US nuclear power performance

During the past decade there has been a steady diminution in the economic expectations and public support for nuclear power in the USA. An increasing number of nuclear plants have been delayed, deferred, or cancelled, and those being completed face unforeseen rising costs. As a result, both the electric utility industry and the public generally perceive nuclear power, based on light water reactor technology, as intrinsically uneconomic and troublesome as a future option for power generation. The authors believe that this is not because of the inherent nature of nuclear power in general or light water reactors in particular. It arises mainly from the adverse regulatory and institutional framework in which electrical utilities and power plant constructors have to operate in the USA.     

Predictive economic efficiency of combining nuclear power plants with autonomous hydrogen power complex

Currently, the United Energy System (UEC) of Russia is trending in the deficit of peak and half-peak capacity with a simultaneous increase in the number of nuclear power plants (NPPs), which will require the participation of the NPPs in the variable part of the schedule of electrical loads.In addition to the economic need to maintain the high-level utilization rate, there are technological limitations of maneuverability for NPPs.The authors developed an approach to solving this problem by combining with an environmentally friendly energy source – an autonomous hydrogen power complex, which includes thermal batteries and an additional multifunctional low-power steam turbine installation.The developed energy complex can also provide reliable reservation of electricity supply to consumers of their own needs of the nuclear power plant in case of complete blackout of the plant.The feasibility study of the main equipment of the autonomous hydrogen power complex, which is necessary for combining with a two-unit nuclear power plant with WWER-1000, has been evaluated.On the basis of the assessment of the inflation indicators of the Russian economy over the past 11 years, three variants of fuel cost dynamics and tariff rates for electricity (capacity) as well as the size of operating costs, including depreciation deductions to the main equipment, are defined, taking into account the current principles of price formation.The result is a value for accumulated net present value, depending on the ratio of the cost of the half-peak and off-peak electricity at different inflation rates.The positive economic effect of reducing the risk of the core damage accident, replacing the construction of the gas turbine unit as a maneuverable source of electricity in the power grid and increasing the income of the Russian federal budget from the savings of natural gas has been taken into account.The greatest economic efficiency is achieved with maximum projected inflation, which is associated with the maximum rate of discounting and the high rate of growth of electricity tariffs.Reducing the risk of the core damage accident ensures that the proposed approach is competitive in all the inflation options under consideration and the ratio of electricity tariffs.     

De-regulated electric power markets and operating nuclear power plants: the case of British energy

One issue addressed in almost all electric power restructuring/de-regulation plans in both the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) was the recovery of operating nuclear power plant's spent fuel disposal costs and the expenditures to decommission the units when they are retired. Prior to restructuring, in theory at least, in both countries, electricity consumers were paying for the back end costs from operating nuclear power plants. Moreover, in virtually all cases in the US, states included special provisions to insure that consumers would continue to do so after power markets were de-regulated. When power markets in the UK were initially restructured/de-regulated and nuclear power privatized, the shareholders of British Energy (BE) were initially responsible for these costs. However, after electricity prices fell and BE collapsed, the British government shifted many of the costs to future taxpayers, as much as a century forward. If this was not done, the book value of BE's equity would have been about −3.5 billion pounds. That is, BE's liabilities would have been about −3.5 billion pounds greater than their assets. It is difficult to see how BE could remain viable under such circumstances.     

Projections of US GHG reductions from nuclear power new capacity based on historic levels of investment

Historical rates of capital investment in nuclear plant construction were used as a guide to estimate the potential rate of future capacity introduction. The total linear rate of capital expenditure over the entire period of historical construction from 1964 to 1990 was determined to equal $11.5 billion/yr, and that for the period of peak construction from 1973 to 1985 was computed as $17.9 billion/yr, all in 2004$. These values were used with a variety of current capital cost estimates for nuclear construction to obtain several scenarios for possible future nuclear capacity additions. These values were used to obtain the effect of projected nuclear generating capacity on GHG emissions assuming nuclear would directly replace coal-fired generation. It was concluded that actual reductions in emissions would not be experienced until 2038, yet growth in emissions from electrical production would be slowed through that period. Due to the significant time to introduce large-scale changes in the utility sector, nuclear energy cannot have a dramatic short-term effect on emissions. Nuclear power, however, can have a major positive longer term impact, particularly under more favorable cost and investment conditions.     

Stochastic approach in the optimization of A nuclear power system

The paper deals with a CANDU-CANDU (Th/Pu)-LMFBR (PuO₂) nuclear power system which evolves in a finite time interval. Its initial evolution is only in the CANDU variant, and subsequently in the variants CANDU (Th/Pu) and LMFBR (PuO₂) by the use of Pu produced in the system. It is assumed that the fuel burn-up in the LMFBR (PuO₂) reactors is a random value, as it is governed by an a priori determined field of probability. The resources of natural uranium and Pu which severely influence the development of the system are also random, as they cannot be definitely known, and moreover they are actually governed by another field of probability already known. Under these conditions, the set of optimal solutions and associated optimal values represented by the nuclear electric powers released in the system at the end of the considered time interval have to be derived. Concomitantly, the distribution of the optimal value, its average value and standard deviation can be evaluated. This type of stochastic approach to nuclear power system optimization is much more valid than the deterministic approach, as it supplies information of interest for the decision-makers engaged in the solution of a nuclear power policy.     

New nuclear power generation in the UK: Cost benefit analysis

This paper provides an economic analysis of possible nuclear new build in the UK. It compares costs and benefits of nuclear new build against conventional gas-fired generation and low carbon technologies (CCS, wind, etc.). A range of scenarios are considered to allow for uncertainty as regards nuclear and other technology costs, gas prices and carbon prices.     

The analysis of some nuclear power integrated systems

This paper define the concept of the nuclear power integrated system as a fast-thermal one. the integration with three successive fast reactor generations is considered: first reactor genertion—LMFBR(PuO₂); second reactor generation-LMFBR(CPu); and third reacator generation—GCFBR(PuO₂). A time interval of [0, 40] years is considered and the time evolution of the integrated system is followed under the following circumstances: a time delay of 15 years in the case of the first reactor generation, 20 years in the case of the second reactor generation and 25 years in the case of the third reactor generation. By applying the mathematical model of integrated systems an analysis of the three nuclear power integrated systems is made and many important conclusions of interest to decision makers are also drawn.     

Lessons of nuclear power US and UK history

Most commentators on the history of civil nuclear power have looked at the mistakes which have occurred, but mistakes always happen. What is notable about nuclear power is not the existence of error in its development, but the great cost of mistakes. This is a function of the technology itself. Nuclear plant has a long lead time, large unit size, is capital intensive and heavily dependent on special infrastructure. This makes whatever errors occur in development very costly. Commercial breeders would have the same features, but to an even more marked degree. Mistakes in developing this technology are therefore likely to be even more expensive.     

Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits

Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.     

Accumulation of nuclear spent fuel from UK power stations

In the absence of a reprocessing industry able to deal with large quantities of irradiated nuclear fuel, it is expected that the bulk of the oxide spent fuel discharged from nuclear reactors will be stored for some decades. In this report the rate of accumulation of spent fuel in the UK and the proportion of its plutonium content is assessed. It is shown that the plutonium content of the metal spent fuel arising from Magnox stations alone should be sufficient to fuel a modest fast breeder programme of 1–2 GW_e well into the next century. As there is an established reprocessing industry for metal fuel, it is argued that reprocessing of oxide fuel need not take place until uncertainties over its cost and necessity are resolved.     

Economies of scale in nuclear power plant

This paper demonstrates that, to first order, the optimum size of nuclear plant depends only on the form of the dependence of capital costs and availability with size and not on absolute levels; it is also independent of nuclear fuel costs. the advantage of this treatment is that the forms of these dependences are less controversial than absolute values and the scope for confusion in determining optimum size is therefore reduced.     

The world nuclear power scene and UK energy policy in 1984

The world nuclear scene is a patchwork, with a crisis of confidence in most Western countries (with France as the outstanding exception), steady progress in the Eastern bloc, and mixed experience in the LDCs — partly because of lack of interest by developed countries in the production and marketing of small robust nuclear plants with suitable back-up services. The situation in the UK is a microcosm of that in the Western world as a whole. It is compounded by the absence of any coherent energy policy other than an unspoken one of reliance on market forces, combined with short-term expediency, as the dominating element in decisions needing to be taken on individual energy industries.     

Lessons of nuclear power French ‘success’ and the breeder

In an earlier article the author has argued that the turbulent history of nuclear power in Britain and the USA stems from the technology itself, and has little to do with the very different institutional arrangements made for the new technology in the two countries. Nuclear plant has various features which make its planning extraordinarily difficult. Its long lead time, large unit size, capital intensity and dependence on complex infrastructure combine to ensure that mistakes are likely to be made in planning the technology and that what mistakes do occur are expensive. This article aims to expand on the earlier one in two ways; by looking at the apparent success of the French nuclear programme which seems to run counter to the thesis of the earlier article, and by trying to draw lessons from the earlier analysis for the breeder reactor.     

A portfolio analysis model of the demand for nuclear power plants

Electric utilities are characterized as timid risk averters that select coal or nuclear plants or both, where the levellized cost of each is characterized by considerable risk. A portfolio selection model is developed to explain the historical demand for nuclear reactors by region. Some qualitative policy implications are derived with respect to the DOE's objective of reviving the nuclear power market.     

A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970–2005

We present a reactor-by-reactor analysis of historical busbar costs for 99 nuclear reactors in the United States, and compare those costs with recent projections for next-generation US reactors. We argue that cost projections far different from median historical costs require more justification than estimates that lie close to those medians. Our analysis suggests that some recent projections of capital costs, construction duration, and total operations and maintenance costs are quite low—far enough from the historical medians that additional scrutiny may be required to justify using such estimates in current policy discussions and planning.     

A decision problem under uncertainty for nuclear power system development

Decision making under uncertainty is a further step in comparison with decision under risk in the more realistic approach to decision problems concerning, for instance, nuclear power system development. In this paper the theory developed is, however, based in a great measure on that of risk preference. The theory of decision making under uncertainty is applied to a nuclear power system NPS consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs. Nine development alternatives of the system which evolves for a period of 40 years are considered. The fast reactor integration is accomplished beginning in year 15 with a variable time delay so that for every alternative, six final states are possible. An econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of the given time interval for every possible state of any alternative. Further, the complete ignorance case is considered, resulting from the principle of insufficient reason, and the risk preference theory is applied. Then the partial ignorance case is taken into account and finally it it shown how we can infer a plausible a priori optimal probability distribution to have an optimal decision characterized by an optimal selected development alternative, for which a minimum certain equivalent of cost price of annual energy is realized with an accepted level of risk and a determined value of risk averter.     

The socio-political economy of nuclear power development in Japan and South Korea

This paper analyzes the socio-cultural, political and economic conditions prevalent during the inception of nuclear power programs in Japan and South Korea in order to identify commonalities which support nuclear power program expansion. The study identifies six factors as having a clear influence on supporting nuclear power development: (1) strong state involvement in guiding economic development; (2) centralization of national energy policymaking and planning; (3) campaigns to link technological progress with national revitalization; (4) influence of technocratic ideology on policy decisions; (5) subordination of challenges to political authority, and (6) low levels of civic activism. The paper postulates that insights from this study can be used to assess the propensity of nations which have the emergent capacity to support nuclear power development to actually embark on such programs.     

Licensing of nuclear power plants: The case of Sweden in an international comparison

Efficient power plant licensing procedures are essential for the functioning of deregulated electricity markets. The purpose of this paper is to review and analyse the licensing process for nuclear power plants in Sweden, and in part contrast the Swedish case with the corresponding approaches in a selection of other countries. This approach permits a discussion of how licensing processes can be altered and what the benefits and drawbacks of such changes are. The paper highlights and discusses a number of important legal issues and implications, including, for instance: (a) the role of political versus impartial decision-making bodies; (b) the tension between national policy goals and implementation at the local level; (c) public participation and access to justice; (d) consistency and clarity of the legal system; and (e) the introduction of license time limits.     

Fuelling costs of nuclear reactors A comparison of CANDY versus PWR nuclear fuel cycle costs using UK data PWR nuclear fuel cycle costs using UK data

Nuclear fuel cycle costs for a single PWR electricity generating station have been calculated and reported as part of the CEGB Proof of Evidence to the Sizewell B Public Inquiry. In the present study, a similar calculation is carried out for a CANDU-type station. The comparison of results shows a considerable advantage in favour of CANDU fuel cycle costs. In view of uncertainties regarding the cost and availability of reprocessing, this cost is not included in the comparison.     

Decision making under risk in the case of nuclear power system development

Decision making under risk offers promise of a new and valuable procedure for social decisions. In this paper the theory of risk perference is adopted and it is shown that the interesting type of risk attitude is constant risk aversion. the theory is applied to a nuclear power system consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs. Nine development alternatives for the system which evolves over a time period of 40 years are considered. the fast reactor integration is accomplished beginning in year 15 with a variable time delay so that for every alternative, six final states are possible. an econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of a given time interval for every possible state of any aiternative. Further, every state of an alternative is associated with a known probability and the concept of lottery is introduced. Finally, it is shown how to quantify the attitude toward risk and how to select among lotteries. In this way it was possible to obtaine the optimal development alternatives of the nuclear system in three cases: risk-perference, risk-indifference and risk-aversion. the solution in the last case is discussed in detail.