacity during periods when the firm capacity holder does not fully utilize its rights. Our evaluation of commercial building efficiency programs suggests that prevailing evaluation methods could over-estimate the value of efficiency programs when those programs are intended to offset new capacity investments (i.e., the utility is in need of additional firm capacity). The situation is more complex for a utility with sufficient firm pipeline capacity to meet forecast load (i.e., consumption). In this case, the prevailing evaluation methods have the potential to under- or over-estimate the value of efficiency programs. The value of avoided infrastructure investments is likely to vary with the specific circumstances of the utility and the expected revenues associated with short-term sales enabled by available capacity. In the future, we recommend that economic regulators of natural gas distribution utilities, the state public utility commissions (PUCs), value avoided infrastructure investments at the ‘net' cost of the investment instead of the ‘gross' cost.