Cardiovascular events and mortality in newly and chronically depressed persons > 70 years of age

The role of duration of depressed mood in the prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires further study, as it has been suggested that emerging depressive symptoms may be a better predictor than persistent depressive symptoms. This prospective cohort study of 3,701 men and women aged > 70 years uses 3 measurement occasions of depressive symptomatology (Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale) during a 6-year period to distinguish persons who were newly (depressed at baseline but not at 3 and 6 years before baseline) and chronically depressed (depressed at baseline and at 3 or 6 years before baseline). Their risk of subsequent CVD events and all-cause mortality was compared with that of subjects who were never depressed during the 6-year period. Outcome events were based on death certificates and Medicare hospitalization records. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, there were 732 deaths (46.2/1,000 person-years) and 933 new CVD events (64.7/1,000 person-years). In men, but not in women, newly depressed mood was associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality (relative risk 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 3.05), new CVD events (relative risk 2.07, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.96), and new coronary heart disease events (relative risk 2.03, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.24) after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors. The association between newly depressed mood and all-cause mortality was smaller (relative risk 1.40, 95% CI 0.95 to 2.07). Chronic depressed mood was not associated with new CVD events or all-cause mortality. Our findings suggest that newly depressed older men, but not women, were approximately twice as likely to have a CVD event than those who were never depressed. In men, recent onset of depressed mood is a better predictor of CVD than long-term depressed mood.     

Self-reported long-standing psychiatric illness as a predictor of premature all-cause mortality and violent death: a 14-year follow-up study of native Swedes and foreign-born migrants

The present study focuses on the associations between self-rated long-standing psychiatric illness, ethnicity, all-cause mortality and violent death (accidents and suicide), in a sample of 39,155 Swedish-born and foreign-born individuals. The study was designed as a longitudinal follow-up study, covering the period between 1 January 1979 and 31 December 1996. The data were analysed by a proportional hazard model and the results are given as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Self-reported long-standing psychiatric illness was a strong risk factor for total mortality: women had an HR of 2.13 (CI = 1.78-2.54) and men an HR of 1.84 (CI = 1.53-2.21), when adjusted for background factors such as country of birth, civil status and socio-economic factors. Finnish men had an increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to Swedes in the final model, when adjusted for socio-economic factors. Long-standing psychiatric illness was also a strong risk factor for violent death, with an HR of 3.51 (CI = 2.32-5.32). The risk of violent death was 2.4 times higher for men than for women. The conclusions of the present study are that self-reported long-standing psychiatric illness is a strong predictor of an increased all-cause mortality and increased mortality from violent death. The increased age-adjusted mortality risk for foreign-born men could be explained by disadvantaged social and economic conditions. Only Finnish men demonstrated an independent increased all-cause mortality risk.     

Body mass index and mortality in a general population sample of men and women. The Buffalo Health Study

The objective of this research was to investigate the long-term relation between body mass index (BMI) and mortality from all causes and from specific causes in the general population. A 29-year follow-up study was conducted in a random sample of white men (n = 611) and women (n = 697) aged 20-96 years who were residents of Buffalo, New York, in 1960. At baseline, height and weight were determined by self-report. BMI was calculated as weight (kg)/height (m2). During the follow-up period, 295 (48.3 percent) men and 281 (40.3 percent) women died. With the Cox proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, education, and cigarette smoking, a significant linear association was found between BMI and all-cause mortality in men less than age 65 years at baseline (relative risk (RR) = 1.06, 95 percent confidence interval 1.02-1.09), but not in women (RR = 1.02, 95 percent confidence interval 0.99-1.05). In men age 65 years and older, the relation was quadratic in form (p = 0.02), with the lowest risks appearing in the BMI range of 23-27. BMI was most strongly related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease mortality in women and younger men. No such associations were observed in older men. BMI was not related to an increased risk of death from non-CVD or cancer in either sex. These findings illustrate the importance of BMI as a risk factor for CVD and coronary heart disease mortality in certain gender-age groups and indicate that the majority of the impact of BMI on overall mortality is due to the strong relation between relative weight and these specific causes of death.     

Increased cancer mortality following a history of nonmelanoma skin cancer

CONTEXT: Cancer registries have reported an increased incidence of melanoma and certain noncutaneous cancers following nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC). Whether these findings were attributable to intensified surveillance, shared risk factors, or increased cancer susceptibility remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a history of NMSC predicts cancer mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort with 12-year mortality follow-up adjusted for multiple risk factors. SETTING: Cancer Prevention Study II, United States and Puerto Rico. PARTICIPANTS: Nearly 1.1 million adult volunteers who completed a baseline questionnaire in 1982. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deaths due to all cancers and common cancers. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, race, education, smoking, obesity, alcohol use, and other conventional risk factors, a baseline history of NMSC was associated with increased total cancer mortality (men's relative risk [RR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.36; women's RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17-1.35). Exclusion of deaths due to melanoma reduced these RRs only slightly. Mortality was increased for the following cancers: melanoma (RR, 3.36 in men, 3.52 in women); pharynx (RR, 2.77 in men, 2.81 in women); lung (RR, 1.37 in men, 1.46 in women); non-Hodgkin lymphoma (RR, 1.32 in men, 1.50 in women); in men only, salivary glands (RR, 2.96), prostate (RR, 1.28), testis (RR, 12.7), urinary bladder (RR, 1.41), and leukemia (RR, 1.37); and in women only, breast (RR, 1.34). All-cause mortality was slightly increased (adjusted men's RR, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00-1.06]; women's RR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.00-1.09]). CONCLUSIONS: Persons with a history of NMSC are at increased risk of cancer mortality. Although the biological mechanisms are unknown, a history of NMSC should increase the clinician's alertness for certain noncutaneous cancers as well as melanoma.     

Lowered risks of hypertension and cerebrovascular disease after vitamin/mineral supplementation: the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial

A total of 3,318 men and women from a region in rural China were randomized to receive daily either a multiple vitamin/mineral supplement or a placebo. Deaths that occurred in the participants were ascertained and classified according to cause over the 6-year period from 1985 to 1991. At the end of supplementation, blood pressure readings were taken, and the prevalence of hypertension was determined. There was a slight reduction in overall mortality in the supplement group (relative risk (RR) = 0.93, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 0.75-1.16), with the decreased relative risk most pronounced for cerebrovascular disease deaths (RR = 0.63, 95 percent CI 0.37-1.07). This benefit was greater for men (RR = 0.42, 95 percent CI 0.19-0.93) than for women (RR = 0.93, 95 percent CI 0.44-1.98). Among the survivors, the presence of elevations in both systolic and diastolic blood pressures was less common in those who received the supplement (RR for men = 0.43, 95% CI 0.28-0.65; RR for women = 0.92, 95 percent CI 0.68-1.24). This study indicates that supplementation with a multivitamin/mineral combination may have reduced mortality from cerebrovascular disease and the prevalence of hypertension in this rural population with a micronutrient-poor diet.     

Serum creatinine concentration and risk of cardiovascular disease: a possible marker for increased risk of stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Elevated serum creatinine has been associated with increased mortality in hypertensive persons, the elderly, and patients with myocardial infarction or stroke in whom cardiovascular disease is the major cause of death. We have examined the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the risk of major ischemic heart disease and stroke events and all-cause mortality in a general population of middle-aged men. METHODS: We present a prospective study of middle-aged men (aged 40 to 59 years) drawn from 24 British towns who have been followed up for an average of 14.75 years. Data on serum creatinine were available for 7690 men in whom there were 287 major stroke events, 967 major ischemic heart disease events, and 1259 deaths from all causes during follow-up. RESULTS: The median serum creatinine concentration was 98 micromol/L (95% range, 76 to 129 micromol/L). Stroke risk was significantly increased at levels above 116 micromol/L (90th percentile) even after adjustment for a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors (relative risk [RR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1; > 116 micromol/L versus the rest). Risk of a major ischemic heart disease event was significantly increased at or above 130 micromol/L (97.5 percentile), but this was attenuated after adjustment (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.7; > or = 130 micromol/L versus the rest). There was a weak but significant positive association between diastolic blood pressure and creatinine concentration. However, elevated creatinine concentration (> or = 116 micromol/L) was associated with a significant increase in stroke in both normotensive and hypertensive men. All-cause mortality and overall cardiovascular mortality were significantly increased only above the 97.5 percentile, and no significant association was seen with cancer or other noncardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A high serum creatinine concentration within the normal range is a marker for increased risk of cerebrovascular disease in both normotensive and hypertensive subjects. These findings support the evidence indicating that subtle impairment of renal function is a factor for increased risk of stroke and suggest mechanisms in the pathogenesis of stroke that warrant further investigation.     

Socioeconomic status within social class and mortality: a prospective study in middle-aged British men

OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that mortality differences between groups in society may be greater than are indicated by social class based on occupation. We have examined the relationship between social class and mortality using home and car ownership as additional indices of socioeconomic status within social class. DESIGN: A prospective study of a cohort of men representative of the social class distribution of middle-aged men in Great Britain. SETTING: One general practice in each of 24 towns in England, Wales and Scotland. SUBJECTS: Five years after the initial screening of 7735 men aged 40-59 years, 7262 men (94% of the original cohort) provided information on housing tenure and car ownership by completing a postal questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deaths from all causes, cardiovascular, cancer and other non-cardiovascular causes during an average follow-up of 9.8 years (range 8.5-11.0 years) after the postal questionnaire. RESULTS: During the follow-up period there were 946 deaths from all causes among the 7262 men. The lowest mortality rates for all causes, cardiovascular, cancer and other non-cardiovascular causes were seen in non-manual social classes I and II. Manual social classes III and IV+V showed a significant 40% increase in risk of death compared to social classes I+II, even after adjustment for a wide range of risk factors (relative risk [RR] = 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.7 and RR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7 respectively). Within all social class groups, those owning both home and car showed lower rates than those who owned neither, even after adjustment for a wide range of risk factors and employment status. Compared with social classes I+II owning both home and car, all those not owning home and/or car, in each social group, showed a significant approximately twofold increase in risk of death. Adjusted RR for non-manual I+II = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5-2.9), non-manual III RR = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.3-2.9), manual III RR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.4) and manual IV+V RR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.5). Similar relationships were seen in all major geographical regions of Great Britain. CONCLUSION: Mortality differences within society are greater than indicated by social class based on occupation alone. Irrespective of social class, men with greater material assets have lower rates of mortality from all causes than men less well endowed, independent of a wide range of lifestyle and biological factors. These findings suggest that mortality differences within our society are closely related to relative wealth.     

Do cardiovascular risk factors explain the relation between socioeconomic status, risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and acute myocardial infarction?

Much remains to be understood about how low socioeconomic status (SES) increases cardiovascular disease and mortality risk. Data from the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (1984-1993) were used to estimate the associations between acute myocardial infarction and income, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality in a population-based sample of 2,272 Finnish men, with adjustment for 23 biologic, behavioral, psychologic, and social risk factors. Compared with the highest income quintile, those in the bottom quintile had age-adjusted relative hazards of 3.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.77-5.56), 2.66 (95% CI 1.25-5.66), and 4.34 (95% CI 1.95-9.66) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and AMI, respectively. After adjustment for risk factors, the relative hazards for the same comparisons were 1.32 (95% CI 0.70-2.49), 0.70 (95% CI 0.29-1.69), and 2.83 (95% CI 1.14-7.00). In the lowest income quintile, adjustment for risk factors reduced the excess relative risk of all-cause mortality by 85%, that of cardiovascular mortality by 118%, and that of acute myocardial infarction by 45%. These data show how the association between SES and cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality is mediated by known risk factor pathways, but full "explanations" for these associations will need to encompass why these biologic, behavioral, psychologic, and social risk factors are differentially distributed by SES.     

QT interval as a cardiac risk factor in a middle aged population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the value of QT interval as a cardiac risk factor in middle aged people. METHODS: The association between QT interval and cardiac risk factors and mortality in a middle aged Finnish population of 5598 men and 5119 women was evaluated over a 23 year follow up. To adjust the QT interval confidently for heart rate, a nomogram was constructed from the baseline electrocardiograms separately for men and women. RESULTS: Nomogram-corrected QT interval (QTNc) prolongation was associated with elevated blood pressure and signs of cardiovascular disease; QTNc shortening was associated with smoking. Over 10% prolongation of QTNc predicted death in men with heart disease: adjusted relative risk (RR) was 2.17 (95% confidence interval 0.67-7.45) for sudden death; 2.12 (1.25-3.59) for total cardiovascular mortality; and 1.92 (1.23-3.00) for all cause mortality. In healthy men the increase in RR was not significant: sudden death, 1.48 (0.67-3.25); total cardiovascular mortality, 1.25 (0.92-1.70); all cause mortality, 1.21 (0.96-1.53). However, healthy men with long QTNc in the lowest heart rate quartile exhibited an RR of 2.75 (1.00-7.40) for sudden death. Over 10% shortened QTNc predicted cardiovascular death in men with heart disease who smoked; RR 3.72 (1.45-9.54). Non-smoking men with short QTNc had low mortality risks irrespective of possible signs of cardiovascular disease. The trends in mortality risks were similar but weaker for women. CONCLUSIONS: In a middle aged population, prolonged QT interval predicts cardiac mortality in men with signs of cardiovascular disease. In women and healthy men this risk is weak and may reflect subclinical heart disease. A shortened QT interval predicts death in men with heart disease who smoke.     

Sex differences in the impact of coexistent diabetes on survival in patients with coronary heart disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sex difference in the impact of diabetes on survival in patients with coronary heart disease. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Cohort study based on a sample from a hospital registry in Chicago, IL. A total of 974 consecutive patients (585 men and 389 women) with angiographically confirmed coronary artery disease were followed for 4.6 yr. RESULTS: At baseline, 160 men and 155 women had diabetes. The age-adjusted relative risk of death from all causes for patients with diabetes versus patients without diabetes was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.65-1.34) in men and 1.99 (95% CI 1.30-3.05) in women. For cardiac death, the corresponding relative risk was 1.00 (95% CI 0.64-1.56) and 1.96 (95% CI 1.19-3.24) in men and women, respectively. Baseline differences in age, hypertension, body mass index, number of diseased vessels, and ejection fraction did not fully explain the excess mortality risk in diabetic women. Excess risk was apparent in both cardiac and noncardiovascular categories. Among nondiabetic patients, the risk of death was significantly lower in women compared with men (multivariate-adjusted relative risk = 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.89). However, the mortality risk of diabetic women became similar to men as a whole (relative risk = 1.13, 95% CI 0.80-1.60). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes confers a substantially higher risk of mortality in women than in men when it occurs in the presence of coronary heart disease.     

Production of androgenetic haploids in zebrafish with ultraviolet light

Anal cancer is more commonly found in homosexual and bisexual men than cervical cancer is in women. Invasive anal cancer may be preceded by anal squamous intraepithelial lesions (ASIL), and treatment of ASIL may prevent the development of anal cancer. We characterized the prevalence and risk factors for ASIL in 346 HIV-positive and 262 HIV-negative homosexual men. Anal cytology, biopsy of visible anal lesions, and human papillomavirus (HPV) tests were performed, and data on HIV serostatus, CD4 count, and medical and lifestyle history were collected. ASIL was diagnosed in 36% of HIV-positive men and 7% of HIV-negative men (relative risk [RR] = 5.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6-8.9). Among HIV-positive men, the RR for ASIL increased with lower CD4 levels but was elevated even in men with CD4 levels >500/mm3 (RR = 3.8; 95% CI, 2.1-6.7) when compared with HIV-negative men. High-level HPV infection, as measured by detection of both hybrid capture (HC) group A and group B types, was another significant risk factor for ASIL in both HIV-positive men (RR = 8.8; 95% CI, 2.3-35) and HIV-negative men (RR = 20; 95% CI, 5.5-71) when compared with HC-negative men. HIV-negative men with anal HPV infection and HIV-positive men, regardless of CD4 level, are at high risk for ASIL.     

Pancreas cancer as a second primary malignancy. A population-based study

BACKGROUND: The study of second primary malignancies may give clues to the etiology of various cancers. Little is known about risk factors for pancreatic carcinoma; therefore, its occurrence as a second primary malignancy was investigated. METHODS: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) program were used for the period from January 1, 1973 through December 31, 1990. Person-years of follow-up for various cancer sites were calculated, excluding the initial 6 months after diagnosis, and were multiplied times the age- and sex-specific incidence rates for pancreas cancer to calculate the expected number of second primary pancreas cancer cases. The observed number of cases was divided by the expected number to estimate the relative risk (RR) of pancreas cancer as a second primary cancer, and 95% confidence limits were calculated. RESULTS: The risk of second primary cancer was elevated after lung cancer for men (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) and women (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.9-3.2). An elevation in risk also was found after head and neck cancer in women (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.5) and bladder cancer in women (RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0), but not in men. Other significant elevations were found after prostate cancer (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and a decreased risk was found after lymphoma in men (RR 0.2, 95% CI 0.0-0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Second primary pancreas cancer is increased after tobacco-related malignancies, particularly in females, supporting the role of cigarette smoking as a risk factor for pancreas cancer and suggesting a stronger effect of cigarette smoking for women. The elevation in risk after prostate cancer and the decreased risk after lymphoma in males need to be confirmed in other data sets.     

Primary prevention of acute coronary events with lovastatin in men and women with average cholesterol levels: results of AFCAPS/TexCAPS. Air Force/Texas Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention Study

CONTEXT: Although cholesterol-reducing treatment has been shown to reduce fatal and nonfatal coronary disease in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), it is unknown whether benefit from the reduction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in patients without CHD extends to individuals with average serum cholesterol levels, women, and older persons. OBJECTIVE: To compare lovastatin with placebo for prevention of the first acute major coronary event in men and women without clinically evident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with average total cholesterol (TC) and LDL-C levels and below-average high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. DESIGN: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Outpatient clinics in Texas. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5608 men and 997 women with average TC and LDL-C and below-average HDL-C (as characterized by lipid percentiles for an age- and sex-matched cohort without cardiovascular disease from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES] III). Mean (SD) TC level was 5.71 (0.54) mmol/L (221 [21] mg/dL) (51 st percentile), mean (SD) LDL-C level was 3.89 (0.43) mmol/L (150 [17] mg/dL) (60th percentile), mean (SD) HDL-C level was 0.94 (0.14) mmol/L (36 [5] mg/dL) for men and 1.03 (0.14) mmol/L (40 [5] mg/dL) for women (25th and 16th percentiles, respectively), and median (SD) triglyceride levels were 1.78 (0.86) mmol/L (158 [76] mg/dL) (63rd percentile). INTERVENTION: Lovastatin (20-40 mg daily) or placebo in addition to a low-saturated fat, low-cholesterol diet. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: First acute major coronary event defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or sudden cardiac death. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 5.2 years, lovastatin reduced the incidence of first acute major coronary events (1 83 vs 116 first events; relative risk [RR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.79; P<.001), myocardial infarction (95 vs 57 myocardial infarctions; RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.43-0.83; P=.002), unstable angina (87 vs 60 first unstable angina events; RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49-0.95; P=.02), coronary revascularization procedures (157 vs 106 procedures; RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.85; P=.001), coronary events (215 vs 163 coronary events; RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.92; P =.006), and cardiovascular events (255 vs 194 cardiovascular events; RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.91; P = .003). Lovastatin (20-40 mg daily) reduced LDL-C by 25% to 2.96 mmol/L (115 mg/dL) and increased HDL-C by 6% to 1.02 mmol/L (39 mg/dL). There were no clinically relevant differences in safety parameters between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Lovastatin reduces the risk for the first acute major coronary event in men and women with average TC and LDL-C levels and below-average HDL-C levels. These findings support the inclusion of HDL-C in risk-factor assessment, confirm the benefit of LDL-C reduction to a target goal, and suggest the need for reassessment of the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines regarding pharmacological intervention.     

Osteoarthritis, bone density, postural stability, and osteoporotic fractures: a population based study

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis (OA) is associated with an increase in bone density both locally and at distant sites. Prospective data are limited on the relationship between OA and fracture. We studied the possible relationship between self-reported OA, bone density, postural stability measures, and atraumatic fractures as part of a study of men and women over 60 years of age. METHODS: Subjects were part of the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (a longitudinal population based study of fracture risk factors). Bone density was measured by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Postural stability was assessed by the validated measures of quadriceps strength and sway. Medication use and self-reported arthritis were assessed by a structured personal interview. Fractures were ascertained retrospectively by interview and prospectively by viewing radiographic reports for fracture. RESULTS: Among a study population of 1101 women and 720 men (mean age 69) there were 462 subjects (25%) who reported a diagnosis of OA. In both sexes, subjects with OA had higher bone density (adjusted for age and body mass index) at both the femoral neck (men, p = 0.026; women, p = 0.048) and lumbar spine (men, p = 0.0007; women, p = 0.0007). However, in both sexes, those with self-reported OA also had higher body sway and lower quadriceps strength. The combination of these observed differences in fracture risk factors led to no predicted change in fracture risk overall when using established nomograms for this population [men, OR = 1.11 (95% CI 0.83-1.45); women, OR = 1.08 (95% CI 0.83-1.39)]. This paralleled our observational finding that self-reported OA was not associated with a decrease in fracture incidence compared to those not reporting OA in both men (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.29-1.39) and women (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.66-1.51). CONCLUSION: Individuals with self-reported OA, despite higher bone density, are not protected against nonvertebral osteoporotic fracture, apparently due to worsened postural stability and thus an increased tendency to fall.     

Changes in physical activity, mortality, and incidence of coronary heart disease in older men

BACKGROUND: We studied the relations between physical activity and changes in physical activity, all-cause mortality, and incidence of major coronary-heart-disease events in older men. METHODS: In 1978-80 (Q1), 7735 men aged 40-59 were selected from general practices in 24 British towns, and enrolled in a prospective study of cardiovascular disease, which included physical activity data. In 1992 (Q92), 12-14 years later, 5934 of the men (91% of available survivors, mean age 63 years) gave further information on physical activity and were then followed up for a further 4 years. The main endpoints were all-cause mortality during 4 years of follow-up from Q92, and major fatal and non-fatal coronary-heart-disease events during 3 years of follow-up from Q92. FINDINGS: Among 4311 men with no history of coronary heart disease, stroke, or "other heart trouble" by Q92 and who did not report "poor health", there were 219 deaths. In the inactive/occasionally active, light, moderate, and moderately vigorous/vigorous activity groups there were 101 (18.5/1000 person-years) 48 (11.4), 23 (7.3), and 47 (9.1) deaths, respectively (adjusted risk ratios 1.00, 0.61 [95% CI 0.48-0.86], 0.50 [0.31-0.79], 0.65 [0.45-0.94]). Men who were sedentary at Q1 and who began at least light activity by Q92 had significantly lower all-cause mortality than those who remained sedentary, even after adjustment for potential confounders (risk ratio=0.55 [0.36-0.84]). Physical activity improved both cardiovascular mortality (0.66 [0.35-1.23]) and non-cardiovascular mortality (0.48 [0.27-0.85]). The relation between physical activity at Q92, changes in physical activity, and mortality were similar for men with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. INTERPRETATION: Maintaining or taking up light or moderate physical activity reduces mortality and heart attacks in older men with and without diagnosed cardiovascular disease. Our results support public-health recommendations for older sedentary people to increase physical activity, and for active middle-aged people to continue their activity into old age.     

Mortality over four years in SHEP participants with a low ankle-arm index

OBJECTIVES: To assess the risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in older adults with systolic hypertension and with a low ankle-arm index (AAI) as a marker of subclinical peripheral arterial disease (PAD). DESIGN: Prospective observational study PARTICIPANTS: A subgroup of 1537 participants in the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) were screened for lower extremity arterial disease using the AAI. Participants were evaluated at 4 years to determine vital status and cause of death. Total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates were assessed in relationship to clinical CVD at baseline, cardiovascular risk factors and the presence of a low AAI (subclinical PAD). RESULTS: Total mortality rates increased as the AAI decreased in those with and without clinical CVD at baseline. In those without clinical CVD at baseline, the presence of an AAI < or = .9 was associated with an age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of 3.00 for total mortality in men and 2.67 in women. Results were similar for CVD mortality and persisted after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors including the presence of an abnormal electrocardiogram. CONCLUSIONS: A low ankle arm-index predicted a two to three-fold increase in total and cardiovascular mortality in older adults with systolic hypertension of risk for incident cardiovascular disease. In this study of older adults with systolic hypertension, 19.7% of the participants had subclinical PAD. Risk factor modification could be targeted to older adults based on markers of asymptomatic atherosclerosis.     

Relation of Helicobacter pylori infection to 13-year mortality and incident ischemic heart disease in the caerphilly prospective heart disease study

BACKGROUND: Associations have been suggested between Helicobacter pylori seropositivity, cardiovascular risk factors, and ischemic heart disease (IHD). The effect of this common infection on mortality is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma specimens collected during 1979 to 1983 from 1796 men in Caerphilly, South Wales, were analyzed for IgG antibodies to H pylori. Cause of death and occurrence of incident IHD events were ascertained over an average of 13.7 years from death certificates, hospital records, and ECG changes at 5-yearly follow-up examinations. Seventy percent of men were seropositive. The prevalence of IHD at entry was similar in men with and without H pylori antibodies (odds ratio [OR], 1.10; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.40). Seropositivity was significantly (P<0.05) associated with poorer socioeconomic status currently and in childhood, shorter stature, and poorer ventilatory function at entry but not with age, smoking, body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, fibrinogen, plasma viscosity, or heat shock protein antibodies. Thirteen-year incidence of IHD was not significantly associated with H pylori (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.39), but there was a stronger relationship with all-cause mortality (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.92) and fatal IHD (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.30). After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and both adult and childhood socioeconomic status, ORs were slightly reduced and lost statistical significance (OR=1.32 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.78] for all-cause mortality and OR=1.52 [95% CI, 0.99 to 2.34] for fatal IHD). CONCLUSIONS: H pylori infection is unlikely to be as strong a risk factor for IHD as some previous studies have suggested, but its relationship to mortality, including fatal IHD, deserves further investigation. The mechanism underlying these associations is unlikely to involve hypertension, circulating lipid profile, fibrinogen, or cross-reacting antibodies to bacterial heat shock proteins.     

EPIBACDIAL: a multicenter prospective study of risk factors for bacteremia in chronic hemodialysis patients

Bacteremic infections are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in chronic hemodialysis patients. New developments in managing these patients (erythropoietin therapy, nasal mupirocin, long-term implanted catheters, and synthetic membranes) may have altered the epidemiologic patterns of bacteremia in dialysis patients. This multicenter prospective cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the current incidence of and risk factors for bacteremia in chronic hemodialysis patients in France. A total of 988 adults on chronic hemodialysis for 1 mo or longer was followed up prospectively for 6 mo in 19 French dialysis units. The factors associated with the development of at least one bacteremic episode over 6 mo were determined using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Staphylococcus aureus (n=20) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (n=15) were responsible for most of the 51 bacteremic episodes recorded. The incidence of bacteremia was 0.93 episode per 100 patient-months. Four risk factors for bacteremia were identified: (1) vascular access (catheter versus fistula: RR=7.6; 95% CI, 3.7 to 15.6); (2) history of bacteremia (> or =2 versus no previous episode: RR=7.3; 95% CI, 3.2 to 16.4); (3) immunosuppressive therapy (current versus no: RR=3.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 6.1); and (4) corpuscular hemoglobin (per 1 g/dl increment: RR=0.7; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.9). Catheters, especially long-term implanted catheters, were found to be the leading risk factor of bacteremia in chronic hemodialysis patients. There was a trend toward recurrence of bacteremia that was not associated with chronic staphylococcal nasal carriage. Synthetic membranes were not associated with a lower risk of bacteremia in this population of well dialyzed patients, but anemia linked to resistance to erythropoietin appeared to be a possible risk factor for bacteremia.     

Histochemical and laser scanning microscopy characterization of the hydroxyapatite-bone interface: an experimental study in rabbits

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between haematocrit and risk of stroke. DESIGN: Prospective study of a cohort of men followed up for 9.5 years. SETTING: General practices in 24 towns in England, Scotland and Wales (British Regional Heart Study). SUBJECTS: A total of 7735 men aged 40-59 years at screening, selected at random from one general practice in each of 24 towns. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fatal and non-fatal strokes. RESULTS: During a follow-up period of 9.5 years for all men there were 123 stroke events (33 fatal) in the 7346 men in whom the haematocrit level had been determined. In the cohort as a whole, risk of stroke was significantly raised at haematocrit levels > or = 51% (relative risk [RR] = 2.5; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.2-5.0) after adjustment for age, social class, smoking, body mass index, physical activity, presence of diabetes and pre-existing ischaemic heart disease. Further adjustment for systolic blood pressure did not attenuate this association (RR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.2-4.9). A raised haematocrit was associated with an increase of stroke only in men with hypertension (systolic blood pressure > or = 160 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > or = 90 mmHg or on regular antihypertensive treatment). No increased risk of stroke was seen at the higher haematocrit level (> or = 51%) in normotensive men. At haematocrit levels below 51%, hypertension was associated with a three-fold increase in risk of stroke compared with normotension (RR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.3, 5.1). At haematocrit levels > or = 51%, hypertension was associated with a nine-fold increase in risk of stroke compared with normotension (RR = 9.3; 95% CI 4.2, 21.0). Exclusion of men receiving regular antihypertensive therapy did not alter the strong associations seen. CONCLUSION: The data suggest that an elevated haematocrit is an independent risk factor for stroke and that it interacts synergistically with elevated blood pressure.     

Perinatal mortality and its relationship to the reporting of low-birthweight infants

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether diabetes defined by isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia (IPH) (2-h postchallenge plasma glucose > or = 11.1 mmol/l with fasting plasma glucose [FPG] < 7.0 mmol/l) increases the risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older women and men. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a prospective study, we followed 769 men and 1,089 women, aged 50-89 years, who had no history of diabetes or myocardial infarction and demonstrated no fasting hyperglycemia (i.e., FPG < 7.0 mmol/l) when they underwent oral glucose tolerance testing at baseline in 1984-1987. RESULTS: At baseline, 70% of 125 women and 48% of 133 men with previously undiagnosed diabetes had IPH. Over the next 7 years, women with IPH had a significantly increased risk of fatal CVD and heart disease compared with nondiabetic women. This increased risk was not observed in men with IPH. This association was independent of age, hypertension, central obesity, cigarette smoking, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides (multiply adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI: 2.6 and 1.4-4.7 for CVD; 2.9 and 1.3-6.4 for heart disease). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes defined by IPH alone is common in older adults and more than doubles the risk of fatal CVD and heart disease in older women. Because the prevalence of IPH increases with age, the use of fasting glucose alone for diabetes screening or diagnosis may fail to identify most older adults at high risk for CVD and should be reevaluated.