Short-term forecasting of wind speed and related electrical power

Wind speed and the related electrical power of wind turbines are forecasted. The work is focused on the operation of power systems with integrated wind parks. Artificial neural networks models are proposed for forecasting average values of the following 10 min or 1 h. Input quantities for the prediction are wind speeds and their derivatives. Also, spatial correlation of wind speeds and its use for forecasting, are investigated. The methods are tested using data collected over seven years at six different sites on islands of the South and Central Aegean Sea in Greece.     

Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment

In this paper, we investigate the representation of wind power forecasting (WPF) uncertainty in the unit commitment (UC) problem. While deterministic approaches use a point forecast of wind power output, WPF uncertainty in the stochastic UC alternative is captured by a number of scenarios that include cross-temporal dependency. A comparison among a diversity of UC strategies (based on a set of realistic experiments) is presented. The results indicate that representing WPF uncertainty with wind power scenarios that rely on stochastic UC has advantages over deterministic approaches that mimic the classical models. Moreover, the stochastic model provides a rational and adaptive way to provide adequate spinning reserves at every hour, as opposed to increasing reserves to predefined, fixed margins that cannot account either for the system’s costs or its assumed risks.     

Effect of direction on wind speed estimation in complex terrain using neural networks

A method of estimating the annual average wind speed at a selected site using neural networks is presented. The method proposed uses only a few measurements taken at the selected site in a short time period and data collected at nearby fixed stations.The neural network used in this study is a multilayer perceptron with one hidden layer of 15 neurons, trained by the Bayesian regularization algorithm. The number of inputs that must be used in the neural network was analyzed in detail, and results suggest that only wind speed and direction data for a single station are required. In sites of complex terrain, direction is a very important input that can cause a decrease of 23% in root mean square (RMS).The results obtained by simulating the annual average wind speed at the selected site based on data from nearby stations are satisfactory, with errors below 2%.     

Performance assessment of electric power generations using an adaptive neural network algorithm

Efficiency frontier analysis has been an important approach of evaluating firms’ performance in private and public sectors. There have been many efficiency frontier analysis methods reported in the literature. However, the assumptions made for each of these methods are restrictive. Each of these methodologies has its strength as well as major limitations. This study proposes a non-parametric efficiency frontier analysis method based on the adaptive neural network technique for measuring efficiency as a complementary tool for the common techniques of the efficiency studies in the previous studies. The proposed computational method is able to find a stochastic frontier based on a set of input–output observational data and do not require explicit assumptions about the function structure of the stochastic frontier. In this algorithm, for calculating the efficiency scores, a similar approach to econometric methods has been used. Moreover, the effect of the return to scale of decision-making units (DMUs) on its efficiency is included and the unit used for the correction is selected by notice of its scale (under constant return to scale assumption). An example using real data is presented for illustrative purposes. In the application to the power generation sector of Iran, we find that the neural network provide more robust results and identifies more efficient units than the conventional methods since better performance patterns are explored. Moreover, principle component analysis (PCA) is used to verify the findings of the proposed algorithm.     

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural network

Power forecasting is an important factor for planning the operations of photovoltaic (PV) system. This paper presents an advanced statistical method for solar power forecasting based on artificial intelligence techniques. The method requires as input past power measurements and meteorological forecasts of solar irradiance, relative humidity and temperature at the site of the photovoltaic power system. A self-organized map (SOM) is trained to classify the local weather type of 24 h ahead provided by the online meteorological services. A unique feature of the method is that following a preliminary weather type classification, the neural networks can be well trained to improve the forecast accuracy. The proposed method is suitable for operational planning of transmission system operator, i.e. forecasting horizon of 24 h ahead and for PV power system operators trading in electricity markets. Application of the forecasting method on the power production of an actual PV power system shows the validity of the method.     

Hybrid boosting algorithms and artificial neural network for wind speed prediction

Energy sources are an important foundation for national economic growth. The future of energy sources depend on the energy controls. The reserves of fossil energy have declined significantly, and environmental pollution has increased dramatically due to excessive fossil fuel consumption. At this point, wind energy can be used as one of the key source of renewable energy. It has a remarkable importance among the low-carbon energy technologies. The primary aim of wind energy production is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels that affect environment adversely. Therefore, wind energy is analyzed to develop new energy resources. The main issue related to evaluation of the wind energy potential is wind speed prediction. Due to the high volatile and irregular nature of wind speed, wind speed prediction is difficult. To cope with complex data structure, this study presents the development of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) within particle swarm optimization (PSO) parameter optimization for hourly wind speed prediction. To compare the proposed hybrid methods, various performance measures, the Pearson's test, and the Taylor diagram are used. The results showed that proposed hybrid methods provide reasonable prediction results for wind speed prediction.     

The impact of European balancing rules on wind power economics and on short-term bidding strategies

Wind power represents a significant percentage of the European generation mix and this will increase to fulfill the renewable energy targets. Different balancing rules are applied to wind power among the countries; for instance, to what extent wind power producers (WPPs) are responsible for the energy imbalances and how those imbalances are penalized. This paper discusses those different rules and evaluates their effects on WPP bidding strategies. To do so, a quantitative analysis is presented for an offshore wind farm, considering the differences in the balancing rules and prices of Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. The quantitative approach consists of a stochastic optimization model that maximizes the profits of a WPP by trading in different markets (day-ahead and intraday) and computes the final energy delivered. The model considers uncertainties of most important parameters such as wind energy forecasts and prices at different time frames. The results show that the imbalance pricing design and the allocation of balance responsibility significantly affect WPP’ revenues. Additionally, WPPs deviate differently from the expected energy depending on the balancing rules, which can impact the system. Furthermore, these balancing rules should be considered with other market regulations, such as the design of support schemes.     

Application of a control algorithm for wind speed prediction and active power generation

The main objective of the work described in this paper is to offer a new method of prediction of wind speeds, whilst aware that the method develops predictions in time-scales that can vary from a few minutes to an hour. This is needed because wind energy generation is increasing its participation in energy distribution and has to compete with other energy sources that are not so variable in terms of generated active power. It is important to consider that active power demand can vary quite rapidly and different sources of electricity generation must be available. In the case of wind energy, wind speed predictions are an important tool to help producers make the best decisions when selling the energy produced. These decisions are crucial in the electricity market, because of the economic benefits for producers and consequently their profitability, depends on them. The algorithm presented in this paper is based on an artificial neural network and two types of wind data have been used to test the algorithm. In the first, data was collected from a not very windy area; in the second data was collected from a real wind farm located in Navarre (North of Spain), and the values vary from very low to high speeds. Although the algorithm was not tested with typical wind speed values measured on offshore wind farm applications, it can be concluded from the first set of results presented in this paper that the algorithm is valid for estimating average speed values. Finally, a generic algorithm for the active power generation of a wind farm is presented.     

Forecast of hourly average wind speed with ARMA models in Navarre (Spain)

In this article we have used the ARMA (autoregressive moving average process) and persistence models to predict the hourly average wind speed up to 10 h in advance. In order to adjust the time series to the ARMA models, it has been necessary to carry out their transformation and standardization, given the non-Gaussian nature of the hourly wind speed distribution and the non-stationary nature of its daily evolution. In order to avoid seasonality problems we have adjusted a different model to each calendar month. The study expands to five locations with different topographic characteristics and to nine years. It has been proven that the transformation and standardization of the original series allow the use of ARMA models and these behave significantly better in the forecast than the persistence model, especially in the longer-term forecasts. When the acceptable RMSE (root mean square error) in the forecast is limited to 1.5 m/s, the models are only valid in the short term.     

基于PSO-BP神经网络的短期光伏系统发电预测

对光伏发电影响因素进行了分析,建立了粒子群算法优化的前向神经网络光伏系统发电预测模型。该模型利用了粒子群算法来优化神经网络内部连接权值和阈值,兼具粒子群和BP神经模型的优点,具有较好的收敛速度,泛化性能与预测精度。将光伏电站发电历史数据与天气情况作为样本,运用所建立的模型进行了训练与预测。结果表明,经过粒子群优化的BP网络模型预测精度高于典型BP网络,验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于BP神经网络与遗传算法风电场超短期风速预测优化研究

风速预测对于风力发电并网调度至关重要。基于BP神经网络建立了风速预测模型,并从BP算法及遗传算法自身特点出发,针对BP网络结构确定困难、收敛速度慢等问题,提出创建多种群遗传算法,实现对BP神经网络的结构和权值初始值的同步优化。通过具体算例表明,经优化后的BP算法的收敛步数和计算时间明显减少,预测精度更高,网络整体性能有了显著提高。     

Estimation of wind speed profile using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)

Wind energy has become a major competitor of traditional fossil fuel energy, particularly with the successful operation of multi-megawatt sized wind turbines. However, wind with reasonable speed is not adequately sustainable everywhere to build an economical wind farm. The potential site has to be thoroughly investigated at least with respect to wind speed profile and air density. Wind speed increases with height, thus an increase of the height of turbine rotor leads to more generated power. Therefore, it is imperative to have a precise knowledge of wind speed profiles in order to assess the potential for a wind farm site. This paper proposes a clustering algorithm based neuro-fuzzy method to find wind speed profile up to height of 100 m based on knowledge of wind speed at heights 10, 20, 30, 40 m. The model estimated wind speed at 40 m based on measured data at 10, 20, and 30 m has 3% mean absolute percent error when compared with measured wind speed at height 40 m. This close agreement between estimated and measured wind speed at 40 m indicates the viability of the proposed method. The comparison with the 1/7th law and experimental wind shear method further proofs the suitability of the proposed method for generating wind speed profile based on knowledge of wind speed at lower heights.     

Forecasting method of monthly wind power generation based on climate model and long short-term memory neural network

Predicting wind power generation over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatching departments, as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions. This study presents a monthly wind power generation forecasting method based on a climate model and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. A nonlinear mapping model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours. After considering the meteorological data (as predicted for the future) and new installed capacity planning, the monthly wind power generation forecast results are output. A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.     

Optimization of wind turbine energy and power factor with an evolutionary computation algorithm

An evolutionary computation approach for optimization of power factor and power output of wind turbines is discussed. Data-mining algorithms capture the relationships among the power output, power factor, and controllable and non-controllable variables of a 1.5 MW wind turbine. An evolutionary strategy algorithm solves the data-derived optimization model and determines optimal control settings. Computational experience has demonstrated opportunities to improve the power factor and the power output by optimizing set points of blade pitch angle and generator torque. It is shown that the pitch angle and the generator torque can be controlled to maximize the energy capture from the wind and enhance the quality of the power produced by the wind turbine with a DFIG generator. These improvements are in the presence of reactive power remedies used in modern wind turbines. The concepts proposed in this paper are illustrated with the data collected at an industrial wind farm.     

基于IFOA-GRNN的电力系统短期负荷预测

考虑到电网负荷与诸多因素有关,设计了一种带有温度、气象、日期类型的广义回归神经网络（GRNN）负荷预测模型。为了提高该模型的预测精度,提出了一种改进果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络（IFOA-GRNN）的方法,即在利用果蝇优化算法（FOA）进入迭代寻优时,通过改进搜索距离优化该算法的性能和稳定性。利用改进的FOA优化GRNN的光滑参数,然后利用训练好的预测模型对甘肃省某地区进行了短期负荷预测,并与FOA-GRNN和误差反向传播神经网络(BPNN)模型结果进行了误差比较。结果表明, IFOA-GRNN具有较高的预测精度,能够满足电力系统短期负荷预测的要求。     

A novel online training neural network-based algorithm for wind speed estimation and adaptive control of PMSG wind turbine system for maximum power extraction

In this paper, an adaptive control scheme for maximum power point tracking of stand-alone PMSG wind turbine systems (WTS) is presented. A novel procedure to estimate the wind speed is derived. To achieve this, a neural network identifier (NNI) is designed in order to approximate the mechanical torque of the WTS. With this information, the wind speed is calculated based on the optimal mechanical torque point. The NNI approximates in real-time the mechanical torque signal and it does not need off-line training to get its optimal parameter values. In this way, it can really approximates any mechanical torque value with good accuracy. In order to regulate the rotor speed to the optimal speed value, a block-backstepping controller is derived. Uniform asymptotic stability of the tracking error origin is proved using Lyapunov arguments. Numerical simulations and comparisons with a standard passivity based controller are made in order to show the good performance of the proposed adaptive scheme.     

Reactive power dispatch in wind farms using particle swarm optimization technique and feasible solutions search

In this paper, an optimization method for the reactive power dispatch in wind farms (WF) is presented. Particle swarm optimization (PSO), combined with a feasible solution search (FSSPSO) is applied in order to optimize the reactive power dispatch, taking into consideration the reactive power requirement at point of common coupling (PCC), while active power losses are minimized in a WF. The reactive power requirement at PCC is included as a restriction problem and is dealt with feasible solution search. Finally an individual set point, particular for each wind turbine (WT), is found. The algorithm is tested in a WF with 12 WTs, taking into consideration different control options and different active power output levels.     

Integration of hydrogen storage system and wind generation in power systems under demand response program: A novel p-robust stochastic programming

Penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems increase all over the world to overcome current challenges, most importantly environmental issues. Beside advantages of RESs, their integration into the power systems have imposed various challenges considering uncertain and intermitted power output. To cope with these challenges, utilizing energy storage systems with renewable energy sources alongside the demand response (DR) programs are considered as reliable solutions. On the other hand, in an uncertain environment, minimizing worst-case cost or regret is counted as an important criterion to evaluate operation of any system under uncertain parameters. Therefore, in this paper, optimal operation of power systems is solved under penetration of wind turbines, hydrogen storage system, and DR programs in an uncertain environment. To guarantee robust operation of the system under the worst-case scenario, a novel stochastic p-robust optimization method (SPROM) is proposed which combines both stochastic programming and robust optimization approaches where minimizes the worst-case cost or regret level. The performance of the developed model is evaluated considering a six-bus test system under two cases as stochastic optimization (SO) and SPROM. Obtained results show that the maximum regret level is reduced considerably using the proposed SPROM comparing with pure stochastic method.     

Dynamic model of wind energy conversion systems with variable speed synchronous generator and full-size power converter for large-scale power system stability studies

This paper presents a dynamic model for variable speed wind energy conversion systems, equipped with a variable pitch wind turbine, a synchronous electrical generator, and a full power converter, specially developed for its use in power system stability studies involving large networks, with a high number of buses and a high level of wind generation penetration. The validity of the necessary simplifications has been contrasted against a detailed model that allows a thorough insight into the mechanical and electrical behavior of the system, and its interaction with the grid. The developed dynamic model has been implemented in a widely used power system dynamics simulation software, PSS/E, and its performance has been tested in a well-documented test power network.     

An efficient approach for electric load forecasting using distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) & HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network) neural network

This paper presents a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory, named distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) & HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network), applied to the electric load forecasting problem. The distributed ART combines the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multi-layer perceptions. The HS-ARTMAP, a hybrid of an RBF (Radial Basis Function)-network-like module which uses hyper-sphere basis function substitute the Gaussian basis function and an ART-like module, performs incremental learning capabilities in function approximation problem. The HS-ARTMAP only receives the compressed distributed coding processed by distributed ART to deal with the proliferation problem which ARTMAP (adaptive resonance theory map) architecture often encounters and still performs well in electric load forecasting. To demonstrate the performance of the methodology, data from New South Wales and Victoria in Australia are illustrated. Results show that the developed method is much better than the traditional BP and single HS-ARTMAP neural network.