影响广西沿海地区的热带气旋的模拟

对１９４９年至１９８６年影响广西沿海地区的主要热带气旋共７９个进行统计分析，并按其运动特性分为登陆及顺岸移行两类，分别计算各热带气旋的各要素值及其相应的频率、点绘两类热带气旋的各要素的频率曲线图，用随机组合概率的方法对影响广西沿海地区的热带气旋进行模拟，分别得到影响广西沿海地区的登陆及顺岸移行两类热带气旋的组合，它们概括了将来可能出现的任意热带气旋，同时各模拟热带气旋所具有的不同重现期（频率）也随之确定，为各海洋工程、海岸工程的设计及风险分析、为各防灾诚灾方案的制定和实施充分考虑将来可能出现的热带气旋的影响提供新的途径。     

华南沿海热带气旋特性及其灾害

1热带气旋的时空分布 我国海域辽阔,是世界上风暴潮多发区之一。华南地区大陆海岸线长约5610km,约占全国海岸线的32％,是我国热带气旋活动频繁之地,受台风侵袭最为严重。凡进入以下范围内的热带气旋称为华南热带气旋:①广东沿海北纬20°以北、东经118°以西;②广西沿海北纬20°以北的北部湾;③海南沿海北纬17°以北、东经113°以西。 根据1950～1990年共41年的资料统计,影响华南沿海各省区的热带气旋达475次,如不包括重复登陆的为370次(见表1),每年平均受影响的热带气旋有11.6次。其中影响广东沿海的热带气旋有207次,平均每年5次;影响广西沿海的88次,平均每年2.1次;影响海南的热带气旋有180次,平均每年4.4次。     

台风命名方法 热带气旋、台风与飓风

台风是热带气旋的一种。气象学上，台风专指北太平洋西部（国际日期线以西，包括南中国海）洋面上发生，近中心最大持续风速达到12级及以上（即，32．6m／s以上）的热带气旋。至于在大西洋或北太平洋东部发生，达到同样强度的热带气旋，则称为飓风。     

1994年6—9月热带气旋概述与个例分析

对１９９４年６￣９月的热带气旋活动及其造成的灾害作了初步总结，并着重分析了９４０３号强热带风暴的特点。总结认为：１９９４年热带气旋虽未发展到台风，但同样可以造成重大灾害，而且热带气旋对华南地区来说往往有连续的采取同样路径影响相近地区的特点。     

影响太湖流域的热带气旋特征统计分析

太湖流域位于长三角区域一体化发展和长江经济带发展两大国家战略的交汇点,在我国发展大局中具有重要战略地位,该地区也是台风影响的主要地区之一,热带气旋登陆伴随的狂风暴雨和风暴潮严重威胁沿海人民生命财产安全,探究影响太湖流域的西北太平洋热带气旋变化趋势对做好流域防灾减灾工作意义重大。基于1949—2020年热带气旋资料,利用数理统计方法对影响太湖流域的热带气旋的年内、年际变化规律进行了统计分析,结果表明：影响太湖流域的热带气旋频数呈现明显的年际波动,最多为每年7个,最少为每年1个,平均为每年3个。太湖流域4—11月均可能受热带气旋影响,但主要集中在7—9月份,占总频次的82%。从登陆位置看,影响太湖流域的热带气旋在台湾、浙江登陆的比例高。从移动路径看,影响太湖流域的台风以正面穿越和登陆影响的路径为主。厄尔尼诺现象对影响太湖流域台风的特征有着重要影响,在厄尔尼诺年,台风频次较平均减少,其整体影响时间偏短,而拉尼娜年规律一般相反。根据实测资料分析,台风影响暴雨落区与副热带高压、低空急流和地形关系密切。     

热带气旋对南海西南季风的影响分析

文中通过实况观测数据及FNL再分析数据,利用中尺度天气预报模式WRF进行数值模拟,使用三维变分同化设计敏感性试验,对南海进行动力学分析,分析了1408号热带气旋西南"浣熊"对南海夏季西南季风的一次影响过程。结果表明,数值模式能够较好地模拟热带气旋以及南海季风的变化过程;数据同化能够在其他条件基本不变的情况下减小热带气旋的初始强度。热带气旋"浣熊"移至巴士海峡以东时,南海低空西南气流得到了加强,且西南气流强度与热带气旋的强度为正相关的关系。南海低空西南气流动能主要由气压梯度力项产生。     

热带气旋特征指标定量化研究和应用

基于1949～2010年历史热带气旋资料,对热带气旋生成、发展、强度变化、登陆等特征进行分析研究,初步形成定量化描述热带气旋生成、发展和影响的一些特征指标,并将这些定量化特征指标在防汛防台风工作中逐步投入业务应用,提高了对热带气旋监测预测和信息服务的能力。     

今年以来已有6个热带气旋在我国登陆

截至8月上旬,今年西北太平洋（含南海）上共生成8个热带气旋,已经有6个在我国登陆。     

热带气旋的灾害和减灾对策

热带气旋是我国沿海地区的主要自然灾害之一,它形成的台风伴随着暴雨和暴潮给人民带来了巨大损失,研究热带气旋的发生及运动规律和防灾对策有着重要的意义。10级以上的热带气旋,人们是无法抢险的,因此要立足于防。本文提出对水利工程、民房、农田和保护农作物的减灾对策。     

热带气旋登陆浙中北可能带来的影响分析

将历史代表性热带气旋,分不同的行进路径和可能遭遇的天文潮进行模拟计算,分析热带气旋登陆浙中北沿海可能会带来的影响,并针对存在的薄弱环节,提出相应防御对策措施,为科学防御提供决策支持。     

粤东沿海台风暴潮增水及其预报

广东省沿海受台风暴潮影响严重,特别是粤东沿海,由于特殊的地形有利于风暴增水,所以风暴潮灾害尤为突出,导致该地区人民生命和财产受到巨大损失.对此,在整理分析1979～2006年登陆影响粤东沿海的热带气旋和风暴潮增水资料(包括历史上实测最强的6903风暴潮)的基础上,对该海域热带气旋路径特点、热带气旋强度和潮流等与风暴潮产生过程具有最大增水关系的因素进行分析研究,并对粤东沿海风暴增水的作业预报进行概述.     

影响我国热带气旋的频数与强度预测研究及其在海洋工程中的应对

应用滑动平均的方法,对近58年影响我国的热带气旋频数,强度和年极值强度进行趋势分析,并应用Spearman非参数趋势检验法进行了显著性检验。在此基础上应用基于分形理论的R/S方法对未来的热带气旋频数、强度和年极值强度进行了趋势预测。分析表明:未来影响我国的热带气旋频数、强度、年极值强度都是呈增加增强趋势的。最后,给出了面对热带气旋强度增强的海洋工程的应对方法。     

Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones

This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP) reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields,compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data.     

GENERATION OF FINITE ELEMENT MESH WITH CYCLONE TRACK IN THE AUSTRALIANNORTH WEST SHELF

ＧＥＮＥＲＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＦＩＮＩＴＥＥＬＥＭＥＮＴＭＥＳＨＷＩＴＨＣＹＣＬＯＮＥＴＲＡＣＫＩＮＴＨＥＡＵＳＴＲＡＬＩＡＮＮＯＲＴＨＷＥＳＴＳＨＥＬＦＬｉｒｅｎＹｕ；ＡｎｔｏｎｉｏＭ．Ｒｉｇｈｅｔｔｏ（Ｄｅｐｔ．ｏｆＨｙｄｒａｕｌｉｃｓａｎｄＳａｎｉｔ...     

Numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surge along Jiangsu coast,Part I: Analysis of tropical cyclone

The Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset issued by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, for the period from 1949 to 2013, was analyzed, and the typhoons threatening the Jiangsu coast were categorized into three different classes in terms of track, including typhoons making straight landfall, typhoons active in offshore areas, and typhoons moving northward after landfall. On the basis of the 65-year dataset, the typhoon parameters of these three categories, including the central pressure and the maximum wind speed, were investigated. Statistical analysis suggested that the minimum central pressure increased northward and shoreward gradually. The relationship between the maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure was established through second-order polynomial fitting. Considering typhoons No. 1210, No. 0012, and No. 9711 as the basic typhoons, ten hypothetical cyclones with typical tracks and minimum central pressure occurring during the period from 1949 to 2013 were designed, providing the driving conditions for numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surges along the Jiangsu coast.     

Large-scale 700 hPa Height Patterns Associated with Cyclone Passage and Strong Winds on Lake Erie

The difference in 700 hPa height patterns was examined on a seasonal basis between years with high numbers and low numbers of cyclone passages through Lake Erie, and high and low numbers of strong wind events at Cleveland Hopkins Airport. These show that both cyclones and strong wind events often are associated with atmospheric patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Custom teleconnection indices were derived from these maps of 700 hPa height differences, and the seasonal means of each of these indices were linearly regressed against the number of cyclones and the number of strong wind events in that season for each year. This procedure led to moderate, but statistically significant, correlation coefficients. This gives some basis for probabilistic prediction of cyclone passages and strong wind events at Lake Erie. Actual application in prediction will require skill also in predicting the geopotential heights, and predictions generalized over larger areas may have greater significance and robustness.     

辽河区极端暴雨特性及其天气成因分析

根据辽河区实测和调查年最大点暴雨资料与气象资料,分析了极端暴雨的区域特征以及形成极端暴雨的天气成因,揭示了极端暴雨的基本规律。研究表明,辽河区大部分地区年最大24 h暴雨占3 d暴雨的70%以上;暴雨92.1%集中在7—8月,极端暴雨68.1%高度集中在7月下旬至8月上旬;极端暴雨集中分布在黑山山脉、千山山脉迎风山区、鸭绿江山地丘陵区、辽浑太地区;极端暴雨的年际变率大;极端暴雨以中高纬度"东高西低"、"两高一低"、"波状流"、"经向高压坝",中低纬度副热带高压稳定至最高纬度为高空环流形势背景,暴雨天气系统主要有北方气旋、高空槽、单一冷锋、切变线、锢囚锋、高空低涡、东北冷涡、半热带半温带气旋等,通过中纬度西风槽东移、副热带高压北上、低纬度热带气旋北进等天气系统以及山丘区的地形抬升作用共同造成。     

Numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surge along Jiangsu coast,Part Ⅰ:Analysis of tropical cyclone

The Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset issued by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, for the period from 1949 to 2013, was analyzed, and the typhoons threatening the Jiangsu coast were categorized into three different classes in terms of track, including typhoons making straight landfall, typhoons active in offshore areas, and typhoons moving northward after landfall. On the basis of the 65-year dataset, the typhoon parameters of these three categories, including the central pressure and the maximum wind speed, were investigated. Statistical analysis suggested that the minimum central pressure increased northward and shoreward gradually. The relationship between the maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure was established through second-order polynomial fitting. Considering typhoons No. 1210, No. 0012, and No. 9711 as the basic typhoons, ten hypothetical cyclones with typical tracks and minimum central pressure occurring during the period from 1949 to 2013 were designed, providing the driving conditions for numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surges along the Jiangsu coast.     

分布式水文模型软件系统MWEasyDHM 简介

本文介绍了分布式水文模型EasyDHM模型的软件系统MWEasyDHM,主要由4个部分组成：（1）面向水文分析的通用GIS软件;（2）前处理模块;（3）模拟模块;（4）后处理模块。其中面向水文分析的通用GIS软件以开源GIS软件MapWindow为基础开发,并包括了其他模块所涉及的基本GIS功能;前处理模块包括基于DEM的水文分析组件,模型参数推求模块和降水量、气象数据插值模块;模拟模块提供了实时计算功能,能实时查看模拟结果;模型后处理模块包括了模型参数自动识别、运算结果统计分析及以表格、图表等方式对模拟结果的展示。MWEasyDHM的开发解决了分布式水文模型快速建模及率定的难题,并为将来升级开发及大范围推广应用奠定了基础。