Karst Spring Discharges Analysis in Relation to Drought Periods,Using the SPI

Based on the long hydrological time series, the correlation between karst spring discharge series and rainfall has been analysed, using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis has been focused on the drought periods. Data come from a large karst system (Campania, Southern Italy), in an area characterised by a distribution of the precipitation prevalently during autumn-winter period. Insufficient recharge due to poor rainfall results in flat spring hydrographs (with no peak during spring season) that indicate a continuously decreasing discharge. Specifically, it has been found that 12 months cumulative rainfall, expressed by SPI₁₂, and spring discharge have similar trend. When SPI₁₂ will be equal or less that − 1, springs reduce the discharge, and a flat spring hydrograph will be produced when SPI reaches value less than − 1.5. In these cases, the prolonged shortage of accumulated rainfall causes a reduction in spring discharge also during the following year as well, pointing out a memory effect of the karst aquifer, and more complex rainfall–discharge relationship is observed.     

Comparability Analyses of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">SPI</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">RDI</Emphasis> Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones

Comparability analyses are performed to investigate similarities/differences of the standard precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), respectively, utilizing precipitation and ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (ET ₀). Data are from stations with different climatic conditions in Iran. Drought characteristics of the 3-month, 6-month and annual SPI and RDI time series are developed and Markov chain order dependencies are investigated by the Log-likelihood, AIC and BIC tests. Steady state probabilities and Markov chain characteristics, i.e., expected residence time in different drought classes and time to reach “Near Normal” class are investigated. According to results, both indices exhibit an overall similar behaviour; particularly, they follow the first order Markov chain dependency. However, climatic variability may produce some differences. In several cases, the “Extremely Dry” class has received a more critical value by RDI. Furthermore, the expected residence time of “Near Normal” class and expected time to reach “Near Normal” class are quite different in a number of cases. The results show that the RDI by utilizing the ET ₀ can be very sensitive to climatic variability. This is rather important, since if the drought analyses are for agricultural applications, utilization of the RDI would seem to serve a better purpose.     

Climate Variability Influences on Hydrological Responses of a Large Himalayan Basin

The hydrological cycle, a fundamental component of climate is likely to be altered in important ways due to climate change. In this study, the historical daily runoff has been simulated for the Chenab River basin up to Salal gauging site using a simple conceptual snowmelt model (SNOWMOD). The model has been used to study the impact of plausible hypothetical scenarios of temperature and rainfall on the melt characteristics and daily runoff of the Chenab River basin. The average value of increase in snowmelt runoff for T + 1°C, T + 2°C and T + 3°C scenarios are obtained to be 10, 28 and 43%, respectively. Whereas, the average value of increase in total streamflow runoff for T + 1°C, T + 2°C and T + 3°C are obtained to be 7, 19 and 28%, respectively. Changes in rainfall by −10 and + 10% vary the average annual snowmelt runoff over the T + 2°C scenario by −1% and + 1% only. The result shows that melt is much more sensitive to increase in temperature than to rainfall.     

基于SPI和SPEI的淮河中上游流域气象干旱时空分布特征对比研究

基于淮河流域1960-2017年逐月降水、气温资料,采用SPI、SPEI等干旱指数和线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等数学统计方法对年和四季气象干旱的趋势性、周期性及干旱频次进行时空分布特征的对比研究。结果表明:流域年、夏冬两季两种干旱指数呈微弱增加趋势,SPEI较SPI上升幅度略大,春秋两季均呈微弱减少趋势,SPEI较SPI下降幅度略大;研究时段内同一区域的两种干旱指数反映的干湿变化周期性基本一致;年尺度淮河以北SPEI显示中旱频次较多而SPI显示轻旱频次较多,其他时间尺度南北区域接近一致;两种干旱指数的空间变化趋势除夏季较为一致外,年、春秋两季在同一区域上SPEI显示的干旱化趋势较SPI略强,冬季SPI显示绝大部分区域呈湿润化趋势而SPEI呈干旱化趋势;两种指数在空间分布上存在一定程度的差异性,四季SPEI显示的干旱频次普遍比SPI统计的干旱频次高。研究结果对于干旱客观性评估和水旱灾害防治管理具有重要参考价值。     

GLUE Based Assessment on the Overall Predictions of a MIKE SHE Application

The generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach was applied to assess the performance of a distributed catchment model and to estimate prediction limits after conditioning based on observed catchment-wide streamflow. Prediction limits were derived not only for daily streamflow but also for piezometric levels and for extreme events. The latter analysis was carried out considering independent partial duration time series (PDS) obtained from the observed daily streamflow hydrograph. Important data uncertainties were identified. For streamflow the stage-discharge data analysis led to estimate an average data uncertainty of about 3 m³ s^− 1. For piezometric levels, data errors were estimated to be in the order of 5 m in average and 10 m at most. The GLUE analysis showed that most of the inspected parameters are insensitive to model performance, except the horizontal and vertical components of the hydraulic conductivity of one of the geological layers that have the most influence on the streamflow model performance in the application catchment. The study revealed a considerable uncertainty attached to the simulation of both high flows and low flows (i.e., in average terms 5 m³ s^− 1 before the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits). Similarly, wide prediction intervals were obtained for the piezometric levels in relevant wells, in the order of 3.3 and 1.5 m before and after the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits, respectively. Consequently, the results suggest that, in average terms, the model of the catchment predicts overall outputs within the limitations of the errors in the input variables.     

不同干旱指数在新疆哈巴河地区旱情评价中的应用研究

利用新疆哈巴河地区1962-2014年间的气象资料,比较分析多时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)在该地区的适用性,并基于两种干旱指数计算结果分析哈巴河地区53a间的干旱演变特征。结果表明:各时间尺度(年、季、月)下的SPI指数与SPEI指数呈现显著性相关;单月小尺度下,SPEI指数评价干旱事件等级较实际情况要严重,SPI指数在实际使用中更具优势;12月长时间尺度下,SPI指数和SPEI指数均体现出巴河地区干旱逐步减轻的趋势,在气候变暖大背景下考虑气温变化的SPEI指数较SPI指数更符合当地实际;各季节尺度下,SPI和SPEI指数发生各干旱等级事件的比例相差不大,实际使用中建议春冬季使用SPI指数,夏秋季使用SPEI指数或修正过的SPI指数,同时需要重点关注夏秋季干旱。     

Streamflow Drought Severity Analysis of Betwa River System (India)

Streamflow appraisal in time and space particularly in semi arid and dry sub humid regions has vital importance in the formulation of round the year plan of water uses comprising domestic & industrial water supply, irrigation scheduling, reservoir operation, in-stream flow maintenance etc. Drought severity analysis including the estimation of flow availability, drought duration, and deficit volume etc. was carried out using the 20–42 years (1960–2001) 10-daily streamflow data of five sites on the Betwa River system and. independent streamflow drought events were described by pooling the data, and severity of an independent drought event classified using a new drought severity index (DSIe) defined as a function of (1) the ratio of deficit flow volume to corresponding volume at the truncation level and (2) the ratio of duration of deficit flow to the maximum possible duration of the independent streamflow drought event. The study found that the upper reaches of river course were more prone to severe droughts than were the lower reaches. The drought events starting during August−November were more likely to be severe drought events than those in the other months.     

Environmental Drivers of Streamflow Change in the Upper Rio Grande

The purpose of this study was to assess changes in streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin, as it exits the San Luis Valley (SLV) at the Lobatos gauge station, in relation to changes in local environmental drivers. Irrigation-dependent agriculture accounts for more than 85% of surface and ground water withdrawals in the SLV. Inflows of the Rio Grande and the Conejos and Los Pi?os rivers were aggregated into a single inflow into the SLV. Streamflow data were taken from gauges above all major diversions. Results of the analysis indicated annual streamflow at Lobatos declined by 400 hm³ after 1924, coinciding with increases in surface water extractions. Additional reductions of about 50 hm³ in annual streamflow, not accounted for by inflow reductions during the period 1925–1964, coincided with increases in groundwater extractions. In contrast, an increase of 12.5 hm³ in annual streamflow occurred during 1965–2007. The increases coincided with several changes, but were primarily related to extreme peak flow years during the period 1985–1987 and increased water deliveries in compliance with the Rio Grande Compact.     

Predicting Drought Magnitudes: A Parsimonious Model for Canadian Hydrological Droughts

A multiplicative relationship, drought magnitude (M) = drought intensity (I) × drought duration or length (L) is used as a basis for predicting the largest expected value of hydrological drought magnitude, E(M _T ) over a period of T-year (or month). The prediction of E(M _T ) is carried out in terms of the SHI (standardized hydrological index, tantamount to standard normal variate) sequences of the annual and monthly streamflow time series. The probability distribution function (pdf) of I (drought intensity) was assumed to follow a truncated normal. The drought length (L _c ) was taken as some characteristic duration of the drought period, which is expressible as a linear combination of the expected longest (extreme) duration, E(L _T ) and the mean duration, L _m of droughts and is estimated involving a parameter ø (range 0 to 1). The drought magnitude (deficit-sum, M) has been assumed to follow a gamma pdf, in view of the observed behavior of M. The model M = I × L has been invoked via two approximations, viz. Type-1 involves only mean of I and Type-2 involves both mean and variance of I through the theorem of extremes of random numbers of random variables. The E(L _T ) were obtained using the Markov chain (MC) model of an appropriate order, which turned out to be zero order Markov chain (MC-0) at the annual time scale. At the monthly time scale, the E(L _T ) was best represented by MC-0 for SHI sequences with low value of lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ?<?0.3) and first order Markov chain (MC-1) for SHI sequences with ρ?>?0.3. At low cutoff levels (q?≤?0.2), the trivial relationship E(M _T ) = E(I) × E(L _T ) i.e. without considerations of the extreme number theorem and the pdf of M yielded satisfactory results.     

Soil Erosion Assessment in a Hilly Catchment of North Eastern India Using USLE, GIS and Remote Sensing

In the present study, soil erosion assessment of Dikrong river basin of Arunachal Pradesh (India) was carried out. The river basin was divided into 200 × 200 m grid cells. The Arc Info 7.2 GIS software and RS (ERDAS IMAGINE 8.4 image processing software) provided spatial input data and the USLE was used to predict the spatial distribution of the average annual soil loss on grid basis. The average rainfall erositivity factor (R) for Dikrong river basin was found to be 1,894.6 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ year⁻¹. The soil erodibility factor (K) with a magnitude of 0.055 t ha h ha⁻¹ MJ⁻¹ mm⁻¹ is the highest, with 0.039 t ha h ha⁻¹ MJ⁻¹ mm⁻¹ is the least for the watershed. The highest and lowest value of slope length factor (LS) is 53.5 and 5.39 respectively for the watershed. The highest and lowest values of crop management factor (C) were found out to be 0.004 and 1.0 respectively for the watershed. The highest and lowest value of conservation factor (P) were found to be 1 and 0.28 respectively for the watershed. The average annual soil loss of the Dikrong river basin is 51 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. About 25.61% of the watershed area is found out to be under slight erosion class. Areas covered by moderate, high, very high, severe and very severe erosion potential zones are 26.51%, 17.87%, 13.74%, 2.39% and 13.88% respectively. Therefore, these areas need immediate attention from soil conservation point of view.     

水文干旱与气象干旱临界转变条件的判定及响应关系

水文干旱与气象干旱的响应关系对于建立健全干旱监测预报系统具有重要意义。基于区域水文干旱指数(SHI)与标准化降水指数(SPI),结合游程理论和非线性关系模型分析喀什河流域水文干旱与气象干旱的特征、响应关系及驱动因素。结果表明:水文干旱的年平均干旱历时和干旱烈度大于气象干旱,且随着SPI和SHI时间尺度的增加,识别出的干旱历时和干旱烈度也有所增加。基于三参数(log 3 P1)对数函数(Logarithm)模型可以更好地表征两者的响应关系。在3个月尺度下,气象干旱历时至少为1. 10个月且干旱的烈度至少为0. 83时,将诱发水文干旱;在6个月尺度下,气象干旱历时至少为1. 60个月且干旱的烈度至少为0. 91时,易发生水文干旱。     

A Simplified Model for Predicting Drought Magnitudes: a Case of Streamflow Droughts in Canadian Prairies

The model for prediction of drought magnitudes is based on the multiplicative relationship: drought magnitude (M) = drought intensity (I) × drought duration (L), where I, L, and M are presumed to obey respectively the truncated normal probability distribution function (pdf), the geometric pdf, and the normal pdf. The multiplicative relationship is applied in the standardized domain of the streamflows, named as SHI (standardized hydrological index) sequences, which are treated equivalent to standard normal variates. The expected drought magnitude E(M _T ), i.e. the largest value of M over a sampling period of T-time units (T-year, T-month, and T-week) is predicted for hydrological droughts using streamflow data from Canadian prairies. By suitably amalgamating E(L _T ) with mean and variance of I in the extreme number theorem based relationship, the E(M _T ) is evaluated. Using Markov chain (MC), the E(L _T ) is estimated involving the geometric pdf of L. The Markov chains up to order one (MC-1) were found to be adequate in the proposed model for the annual to weekly time scales. For a given level of drought probability (q) and a sampling period T-time units; the evaluation of E(M _T ) requires only 3 parameters viz. lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ ₁ ), first order conditional probability (q _q , present instant being a drought given past instant was a drought) in SHI sequences and a parameter ø (value 0 to 1), which were estimated from historical data of streamflows. A major strength of the proposed model lies in the use of simple and widely familiar normal and geometric pdfs as its basic building blocks for the estimation of drought magnitudes.     

PCJ River Basins’ Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of São Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tietê. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m³ person^− 1 year^− 1 in 2004 to 734 m³ person^− 1 year^− 1 by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.     

基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数构建与应用

干旱指数是研究干旱的重要工具,构建综合干旱指数是目前干旱监测、风险评估的前沿和趋势。本文基于阿基米德Copula函数,联合降雨(气象)、径流(水文)两种要素,构建了一种能够综合表征气象干旱和水文干旱的新型综合干旱指数MSDI_p,并用其表征渭河流域的干旱演变特征,且进一步对其背后的驱动力进行了探究。结果表明:(1)MSDI_p指数既能像标准化降水指数(SPI)一样敏锐地捕捉干旱的发生,也能像标准化径流指数(SRI)一样很好地刻画干旱的持续时间和结束,同时具备气象和水文两种干旱指数表征不同类型干旱的优势,能综合表征干旱演变特征;(2)受气候变化和人类活动影响,渭河流域过去50余年综合干旱呈显著增强趋势;(3)渭河流域综合干旱指数序列存在变异点(1994年),且未来流域干旱情势有加剧趋势;(4)太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子等对渭河流域综合干旱的发生有较大影响,其中太阳黑子活动的影响最强。且除直接影响外,太阳黑子还能通过影响大气环流异常因子进而对综合干旱的发生造成间接影响。     

Observations on Vertical Variability in Groundwater Quality: Implications for Aquifer Management

This work demonstrates significant vertical variability in the chemical composition of groundwater (Cl⁻ from 150 to 550 mg/L, NO₃^-{\rm{NO}}_{3}^{-} from 3 to 70 mg/L, trichloroethene from 350 to 55,000 μg/L and Cr_Total from 3 to 2,900 μg/L) along a 130 m thick vertical section passing through two subaquifers of the Costal Plain aquifer of Israel. Water samples were obtained by multilevel sampler under natural gradient flow conditions from a monitoring well which penetrates the entire aquifer. The vertical chemical variability detected at a single point in time in this well was found to be similar to the range of concentrations detected for Cl⁻ in pumping wells located over an area of about 1,000 km² in the same aquifer. Similarly, vertical variations in NO₃^-{\rm{NO}}_{3}^{-} concentration in the single monitoring well represent more than 50% of the total variation in nitrate levels in pumping wells sampled across the entire aquifer. These results graphically illustrate that data from pumping wells, which extract unknown mixtures of groundwater from different depths, cannot provide adequate information about groundwater quality for management purposes.     

Diagnosing anomalous characteristics of atmospheric water cycle structure during seasonal-scale drought events: A case study in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

Anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure are highly significant to the mechanisms of seasonal-scale meteorological droughts. They also play an important role in the identification of indicative predictors of droughts. To better understand the causes of seasonal meteorological droughts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure at different drought stages were determined using standardized anomalies. The results showed that the total column water vapor (TCWV) was anomalously low during drought occurrence periods. In contrast, there were no anomalous signals at the drought persistence and recovery stages in the MLRYR. Moreover, there was no significant temporal correlation between the TCWV anomaly and seasonal-scale drought index (the 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI₃)). During drought events, water vapor that mainly originated from the Bay of Bengal was transported southwest of the MLRYR. Meanwhile, the anomalous signal of water vapor transport was negative at the drought appearance stage. At the drought persistence stage, the negative anomalous signal was the most significant. Water vapor flux divergence in the MLRYR showed significant positive anomalous signals during drought events, and the signal intensity shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend at different drought stages. In addition, a significant positive correlation existed between the anomaly of water vapor flux divergence and regional SPI₃. Overall, water vapor flux divergence is more predictive of droughts in the MLRYR.     

Impact of Treated Wastewater Reuse on Agriculture and Aquifer Recharge in a Coastal Area: Korba Case Study

Treated wastewater (TWW) reuse has increasingly been integrated in the planning and development of water resources in Tunisia. The present study aimed the evaluation of the environmental and health impact that would have the reuse of TWW for crops direct irrigation or for the recharge of the local aquifer in Korba (Tunisia). For this purpose water analyses were carried on the TWW intended for the aquifer recharge and on underground water of this area. As for underground water before recharge, no contamination by organic matter or heavy metals is shown but high salinity, nitrate, potassium and chloride concentrations are detected. The bacteriological analyses show the occurrence of faecal streptococcus, thermo-tolerant coliforms, total coliforms and E coli, but absence of salmonella. These results indicate that this water is not suitable for irrigation worse still for drinking purpose. The monitoring of TWW pollutants has demonstrated that oxygen demands (COD and BOD) do not exceed the Tunisian standards for TWW used in agriculture (NT 106.03) except for August when samples reach high values (COD = 139 mg O₂ L^− 1, BOD = 34). It is also the case for temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), salinity and pH. Heavy metal concentrations are under the detection limit. The determination of nutrients shows relatively low concentrations of nitrates, nitrites and orthophosphate (the maxima in mg L^− 1 are respectively 6.6, 5.6 and 0.92) whereas the potassium levels are high (up to 48.8 mg L^− 1) and the ammonia levels very high, reaching 60.6 mg L^− 1. As for bacteriological pollution, while no salmonella and intestinal nematods are detected, high concentrations of total coliforms, thermo-tolerant coliforms, faecal streptococci and E. coli are analysed. Consequently, the better use of TWW in this region would be the use of infiltration basins for the recharge of the deteriorated aquifer by TWW. It would give the opportunity to better the quality of the TWW reaching the groundwater by an additional treatment for bacteriological and suspended solid (TSS) contaminants while being an alternative water for the aquifer recharge and a coastal barrier against seawater intrusion.     

Trend Analysis of Streamflow Drought Events in Nebraska

A streamflow drought event, defined by applying the threshold level approach on streamflow time series, is composed of three parameters: duration, severity and magnitude. This study reveals statistical characteristics on streamflow drought event parameters and detects spatial and temporal trends in the streamflow drought in terms of frequency, duration and severity in Nebraska. The studies are conducted on three time periods: 1970–2001 (60 stations), 1950–2001 (43 stations), and 1932–2001 (9 stations). The statistical tests performed on the drought event parameters include correlation between event parameters tests, Hurst coefficients and lag-one coefficients, and trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) tests. The analysis shows that there is no uniform trend on the streamflow drought in the whole state. However, some trends are evident for specific regions. Specifically, it is most likely that droughts in the Republican watershed have become more intense; whereas the drought has become slightly alleviated in the Missouri and nearby watersheds.     

Impact of Flood Spreading on Infiltration Rate and Soil Properties in an Arid Environment

Flood spreading (FS) is one of the suitable methods for flood management and water harvesting that increases the groundwater recharge, makes soil more fertile and increases nutrients in soil. It is also a method for reusing sediment, which is usually wasted. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of flood spreading on physical and chemical soil properties (soil texture, infiltration rate, pH, EC, Na, P, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, HCO₃, and SO₄). It is examined that the soil properties change in the flood spreading projection area (FSP). The physico-chemical properties of soil and infiltration rate were measured in different soil depths at both flood spreading and control area. For the 20 cm of top soil, the amount of clay increased after the flood spreading implementation especially in the first and second dikes. Increasing clay was accompanied by decreasing soil infiltration and sand percentage. The mean differences of the clay, sand and infiltration rate between FSP and the control area were statistically significant (P < 0.01). A significant difference was not observed in 20–30 cm of the depth. Soil pH, Mg, HCO₃, Cl and SO₄ in different soil layers did not show any significant difference between the control and FSP. Soil EC in 0–20 cm depth of FSP and control area was showed a significant difference (P < 0.05) but no significant differences were found in deeper layers (P < 0.05). K, Na and Ca were remarkably different between 0 and 10 cm depths (P < 0.05) whereas no significant differences were found in deeper layers (P < 0.05). Comparison of the physico-chemical properties and infiltration rates between the dikes in the FSP shows that there are the significant differences between the medians of dike 1 with dikes 2, 3, 4 and 5, but the differences were not observed between dikes 3, 4 and 5. Our results show that the flood spreading operation can be influenced by the area that is under this operation. This study allowed us to investigate the mechanisms that regulate the infiltration rate and chemical soil properties throughout a seasonally flooded area.     

Monitoring and Assessment of Surface Water Abstractions for Pasture Irrigation from Landsat Imagery: Bega–Bemboka River,NSW, Australia

Irrigation of pasture forms the greatest single use of irrigation water in Australia yet there has been little monitoring of its spatial extent and water demands across southeast Australian coastal catchments where irrigated dairy farming forms an important rural livelihood. This paper provides an analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in the extent of irrigated pasture in the Bega–Bemboka catchment on the south coast of New South Wales from Landsat imagery, and establishes quantile regression relationships between metered monthly irrigation abstraction volumes, evaporation and rainfall. Over the metering period (2000–2007), annual water usage averages 4.8 ML ha^− 1 year^− 1, with January being the month of highest demand with an annualised usage of 10.4 ML ha^− 1 year^− 1. Analysis of Landsat imagery indicates that the spatial extent of irrigated pasture across the catchment has increased from 1266 ha in 1983 to 1842 ha by 2002, together with amalgamation of smaller holdings along less reliable streams into larger parcels along the trunk stream. Quantile regressions to estimate monthly mean and maximum abstraction volumes from monthly evaporation and rainfall data indicate that abstraction volumes are more closely correlated with evaporation. When combined with Landsat analyses of the spatial extent of irrigated areas, such relationships enable estimation of catchment-scale hydrological effects of irrigation abstractions that in turn can help guide regional-scale assessments of the ecological effects and sustainability of spatially and temporally changing irrigation abstraction volumes.