Expert systems and optimization

A problem-solving approach involving the integration of expert systems and optimization techniques is presented. A class of expert systems called tandem expert systems is introduced. Three variants of the tandem expert system, the data-reducing, model-based, and model-modifying expert systems, are explained with examples. It is emphasized that optimization techniques can be used more frequently in future expert systems     

Expert database systems

An overview and some impressions are given of the first conference on Expert Database Systems in Charleston, April 1986.The emphasis in this overview is on the keynote address, the invited lecture and the discussions in the panels, because these were not published in the proceedings.     

Judgmental forecasting with interactive forecasting support systems

With an increasing use of DSS/EIS, managers are often required to process information coming from a variety of sources in making a final decision. However, we have little understanding of the efficiency with which people select and use the multiple pieces of information. This issue was examined under various conditions using a DSS in a forecasting task where multiple items of information were displayed on request in an interactive manner. Results indicate that overall people underacquired information. Moreover, people often selected less-reliable information. This sub-optimal behaviour did not diminish over time (it became worse). But an aggregation DSS was helpful at the task. This suggests that people seemed to have a problem in aggregating multiple pieces of information. It was also found that the independent preparation of an initial forecast improved forecast accuracy significantly. Perhaps, forecasters may prepare the initial forecast independently and use decision aids for the subsequent tasks of the forecasting process.     

Expert systems integrated with information systems

Amongst the users of the AIDA applications there is a rapidly growing interest in the use of expert systems, not as independent systems, but as logical extensions of their already existing information systems. In this paper a prototype system (IDEA) will be described that consists of a set of utilities for the construction of an expert system within the context of an AIDA application. Although IDEA does not excel in sophisticated knowledge representations nor in search strategies (the development of which was not our primary concern) it is able to demonstrate that the facilities provided by AIDA together with the IDEA facilities result in an expert system which is characterized by a high degree of integration with the already operational information system.     

Expert systems development standards

The current state of Expert Systems development standards is explored. Insight on development approaches and the future of the technology is provided.     

Spline-functions for investigating and forecasting systems

An explicit formula of a multivariate B-spline, some useful investigations in the field of linear transformations of independent exponentially distributed random variables, representation of theirs density functions with the help of multivariate exponential spline functions, and their usage are considered. The consideration is illustrated by an appropriate example.     

Expert systems and behavioral decision research

This paper reviews a part of the literature on behavioral decision research (policy capturing, psychophysics of numerical judgments and cognitive illusions) and examines implication for knowledge elicitation in expert systems. The literature on policy capturing demonstrates that simple and compact numerical models of expert knowledge can be built, but that experts are poor in verbalizing the knowledge expressed in them. The psychophysical literature indicates that numerical encoding of expert knowledge may be difficult and biased, but that it has definitive advantages over qualitative elicitation schemes: Numerical encoding forces hard throught, encourages precision, and allows to access a substantial computational apparatus. The literature on cognitive illusions suggests that the expert knowledge one elicits may be an illusion. The review concludes by recommending to use numerical judgments and explicit models by experts where possible, and to decompose the elicitation task in order to avoid cognitive illusions.     

Expert systems with 68000 and lips

A microcomputer language lisp is briefly described for use in highly specialized data handling applications. One advantage of using lisp for expert systems is that the language does not distinguish between data and programs. This is because data is held in lists and the programs are built out of lists. A more sophisticated version of lisp — Cambridge 68000 which has built in interpreter and complier — is described. Two specialized applications are detailed: REDUCE to manipulate algebraic equations and Plant Doctor to diagnose house plant ailments.