美国洪水保险计划分析与启示

洪水保险是一项重要的防洪减灾的非工程性措施,美国的全国洪水计划作为洪水保险的主要部分已有效实施.从联邦政府、保险公司和公众参与的角度入手分析了美国洪水保险模式,介绍了美国洪水保险的对象与赔偿额度和洪水保险费率的确定,简要评析了美国洪水保险计划的效果及作用.结合我国国情,应重视发挥洪水保险制度在洪涝防治中的积极作用,同时提出了对我国洪水风险管理制度体系建立的几点启示.     

论我国巨灾风险证券化

巨灾风险通常是指突然发生的严重灾害或灾难,它将带来巨大的损失,常见的巨灾有地震、洪水和雪灾等。2008年初的南方雪灾以及5月雪上加霜的汶川大地震,2010年的甘肃舟曲发生特大泥石,在承受着巨大损失的同时,我们又重新审视巨灾风险管理体系。巨灾风险作为一种特殊风险虽然不符合大数定律,它的风险管理手段除了传统的再保险,还可以通过保险证券化对风险进行管理。本文首先介绍了巨灾风险的定义及它的特点,介绍了巨灾风险管理手段的两个主要手段为再保险和风险证券化,对两种风险管理手段进行比较;然后介绍了巨灾证券化的一些产品,以及巨灾期权的定价理论;最后针对我国目前开展保险证券化存在的问题,给出了一些相应的建议。     

城市洪水风险管理技术

城市洪水风险管理是一项复杂的系统工程,城市洪水风险是不可避免的,而且随着人类活动的加剧、极端气候事件的发生,城市洪水风险管理的复杂性在增强。从城市洪水灾害的危险性分析、易损性分析和灾情评估三方面介绍了城市洪水风险管理技术,并给出了它们之间关系的基本模型。     

长汀城市建设区洪水淹没风险研究

洪水淹没风险分析是进行城市防洪安全研究、合理布局城市建设用地的主要依据之一。本文基于GIS栅格数据空间分析技术,结合了传统淹没分析方法,使用长汀城市建设区地形和洪水水文数据资料,对研究区在10%、5%、2%三种频率下的洪水淹没风险进行了定量化分析,提出了城市建设用地控制原则,为城市规划中协调城市防洪安全与城市建设用地布局提供了有价值的参考。研究结果显示研究区洪水淹没风险总体上较高,城市已建设区洪水淹没风险高于其他区域。     

BS 8533:2011新开发地区洪水风险评价和管理实施规程

针对新开发地区周边的洪水风险,英国标准协会BSI发布了新标准BS8533:2011《新开发地区洪水风险评价和管理实施规程》。标准给出了英国政府及其委托行政部门的洪水风险管理指南,旨在协助相关人员进行洪水风险分析并采取     

BIM+AR&MR技术在建筑工程施工中的应用

增强现实技术(AR)和混合现实技术(MR)能将虚拟物体与现实实体相互融合,该技术与建筑信息模型(BIM)技术结合,将BIM模型中的数字信息实时叠加在用户的现实世界中,并允许用户与BIM中的模型数据进行交互,成为BIM模型可视化的全新实现手段[1]。以珠海横琴国际金融中心大厦项目为例,介绍了BIM+AR&MR技术在建筑施工中的研究和探索应用。     

一种新的滑坡可视化方法

首次提出了免标定扩充现实技术在滑坡可视化中的应用，论证了基于仿射表示的免标定扩充现实方法及其对滑坡可视化应用的可行性。与传统虚拟现实相比，它具有更强的真实性，大大提高了仿真效率。     

山东省无资料小流域山洪计算研究

以莒县青云庵小流域为研究对象,结合山洪灾害调查资料和河道历史洪痕实测数据,介绍了设计暴雨、净雨、洪水的计算方法,着重研究了各种方法在无资料山丘区小流域设计洪水计算中的应用,并对各方法设计洪水计算成果间和历史洪痕进行了对比,结果表明推理公式法和HEC-HMS模型法相对其他两种方法更为合理。     

基于实时洪水风险图的平原区洪涝灾情统计方法探讨

传统的洪涝灾害灾情调查统计方法效率低,时效性差,成果受人为因素和技术因素影响大,精度往往较低。洪水风险图是描述洪水风险分布、大小的一系列图集,其中淹没水深图可为灾情统计提供较好的基础,尤其实时洪水风险图可为灾情统计提供及时、相对准确、区域间协调的灾情统计成果,为防汛救灾决策提供技术支撑。     

BIM辅助隧道施工方案可视化设计应用分析

进入21世纪以后,我国的经济社会高速发展,高速铁路作为一种安全可靠、高速运输的方式受到了人们的认可与好评,BIM技术是当前建筑领域中一种比较先进的技术,它主要是通过3D数字模型构成,采用三维模型联动的设计方式为施工提供可视化的环境。然后再利用4D仿真环境模拟,将施工设计的流程和方案生动地展现出来,具有较好的应用效果。本文立足于实际,结合行业内的应用效果,对BIM辅助隧道施工设计的可视化应用内容展开研究与分析。     

Design hydrograph and routing scheme for flood mapping in a dense urban area

Definition of flood risk maps is a task to which modern surface hydrology devotes substantial research effort. Their impact on the management of flood-prone, dense, urban areas has increased the need for better investigation of inundation dynamics. The problems associated with the aforementioned topics range from the definition of the design hydrograph and the identification of the surface boundary conditions for the flood routing over the inundation plan, to the choice of the hydrodynamic model to simulate urban flooding. Most of academic and commercial mathematical models, solving the De Saint Venant equations, fail on complex topography. Frequently encountered difficulties concern steep slopes, geometric discontinuities, mixed flow regimes, and initially dry areas. In the present paper, flood routing modelling approaches in urban areas and principles for the definition of the design flood events are outlined. The paper shows how urban flooding can be simulated by a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model that makes use of a network of connected channels and storages to simulate flow, respectively, on the streets and into the building blocks. Furthermore, the paper shows that, when flood hazard is assessed by considering flood extent, water depth and flow velocity, an in-depth analysis of the use of design hydrographs that maximise peak flow or inundation volume is needed.     

The management of urban surface water drainage in England and Wales

Partly in response to the UK flooding events of 2007, a number of reports have recently been produced addressing the legislative, administrative, institutional and structural practices that are required to improve urban surface water management and hence reduce future flooding incidents and associated pollution impacts. This paper addresses the principal barriers to progress that have been identified and how these are likely to be overcome. Improved and integrated organisational structures, process and procedures are required and relationships between flood risk management and water quality need to be addressed at regional, area and local levels as well as legislative clarification on surface water discharges. Nontechnical aspects will need to be supported by new modelling approaches for flood risk prediction at both local and catchment scale with effective communication systems and tools being developed and implemented for full and effective stakeholder participation.     

PLANNING SUPPORT TOOL FOR CHECKING BUILDING FORM LEGALITY WITH AUGMENTED REALITY

In this research, we used Augmented Reality technology to develop a planning support tool (ARPST) which combines virtual building models and building regulations with a real site to effectively check whether design alternatives obey the building regulations or design guidelines, and realizes detection of violations of the building form control regulations under the Building Standards Law of Japan. Through the AR-PST, the users can interact with the building models using mobile devices (such as smart phones and tablets) to further understand design proposals as well as their influence on the environment around the real construction sites to achieve a more reasonable evaluation of them. User experience investigation for this tool was then carried out via questionnaire and interview. The results show that the ARPST has creative functional design and good interactivity which can improve the communication efficiency between designers and users and assist urban planning and design.     

Application of spatial statistics as a screening tool for sustainable flood retention basin management

In the context of climate change and the EU flood directive, this paper analyses and explores sustainable flood retention basins (SFRB) as adaptive structures contributing to water resources management and flood risk control. A dataset of 371 potential SFRB (including many operating reservoirs) characterized by 40 variables have been surveyed across central Scotland. However, the spatial properties of these SFRB, such as water storage (which relates to flooding depth) in different regions, are ambiguous. This paper uses geostatistics on the Scottish dataset. Spatial analysis showed that ordinary kriging, which is a spatial interpolation method, could be successfully applied to estimate numerical values for all key flood control variables everywhere in the study area. Moreover, the probability that certain threshold values relevant to flood control managers were exceeded can also be calculated by using disjunctive kriging. The findings provide an effective screening tool in assessing flood control using SFRB.     

A new experiments-based methodology to define the stability threshold for any vehicle exposed to flooding

A vehicle exposed to flooding, after losing stability, becomes buoyant and may be washed away with potential injuries and fatalities. Such vehicles cause additional disruption to traffic that is already affected by flooding, which may lead to substantial indirect economic impact, especially in urban areas. Therefore, the analysis of the stability of vehicles exposed to flooding is important in order to make decisions to reduce damages and hazards. In this research, based on an experimental campaign that included a range of twelve car models, a new methodology to obtain the stability threshold for any real vehicle exposed to flooding is developed. A stability coefficient (SC_mod) is derived with which the vehicles can be sorted by stability against water flows and their stability functions may be determined. The experiments were conducted with three different model scales (1:14, 1:18 and 1:24) and involved analysis of both friction and buoyancy effects, which made this the most comprehensive research study to date. This methodology enables the definition of a stable area in the flow depth-velocity domain for any real vehicle. A tool is provided that decision-makers in the field of urban flood risk management can employ and after defining a design vehicle they can obtain its corresponding stability threshold.     

Assessing the effects of flood resilience technologies on building scale

The impacts of floods on housing are increasing due to more frequent and severe weather events as well as the ongoing development of settlements in flood-prone areas together with the rising vulnerability of assets at risk. Therefore, the improvement of the resilience properties of buildings to better cope with flooding has become a key issue towards more flood resilient cities in European research in recent years. The implementation of flood resilience technologies (FReT) on the individual property scale provides a previously untapped potential to reduce flood damage to buildings due to insufficient transparency of their effects. To overcome this obstacle, the paper presents a four-step extension of a synthetic approach for flood vulnerability analysis to provide evidence on the potential effects of FReT uptake concerning flood damage mitigation. The proposed approach has been integrated in the GIS-based flood damage simulation model HOWAD to support the assessment of FReT alternatives. The simulation of flood damage to buildings in the case study Heywood, Greater Manchester (United Kingdom) revealed the potential of the extended approach to determine the consequences of FReT implementation on building scale.     

Urban flood disaster management

Disaster management for urban areas is a growing priority owing to factors such as the relentless migration to cities, unplanned development, changing climate, and increasing operational and maintenance costs. New information and communication technologies offer improved opportunities to address these factors. This paper presents and describes the digital city concept as a means of capturing, analysing and applying (digital) information about the city area, its services, and their design and operation. In particular, the functionality of the digital city can be adapted for managing urban flood disasters. The paper highlights the need to manage the urban stormwater cycle integrated with urban planning. Urban flooding should be mitigated by having a judicious mix of both structural and nonstructural strategies, which are selected with the full participation of all stakeholders. The management of urban flooding is illustrated with application to the tropical island of St Maarten.     

Investigative modelling of the flood bypass channel in Kuching,Sarawak, by assessing its impact on the inundations of Kuching-Batu Kawa-Bau Expressway

Flood risks not only include loss of human lives and properties, but also the transportation and communication. One major road in Kuching, the Kuching-Batu Kawa-Bau Expressway is often flooded and interrupted by floodwaters from Sarawak River. The Sarawak State Government had announced to build a flood bypass channel in Sarawak River to mitigate flood under the Ninth Malaysian Plan. This paper is a study on the effects of the structure in the flooding of the mentioned road stretch. The January 2004 event which is locally known as a 100-year flood, was run through a developed river model incorporated with the bypass facilities. The model had indicated a reduction of 53% of flooded road. Similarly, modelling of 10 and 50-year design floods had predicted over 50% of reduction. The bypass channel was said to be able to alleviate the flooding on the major road stretch.     

PLANNING FOR FLOOD RISK IN THE FENS

The fens of eastern England rely on flood defences for their existence, and planning for flood risk has always had a high priority. A new focus was given with the issue of Planning Policy Guidance 25, and this paper presents experience from a Strategic Flood Risk Assessment of South Holland District, in Lincolnshire. The assessment pioneered the examination of fenland flood risk in terms of risk zones related to flood hazard and standard of protection. Methods for evaluating the risk zones are described; they consider flooding from embanked rivers which are subject to tide locking, internal drainage systems, tide level and wave action. The methods would be appropriate for many lowland areas of the UK where conventional flood analysis cannot be used.     

Using building simulation to model the drying of flooded building archetypes

With a changing climate, London is expected to experience more frequent periods of intense rainfall and tidal surges, leading to an increase in the risk of flooding. This paper describes the simulation of the drying of flooded building archetypes representative of the London building stock using the EnergyPlus-based hygrothermal tool ‘University College London-Heat and Moisture Transfer (UCL-HAMT)’ in order to determine the relative drying rates of different built forms and envelope designs. Three different internal drying scenarios, representative of conditions where no professional remediation equipment is used, are simulated. A mould model is used to predict the duration of mould growth risk following a flood on the internal surfaces of the different building types. Heating properties while keeping windows open dried dwellings fastest, while purpose built flats and buildings with insulated cavity walls were found to dry slowest.