Extraction of synoptic pressure patterns for long-term wind speed estimation in wind farms using evolutionary computing

In this paper we present an evolutionary approach for the problem of discovering pressure patterns under a quality measure related to wind speed and direction. This clustering problem is specially interesting for companies involving in the management of wind farms, since it can be useful for analysis of results of the wind farm in a given period and also for long-term wind speed prediction. The proposed evolutionary algorithm is based on a specific encoding of the problem, which uses a dimensional reduction of the problem. With this special encoding, the required centroids are evolved together with some other parameters of the algorithm. We define a specific crossover operator and two different mutations in order to improve the evolutionary search of the proposed approach. In the experimental part of the paper, we test the performance of our approach in a real problem of pressure pattern extraction in the Iberian Peninsula, using a wind speed and direction series in a wind farm in the center of Spain. We compare the performance of the proposed evolutionary algorithm with that of an existing weather types (WT) purely meteorological approach, and we show that the proposed evolutionary approach is able to obtain better results than the WT approach.     

Surface wind speed reconstruction from synoptic pressure fields: machine learning versus weather regimes classification techniques

This paper tackles a problem of surface wind speed reconstruction based on synoptic‐scale meteorological fields. Specifically, two different approaches are discussed and compared: a pure Machine Learning method, formed by a Support Vector Regression and a genetic algorithm that only considers synoptic pressure as input variable, and a Weather Regimes Classification Technique, based on a k‐means clustering of the main three principal components of the geopotential height field and a simple, but efficient, linear regression between the surface pressure gradient and the observed surface wind. Both algorithms are shown to be accurate enough for wind speed reconstruction at medium latitude regions, even when there are only a few years of observations. These methodologies can also be used for filling gaps in wind speed series and, with some modifications and further research, they could be used for wind speed forecasting. The algorithms proposed are fully described and compared in this paper, and their performance has been comparatively evaluated in several real problems of wind speed reconstruction at three sites (Cabauw (The Netherlands), Capel (Wales, UK) and Kaegnes (Denmark)), obtaining excellent results in terms of wind speed reconstruction with moderate complexity in data processing and algorithms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seeding evolutionary algorithms with heuristics for optimal wind turbines positioning in wind farms

In this paper a novel evolutionary algorithm for optimal positioning of wind turbines in wind farms is proposed. A realistic model for the wind farm is considered in the optimization process, which includes orography, shape of the wind farm, simulation of the wind speed and direction, and costs of installation, connection and road construction among wind turbines. Regarding the solution of the problem, this paper introduces a greedy heuristic algorithm which is able to obtain a reasonable initial solution for the problem. This heuristic is then used to seed the initial population of the evolutionary algorithm, improving its performance. It is shown that the proposed seeded evolutionary approach is able to obtain very good solutions to this problem, which maximize the economical benefit which can be obtained from the wind farm.     

Can synoptic drivers explain rotor-area wind conditions and predict energy output?

Synoptic-scale weather patterns are an important driver of wind speed at turbine hub height, but wind energy generation is also affected by the wind profile across the rotor. In this research, we use a 6-year record of hourly profile measurements at the Eolos Wind Research Station in Minnesota, USA, to investigate whether synoptic weather patterns can provide information about rotor-area characteristics in addition to hub-height wind speed. We use sea level pressure data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis to classify synoptic patterns at the Eolos site into 15 synoptic types and use the Eolos wind profile data to create mean hourly and mean monthly values of wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height (80 m), and wind speed shear, wind direction shear, and the potential temperature gradient across the rotor (30–129 m), for each synoptic type. Using a simple linear regression model, we find that, at monthly time scales, wind speed, turbulence intensity, and wind speed shear across the rotor are the most important variables for predicting monthly wind energy output from the Eolos turbine. Regression models using the original Eolos data and the derived synoptic types capture about 64% and 55% of the variance in monthly energy output, respectively. When fewer than the full 6 years of observations are used to fit the regression model, however, predictions using the synoptic types slightly outperform predictions using the Eolos observations. These results suggest that seasonal energy projections may be enhanced by incorporating wind profile measurements with synoptic-scale drivers.     

基于思维进化算法优化BP神经网络的渗透参数反演研究

针对传统BP神经网络反演渗透参数的准确性很大程度依赖于初始权值和阈值的选择的问题,引入全局寻优能力极强、待调参数较少、收敛速度快的思维进化算法优化BP神经网络,以弥补传统BP神经网络在解决该问题时拟合能力有限、容易陷入局部最优、收敛速度慢的缺陷,进而提出了思维进化算法优化BP神经网络反演渗透参数的新方法。对某混凝土面板堆石坝进行渗透参数反演结果表明,与传统BP神经网络相比,思维进化算法优化BP神经网络具有更好的泛化能力,反演得到的渗压测点水头与实际值吻合更好,渗透参数符合实际。     

Anticipatory Control of Wind Turbines With Data-Driven Predictive Models

The concept of anticipatory control applied to wind turbines is presented. Anticipatory control is based on the model predictive control (MPC) approach. Unlike the MPC method, noncontrollable variables (such as wind speed) are directly considered in the dynamic equations presented in the paper to predict response variables, e.g., rotor speed and turbine power output. To determine future states of the power drive with the dynamic equations, a time series model was built for wind speed. The time series model was fused with the dynamic equations to predict the response variables over a certain prediction horizon. Based on these predictions, an optimization model was solved to find the optimal control settings to improve the power output without incurring large rotor speed changes. As both the dynamic equations and time series model were built by data mining algorithms, no gradient information is available. A modified evolutionary strategy algorithm was used to solve a nonlinear constrained optimization problem. The proposed approach has been tested on the data collected from a 1.5 MW wind turbine.      

基于TPNT含风电场发输电组合系统可靠性评估

为克服含风电场可靠性评估中需已知风速分布函数的缺点,提出了一种基于三阶多项式正态变换(TPNT)的非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法评估含风电场发输电系统的可靠性。在已知风速历史数据或风速分布函数的情况下,通过TPNT构建风速随机变量与标准正态分布变量的关系,进而利用标准正态分布函数的性质产生具有任意数量的具有指定相关性的风速样本,并应用于风电场接入的发输电系统可靠性计算中。通过算例分析验证了TPNT应用于发输电系统可靠性计算中的适用性。在此基础上,从风速相关性、额定容量、风资源强度和风电场位置四个角度分析了风电场接入对可靠性的影响。为含风电场发输电系统可靠性的评估提供了新思路。     

Short-term wind speed prediction based on improved PSO algorithm optimized EM-ELM

Short-term wind speed prediction is of importance for power grids. It can mitigate the disadvantageous impacts of wind farms on power systems and enhance the competitiveness of wind power in electricity markets. A short-term wind speed prediction model is proposed. Many useless neurons of incremental extreme learning machine have little influences on the final output, at the same time, reduce the efficiency of the algorithm. In order to solve this problem, based on error minimized extreme learning machine, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to decrease the number of useless neurons, achieve the goal of reducing the network complexity and improving the efficiency of the algorithm. The stability and convergence of the algorithm are proved. The actual short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multistep prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is performed out. Compared with the other prediction models, the simulation results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper reduces the training time of the model and decreases the number of hidden layer nodes. The prediction model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability, meanwhile improve the prediction performance indicators.     

Probabilistic multi-objective optimal power flow considering correlated wind power and load uncertainties

Increasing penetration of wind power in power systems causes difficulties in system planning due to the uncertainty and non dispatchability of the wind power. The important issue, in addition to uncertain nature of the wind speed, is that the wind speeds in neighbor locations are not independent and are in contrast, highly correlated. For accurate planning, it is necessary to consider this correlation in optimization planning of the power system. With respect to this point, this paper presents a probabilistic multi-objective optimal power flow (MO-OPF) considering the correlation in wind speed and the load. This paper utilizes a point estimate method (PEM) which uses Nataf transformation. In reality, the joint probability density function (PDF) of wind speed related to different places is not available but marginal PDF and the correlation matrix is available in most cases, which satisfy the service condition of Nataf transformation. In this paper biogeography based optimization (BBO) algorithm, which is a powerful optimization algorithm in solving problems including both continuous and discrete variables, is utilized in order to solve probabilistic MO-OPF problem. In order to demonstrate performance of the method, IEEE 30-bus standard test case with integration of two wind farms is examined. Then the obtained results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) results. The comparison indicates high accuracy of the proposed method.     

Classification of wind speed distributions using a mixture of Dirichlet distributions

Wind energy production is very sensitive to instantaneous wind speed fluctuations. Thus rapid variation of wind speed due to changes in the local meteorological conditions can lead to electrical power variations of the order of the nominal power output. The high variability of this renewable energy source can caused a disruptive effect on power quality and reliability, in non-interconnected island networks as in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). To palliate these difficulties, it is essential to identify and characterize the wind speed distribution over very short time intervals. This allows anticipating the eventuality of power shortage or power surge. Therefore, it is of interest to categorize wind speed fluctuations into distinct classes and to estimate the probability of a distribution to belong to a class. This paper presents a method for classifying wind speed distributions by estimating a finite mixture of Dirichlet distributions. The SAEM algorithm that we use provides a fine distinction between three wind speed distribution classes. It is a new nonparametric method for wind speed classification.     

A particle swarm optimization for wind energy control problem

The control problem of a wind turbine involves the determination of rotor speed and tip-speed ratio to maximize power and energy capture from the wind. The problem can be formulated as a nonlinear programming problem with the annual energy generation as the objective function. The wind speed distribution is modeled as the Weibull distribution. The Weibull shape and scale parameters are assigned to be stochastic in response to limited wind data and variability nature of the wind. It is proposed to apply particle swarm optimization to solve for optimum rotor speed under fixed-speed operation and optimum tip-speed ratio under variable-speed operation. The optimum rotor speed varies with the wind speed distribution, while the optimum tip-speed ratio does not depend on the wind speed distribution. It can be concluded from the simulation results that both the wind power and energy are more dependent of the Weibull scale parameter than the Weibull shape parameter. This implies that the wind power and energy are more dependent of the mean wind speed than the speed distribution.     

基于位置动态参数PSO算法的水库防洪调度研究

介绍了一种易于实现、参数少且收敛快的集群智能算法——粒子群算法。针对标准PSO算法的缺陷,提出了在位置进化方程中引进动态参数的方法,改进了标准粒子群算法的收敛速度。根据建立的水库优化调度数学模型,将改进的粒子群优化算法运用到水库优化调度计算中,并通过算例验证该算法的可行性和有效性。     

考虑风电接入的配电网双阶段优化重构策略

针对小型风电机组接入的配电网,构建了双阶段优化重构策略,在考虑风电随机性的同时基于时间尺度求得最优重构方案。第一阶段针对风电随机性,运用场景分析法划分场景并得到风机有功出力,然后采用TLBO算法寻找每个场景的最优拓扑结构;第二阶段基于时间尺度的重构方案确定,首先对某时间段的风速数据进行场景划分,根据场景转换得到准重构时刻,然后以综合费用最小为目标确定该时段内的最优重构方案,并在美国PGE69节点配网系统中接入两台风电机组进行仿真验证。结果表明,所提重构方案有效且实用,能实现含风电接入配网的优化运行。     

基于风速时空关联的多步预测方法

基于风速的空间关联性提出一种新的多位置多步风速组合预测方法.对风场内各风力机进行灰色关联分析,并据此利用昆虫优化算法进行优选重构,获取目标风力机及临近域空间信息.利用卷积神经网络对重构矩阵进行空间特征提取,并输入长短时记忆网络进行多步预测.最后,将所提方法应用于不同风场进行风速预测,通过对比分析验证所提方法的预测精度和...     

Forecasting aggregated wind power production of multiple wind farms using hybrid wavelet‐PSO‐NNs

This paper describes the problem of short‐term wind power production forecasting based on meteorological information. Aggregated wind power forecasts are produced for multiple wind farms using a hybrid intelligent algorithm that uses a data filtering technique based on wavelet transform (WT) and a soft computing model (SCM) based on neural network (NN), which is optimized by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid intelligent WT + NNPSO model, which takes into account the interactions of wind power, wind speed, wind direction, and temperature in the forecast process, the real data of wind farms located in the southern Alberta, Canada, are used to train and test the proposed model. The test results produced by the proposed hybrid WT + NNPSO model are compared with other SCMs as well as the benchmark persistence method. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed technique is capable of performing effectively with the variability and intermittency of wind power generation series in order to produce accurate wind power forecasts. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于混沌自适应人工鱼群算法的含家庭储能配电网快速重构方法

针对分布式电源接入配电网具有波动性和随机性的特点,提出一种基于混沌自适应人工鱼群算法的含分布式电源配电网快速化重构方法。在风电、光伏和家用储能的数学模型和节点划分基础上,以电网网损、开关次数以及失电负荷成本最小为目标函数,建立基于多目标优化的含分布式电源配电网的优化重构模型。利用混沌自适应人工鱼群算法对模型进行求解,通过对鱼群的混沌初始化和自适应动态调整步长参数,提高了算法的全局搜索能力和收敛速度。根据电化学储能系统出力特性划分配电网网架重构的典型工作场景,通过含分布式电源的IEEE 33节点测试系统仿真实例验证了该文方法的有效性。仿真结果表明,与单独考虑电网网损成本相比,由该文方法得到的配电网优化重构成本降低了50%以上,优化重构时间均小于0.9 s,实现了含分布式电源配电网的快速自愈。     

基于量子进化在线序贯极限学习机的变桨系统故障检测

针对复杂工况下风电机组变桨系统故障检测问题,采用在线序贯极限学习机建立变桨系统状态监测模型,利用ReliefF算法进行模型的特征选择,通过量子进化算法优化在线序贯极限学习机的超参数集,并引入马氏距离函数计算变桨系统状态监测模型的残差,判断风电机组变桨系统的异常。以辽宁某风电场1.5 MW双馈风电机组变桨系统为例,将所提出的模型分别与粒子群优化极限学习机、粒子群优化支持向量机、随机权神经网络、极限学习机和反向传播神经网络模型进行对比,结果表明所提出的模型精度优于其他模型,所提方法的故障检测正确率高于3σ阈值法和核主成分分析方法。     

基于改进经验小波变换和最小二乘支持向量机的短期风速预测

针对原始风速信号非线性和非平稳性的特征,提出一种新的改进经验小波变换(IEWT)方法,该方法可将风速信号分解成一组有限带宽的子序列,以降低其不稳定性。在此基础上,结合最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM),提出基于改进经验小波变换和最小二乘支持向量机(IEWT-LSSVM)的短期风速预测方法,并通过模拟退火粒子群优化算法(SAPSO)对相空间重构参数以及LSSVM模型的2个超参数进行共同优化。最后以华北某风电场采集的风速信号为算例,结果表明基于IEWT-LSSVM的预测模型能有效追踪风速信号的变化,在单步预测和多步预测上均具有较高的预测精度。     

Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models

Short-term wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm operations and the integration of wind energy into the power grid system. Adaptive and reliable methods and techniques of wind speed forecasts are urgently needed in view of the stochastic nature of wind resource varying from time to time and from site to site. This paper presents a robust two-step methodology for accurate wind speed forecasting based on Bayesian combination algorithm, and three neural network models, namely, adaptive linear element network (ADALINE), backpropagation (BP) network, and radial basis function (RBF) network. The hourly average wind speed data from two North Dakota sites are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, while the performances of the neural networks are not consistent in forecasting 1-h-ahead wind speed for the two sites or under different evaluation metrics, the Bayesian combination method can always provide adaptive, reliable and comparatively accurate forecast results. The proposed methodology provides a unified approach to tackle the challenging model selection issue in wind speed forecasting.     

Analysis and synthesis of sliding mode control for large scale variable speed wind turbine for power optimization

The problem of designing a nonlinear feedback control scheme for variable speed wind turbines, without wind speed measurements, in below rated wind conditions was addressed. The objective is to operate the wind turbines in order to have maximum wind power extraction while also the mechanical loads are reduced. Two control strategies were proposed seeking a better performance. The first strategy uses a tracking controller that ensures the optimal angular velocity for the rotor. The second strategy uses a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) algorithm while a non-homogeneous quasi-continuous high-order sliding mode controller is applied to ensure the power tracking. Two algorithms were developed to solve the tracking control problem for the first strategy. The first one is a sliding mode output feedback torque controller combined with a wind speed estimator. The second algorithm is a quasi-continuous high-order sliding mode controller to ensure the speed tracking. The proposed controllers are compared with existing control strategies and their performance is validated using a FAST model based on the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART). The controllers show a good performance in terms of energy extraction and load reduction.