吉林省水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度评价研究

【目的】水、能源、粮食是保障人类生存与福祉的重要物质基础,研究吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的耦合协调发展状况,以促进吉林省水、能源、粮食的可持续发展。【方法】以吉林省为研究区,建立水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统综合发展评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型定量评价2003—2020年W-E-F系统耦合协调状况,运用GM(1,1)预测2021—2030年耦合协调度。【结果】结果表明：吉林省W-E-F系统综合发展评价指数呈现波动上升趋势,由0.29增长至0.67,其中水资源系统发展指数对综合系统发展指数影响大;耦合度在0.88～0.99范围内,处于高水平耦合阶段,耦合协调关系由勉强失衡逐步发展到中级协调水平,表现出向好的趋势,预测2030年将达到高级协调,最后为促进吉林省W-E-F系统耦合协调发展提出了相关建议。【结论】耦合协调度模型能够有效定量评价吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的协调发展状况,为吉林省水-能源-粮食系统协调发展提供科学参考。     

黑龙江省水-能源-粮食系统动力学模拟

基于系统动力学理论,建立黑龙江省水-能源-粮食纽带关系仿真模型,对2010—2017年黑龙江省水资源的供需情况和能源、粮食的生产与消费进行模拟。通过设置和对比4种不同的发展方案,探究黑龙江省水-能源-粮食合理的配置方案。结果表明:黑龙江省的水资源安全形势较为严峻,在4种发展方案中,采取严格规划方案的正面效果最显著;强化发展方案下的能源消耗最明显,无论采取哪种发展方案,如果不对能源消费量加以控制,全省的能源安全可能无法保证;黑龙江省的粮食安全比较稳定,不易受外部条件的影响,保守节约方案下的粮食库存和粮食供需平衡比最大;仅采取一种发展方案可能无法实现水-能源-粮食系统的整体安全。     

中国水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全水平与全要素生产率时空耦合协调关系分析

为研究中国资源系统与经济系统耦合协调发展状况,通过构建水-能源-粮食纽带系统安全评价指标体系,应用TOPSIS模型、DEA-Malmquist指数和耦合协调度模型,对中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)(不包括港澳台及西藏)水-能源-粮食纽带系统安全水平与全要素生产率进行了测算,从时间和空间的角度分析了二者耦合协调关系。结果表明：中国水-能源-粮食纽带系统安全水平呈“双极分布”的空间格局,整体安全水平逐年提升,粮食子系统安全水平最高,水资源子系统安全水平最低;2005—2019年中国全要素生产率呈波动上升态势,水-能源-粮食纽带系统与全要素生产率耦合协调时空格局差异显著,耦合协调度呈现上升趋势,空间格局由南至北呈现出“高—低—高”的空间分布特征,时间维度上耦合协调呈现向高水平耦合阶段演进的趋势。     

基于水-能源-粮食纽带关系的用水量分解与测度

基于水-能源-粮食纽带关系视角,采用Kaya扩展恒等式和对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)对1998—2019年我国用水量变化的影响因素进行定量评估,重点探讨水-能源-粮食纽带效应、技术进步效应、经济规模效应和人口效应的贡献率及其变化趋势。研究表明：工农业生产用水量逐渐减小,而居民生活用水量逐渐增大;水-能源-粮食纽带效应是抑制用水量增长的首要因素,其中能源-粮食纽带效应贡献最大,但是逐年波动幅度较大,而水-能源纽带效应和水-粮食纽带效应波动较小且从2001年起表现为持续的负效应;虽然研究期内技术进步效应对用水量的抑制效果开始减弱,但是以工农业能源强度下降为主要表现形式的技术创新对用水量增长仍有很好的抑制效果;工农业经济规模扩张推动了用水量的增长,且近年来工业经济规模效应强于农业经济规模效应;人口效应的贡献较小,但是内部效应却表现出明显的两极分化现象,城镇化、人口规模和农村居民人均消费对用水量增长均具有促进作用,而逆城镇化和城镇居民人均消费则表现为抑制效应。     

区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究——以江苏省为例

随着我国淡水资源减少,能源需求增加,粮食供给的不确定性愈加严重。以江苏省为研究对象,通过构建水资源-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各子系统指标赋权,利用耦合协调模型进行对协调发展水平进行定量评价,并基于灰色GM(1.1)模型预测未来5年的耦合协调度。结果表明:江苏省2000-2015年W-E-F系统的综合评价指数整体上随时间呈上升趋势;耦合度基本保持高水平耦合;耦合协调度呈倒"U"型曲线,经历了初级协调、勉强协调、中级协调3个阶段,并在未来5年内向良好协调类过渡。但水资源与能源的发展水平仍滞后于粮食,故提高水与能源的利用效率,以促进区域的可持续发展。     

2000-2019年新疆水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展研究

水、能源和粮食是区域可持续发展的关键要素。以新疆维吾尔自治区为研究区,构建水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统综合评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型,分析新疆2000-2019年W-E-F系统耦合协调发展水平,并对2020-2031年的耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明：2000-2019年新疆W-E-F系统的综合评价指数由0.39增大至0.61,整体上呈现上升趋势;耦合协调度从0.59增大至0.77,3个子系统之间存在着密切的联系,目前整体表现为中级协调发展水平,并预测在2025年将过渡为高级协调发展阶段。水资源子系统仍是制约W-E-F系统协调发展的关键,农业用水占比过大,导致新疆总体上结构型缺水严重。未来应积极调整用水结构,提高水资源利用效率,优化粮食消费结构,以提升系统内部的协调性。     

基于水足迹与水-能源-粮食关联关系的提水灌溉系统种植结构优化

灌溉系统是农业生产与用水的关键载体,其水-能源-粮食关联关系的协调性对区域可持续发展有重要影响。相较于传统的灌溉水高效分配研究,水足迹理论明晰了农业生产水资源消耗总量及其利用类型。针对提水灌溉系统水资源、能源供需配置不紧密及其生态影响考虑不全面的问题,联合水足迹理论与水-能源-粮食关联关系,统筹社会、资源、生态和经济多维系统,构建了考虑水资源调配、农业生产用水及粮食生产转移全过程的提水灌溉区种植结构多目标优化评价模型。将该模型应用于涟水灌溉区,通过调整粮食作物(水稻、小麦、玉米和大豆)的种植结构,运用Topsis方法对比评价了现状和优化配置情况的相对贴近度。优化结果表明：在保障粮食安全的基本前提下,应增大玉米的播种面积,减少大豆的播种面积;相较于现状,优化后的年均粮食单方水经济净效益提升4.0%,作物碳足迹在农作物种植基线改变时呈现下降态势,且2018年优化后的碳足迹降低79.5 kg。优化方案的相对贴近度均大于现状,对促进提水灌溉系统资源高效利用和农业可持续性具有可靠的支撑作用。     

山东省水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调关系变化研究

山东省地处黄河下游,是粮食生产和能源消耗大省,水资源供需矛盾突出,为实现区域资源可持续发展,采用耦合协调评价模型,分析山东省2000—2020年水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展变化特征。结果表明：山东省水-能源-粮食系统整体发展趋势较为稳定,处于初级协调阶段;各子系统间离散程度相对较低、相互影响程度高,大多数年份水-能源-粮食系统处于初级协调阶段;干旱导致水资源短缺、能源供需矛盾等问题,对系统耦合协调程度影响较大,提升抗旱减灾和能源保障能力可促进山东省水-能源-粮食系统协调可持续发展。     

京津冀地区水-能源-粮食系统协同发展评价

为保障水-能源-粮食系统协同发展,以协同学理论为基础,构建协同度评价模型。从水资源系统、能源系统、粮食系统3个层面选取25个指标构建京津冀地区水-能源-粮食系统协同发展评价模型,对京津冀地区协同发展水平进行评价。结果表明,京津冀地区水-能源-粮食系统协同度整体上呈现上升趋势,但京津冀各地协同程度存在一定差异;2011—2016年京津冀协同度变化无规律,处于较低的水平,2017—2020年协同度呈明显上升趋势。     

水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调及驱动力分析

为加深对我国水资源、能源、粮食、生态系统协同演变趋势的认识,构建水资源-能源-粮食-生态多维系统指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型对我国2005—2020年水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度进行评价,并采用多因素归因分析法进行驱动力分析。结果表明：我国水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度从2005年的0.55增长到2020年的0.84,各地区耦合协调度从勉强协调发展水平过渡到中级协调发展水平,各子系统对耦合协调度上升的驱动分别经历了由粮食子系统到生态子系统再到水资源子系统主导的过程;能源子系统的贡献率虽然比较小,但是未来可能是各地区提升水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统多维系统协调发展水平的突破口。     

Financial challenges of the nexus: pathways for investment in water,energy and agriculture in the Arab world

The Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus is a development challenge in the Arab world, particularly in the ‘core nexus countries’ with low to mid-incomes in which limited water endowments permit agricultural production, such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Algeria, Sudan and Jordan. The WEF nexus is often conceptualized in mere technocratic terms, yet politics matter in the implementation of projects that address it. Internalizing hydrological externalities or leaving them as they are and financing them as a public good requires states whose capacities have been reduced as a result of neoliberal reform. The article explores five different pathways of how Arab countries could finance green growth projects ranging from regional financial markets to concessionary loans by funds from oil rich Gulf countries.     

Bridging Science and Policy in Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Using the Q-Nexus Model for Informing Policy Making

Water, energy and food (WEF) systems are highly interconnected and they directly and indirectly affect one another. Science based tools that quantify the direct and indirect interconnections between water, energy and food systems are essential for informing effective WEF policy-making. The Q-Nexus Model is a mathematically-based quantitative WEF nexus assessment tool that serves as platform to quantify, simulate and optimize water, energy and food as interconnected systems of resources. This paper presents a generic scenario-based framework of using Q-Nexus Model for informing about the nexus effects that need to be reflected in the WEF planning and policy-making settings. Firstly, the technical features of the Q-Nexus Model and its capability to evaluate the direct and indirect quantitative effects are introduced. Secondly, the use of the Q-Nexus Model to quantify and simulate numerous key challenges and policy options are then presented. At the practical level, a numerical experiment is presented, and results are discussed. Lastly, the conclusions and further developments are presented.     

The water–energy–food (WEF) security nexus: the policy perspective of Bangladesh

This paper provides a review of the emerging literature on the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus and then analyses the nexus in the context of Bangladesh. Results suggest that the WEF nexus is not yet recognized in the policy documents of Bangladesh, while conflicts over these resources are growing. In order to reduce this contestation, ‘policy integration’ is recommended for implementing key policies in the WEF nexus.     

Incorporating Social System into Water-Food-Energy Nexus

The current study introduces a conceptual socio-hydrological-based framework for the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. The proposed conceptual framework aims to investigate how farmers' dynamic agricultural activities under different socio-economic conditions affect the WEF systems. The WEF nexus model has been integrated with an Agent-Based Model, reflecting the farmers’ agricultural activities. Furthermore, the agent-based model benefits from Association Rule Mining to define farmer agents’ agricultural decision-making in various conditions. The processes within the WEF nexus are simultaneously physical, socio-economic, ecological, and political. Indeed, there are interrelated interactions among the mentioned processes in ways that have not yet been properly delineated and mapped. Thus, to obtain sustainable outcomes, the current study investigates trade-offs among natural resources and social systems in the WEF nexus approach. The proposed socio-hydrological WEF nexus framework may provide more in-depth future insights for policy-makers through capturing bidirectional feedbacks among farmers and WEF systems. In other words, the proposed framework can help policymakers to capture the dynamic impacts of agricultural activities by farmers on the WEF nexus, which may vary due to different socio-economic conditions.

     

Pareto Optimization of Water Resources Using the Nexus Approach

The continuously growing population in combination with the escalating urbanization and economic growth increase the pressure on water, energy and food resources of our planet. This entails an urgent need for proper water resources management within the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus concept. The WEF nexus considers water, energy and food as three continuously interconnected sectors, whose complex interactions lead to an increased number of trade-offs and potential conflicts. Computational modeling can be used to quantify these interactions, reduce trade-offs and promote synergies. We investigate the water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin, one of the two main sources of the Nile, using the Hydronomeas tool. Hydronomeas is based on the parameterization-simulation-optimization method; optimization is implemented in two levels, using a holistic approach and multiple criteria. We assign various targets, constraints and priorities to the UBNR system of reservoirs, hydropower plants and irrigation projects and derive a Pareto front that contains alternative, optimal solutions, for which improvement of one objective can be achieved only at the expense of another. By visualizing the trade-offs between the conflicting objectives of hydropower and irrigation, we aim to help decision makers understand changes due to different management policies and thus, achieve greater efficiency in water resources management in the Nile region.     

Water resources management and Integrated Water Resources Management implementation in Malawi: Status and implications for lake basin management

Many countries, including Malawi, are implementing integrated approaches for the development, management and use of water and other natural resources. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is, arguably, one approach considered helpful in addressing water issues effectively and sustainably. This study assesses the implementation of IWRM in Malawi to the present time, in relation to the five priority areas the country's Integrated Water Resources Management/Water Efficiency (IWRM/WE) Plan (2008–2012) sought to address, as well as the potential benefits of infusing Integrated Lake Basin Management (ILBM) in this approach. Document reviews, key informant interviews, questionnaire surveys and site visits were the employed methods in this analysis. Considering the significant importance of lakes in the country, this study, through application of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats framework, provides insight on how lake basin management issues can best be incorporated within the existing IWRM‐based framework to promote the management and utilization of lakes for sustainable use. While acknowledging the relevance of a holistic approach, the study highlights the importance for the country to ensure that its development agenda is not negatively affected in the course of implementing IWRM.     

The Social Sustainable Aquifer Yield: An Indicator for the Analysis and Assessment of the Integrated Aquifers Management

Integrated Aquifers Management (IAM) demands innovative tools and methods that are able to consider as much perspectives as possible. This research is aimed to design, apply and provide an indicator named Social Sustainable Aquifer Yield (SSAY), expressed in units of time that includes pure hydrological variables as well as social ones. The indicator is defined as the relation between the Residence Time, which is the relation between aquifer Storage (S) and Recharge (R) (S/R), and the relation between the aquifer Pumping (P) and the new variable named Aquifer Social Yield (ASY). The whole indicator is defined by this formula: (S/R)/(P/ASY). The assessment of the residence time is essential in aquifers with at least one of the following features: i) high hydraulic diffusivity, and ii) small volume of reserves. Finally, the variable ASY is defined as the average perception from the stakeholders about the maximum acceptable aquifer exploitation. This indicator has been successfully applied in the aquifers located in southern Jaen province (South Spain) belonging to the Water System SE4-Jaén Water Supply. The results probe the high utility of the indicator, especially in regards to the public participation processes.     

To what end? Drip irrigation and the water–energy–food nexus in Morocco

This article draws on three case studies of drip irrigation adoption in Morocco to consider the water–energy–food nexus concept from a bottom-up perspective. Findings indicate that small farmers' adoption of drip irrigation is conditional, that water and energy efficiency does not necessarily reduce overall consumption, and that adoption of drip irrigation (and policies supporting it) can create winners and losers. The article concludes that, although the water–energy–food WEF nexus concept may offer useful insights, its use in policy formulation should be tempered with caution. Technical options that appear beneficial at the conceptual level can have unintended consequences in practice, and policies focused on issues of scarcity and efficiency may exacerbate other dimensions of poverty and inequality.     

Sefficiency (sustainable efficiency) of water–energy–food entangled systems

Water–energy–food (WEF) entanglement is intensifying and technology is being presented as a crucial solution. But time and again the implemented alternative manifests results contrary to the objectives of design or management. To advance water security, transparent and complete input–output methodologies are needed. Here, a Sefficiency (sustainable efficiency) framework is used to reason through systemic analyses of options for WEF schemes by using water quantity within a comprehensive water balance, and quality and benefits in a multilevel water-use system. An energy regime (cost and normalized functions) and Sefficiency compute performance of four cases that show flaws both conceptually and practically in current policy and scientific tendencies.     

WEF/WERF study of BNR plants achieving very low N and P limits: evaluation of technology performance and process reliability

The Water Environment Research Foundation (WERF) funded a two-year comprehensive study of nutrient removal plants designed and operated to meet very low effluent total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. WERF worked with the Water Environment Federation (WEF) to solicit participation of volunteers and provide a forum for information exchange at workshops at its annual conferences. Both existing and new technologies are being adapted to meet requirements that are as low as 3.0 mg/L TN and 0.1 mg/L TP, and there is a need to define their capabilities and reliabilities in the real world situation of wastewater treatment plants. A concern over very low daily permits for ammonia caused the work to be extended to include nitrification reliability. This effort focused on maximizing what can be learned from existing technologies in order to provide a database that will inform key decision makers about proper choices for both technologies and rationale bases for statistical permit writing. To this end, managers of 22 plants, 10 achieving low effluent TP, nine achieving low effluent TN, and three achieving low effluent NH(3)-N, provided three years of operational data that were analyzed using a consistent statistical approach. Technology Performance Statistics (TPSs) were developed as three separate values representing the ideal, median, and reliably achievable performance. Technological conclusions can be drawn from the study in terms of what can be learned by comparing the different nutrient removal and nitrification processes employed at these 22 plants.