Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures

Temperature influences the rates of many ecosystem processes. A number of recent studies have found evidence of systematic increases in Great Lakes surface water temperatures. Our study aims to construct empirical relationships between surface water temperatures and local air temperatures that can be used to estimate future water temperatures using future air temperatures generated by global climate models. Remotely sensed data were used to model lake-wide average surface water temperature patterns during the open-water period in Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Surface water temperatures typically exhibit linear warming through the spring, form a plateau in mid-summer and then exhibit linear cooling in fall. Lake-specific warming and cooling rates vary little from year to year while plateau values vary substantially across years. These findings were used to construct a set of lake-specific empirical models linking surface water temperatures to local air temperatures for the period 1995–2006. Hindcasted whole-lake water temperatures from these models compare favourably to independently collected offshore water temperatures for the period 1968–2002. Relationships linking offshore water temperatures to inshore water temperatures at specific sites are also described. Predictions of future climates generated by the Canadian Global Climate Model Version 2 (CGCM2) under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios are used to scope future Great Lakes surface water temperatures: substantial increases are expected, along with increases in the duration of summer stratification.     

Patterns in the crustacean zooplankton community in Lake Winnipeg,Manitoba: Response to long-term environmental change

Changes in the crustacean zooplankton community composition and abundance in Lake Winnipeg (1969–2006) provide a rare opportunity to examine their response to environmental changes in the largest naturally eutrophic lake on the Canadian prairies. Since 1929, zooplankton species composition in Lake Winnipeg has changed little except for the addition of the invasive cladoceran, Eubosmina coregoni in 1994. The dominant taxa in the lake in summer include: Leptodiaptomus ashlandi, Acanthocyclops vernalis, Diacyclops thomasi, Daphnia retrocurva, Daphnia mendotae, Diaphanosoma birgei, Eubosmina coregoni, and Bosmina longirostris. Climate-accelerated nutrient loading to southern Lake Winnipeg over the last two decades has led to increased phytoplankton abundance and higher frequency of cyanobacterial blooms especially in its northern basin. Crustacean zooplankton have likewise increased especially in the North Basin, but less so in the more nutrient rich South Basin, possibly as a consequence of higher densities of pelagic planktivorous fish and light-limited primary production compared with the more transparent North basin (Brunskill et al., 1979, 1980). Calanoid copepods play a larger role in the South basin food web in contrast to cyclopoid copepods and Cladocera in the North basin. The study begins to fill the recognized gap in understanding of Lake Winnipeg's food web structure and provides a baseline for evaluating ongoing changes in the zooplankton community with the arrival of new non-indigenous taxa, e.g. Bythotrephes longimanus and Dreissena polymorpha. It reinforces previous work demonstrating that zooplankton provide valuable indices toward evaluating the health of an ecosystem.     

A simple 1-dimensional,climate based dissolved oxygen model for the central basin of Lake Erie

A linked 1-dimensional thermal-dissolved oxygen model was developed and applied in the central basin of Lake Erie. The model was used to quantify the relative contribution of meteorological forcings versus the decomposition of hypolimnetic organic carbon on dissolved oxygen. The model computes daily vertical profiles of temperature, mixing, and dissolved oxygen for the period 1987–2005. Model calibration resulted in good agreement with observations of the thermal structure and oxygen concentrations throughout the period of study. The only calibration parameter, water column oxygen demand (WCOD), varied significantly across years. No significant relationships were found between these rates and the thermal properties; however, there was a significant correlation with soluble reactive phosphorus loading. These results indicate that climate variability alone, expressed as changes in thermal structure, does not account for the inter-annual variation in hypoxia. Rather, variation in the production of organic matter is a dominant driver, and this appears to have been responsive to changes in phosphorus loads.     

Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed,Canada

The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality of the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, Canada, were assessed for the period 2001–2100, by integrating two models, HBV and INCA-P, and using statistically downscaled data from the Global Circulation Model CGCM3 for two IPCC scenarios (A1b and A2). The effectiveness of catchment management strategies was assessed across the 21st century by simulating controls on sewage treatment works and fertiliser applications, and implementing buffer strips and bank erosion controls.     

土地覆被和气候变化的水文响应研究

采用分布式水文模型SWAT研究北京地区过去10a间径流量剧减的主要原因.采用等高线→TIN→DEM的方法获取研究区分辨率较高的DEM图,基于DEM图提取流域边界、河网、子流域及相关属性,根据土壤类型与土地覆被类型的组合划分水文响应单元,实现下垫面的空间离散;采用校准和验证后率定的参数研究了10a来气候变化和土地覆被变化对径流量的影响.研究表明:10a间土地覆被变化的主要趋势是旱地城市化.过去10a间,由于土地覆被变化导致北运河年均径流量增加了10%～20%,而气候变化导致年均径流量减少了约2/3.     

St. Clair-Detroit River system: Phosphorus mass balance and implications for Lake Erie load reduction,monitoring, and climate change

To support the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement on reducing Lake Erie's phosphorus inputs, we integrated US and Canadian data to update and extend total phosphorus (TP) loads into and out of the St. Clair-Detroit River System for 1998–2016. The most significant changes were decreased loads from Lake Huron caused by mussel-induced oligotrophication of the lake, and decreased loads from upgraded Great Lakes Water Authority sewage treatment facilities in Detroit. By comparing Lake St. Clair inputs and outputs, we demonstrated that on average the lake retains 20% of its TP inputs. We also identified for the first time that loads from resuspended Lake Huron sediment were likely not always detected in US and Canadian monitoring programs due to mismatches in sampling and resuspension event frequencies, substantially underestimating the load. This additional load increased over time due to climate-induced decreases in Lake Huron ice cover and increases in winter storm frequencies. Given this more complete load inventory, we estimated that to reach a 40% reduction in the Detroit River TP load to Lake Erie, accounting for the missed load, point and non-point sources other than that coming from Lake Huron and the atmosphere would have to be reduced by at least 50%. We also discuss the implications of discontinuous monitoring efforts.     

呼伦湖水生态环境遥感监测及其对气候变化的响应

以位于内蒙古的第一大湖-呼伦湖为研究对象,综合应用RS、GIS等现代分析技术手段,通过解译该区1973、1975、1986～2009年近36a的MSS、TM、ETM遥感影像,实现了呼伦湖湖泊水位、面积的遥感动态监测,并建立了关系模型：研究发现呼伦湖面积在1999年达到了1959年以来的最大水面面积2106．95km2后开始骤然下降到2009年的最低水面面积1813．69km2。以24．44km2／a的速度减少了293．26km2,水面面积比1999年最大面积时减少了近14％。水位高程自1999年的最高水位下降了3．94m,是呼伦湖平均水深（9m）的39．4％。收集、整理了呼伦湖及上游流域4个气象站点、3个水文站点近52a的气象、水文资料。分析了呼伦湖区域尺度内的水热状况变化,发现研究区域温度升高。降水呈波动性减少．并且在1999年后温度和降水的变率增大,是呼伦湖面积减小、水位下降的主要原因。最后．分析了气候变化对呼伦湖生态环境的影响效应。并建立了湖泊水位和降水、气温等气象因子以及径流量之间的关系模型．研究可为寒旱区湖泊水环境管理提供参考。     

Exploring the future impacts of urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha,Tanzania

ABSTRACT

We combine satellite imagery, urban growth modelling, groundwater modelling and hydrogeological field expeditions to estimate the potential impacts in 2050 of rapid urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha, Tanzania, and by extension similar areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that a reduction of groundwater recharge by 30–44% will cause groundwater levels to drop by up to 75 m, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration and to an expansion in paved surface. If this scenario becomes reality, we predict that wells will run dry, creating health, social and environmental risks.     

Reconstruction of lake-level and climate changes in Lake Qarun,Egypt, during the last 7000 years

Sediment cores from Lake Qarun provide a record of mid-late Holocene climatic changes in Northern and Eastern Africa as well as environmental changes due to the activities of ancient Egyptians. We used sedimentological, mineralogical, and geochemical analyses of the cores to investigate long-term variations in lake level due to changing hydrologic inputs. An age model based on three paired ¹⁴C and paleomagnetic measurements suggests that the base of the sediment cores is as old as ∼ 5000 B.C.E. Geochemical analyses indicated that lake sediments were derived from Nile floods with an admixture of Saharan sand. Laminated endogenic carbonate-rich clayey silt lithofacies with benthic diatoms are indicative of relatively low lake levels, saline waters and dry conditions; massive lithofacies with planktonic diatom species are indicative of relatively high lake levels, fresh waters and humid conditions. Faintly laminated clayey silt lithofacies suggest intermediate conditions. Variations in lithology as well as diatom composition suggest that the lake level has varied from relatively high levels in its early history to lower levels in later years although there have been numerous cycles in water level over the past 7000 years. A combination of climate changes in the source area of the Nile River as a result of monsoon dynamics; climatic changes in the setting area of the Lake Qarun; and human activities through the dynasties in Egypt produced these variations in lake level.     

Effects of using air temperature as a proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are regularly assessed with hydrologic models that use air temperature as a proxy to compute potential evapotranspiration (PET). This approach is taken in the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM), which has been used several times for calculation of the runoff from the terrestrial part of the Great Lakes basin under climate change scenarios, with the results widely cited. However, a balance between incoming and outgoing energy, including the latent heat of evaporation, is a fundamental requirement for a land surface, and is not enforced under this approach. For calculating PET and evapotranspiration (ET) in climate change scenarios, we use an energy budget-based approach to adjusting the PET as an alternative that better satisfies conservation of energy. Using this new method, the increase in ET under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations has reduced magnitude compared to that projected using the air temperature proxy. This results in either a smaller decrease in net basin supply and smaller drop in lake levels than using the temperature proxy, or a reversal to increased net basin supply and higher lake levels. An additional reason not to rely on a temperature proxy relation is that observational evidence demonstrates that the correlation between air temperature and ET (or PET) is restricted to the mean annual cycle of these variables. This brings into question the validity of air temperature as a proxy for PET when considering non-annual variability and secular changes in the climate regime.     

The post-glacial history of northern Lake of the Woods: A multi-proxy perspective on climate variability and lake ontogeny

Lake of the Woods (LOW) is a large, morphologically and hydrologically complex lake of international importance, located in the provinces of Ontario and Manitoba and the state of Minnesota. A high-resolution sedimentary sequence retrieved near Kenora, Ontario, and spanning at least the past ~11,000?cal?yr?BP (calibrated years before present), was analysed for multiple environmental proxies with an emphasis on diatom assemblage composition and spectrally-inferred chlorophyll a. These biological proxies indicate that northern LOW was relatively nutrient-rich soon after its isolation from glacial Lake Agassiz ~10,000?cal?yr?BP. The post-glacial hydrological and environmental history of LOW was found to be controlled by both climate and isostatic rebound. During the low water phase of the mid-Holocene dry and warm period, abrupt and synchronous shifts across all proxies suggest that the northern basin had a relatively deep and well-mixed water column that experienced increases in nutrients and whole-lake algal production. This differs from recent limnological changes associated with warming since the late-1970s, where primary production increased concurrently with large shifts in diatoms indicative of increased thermal stability, but with little change in nutrients. The millennial-scale context of this study provides evidence that climate has long played an important role in algal dynamics in LOW, with implications for lake management strategies concerning recent increases in nuisance algal blooms on LOW.     

Major shift in the phenology of crustacean biomass in western Lake Superior associated with temperature anomaly

Variable weather patterns during the early months of 2014 and 2015 resulted in differences between years in spring and summer surface water temperatures in the offshore areas of western Lake Superior. Zooplankton were collected in western Lake Superior during several cruises from late spring to early fall in 2014 and 2015 to test the hypotheses that colder summer water temperatures in 2014 were correlated with reduced zooplankton biomass, later peaks in zooplankton biomass, and a smaller contribution of warm-water taxa to the zooplankton assemblage. The total amount of zooplankton biomass from early June through early October did not differ greatly between years. Of the taxonomic subcategories (large-bodied calanoids, small-bodied calanoids, cyclopoids, nauplii, and herbivorous cladocerans) however, cyclopoid and cladoceran biomass was somewhat smaller in 2014 compared to 2015, providing some support for the hypothesis that warm-water taxa contribute less to offshore zooplankton biomass in colder years. The timing of peak biomass for cladocerans, small-bodied calanoids, and cyclopoids did not differ between years, but peaks in the biomass of copepod nauplii and large-bodied calanoids (primarily Limnocalanus macrurus) occurred several weeks later in 2014 than 2015 which was evidence for phenological delay during a year with unusually cold spring and summer surface water temperatures. Though this study only evaluates the role of temperature in driving zooplankton biomass and phenology in Lake Superior, it does provide insight into the potential effects of climate variability on the Lake Superior food web.     

The effects of climate change on the water resources of the Geumho River Basin,Republic of Korea

Assessments of the variation and vulnerability of water resources due to climate change are essential for future planning in agriculture. In this study, the impacts and uncertainty associated with climate change on water resources in the Geumho River Basin were measured based on the relative change in the mean annual runoff and the aridity index. Statistically adjusted and downscaled multi-ensemble General Circulation Model (GCM) predicted rainfall and temperature data for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were applied to two lumped parameter conceptual rainfall runoff models. The results revealed considerable uncertainty in the projected temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff and aridity index (AI). Additionally, temperature and rainfall were predicted to increase significantly in the future. The PET was projected to increase by a mean (range) of 9% (7–12%), 18% (9–30%) and 25% (8–49%), while the mean annual runoff was projected to change by a mean (range) of 1% (−33 to 40%), −9% (−47 to 27%) and −4% (−44 to 35%), in the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s, respectively. The AI was projected to decrease in the future, particularly for the RCP8.5. Overall, the results of this study indicate that climate change will most likely lead to lower water resource levels than are currently present in the Geumho River Basin.     

Analysis of the effect of climate change on the Nakdong river stream flow using indicators of hydrological alteration

This study models the effect of climate change on runoff in southeast Korea using the TANK conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The results are assessed using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) developed by U.S. Nature Conservancy. Future climate time series are obtained by scaling historical series, provided by four global climate models (GCMs, IPCC, 2007) and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2000), to reflect a maximum increase of 3.6 °C in the average surface air temperature and 33% in the annual precipitation. To this end, the spatio-temporal change factor method is used, which considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as the daily rainfall distribution. In this study, the variance range for precipitation is from +3.55% to +33.44% compared to the present for years between 2071 and 2100. The variance range for the daily mean temperature is estimated between +1.59 °C and +3.58 °C. Although the simulation results from different GCMs and GHG emissions scenarios indicate different responses of the flows to the climate change, the majority of modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. According to the analysis results, the predicted impacts of hydrological alteration caused by climate change on the aquatic ecosystem are as follows: 1) an increase in the availability of aquatic ecosystem habitats in Nakdong River in future summers and winters, 2) an increase in stress on the aquatic ecosystem due to extremely high stream flow, 3) an increase in the stress duration of flood events for the Nakdong River downstream and 4) an increase in aquatic ecosystem stress caused by rapid increases or decreases in stream flow.     

Influence of episodic wind events on thermal stratification and bottom water hypoxia in a Great Lakes estuary

Hypoxia formation and breakdown were tracked during 2015 in Muskegon Lake estuary at multiple locations, and five years (2011–2015) of time-series buoy observatory data were evaluated for the effect of episodic wind-events on lake mixing. Bi-weekly water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles at four locations revealed that hypoxia occurred at all sites and persisted for 2–3 months during summer 2015. On one date in late-summer, up to 24% of the lake’s volume was estimated to be mildly hypoxic (DO < 4 mg L^?1) as defined by lake sturgeon requirements. Patterns of wind speed and water column stability in late spring indicated that high winds and low stability delayed the onset of hypoxia while in late summer low winds and high stability delayed degradation of hypoxia. Wind speeds appear to play a great role in the interannual variability of stratification and subsequent hypoxia. Water temperature and DO profiles taken before and after one mid-summer mixing event (wind speed >7.7 m s^?1 for 10 h), indicated that while the wind was unable to completely mix the entire water column, it deepened the epilimnion by ～1.5 m and sheared a thin layer from the upper hypolimnion. By entraining internally loaded nutrients, such episodic wind-events may initiate and sustain algal blooms in nutrient limited surface waters. Quantifying the variable role of wind and mixing events will be key to integrating limnological processes into climate models of the future.     

The 2017 African Great Lakes Conference: Conservation and development in a changing climate

In May 2017, the African Great Lakes community convened for a region-wide conference in Entebbe, Uganda. The African Great Lakes Conference (AGLC) focused on 6 regionally-important themes, and 300+ attendees presented over 100 talks and posters. The AGLC culminated in the adoption of a set of Conference Resolutions designed to direct the future of African Great Lakes conservation and management. As an Introduction to this Journal of Great Lakes Research special section on African Great Lakes, we report on the impetus for the African Great Lakes Conference as well as discuss three major advances and investments that were a direct result of conference resolutions adopted at the meeting. First, we present the AGLC Resolutions, a set of management issues and solutions developed at the conference. Second, we discuss the African Great Lakes Conference Fund, a conservation fund that has awarded $500,000 USD to launch four new initiatives. Finally, we describe African Great Lakes Inform, a knowledge management platform designed to promote collaboration in the region. The AGLC in general, and these three major conference outcomes specifically, provide a set of basic building blocks to advance partnerships, research and capacity in the African Great Lakes region.     

Large lakes in climate models: A Great Lakes case study on the usability of CMIP5

Large lakes have an impact on regional weather. In addition, they can be both sensitive to and influence regional climate changes. In the climate models that are used to investigate future climate changes, lakes are greatly simplified and sometimes absent. At the regional scale, this can have strong implications for the quality of the model information about the future. Through our work with climate information users in the Laurentian Great Lakes region, we have found that basic credibility of the information requires the underlying climate models simulate lake-atmosphere-land interactions. We are not aware of efforts within the scientific community to make known how individual large lakes are represented in models and how those representations translate to the quality of the data for particular regions. We share our framework for identifying how the Laurentian Great Lakes are represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 5 climate models. We found that most CMIP5 models do not simulate the Great Lakes in a way that captures their impact on the regional climate, which is a credibility issue for their projections. We provide a perspective on the usability of CMIP5 for practitioners in the Great Lakes region and offer recommendations for alternative options.     

Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework

Evaluating the potential effects of changes in climate on conservation practices can help inform strategies to protect freshwater biodiversity that are robust, even as conditions change. Here we apply a climate change “test” to a framework for estimating the amount of agricultural conservation practices needed to achieve desired fish conservation outcomes for four watersheds in the Saginaw Bay region of Michigan, USA. We developed three climate scenarios from global climate model outputs (high emissions scenario, “2080s” timeframe) to provide insight on potential impacts of a climate driver that represents a key uncertainty for this management system, the amount and timing of spring and summer precipitation. These scenarios were used as inputs to agricultural watershed models, which produced water quality outputs that we compared to thresholds in fish biodiversity metrics at the subwatershed scale. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on evaporation rates and other aspects of hydrology will shift the relative importance of key stressors for fish (i.e., sediment loadings vs. nutrient concentrations) across these different watersheds, highlighting the need to design resilient implementation plans and policies. Overall, we found that changes in climate are likely to increase the need for agricultural conservation practices, but that increasing the implementation rate above current levels will likely remain a good investment under current and future climate conditions.     

鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程的作用及其影响研究

本文针对鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程修建后将发挥的作用和可能产生的影响,采用现场调研、实测资料分析和数学模型计算等研究手段,从鄱阳湖流域水资源演变趋势及开发利用状况,三峡水库运用对长江中下游河道冲淤变化及江湖关系的影响,枢纽工程对水资源、防洪、湖区水环境、鱼类的影响,枢纽工程合适的下闸蓄水时期和蓄水位、工程闸门型式及鱼道建设等方面进行了研究,试图为鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程项目立项和规划设计提供科技支撑。