基于协整理论的电力投资分析与研究

以我国为例,基于1978～2008年的相关数据,采用EVIEWS软件分析了电力投资与电力消费、经济增长之间关系,并应用单位根检验、Granger因果分析和Johansen检验等协整分析方法实证研究了这三者之间关系,建立了误差修正模型寻求长期均衡与短期波动关系.结果表明,该方法有效,电力消费为电力投资的单向Granger原因,电力投资、电力消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,电力消费和经济增长将引起投资的同方向变动.     

河南省能源消费与经济增长关系研究

以河南省为例,基于能源、资本、劳动力三要素的C-D生产函数构建了能源消费与经济增长间关系模型,并采用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,分析了能源消费对GDP的影响.结果表明,河南省的能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,且存在单向格兰杰因果关系,即能源消费导致经济增长,但对经济增长影响最大的是劳动力水平的提高.     

新时代背景下电力投资的协整模型分析

在新时代背景下,中国经济发展进入新阶段,全社会用电量与GDP增速之间的关系出现了新变化,在部分年份2者差异尤为严重。以上海市为例,基于2001～2016年的统计资料,利用Eviews软件对电力投资与电力消费协整分析。结果表明,该方法是有效的,电力消费为电力投资的单向Granger原因,电力投资、电力消费之间具有长期均衡关系,电力消费的增加会导致电力投资的同方向变动。     

环境质量约束下的中国能源需求量研究

本文通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究了经济增长、环境质量和能源消费三者之间的长期均衡关系,并对未来五年的二氧化碳排放量、能源消费量和GDP进行了动态预测。建立了经济发展的能源需求模型和环境约束下的能源消费模型,得出经济产出、能源消费及能源强度三个变量之间及二氧化碳排放量、能源消费及碳强度三个变量之间的长期均衡关系,在此基础上预测未来五年我国能源最优消费量数据。     

“双碳”目标下新疆能源、经济、环境动态关系研究

二十大报告中明确指出要积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,新疆为了实现“双碳”目标正致力于推进能源消费结构从高排放向低碳化转变,研究能源、经济、环境三者关系对合理制定碳减排政策具有重要的意义。选取GDP、能源生产、能源消费、碳排放分别作为经济、能源、环境子系统指标,采用新疆2000-2020年数据构建新疆能源经济环境系统VAR模型,运用Granger、脉冲响应函数、方差分解对3E系统进行动态关系研究。结果表明：新疆经济系统与能源系统、经济系统与环境系统均存在双向Granger因果关系,能源系统与环境系统间存在单向Granger因果关系;新疆经济增长会促进能源消费、能源生产、碳排放量增加,能源消费量增加会抑制经济增长;新疆经济增长、能源生产是碳排放的主要影响因素。新疆应该积极调整产业结构,优化能源消费结构,制定合理碳减排政策,协调经济增长和碳减排之间关系。     

吉林省能源消费与经济增长的关系分析

为了分析吉林省能源消费与经济增长的关系,在引入了能源要素的三要素生产函数模型框架下,对吉林省1990～2017年能源消费总量与GDP进行协整检验、建立误差修正模型、同时进行格兰杰因果关系检验。定量分析的检验结果表明,吉林省能源消费与经济增长之间存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,并且不论长期还是短期的能源消费对促进经济增长均具有显著的正向作用,这意味着吉林省是典型的能源依赖型经济。因此,从优化能源内部结构和发展能源节约型经济两个方面提出具有针对性的对策与建议,更有助于协调吉林省能源消费与经济增长两者之间关系的良好稳定发展。     

基于系统动力学的输配电网投资规划仿真分析

鉴于电网企业正从以最大程度满足用户侧需求为目的,逐步向同时追求保障供电安全和合理的投资经济效益的投资模式转变,通过确定电网投资与负荷增长、投资效益、政策因素和市场作用之间的相互影响关系及设定投资规划各子系统之间及系统内部的参数方程关系,构建了基于系统动力学方法的投资规划动态仿真模型,并以某地区电网发展数据为模型输入,对所建立的模型进行了多情景模拟分析,分别获得基准情景、负荷增长趋缓情景和市场力影响增加情景的仿真结果,验证了模型的有效性。     

我国天然气消费与经济增长的动态关联研究

近年来我国天然气消费量与经济增长都得到了持续稳定的快速发展,经济发展与天然气消费增长表现出一定的同步性和协调性,研究天然气消费与经济增长之间的影响关系具有重要的现实意义。在对天然气消费与经济增长之间的作用机制进行详细分析的基础上,选取2000~2014年我国30个省市的面板数据,以国内生产总值、固定资产投资完成额、天然气消费量、就业人数等为研究变量,基于拓展的C-D生产函数模型进行实证,采用面板分位数回归模型研究在不同经济发展水平下,天然气消费对经济增长影响的边际效应。结果表明,经济发展水平越高,天然气消费对经济增长影响的边际效应越大。通过不同经济发展水平的高、中、低三组数据对研究结论做进一步的验证。我国目前应进一步深化天然气体制改革,对天然气产业链的各个环节放开准入限制,推动投资主体多元化,打破垄断,形成公平的市场竞争;优化天然气定价机制,制定合理的天然气定价方案,引导形成市场化的价格发现机制;同时,政府应鼓励引导天然气消费在各个行业领域的合理应用,积极培育健康的天然气消费市场,对于天然气发电、工业燃气、交通运输用气等天然气应用领域,应给予一定的政策支持和激励措施。     

山西省节能形势与对策

山西省是能源生产大省,也是能源消耗大省,“十五”时期我省GDP年均增长13.12%,能源消费量年均增长12.8%,能源消费弹性系数高达0.98,同期电力消费的弹性系数也一直保持在0.85到1.13之间,我省在经济发展中能源消费的强度很高。我省能源消费占全国能源消费的5.5%,按照全国“十一五     

我国生产部门电力消费的特征分析

本文分析了改革开放以来我国生产部门电力消费的特点与规律,利用能源分解方法研究GDP、产业结构、能源强度、电气化水平等各种因素对电力消费的影响,并针对我国当前电力消费的主要特点及社会经济的可持续发展目标提出了相应的政策建议。     

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of Cote d'Ivoire. Using the data from 1971 to 2008, a test was conducted for the cointegration and Granger causality within an error correction model. Results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP. A unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run. Economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear. In the long run, there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both GDP and industry value added. From these findings, we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path. Accordingly, government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels

Using a neo-classical aggregate production model where capital, labor and energy are treated as separate inputs, this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in China at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal, oil and electricity consumption. Using the Johansen cointegration technique, the empirical findings indicate that there exists long-run cointegration among output, labor, capital and energy use in China at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels. Then using a VEC specification, the short-run dynamics of the interested variables are tested, indicating that there exists Granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to GDP, but does not exist Granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to GDP. On the other hand, short-run Granger causality exists from GDP to total energy, coal and oil consumption, but does not exist from GDP to electricity consumption. We thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in China as: enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply, especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve; enhancing energy efficiency to save energy; diversifying energy sources, energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures; and finally in the long run, transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource- and energy-dependent industries.     

基于改进欧氏距离协调发展度评估模型的电网投资决策方法

电力体制改革新背景下电网投资与经济、电量的协调发展作为电网投资决策的约束条件得到进一步加强。基于广义协调性建立了一套电网投资与经济、电量协调性表征指标,综合考虑电网公司、政府监管部门和电网投资、经济电量各子系统,引入模糊隶属度改进传统的欧氏距离协调发展度模型的理想值取定。并以某省2016~2018年指标进行验证,通过经典判别分析比较与传统方法评估的准确性。结果表明,改进的欧氏距离协调发展度评估模型准确率更高,能较好地应用于电改形势下电网投资、经济和电量的协调发展评估。     

偏远地区电网投资模式及其环境承载率分析

偏远无电地区的电网投资已经成为改善供电服务质量、提高企业效益、协调社会经济发展的重要环节,但偏远无电地区电网的可持续发展必须同时考虑对环境的影响。基于偏远无电地区的现状,分析了偏远无电地区的环境影响因素,构建了环境影响因素指标体系,运用环境承载力理论建立了偏远无电地区电网投资模型,计算了电网延伸、集中光伏发电站、户用光伏发电系统三种投资模式的环境承载率,选取了偏远无电地区最佳的电网投资模式。     

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971–2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector.     

Electricity consumption–growth nexus: The case of Malaysia

The goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) for Malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework. We use time series data for the period 1971–2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long-run relationship. Our results reveal that electricity consumption, real GDP and price share a long-run relationship. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimates of long-run elasticity of electricity consumption on GDP are found to be around 0.7 and statistically significant. Finally, in the short-run, the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in Malaysia. From these findings we conclude that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country, leading us to draw some policy implications. This paper adds support and validity, thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in Malaysia.     

电力消费与经济发展关系国际实证分析——基于长期历史数据的考察

实证分析表明,不论以市场汇率法还是以购买力平价法表示,从长期视角审视,英国、美国、日本人均电力消费与人均GDP的长期历史趋势呈现出快速增长和慢速增长两个不同的阶段,韩国仍然处于快速增长的第一阶段,而且定量分析表明人均电力消费与人均GDP在这两个阶段都具有较高的线性拟合优度;英国、美国、日本电力强度的长期历史趋势呈现倒"V"形模式,韩国电力强度仍然处于倒"V"形的上升阶段;电力消费长期趋势的转变与这些国家经济结构的调整有着重要联系。     

基于多维特征分析的链式电网短期用电量预测研究

针对链式电网短期用电量既具有波动性,又具有非线性特征,导致用电量预测精度低的问题,进行了基于多维特征分析的链式电网短期用电量预测研究。结合组织映射电网与实际环境,借助多维特征分析方法从非平稳随机序列中提取趋势变量和周期变量。通过计算用户多维特征评价结果,能够构建用户多维度用电特征集合,依据该集合分类多维用电特征集,分别为电模式特征和辅助用户特征,通过这些特征能够获取时间序列关键性信息,构建多维特征分析下用电量预测模型,获取整体数据流转情况,完成链式电网短期用电量预测。通过实验研究结果可知,该方法预测效果较好,相比于以往方法能显著提高预测精准度。     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries

This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela using widely accepted time-series techniques for the period 1975–2006. The results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries. There is a unidirectional, short-run causality from electricity consumption to real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Ecuador. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries. In Venezuela, there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country. However, no causal relationships exist in Peru. The documented evidence from seven South American countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy.