Mixing Patterns and Plankton Biomass of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes under Climate Change Scenarios

This study is part of an assessment of potential effects of climate change on the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Its purpose is to investigate potential future lake mixing patterns and primary production. Nested physical and biological models were applied to seasonal mixed layer depth, heat content, primary productivity, and to algal biomass measured as particulate chlorophyll. Two independent second generation General Circulation Models provided scenarios for future conditions of cloud cover, air temperature, humidity, and winds. The climate variables were used to force heat balance and surface mixed layer models for Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Physical models of heat balance and mixed layer dynamics were coupled with a model of primary biological production and growth of phytoplankton. Simulated climate conditions were for time periods centered at 1975, 2030, 2050, and 2090. Climate projections from both GCMs lead to elevated mixed layer and bottom temperatures in all five lakes by as much as 5°C during this century. Both GCMs point to longer duration of thermal stratification in the five lakes, stronger stability of stratification, and deeper daily mixing depths during peak thermal stratification. For Lake Erie, no striking differences in algal biomass are likely according to climate projections of either model, but for the other lakes, either the duration of nutrient limitation of algal growth is projected to increase, or light limitation caused by deeper mixing is projected to limit the development of algal biomass.     

The Potential Influence of Climate Change on Offshore Primary Production in Lake Michigan

This paper examines the potential influence of climate change on the primary productivity of Lake Michigan. Two general circulation models (GCMs) provided physical information on projected regional climate for the years 2030, 2050, and 2090. A 30-year record of meteorological data and limnological observations, from 1961 to through1990, was used to define present, baseline conditions for the lake. GCM output was used to develop scenarios of future thermal characteristics, mixing patterns, and surface irradiance, which were then used to drive primary production calculations. Mean annual primary production for the base period was 116 g C/m². Under base conditions thermal stratification of the lake occurred on 13 June and extended 135 days until 26 October. Conditions projected for 2090 showed the mean date of stratification beginning as early as 5 April and remaining for 225 days until 20 November. Estimated mean annual primary production under these conditions totaled 113 g C/m2, a decrease of 3% from the mean base value. Under the most extreme conditions of maximum projected cloud cover for 2090, primary production in that year could fall to 101 g C/m², a decrease of 13% from the base mean, or down 22% from maximum base production calculated under minimum base cloud cover conditions. The projected decrease may be attributed to physical/chemical constraints imposed on spring primary production by altered climate conditions. Early stratification would shorten the period of winter-spring mixing, during which time nutrients from the sediment are transported to the productive euphotic zone. The spring bloom was projected to diminish if early stratification capped the nutrient supply, and increased cloud cover reduced light input for photosynthesis. To a lesser extent fall production could also be reduced by the extension of the stratified period. Altered physical/chemical conditions influenced by a changing climate will be an important factor to consider in assessing future water quality conditions, primary production and the food web dynamics of the Great Lakes.     

Climate change does not explain historical changes in the pelagic ecosystem of Lake Kariba (Zambia–Zimbabwe)

Recent studies on the pelagic ecosystem of Lake Kariba identified a number of changes in its thermal regime, planktonic communities and fishery production, concluding they were the result of climate change, particularly warming. This study re‐examines these conclusions and suggests alternative explanations for these changes. Historical data suggest there was no warming of the lake until at least the 1990s. Furthermore, lack of recent data makes it difficult to conclude that the lake’s temperature has increased by 2 °C. It is also not clear that the pattern of thermal stratification has changed, or that the thermocline has risen and become more stable. Although one of the suggested effects of climate change was a decreased number of larger zooplankton, this change occurred in the 1970s, when there had been no change in the lake temperature. Rather, there is strong evidence that the zooplankton composition changed as a result of selective predation by the introduced clupeid, Limnothrissa miodon. Furthermore, the loss of large grazing zooplankton species could have affected the composition of the phytoplankton, although this phenomenon also has been attributed to climate change. Although the phytoplankton communities in the lake are not as well documented as the zooplankton communities, it is clear that many changes in the lake actually began in the 1970s. Finally, the decline in the pelagic fishery for Limnothrissa was also linked to temperature changes. However, because the fisheries on the Zambian and Zimbabwean sides exhibited very different behaviours, there is little evidence to support this conclusion. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change on Lake Kariba are likely to be complex and that possible over‐simplification in identifying these impacts will not facilitate our understanding of these complexities.     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Lake Regulation in the Vuoksi Watershed in Finland

The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Vuoksi watershed in eastern Finland were studied in order to assess the possibilities to adapt lake regulation to the projected changes. A conceptual watershed model and several climate scenarios were used to estimate the effects of climate change on three lakes in the Vuoksi watershed for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. The adaptation possibilities were studied by using alternative regulation strategies. In Lake Pielinen the impacts of these water level changes on social, economic and ecological indicators were assessed with two different outflow strategies. According to the results, climate change will alter snow accumulation and melt and therefore cause large seasonal changes in runoff and water levels. Runoff and water levels will decrease during late spring and summer and increase during late autumn and winter. In some lakes current calendar-based regulation practices and limits, which have been developed based on past hydrology, may not be appropriate in the future. Modifying the regulation practices and limits is a necessary and effective way to adapt to climate change.     

Climate Change and Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks, with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar, suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production, fisheries, and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia, vulnerabilities would still exist, and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect, reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate.     

A modeling approach to simulate impact of climate change in lake water quality: Phytoplankton growth rate assessment

Global climate change induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (especially CO₂) is expected to include changes in precipitation, wind speed, incoming solar radiation, and air temperature. These major climate variables directly influence water quality in lakes by altering changes in flow and water temperature balance. High concentration of nutrient enrichment and expected variability of climate can lead to periodic phytoplankton blooms and an alteration of the neutral trophic balance. As a result, dissolved oxygen levels, with low concentrations, can fluctuate widely and algal productivity may reach critical levels. In this work, we will present: 1) recent results of GCMs climate scenarios downscaling project that was held at the University of Derby, UK.; 2) current/future comparative results of a new mathematical lake eutrophication model (LEM) in which output of phytoplankton growth rate and dissolved oxygen will be presented for Suwa lake in Japan as a case study. The model parameters were calibrated for the period of 1973–1983 and validated for the period of 1983–1993. Meteorologic, hydrologic, and lake water quality data of 1990 were selected for the assessment analysis. Statistical relationships between seven daily meteorological time series and three airflow indices were used as a means for downscaling daily outputs of Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2SUL) to the station sub-grid scale.     

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: implications for freshwater ecosystems

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee–Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river–floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee–Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee–Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre‐large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tonle Sap Lake: Current status and important research directions for environmental management

Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) in Cambodia is the largest freshwater body in South‐East Asia and one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. The lake and its ecosystems are widely under threat, however, due to anthropogenic activities occurring inside and outside its basin (e.g., water infrastructure development; land use change), being poorly understood in most aspects. This study provides an updated review of the state of knowledge of the TSL ecosystem, as well as important research directions for sustainable lake environmental management of Tonle Sap Lake by focusing on four major topics, including climate change and hydrology, sediment dynamics, nutrient dynamics and primary and secondary production. The findings of this study suggest anthropogenic activities in the TSL basin, as well as the Mekong, in combination together with climate changes, are key contributing factors in the degradation of the TSL ecosystem. Insufficient accurate data, however, precludes quantitative assessment of such impacts, making it difficult to quantitatively assess and accurately understand the ecosystem process in the lake ecosystem. More efforts are recommended in regard to environmental monitoring in all sub‐basins around TSL, assessing seasonal changes in nutrient and sediment inputs corresponding to water level and flow changes, assessing cumulative impacts of water infrastructure and climate change on the ecosystem dynamics, and elucidation of ecosystem processes within the lake's internal system.     

Synergy of climate change and local pressures on saltwater intrusion in coastal urban areas: effective adaptation for policy planning

ABSTRACT

This article examines the relative impacts of anthropogenic interventions and global climate change on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion in highly urbanized coastal aquifers. For this purpose, simulations of the impacts of sea-level rise and abstraction scenarios for the near future were undertaken for a pilot aquifer using a multi-objective 3D variable-density flow and solute transport model. We find that sea-level rise associated with climate change has less influence on the encroachment of salinity than anthropogenic abstraction, which has a more appreciable impact on saltwater intrusion through greater sensitivity to water consumption and seasonality.     

Our current understanding of lake ecosystem response to climate change: What have we really learned from the north temperate deep lakes?

Climatic change is recognized as an important factor capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lake ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change. Several long time-series studies have shown close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food-web structure. Understanding the complex interplay between climate, hydrological variability, and ecosystem structure and functioning is essential to inform water resources risk assessment and fisheries management. The purpose of this paper is to present the current understanding of climate-induced changes on lake ecosystem phenology. We first review the ability of climate to modulate the interactions among lake hydrodynamics, chemical factors, and food-web structure in several north temperate deep lakes (e.g., Lake Washington, Lake Tahoe, Lake Constance, Lake Geneva, Lake Baikal, and Lake Zurich). Our aim is to assess long-term trends in the physical (e.g., temperature, timing of stratification, and duration of ice cover), chemical (e.g., nutrient concentrations), and biological (e.g., timing of the spring bloom, phytoplankton composition, and zooplankton abundance) characteristics of the lakes and to examine the signature of local weather conditions (e.g., air temperature and rainfall) and large-scale climatic variability (e.g., ENSO and PDO) on the lake physics, chemistry and biology. We also conducted modeling experiments to quantify the relative effect of climate change and nutrient loading on lake phenology. These modeling experiments focused on the relative changes to the major causal associations underlying plankton dynamics during the spring bloom and the summer stratified period. To further understand the importance of climate change on lakes, we propose two complementary directions of future research. First, additional research is needed to elucidate the wide array of in-lake processes that are likely to be affected by the climate change. Second, it is essential to examine the heterogeneity in responses among different water bodies. The rationale of this approach and its significance for dealing with the uncertainty that the climate signals cascade through lake ecosystems and shape abiotic variability and/or biotic responses have been recently advocated by several other synthesis papers.     

Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability

Climate change could have impacts on hydrologic systems threatening, availability of water supply resources. In Illinois, regional water supply planning efforts are attempting to better understand potential impacts on low flow and surface water availability through analysis of hydrologic sensitivity to a range of climate scenarios. This paper explores the development, calibration and validation of Fox River watershed model using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the model’s application to assess impacts of potential climate change. The watershed model is calibrated and validated using daily flow records at three gauging stations. Automatic model calibration followed by manual refinement of parameter values was performed. Calibration results were generally good for monthly and annual time step but only satisfactory for daily simulations. Based on simulations of global climate models produced for IPCC fourth assessment report, climate scenarios were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey for water supply planning initiatives in north-east and east-central Illinois. These scenarios showed ranges of temperature change between 0°C to +3.3°C and annual precipitation changes between −127 to +127 mm in the next 50 years, excluding the 5% extreme ends of those climate model simulations considered. Changes in climate were reflected using adjustments to the historical record, instead of using direct outputs from individual climate models. The watershed model was used to assess the impact of potential climate change. Application results indicate that annual precipitation change of 127 mm on average increases annual water yield and 7-day low flows by 28% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, a temperature change of +3.3°C results in average reductions of annual water yield by 13% and 7-day low flows by 10%. Seasonal effects were investigated through evaluation of changes in average monthly flows. Increasing precipitation resulted in significant changes in streamflows in late summer and fall months where as increasing temperature greatly affects winter flows due to snowmelt. The key implication is that climate change-induced variability of streamflows could have major impacts on water supply availability in the Fox River watershed and in particular, increased periods of drought could result in deficit of supplies during seasons of peak water use. It must be noted that this analysis does not examine the potential impacts of population growth and water use on water supply availability, which are also expected to have substantial influences in the region.     

Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change

This study attempts to investigate potential impacts of future climate change on streamflow and reservoir operation performance in a Northern American Prairie watershed. System Dynamics is employed as an effective methodology to organize and integrate existing information available on climate change scenarios, watershed hydrologic processes, reservoir operation and water resource assessment system. The second version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled Global Climate Model is selected to generate the climate change scenarios with daily climatic data series for hydrologic modeling. Watershed-based hydrologic and reservoir water dynamics modeling focuses on dynamic processes of both streamflow generation driven by climatic conditions, and the reservoir water dynamics based on reservoir operation rules. The reliability measure describes the effectiveness of present reservoir operation rules to meet various demands which are assumed to remain constant for the next 100 years in order to focus the study on the understanding of the structure and the behaviour of the water supply. Simulation results demonstrate that future climate variation and change may bring more high-peak-streamflow occurrences and more abundant water resources. Current reservoir operation rules can provide a high reliability in drought protection and flood control.     

Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?

In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.     

African lake management initiatives: The global connection

There is a global dimension to lake management in Africa and elsewhere that will require a concerted action not only from individual riparian states, but also from regional, continental and global communities. The current global lake threats arise from climate change, regional land degradation and semivolatile contaminants, and share the common feature that the atmosphere is the vector that spreads their impacts over large areas and to many lakes. The Great Lakes of Africa (Malawi, Victoria and Tanganyika) are particularly sensitive to these problems because of their enormous surface areas, slow water flushing rates, and the importance of direct rainfall in their water budgets. Their response times might be slow to yield a detectable change and, unfortunately, their recovery times might also be slow. It is possible for atmospheric effects to act antagonistically to the impacts of catchment change, but antagonistic effects could become synergistic in the future. Improved understanding of the physical dynamics of these lakes, and development of models linking their physical and biogeochemical behaviour to regional, mesoscale climate models, will be necessary to guide lake managers.     

Water Balance of Zhangdu Lake in Yangtze River Basin

1 IntroductionIn the central Yangtze Basin in China ,there were thou-sands of large lakes .In the past , most of them were naturallyconnected with rivers ,such as the Yangtze ,but gradually losttheir hydrological and biological linkages due to both natura…     

Optimal Hydropower Generation Under Climate Change Conditions for a Northern Water Resources System

This paper examines climate change impacts on the water resources system of the Manicouagan River (Québec, Canada). The objective is to evaluate the performance of existing infrastructures under future climate projections and the associated uncertainties. The main purpose of the water resources system is hydropower production. A reservoir optimization algorithm, Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), was used to derive weekly operating decisions for the existing system subject to reservoir inflows reflecting future climate, for optimum hydropower production. These projections are simulations from the SWAT hydrologic model for climate change scenarios for the period from 2010 to 2099. Results show that the climate change will alter the hydrological regime of the study area: earlier timing of the spring flood, reduced spring peak flow, and increased annual inflows volume in the future compared to the historical climate. The SSDP optimization algorithm adapted the operating policy to the future hydrological regime by adjusting water reservoir levels in the winter and spring, and increasing the release through turbines, which in the end increased power generation. However, there could be more unproductive spills for some power plants, which would decrease the overall efficiency of the existing water resources system.     

长江中游涨渡湖的水平衡分析与研究

在识别和计算所有入流和出流成分的基础上,建立了涨渡湖的水平衡方程和模型,分析了当前平常年该湖的总水量增减状况。然后,在气候变化研究以及由此归纳出的未来可能出现的气候变化情景下,对2030、2050、2080和2100年的年度湖水位变化趋势进行了预测,同时对未来可能出现的干旱和极端干旱情景进行了水的可获得性(可用性)风险分析。     

基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应

气候和土地利用同时作用于流域径流,影响着流域水资源的量和质。以浏阳河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和情景分析方法定量评估未来流域内土地利用和气候变化对径流的作用。首先采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟浏阳河流域2020和2050年的土地利用空间格局,其次在World Clim数据库中获得未来流域内气候变化数据,最后采用SWAT模型定量评估未来不同情境下土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明:未来浏阳河流域林地比例下降、城市建设用地和耕地比例增加;气候呈暖干趋势; 2020和2050年,土地利用变化时,浏阳河榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少2. 42和0. 96 m~3/s;气候变化时,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少3. 02和1. 13 m~3;土地利用和气候变化综合影响下,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少8. 54和4. 27 m~3/s;说明浏阳河流域径流的变化对气候响应更加敏感,土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈非线性协同作用。     

Satellite remote sensing reveals impacts from dam‐associated hydrological changes on chlorophyll‐a in the world's largest desert lake

We present an approach that uses satellite products to derive models for predicting lake chlorophyll from environmental variables, and for investigating impacts of changing environmental flows. Lake Turkana, Kenya, is the world's largest desert lake, and environmental flows from the Omo River have been modified since 2015 by the Gibe III dam in Ethiopia. Using satellite remote sensing, we have evaluated the influence of these altered hydrological patterns on large‐scale lake phytoplankton concentrations for the first time. Prior to dam completion, strong seasonal cycles and large spatial gradients in chlorophyll have been observed, related to natural fluctuations in the Omo River's seasonal discharge. During this period, mean lake chlorophyll showed a strong relationship with both river inflows and lake levels. Empirical models were derived which considered multiple hydro‐climatic drivers, but the best model for predicting chlorophyll‐a was a simple model based on Omo River discharge. Application of this model to data for 2015–2016 estimated that during the filling of Gibe III annual mean Lake Turkana chlorophyll declined by 30%. Future water management scenarios based on Gibe III operations predict reduced seasonal chlorophyll‐a variability, while irrigation scenarios showed marked declines in chlorophyll‐a depending on the level of abstraction. These changes demonstrate how infrastructure developments such as dams can significantly alter lake primary production. Our remote sensing approach is easy to adapt to other lakes to understand how their phytoplankton dynamics may be affected by water management scenarios.     

Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning

In recent years, droughts with increasing severity and frequency have been experienced around the world due to climate change effects. Water planning and management during droughts needs to deal with water demand variability, uncertainties in streamflow prediction, conflicts over water resources allocation, and the absence of necessary emergency schemes in drought situations. Reservoirs could play an important role in drought mitigation; therefore, development of an algorithm for operation of reservoirs in drought periods could help to mitigate the drought impacts by reducing the expected water shortages. For this purpose, the probable drought’s characteristics and their variations in response to factors such as climate change should be incorporated. This study aims at developing a contingency planning scheme for operation of reservoirs in drought periods using hedging rules with the objective of decreasing the maximum water deficit. The case study for evaluation of the performance of the proposed algorithm is the Sattarkhan reservoir in the Aharchay watershed, located in the northwestern part of Iran. The trend evaluations of the hydro-climatic variables show that the climate change has already affected streamflow in the region and has increased water scarcity and drought severity. To incorporate the climate change study in reservoir planning; streamflow should be simulated under climate change impacts. For this purpose, the climatic variables including temperature and precipitation in the future under climate change impacts are simulated using downscaled GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs to derive scenarios for possible future drought events. Then a hydrological model is developed to simulate the river streamflow, based on the downscaled data. The results show that the proposed methodology leads to less water deficit and decreases the drought damages in the study area.