‘I-O-W’ model for national planning

The paper proposes an input-output-waste (I-O-W) model as an extension of the input-output model to incorporate waste management (WM) aspects in national planning. The waste aspects have not been explicitly considered in the existing literature on input-output economics. It is visualized that in the economic structure the waste parameter has a significant role to play, and the I-O-W model will be a closer representation of the economy than that of conventional input-output models. Any unnecessary input to or any undesirable output from the system is considered as waste. The basic framework of an I-O-W model is presented, which consists of a technology matrix, a final-demand matrix, and a WM policy matrix. The resource balance has been established by treating the input to be equal to the sum of output and waste. The technological coefficients are interlinked by wastivity indices. The projections of a hypothetical economy consisting of one production sector and one WM sector have been determined for material resources and for different WM policies.     

Generalization of I-O-W model for waste management policy analysis and national planning

The generalization of the input-output-waste (I-O-W) model for different types of resources is presented in this paper as a new paradigm of national consistency modelling. This incorporates waste management (WM) policy analysis in a national planning context. The I-O-W model is an extension of the input-output model that formulates the waste aspects explicitly. The systematic analysis of intersectoral flow of different resources and wastes is important at the macro level for preparing resource plans that can be further integrated to frame overall economic plans. The paper briefly overviews the I-O-W model and generalizes it for five basic resources, i.e. material, energy, manpower, capital and services. The resource balance has been established by treating input to be equal to output plus waste for each resource independently as well as for the overall flow. The inputs required and the possible outputs for the generalized I-O-W model are listed. An illustrative example has been given that works out the direct, indirect and total energy. flows for a hypothetical economy. The scheme of integration is presented for overall WM policy analysis and national planning.     

Central banking in a transitory economy: an adaptive control model for India

The purpose of this paper is to formulate a policy model for the Indian economy, incorporating an expectation generating mechanism in a formal way. The aim is to see how policies will change over time when the expectation of the private sector is changing. In a mixed economy planning has to take into account how the private sector formulates and revises its expectation regarding various government policies and their possible impacts on the endogenous variables (or target variables) in the economy. Normally in an economy like India's the government formulates its plan for the public sector over the next five years. The government can regulate the private sector by various means, such as licences, investment quotas, tax-subsidy rates, bank interest rates and by various monetary controls. The private sector, knowing the targets of the government, formulates its own expectations regarding the fulfulments of the targets (because it never expects that the government can fulfil its targets exactly) and possible movements of various policies. It behaves according to its expectations and realization of past expectations and thus allocates its resources. So the optimum design of public policies should be to direct the private sectors towards the desired goals defined by the planners, taking into account the reactions of the private sector. The purpose of public policy in such an environment should be to formulate different central bank policies regarding money stock, credit expansion and components of the money multiplier along with government discount rate, and the exchange rate so that the private sector would react in the desired way, given the goals set by the planners regarding national income, balance of payments, domestic absorptions and prices.     

Exploring Vulnerability and Interdependency of UK Infrastructure Using Key-Linkages Analysis

It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure over the last two decades. This in turn has resulted in infrastructure that is less capable of assisting the UK economy to grow. This article seeks to undertake an in-depth analysis of the inter-linkages and economic contributions from infrastructure within the UK. It explores the relationship between nine infrastructure sectors and how these sectors contribute to the rest of the UK economy using key-linkage analysis. Each infrastructure sector is shown to be unique in the way it interacts with other economic sectors and in the form of contribution it makes to the economy overall. Infrastructure is found to be a necessary and important part of economic development. The analysis finds that over the last 23 years there has been a decline in the relative economic contribution from infrastructure to UK GVA. Only two infrastructure sectors increased their relative contribution to GVA since 1992. These were the water transport sector and sewerage and sanitary services sector. Railway transport and gas distribution have had the largest relative decline in contribution towards UK GVA with relative contributions decreasing by over 50 % since 1992. The three most important infrastructure sectors contributing to UK GDP are land transport, electricity production and distribution and telecommunications respectively.     

Evolution of the linkage structure of ICT industry and its role in the economic system: the case of Korea*

ABSTRACT

When assessing the structural role of an industry sector within an economic system, considering its relationship to other sectors is crucial. Among others, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry, one of the innovation accelerators or key engines of economic growth, is evaluated. Specifically, we analyze inter-industry production inducement linkages within a qualitative input–output analysis framework, since it is useful for understanding the key structure of an economic system. Our purpose is to understand the significant spillover structure of the Republic of Korea’s ICT industry within the national production system, as it has played an important role in the national economy and grown dramatically over the years. The findings from the structural analysis, focused on changes in links, are as follows: First, ICT manufacturing showed a higher degree of heterogeneity than ICT service sectors in its sensitivity effects structure, an indication that this sector needs to be utilized in various other industries. Second, the spectrum of industries having significant production inducement linkages with the ICT industry is limited and furthermore, the influence effects of the ICT manufacturing sector diminished considerably although the ICT industry’s sensitivity effects increased. Finally, intra-industry linkages within the ICT industry are gradually strengthened especially between ICT services and manufacturing. These findings call for sustained policy efforts to promote the virtuous circle in the overall inter-industry production inducement system, by increasing the utilization of products and services from other sectors by ICT sectors (especially ICT manufacturing) as well as the application of ICT in other sectors.     

Coupled energy system—economic models and strategic planning

The energy system-economic analysis techniques developed for strategic planning encompass the technological features of the energy system as well as economic and environmental factors. The economic basis for these techniques is market clearing equilibrium, and models are specified for future planning years of interest. They are especially helpful for analyzing policies having long-run effects on energy supplies, prices, technologies, and final demands for energy.The major analytic components of this methodology for strategic planning in the energy sector include the Reference Energy System, single and multiple time period energy system optimization models, and an energy input-output model of the national economy. Policy applications of these techniques include R&D planning, interfuel substitution studies, energy demand analysis, oil stockpiling strategies, industry impacts of different energy scenarios, and analysis of life style changes.     

Optimal control of economic growth with application to Korean economy

This paper is concerned with the application of optimal control theory to the dual growth of the Korean economy. A closed two sector economic growth model is formulated by dividing the economy into agriculture and non-agriculture in order to represent the transitional phenomena between the two sectors. Taking capital and saving as state and control variables, respectively, the model governing the economic growth becomes a non-linear simultaneous differential equations with coupling terms of state and control variables. Assuming the Cobb-Douglas production function and the exponential form of the social welfare function, the necessary and sufficient conditions of the optimal control have been derived for the case of finite planning horizon by using the Pontryagin's maximum principle. Since deriving the optimal trajectories of state and control variables analytically is impossible, a numerical procedure based on the variation of extremals is used to obtain the optimal paths of the aggregate investment and consumption of the Korean economy.     

Parametric regulation of economic growth based on nonautonomous computable general equilibrium models

This paper provides some results of generalizing the theory of parametric regulation to the classes of nonautonomous continuous- and discrete-time dynamic systems. We present assertions on the existence of solutions to a series of variational calculus problems and on the continuous dependence of performance criteria on uncontrolled functions. The computable general equilibrium model (CGE model) of national economy sectors serves for illustrating the efficiency of the proposed parameter identification method for high-dimensional mathematical models. And finally, the CGE model of national economy sectors is used to analyze the sources of economic growth and to demonstrate the efficiency of the theory of parametric regulation for elaboration of government’s policy in the field of economic growth.     

A circular economy model of economic growth

The main purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical model incorporating the concept of circular economic activities. We construct a circular economy model with two types of economic resources, namely, a polluting input and a recyclable input. Overall, our results indicate that the factors affecting economic growth include the marginal product of the recyclable input, the recycling ratio, the cost of using the environmentally polluting input and the level of pollution arising from the employment of the polluting input. Our analysis also shows that, contrary to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), environmental quality cannot be maintained or improved via economic growth. Instead, the improvement in environmental quality, as measured by a reduction in pollution, can only be achieved by an increase in the environmental self-renewal rate or the recycling ratio.     

Strategic environmental assessment as an approach to assess waste management systems. Experiences from an Austrian case study

Waste management has evolved from the simple transportation of waste to landfills to complex systems, including waste prevention and waste recycling as well as several waste treatment and landfill technologies. To assess the environmental, economical and social effects of waste management systems, several tools have been developed. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is an approach for integrated assessment enhancing involvement in the planning of a decision supporting process. The aim of this paper is to show how SEA can be applied in a waste management context. For this purpose a case study is described where a SEA process was undertaken to develop a regional waste management plan. The approach from this case study is compared to other methods.     

An integrated System Dynamics model for strategic capacity planning in closed-loop recycling networks: A dynamic analysis for the paper industry

Recycling activities have demonstrated a remarkable increase over the last decade due to the economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In particular, capacity planning in production facilities has become a strategic issue of key importance affecting the profitability of the recycling industry.By integrating the simulation discipline and the feedback control theory into a dynamic consideration of recycling networks, this paper proposes a System Dynamics (SD) model for strategic capacity planning in the recycling industry. The decision-making process is based on a balanced tradeoff between profit and capacity utilization for a single producer with closed-loop recycling activities. The SD model captures physical stocks and flows apparent in real-world recycling networks and includes the feedback mechanisms which regulate these flows. When used as an “experimental tool”, the model tests alternative capacity planning policies and demonstrates policy suggestions for the forward and reverse channels, which maximize profitability over a strategic planning horizon. This experimentation is illustrated by using data from a paper producer with recycling activities, as a real-world test case. Extensive simulation runs, investigate the efficiency of a wide range capacity acquisition decisions, using total company profit as the measure of performance. Although such an analysis may differ from one recycling network to another, it has been kept as generic as possible to facilitate its applicability to a wide-spectrum of real-world local, regional or global networks.     

Incorporating Time-Varying Perturbations Into the Dynamic Inoperability Input–Output Model

This paper introduces a methodology to extend the capabilities of the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) to account for perturbations to sectors of the economy that are time varying and probabilistic. The DIIM accounts for the interdependent nature of the economy in determining the impact of a disruption on the ability of each economic sector to satisfy the prevailing demand. While the original formulation of the DIIM only allows for a single perturbation vector, this paper extends the DIIM to allow a perturbation matrix to be utilized as inputs to the model. The underlying motivation for this paper is understanding the impact of a pandemic on a regional economy. As such, idiosyncrasies associated with a pandemic are also accounted for in the model formulation. These include translating workforce absenteeism into a measure of sector inoperability and accounting for the impact of long-term absenteeism on a sector's ability to deliver its as-planned production output.     

Modelling of automobile shredder residue recycling in the Japanese legislative context

End-of-life vehicles (ELVs) represent one of the most important waste flows in Japan and 3.58 million was processed only in fiscal year 2008. In an attempt to reduce waste originating from ELVs, the Japanese Government introduced the ELV Recycling Law in 2002. Automobile shredder residue (ASR) recycling is essential to achieving the goals of the ELV Recycling Law and represents a major concern for the Japanese vehicle recycling industry. This paper proposes the tactical ASR recycling planning model, which can be used to assist Japanese vehicle recyclers to improve their profitability and ASR recycling efficiency. A numerical study is conducted in order to illustrate the potentials and applicability of the proposed modelling approach, and to gain insights into the performances of the Japanese vehicle recycling system and into the influence of the ELV Recycling Law. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate and validate the approach and its potentials. ELV Recycling Law influence is found to be crucial for the decision making on ASR recycling, as the 20% increase in valid recycling quota will cause approximately 50% decrease in the quantity of disposed ASR. We show that the stringent ASR recycling quota is easily attainable and present many interesting insights.     

The construction of a collaborative-design platform to support waste electrical and electronic equipment recycling

Recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is a very important subject not only from the viewpoint of waste treatment but also from the viewpoint of recovery of valuable materials. In the past, some obstacles make recycling challenging for today's manufactured products. First, it is difficult to gain all the information necessary to plan for the recycling evaluation, as most design information is owned and kept by suppliers. Another problem in recycling end-of-life (EOL) products is a lack of technologies to handle the very complex products that are being discarded today, because the knowledge of how to do so is owned by the recycler.This research demonstrates how to support WEEE recycling analysis by environmental information with the part of bill of material. A collaborative-design platform is further constructed and collected all the needed information using computer-aided design (CAD), enterprise resource planning (ERP), and product life-cycle management (PLM) systems. Through this platform, suppliers are required to provide component information to enable the manufacturer's design for disassembly and recycling analysis. The results demonstrate that designers can obtain disassembly and recycling information through the model, so that desirable changes can be made in the early stages of a design. An industrial case study from Taiwan is also provided to demonstrate the use of this model.     

A bottom-up optimization model for the long-term energy planning of the Greek power supply sector integrating mainland and insular electric systems

The energy planning of power sector constitutes a multifaceted challenge for policy makers, incorporating a variety of economic, technological, environmental, political and social aspects in order to ensure the unhindered equilibrium between electricity demand and electricity supply. This paper presents a deterministic bottom-up Mixed Integer Linear Programming model for the long-term energy planning of national power supply systems, having special focus and modeling effort on the peculiar case of Greece. It is a least cost optimization based model being expanded and enhanced with the integration of electric interconnections and the evident participation of environmental dimension. Its superstructure consists of multiple mathematical expressions representing power demand patterns, technical constraints, operation rules, penetration potential of energy sources, economic aspects, technological availability, environmental obligations and other sectoral targets and commitments applying in the electricity supply field. Its main contribution lies on the holistic methodological approach adopted, concerning the discrete electric systems of mainland and insular areas in Greece by proposing a novel way of simulating the potentiality of their submarine interconnection. The present model is applied on a real case study concerning the Greek electricity planning problem for the period 2014–2024, through the elaboration of two alternative evolution scenarios. The underlying objective is multifarious: (a) to deliver the portfolio of new capacity investments, the fuel mix trend, the penetration of renewable energy sources and the progress of achieving country׳s commitments and targets, and (b) to investigate and highlight the potential economic, energy and environmental benefits arising from the electrical interconnection of Greek islands to the main continental power system.     

Energy modelling for the national economy — generalized model based on a physical systems theory approach

This paper presents an approach to the study of the energy related issues of the national economy using physical systems theory concepts for economic and real life systems. The main issues are: the efficiency of various energy conversion and utilization processes in terms of the macro-level technological coefficients; the direct and indirect energy wastes as calculated on the basis of technological coefficients; the effect of energy wastes on the unit cost of energy available to the consumers; the consumption of natural resources based on the final and intermediate demands of various sectors; and the amount of environmental pollution due to energy wastes disposed of to nature. A model is developed for a simplified two-sector national economy which is later extended to a generalized multi-sector model in a branchchord framework. This generalization is a step forward in simplifying the solution methodology for the multi-sector models through substitution, thus avoiding the necessity of drawing a complex system graph or solving large matrices required in the solution methodology.     

Continuous-discrete simulation-based decision making framework for solid waste management and recycling programs

Solid waste produced as a by-product of our daily activities poses a major threat to societies as populations grow and economic development advances. Consequently, the effective management of solid waste has become a matter of critical importance for communities. However, solid waste management systems are inherently large-scale, diverse, and subject to many uncertainties, and must serve numerous stakeholders with divergent objectives. In this study, we propose a simulation-based decision-making and optimization framework for the analysis and development of effective solid waste management and recycling programs. The proposed solution includes a database and two main modules: an assessment module and a resource allocation optimization module. The assessment module identifies the sources of uncertainties in the system, which are then parameterized and incorporated into the resource allocation optimization module. The resource allocation optimization module involves a novel discrete–continuous model of the system under consideration, in which the continuous nature of decision variables is maintained while inherently discrete processing and transfer operations are accurately captured. The model operates with respect to the waste types and characteristics, costs, environmental impacts, types, location and capacities of processing facilities, and their technological capabilities. Then, an optimization mechanism embedded in the resource allocation optimization module solves the multi-criteria problem of the allocation of limited resources by simultaneously optimizing all relevant decision variables, evaluating performance in real-time via the model. Here, the optimum solution is considered as the combination of parameters that will lead to the highest recycling rate with minimum cost. The proposed framework has been successfully demonstrated for the Miami-Dade County Solid Waste Management System in the State of Florida.     

再生资源回收物流网络优化模型与算法研究

再生资源回收利用是发展循环经济的有机组成部分,再生资源回收物流网络规划问题的研究是再生资源回收利用系统运行的前提与基础。在考虑再生资源回收量和需求量波动性的基础上,以最小化回收物流总成本为优化目标,构建具有回收点、回收中心、集散市场和深加工中心或客户的四层级、多品种单周期再生资源回收物流网络规划模型。采用基于回收主体综合处理能力及映射关系的解改进优化策略,设计两阶段启发式算法求解模型。算例表明,提出的模型与算法能有效制定再生资源回收物流网络布局方案,且可推广用于单品种单周期、单品种多周期、多品种多周期的再生资源回收物流网络优化问题。     

Intelligent environmental management for SMEs in manufacturing

Currently environmental management is at the forefront of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), especially in certain sectors where its presence is mandatory in order to operate in business. Although SMEs in certain sectors are catching up on their larger counterparts in reducing their environmental impacts, which are mainly due to supply chain demands, statistics clearly show that the majority of manufacturing SMEs are not incorporating formal environmental management system (EMS) into their businesses. The treatment of SMEs as one homogenous group by research has led to a lack of providing real strategies and tools that SMEs can implement and use. Current strategies are fragmented and seen as piecemeal, requiring adaptation and application to a particular sector by SMEs. SMEs do not have the resources required to research all environmental aspects of their businesses, which is a fundamental part of an EMS. Irish EMS support initiatives have but provided grant assistance in contributing towards the fees of external environmental consultants. As a result the majority of SMEs must rely on the help and assistance of external environmental consultants to assist them in taking account of their environmental impacts. Recent research obtained data on the current practices and experiences of Irish SMEs in areas of manufacturing and environmental management. Results of which, compares with previous research carried out in other European countries, however their significance and weightings differ considerably. Responses obtained regarding waste minimisation, recycling and reuse were positive, however, Irish manufacturing SMEs are falling short of initiating formal environmental management systems and front of pipe technologies. The use of information technology in assisting SMEs manage their environmental impacts holds much potential in providing a complete holistic environmental information management system (EIMS), which is already implemented in larger companies. Initial research has identified and developed proven strategies, solutions and tools from ISO 14001 certified Engineering SMEs, which will be used to form an initial base for an EIMS.     

双层规划下考虑环境侵害的垃圾分拣中心选址研究

针对含有害垃圾分拣任务的垃圾分拣中心选址主从博弈问题,提出具有上层奖励机制的双层规划选址方案。首先,将收集点与有害垃圾处理企业作为回收物流发起方构建上层模型,将分拣中心与回收点作为接收方构建下层模型;其次,上下层均引入因有害垃圾存在而带来的环境侵害成本,考虑奖励等级为决策方案使上下层成本相互制约。最后以遗传算法求解算例,通过与单层双目标模型比较,讨论该双层成本模型的设计机制在成本控制上的优势与不足。