Land banking and housing prices: A comment

Conclusions It was not the intent of this note to argue the question of the efficiency of a municipal land bank compared with a private land market nor the even more difficult question of the desirability of a land bank. Rather, the focus was on the impact that a municipal land bank, operated in a variety of ways, could have on housing prices.A land banking program could effectively reduce the price of housing below that which would prevail under a competitively organized, private land market. In order to achieve this result, the municipal authority would have to provide lots as demanded and systematically sell them below the price that would prevail in a private market.A land bank which provided lots as demanded, at the private market price, would produce results in the housing market identical with those obtained under a private land market.A land bank that limited the number of lots made available would actually force the market price of housing above that which would prevail given an unconstrained private land market, regardless of the price charged for lots.This analysis was conducted in a short-run context. Extension to the long-run would affect the position of the supply schedule for new houses and thus THS, but should not alter the general conclusions.     

基于VAR模型的居民杠杆率与住房价格关系研究

基于我国居民杠杆率快速攀升，以及房价持续上涨的现象，采用2005~2017年我国经验数据，以VAR模型为基础，借助Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法，实证检验了居民杠杆率与住房价格之间的互动关系。结果表明:购房信贷对居民杠杆率具有单向Granger因果关系，购房信贷扩张导致居民杠杆率上升；居民杠杆率与住房价格之间存在双向Granger因果关系，两者循环互推、螺旋上升。结果可能会加剧我国房价泡沫风险，据此提出了加强住房市场的预期管理、分散居民加杠杆在住房买卖市场的集中度以及加强信贷管理等对策建议。     

北京市房价和地价关系分析

利用北京市的相关数据,采用Granger因果关系检验分析方法,定量分析北京市房价和地价的因果关系,发现:从短期看,房价对地价存在着较为显著的影响,从中长期看,房价与地价各自由自身的供求关系决定,互相之间没有显著的因果关系。     

The incomplete privatization of the Dutch housing market: Exploding house prices versus falling house-building output

This paper addresses the coordination problems in the liberalized housing market in the Netherlands during the 1990–2004 period. In particular, the mismatch between the explosion in house prices and the stagnation in house-building activities during the past six years is under investigation. It is argued that there is still a marked discrepancy between the language used in the policy discourse and the supply and demand situation on the Dutch housing market. One could argue that the Dutch government implemented a double-hearted, incomplete privatization. As a result of the mismatch between actual housing policy and market developments, output is stagnating and the housing shortage is growing sharply. The closing section presents some possible means to overcome these problems.     

商品住房市场土地供给政策调控的传导机制分析

土地供给政策在中央及各城市的房地产调控政策文件中频繁出现,表明了其在住房市场调控中的重要作用。本文就各土地供给政策工具将如何影响商品住房市场进行研究,希望对土地供给政策的制定提供参考。文章主要通过供求均衡模型分析各土地供给政策对住房市场的作用。并得出如下结论:各土地供给政策通过影响土地市场各环节和住房市场供给弹性对商品住房市场产生影响,其影响渠道较为复杂,但主要土地供给政策工具通过各种渠道影响住房市场的方向是可以判断的。土地供应数量通过住房供给数量、土地价格水平及住房供给预期三种渠道影响住房市场,且同时从三种渠道对房价产生负向作用;我国2002～2004年进行的土地出让方式改革则通过住房供给数量、土地价格水平和住房供给价格弹性影响住房市场,且三种渠道都会助推房价的上涨。     

Spatial planning and housing policy: On the ties that bind

Spatial planning and housing policy in the Netherlands have supported each other for many years. In addition, spatial planning has played a stimulating role in carrying out spatial policy. Since the end of the 1980s, however, a new coalition has emerged between spatial planning and environmental policy, especially at the intraregional level. In the same period, housing policy has become strongly market-oriented. Thus, frictions have arisen in the relation between spatial planning and housing policy. This paper deals with a number of contradictions between housing policy and spatial planning:

-the artificial shortage of land for housing;

-the tension between urban density and consumer preferences;

-the rigid housing differentiation, which is at odds with the flexibility of housing markets;

-the danger of spatial segregation; and

-the tension between residential construction and environmental priorities.

It proves difficult to combine an ambitious central spatial planning policy with a market-oriented housing policy. A more promising solution would be to approach both fields as a combination of market and policy. This would entail more policy in housing and more market in environmental policy. More coordination between spatial planning and housing policy is both possible and desirable.     

The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume

In this study, the ripple effect in four regional housing markets in the USA (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) was examined by analyzing housing prices, which is a method that has been primarily used in other studies, and the transfer of information in the transaction volume data of regional markets. First, the ripple index between regional housing markets was estimated using housing price and transaction volume. Findings revealed that the ripple effect in the transaction volume of regional housing markets was far more evident than that in housing prices and that the two types of ripple effect are negatively correlated. In other words, information between regional housing markets is either transferred through price or volume. In this study, monetary policy, overall economic performance, and new housing market were adopted as variables to analyze the cause and outcomes of the ripple effect. The results show that inflation stemming from an excess supply of money causes a ripple effect of rising regional housing prices. This money illusion leads contractors to believe that the housing market has increasing demand, motivating them to enter into new projects. Once these projects are completed, the increase in supply (new homes for sale) is reflected in the transaction volume of the regional housing market. In this instance, a stagnation in housing prices signifies that information is only transferred in the transaction volume. In short, the rise (housing boom) and fall (housing depression) of transaction volume affect interest rates in the mortgage market.     

Development of house prices in the Netherlands

This contribution concerns the development of prices in the owneroccupied sector in the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on the development over two decades, from 1975 to 1995. That period may be divided into a number of phases of growth and stagnation, as defined by fluctuating house prices. Some explanations for these fluctuations are offered here. These include the influence of regulation by government and other major institutions; demographic developments; developments in the supply of owner-occupied dwellings; developments in a number of economic variables; and the dynamics of the market. Then an attempt is made to estimate how prices will develop in the future. It should be kept in mind that this forecast is based on statistical relations that were calculated with reference to the past. In the event those relations change in the future, the model estimated here would not yield good predictions. Peter Boelhouwer is researcher at the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been general housing policy, housing finance and comparative housing research. Johan Conijn is director of the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been general housing economics, housing finance, and general housing policy. Paul de Vries is assistant-researcher OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been building market and statistical analyses.     

基于变异系数法的住宅项目用地供给机制绩效评价

住宅产业直接关系到居民的切实利益,住宅地产开发的出发点和着陆点都归于土地,因此,土地供给机制是国家宏观调控房地产市场,促进房地产市场有序发展与土地合理高效利用的重要手段,对城市住宅项目具有重要影响文章试图从机制运行的角度对住宅项目用地供给机制进行绩效评价,通过建立用地供给机制评价体系,探索适宜的住宅项目用地供给机制的评价方法,以发现机制运行和目标之间的偏差,采取可行的措施,最终达到机制制定的目标.     

Housing supply,profit and housing production: The case of the United Kingdom,the Netherlands and Germany

This article investigates the relationship between housing production in the private sector and profitability in three European countries: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. The relationship between private sector production and profitability is suggested by Ambrose and Barlow (1987) to be an important contributory factor to understanding levels of house building in Europe. The article utilizes a model of ‘profitability’ based upon three variables: house prices, land prices and building costs. The model is considered with other theories relating to housing production. These are: first, the way in which governments organize housing production, second, the mode of housing development; and third, motivations of house builders themselves. These issues are shown through the results to be significant in explaining why trends in the three countries are dissimilar. The conclusions are that a private sector functions better where government plays a strong steering role, particularly in the land market. The relationship between production and profit is weak where systems of supply exhibit a high degree of speculative activity or where new production relies upon the decisions of individual households rather than firms. The article raises particular questions of definition and comparison. These are in relation to the ‘private sector’ and to the profit model itself.     

The impact of property price on construction output

The interaction between the construction market and the overall economy has attracted much attention, but few studies have investigated the influence of the property market on the construction market in terms of property price. The disaggregated data of Hong Kong’s housing and retail construction sectors are collected to investigate the impact of property price on construction output. The newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and the error correction (EC)-based Granger causality test are employed. The bounds testing results suggest that there exist stable long-run relationships between construction output and property price for both housing and retail construction sectors. Specifically, a 1.00% increase in the housing price and retail price lead to a 0.55% and 0.42% increase in construction outputs for the two sectors respectively. In addition, the Granger causality tests confirm a distinct long-run causal flow from property price to construction output. Furthermore, the proposed ARDL approach provides an effective method for forecasting construction output.     

Incentivizing residential land development

Abstract

The owners of undeveloped urban land are often blamed for restricting housing supply and thereby driving up house prices in the face of increasing demand. This article shows how greater variation in amenity values across a housing market reduces competition between developers and makes delaying development more attractive to landowners. Competition can be enhanced, and development of land accelerated, by reducing this variation. In particular, governments can increase housing supply in more desirable areas by taking actions that boost the amenity value of land in less desirable areas.     

The resurgence of public housing provision in China: the Chongqing programme

Under Chinese neoliberalisation, restructuring of interactions between the market, the state and local governments has encouraged the latter to suppress public housing provision, resulting in serious housing problems for Chinese low-to-middle income households. Since 2007, the state has pursued a public housing revival, laying out various responsibilities for local governments to develop public housing. However, until recently, confronted with significant shortfalls in fiscal and land inputs, local authorities were largely unable to activate construction on an adequate scale. Nonetheless, between 2011 and 2013, the city of Chongqing applied a mode to supply public rental housing on a massive scale. This paper examines the administrative structure and reforms that have ensured the execution of the Chongqing programme. Findings show that specific political and economic incentives of the local officials have played important roles for realising the programme. Moreover, the municipality’s control of land supply and the market have also enabled an efficient cooperation between governmental and market actors for public housing provision.     

Examining the Impacts of Land Supply on Housing Price in Chinese Mega Cities: An Analysis of Prefecture-Level Cities in China from 2009 to 2016

Residential land supply is considered a powerful tool for intervening in the housing market in China. There has been continuous debate on the correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. Based on 35 Chinese prefecture-level cities' panel data from 2009 to 2016, this study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of residential land supply and housing prices, and explores their relationship applying Generalized Moment Models(GMM). The results show that(1) there is an overall downward trend in residential land supply and a significant rise in housing prices in most Chinese mega cities from 2009 to 2016, and the extent varies in four economic-geographical regions;(2) the decrease in the quantity of residential land supply contributes to the rise in housing prices to some degree, but there is no significant correlation between the land supply structure and housing prices. With the integration of socio-economic factors, the quantitative results validate the previous theoretical models of the casual correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. It further depicts the constraint of insufficient residential land supply in Chinese mega cities and claims it to be a contributor of rising housing prices. The paper concludes with implications for housing strategies and future studies.     

REGULATING SCARCITY: THE EFFECTS OF ZONING ON URBAN LAND MARKET CHANGES

This paper explores the dynamics between zoning, land values and neighborhood change from 1960 to 1970. Using a sample of 352 central city and suburban census tracts contained within the Chicago SMSA, this paper examines the influence of zoning on neighborhood land value appreciation and the independent effects of land values and zoning on neighborhood housing changes. Findings show that zoning influenced land value appreciation over the decade within both central city and suburban areas. Central city zoning and land values operated jointly to influence neighborhood housing changes while in suburban areas, zoning mechanisms overrode market forces in influencing neighborhood development patterns. This paper demonstrates the forcefulness of the politics of the urban land market in regulating both land scarcity and land value changes and in influencing metropolitan spatial distributions.     

High dwelling vacancy rate and high prices of housing in Malta a mediterranean phenomenon

Current data from South European countries, especially Malta, indicates the existence of some contradictory forces in the housing market that defy the law of supply and demand and require explanation. In a ‘normal’ housing market, it can be expected that a high dwelling vacancy rate would help keep down the price of housing. In Malta, however, both the vacancy rate and housing prices have been rising in tandem for decades, unabated, even under the recent international market crunch. The government housing policy, which has always stimulated homeownership, is still encouraging new house building. Despite the high number (over 50,000) of vacant dwellings, the authorities issue more than 6,000 building permits annually to the private sector. In this paper we outline and explain the major factors contributing to this unlikely combination. Doing so, we use a welfare-state perspective. We identify and explain the underlying factors that are collectively responsible for such a paradox: the state; the family; the powerful Catholic Church; the underdeveloped Maltese financial market; and the paternalistic culture prevalent in Malta.     

The determinants of informal housing price in Beijing: Village power,informal institutions,and property security

Although the how's of the informal housing market in China has been discussed widely; the answers remain conflicted. Using the theory of new institutional economics, this paper aims to answer two questions: what informal institutions secure the de facto tenure and facilitate the market? and How do informal institutions affect the pricing mechanism? We propose a conceptual framework to investigate the links between informal institutions, de facto tenure, and the price of informal housing. It is argued that villages have the ability to seek political patronage and regulate the market transactions to secure the tenure of informal housing. This ability is authorized by several formalities: the dual land system and the regime of village autonomy. The growing powers of market agencies in local development help strengthen the village's ability. The variances in ability between villages lead to a heterogeneity of tenure security, thus creating price differentials in the market. A higher tenure security increases the housing price. In conclusion, the informal housing market in China is “regulated” by a “semi-formal” system in which both informality and formality work and intertwine. A robust pricing mechanism has been emerging within the context of transition.     

住房市场与土地市场协调性分析

住房市场与土地市场的协调发展是房地产市场健康可持续发展的关键,在引入协调度模型并对住房市场与土地市场协调度模型进行简介的基础上,对全国及35个大中城市特别是一线城市住房市场与土地市场的协调性进行实证分析。根据实证结果分析出目前住房市场与土地市场协调发展中存在的问题,并提出促进二者进一步协调发展的政策建议。     

中低价位商品住宅用地实行限房价出让的理论研究

当前,房价问题已经成为社会各界关注的焦点,如何保证中低价位住房用地的供应是我国土地出让市场迫切需要解决的问题。本文提出,中低价位商品住房用地应采取限房价的方式出让,并对这一出让制度的可行性进行了分析论证。     

Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China)

The amenity value provided by urban green spaces, water bodies and good environmental quality is difficult to assess and incorporate into urban planning and development. Developers and governments in China hitherto have seldom objectively factored these attributes into property pricing and associated decisions. The hedonic pricing method offers an appropriate approach to gauge such external benefits which contribute to real-estate transaction prices. This study explored the impacts of key environmental elements with a bearing on residential housing value in Guangzhou, including window orientation, green-space view, floor height, proximity to wooded areas and water bodies, and exposure to traffic noise. Four large private housing estates composed of multi-storied blocks with similar design and price bracket, catering to the mass property market, were sampled. Transaction price data and structural attributes of 652 dwelling units were acquired directly from developers. Data on environmental attributes were collected in the field. Two functional hedonic pricing method models, linear and semi-log, were constructed. The semi-log model offered comparatively stronger explanatory power and more reliable estimation. High floor on the multi-storey tenement blocks contributed implicitly 9.2% to the selling price. View of green spaces and proximity to water bodies raised housing price, contributing notably at 7.1% and 13.2%, respectively. Windows with a southern orientation with or without complementary eastern or northern views added 1% to the price. Proximity to nearby wooded area without public access was not significant, expressing the pragmatic mindset in the hedonic behavior. Exposure to traffic noise did not influence willingness-to-pay, implying tolerance of the chronic environmental nuisance in the compact city. The study demonstrates that hedonic pricing method could be applied in the Chinese context with an increasingly expanding and privatized property market. It could inform the decisions of policy makers and property developers concerning land selling and buying, land conversion, property development, urban nature conservation, and design of ecological green-space networks.