应对海平面上升问题的城市土地利用格局 脆弱性多情景模拟评估及应对策略

全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示：1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。     

海平面上升对生态基础设施的影响及适应性对策研究——以深圳市福田区为例

全球气候变化引起的海平面上升给沿海城市自然生态系统带来了影响。和传统的研究方法和理念不同,文章选取具有代表性的深圳福田区作为研究区域,在海平面上升的环境背景下,对研究区进行脆弱性评估、保护设计、生态基础设施综合辨识。通过构建基于地理信息系统的综合模型,整合海平面上升影响模型、物种栖息地模型和生态基础设施辨识模型,提出未来福田区及我国其他沿海城市应对海平面上升的适应性策略：（1）促进沿海生态恢复,构建沿海适应性防护系统;（2）规划线性生态廊道,贯通城市生态基础设施的整体性和连接性;（3）开展海平面上升对中国沿海地区影响评估及适应性规划工作;（4）将海平面上升的影响融入沿海城市和地区的国土空间规划。     

韧性城市视角下海平面上升对沿海城市的影响及对策研究——以厦门市为例

随着全球气候不断变化,海平面上升速率逐渐加快,严重影响着沿海城市的安全与可持续发展,提升沿海城市韧性已经成为其应对气候变化的战略共识。基于韧性城市理论,构建了海平面上升影响分析及韧性评价模式,并以厦门市为例,展开了不同时间情景下的影响分析及韧性评估。结果表明,2030年和2050年在海平面上升的影响下,受灾人口将增加6万人和8万人,受灾建设用地将增加5.1km^2和8.3km^2,受灾道路将增加14.6km和24.0km。同时通过空间评估,明确了不同地区韧性提升的重点。最后针对性地提出了厦门城市韧性提升的策略。     

基于时空矩阵图析土地覆盖演变——以中国珠江三角洲为例

【目的】在快速城市化的三角洲地区，气候变化与土地覆盖演变是高度相关的。因此，图析土地覆盖的演变过程，从而探讨人类活动对城市系统的影响，并评估城市抵抗自然灾害的能力至关重要。【方法】从空间和时间维度系统分析了珠江三角洲（简称珠三角）的土地覆盖演变模式，以揭示土地利用政策对珠三角地区的空间影响，并为应对气候变化和城市可持续发展提出建议。【结果】建立了一种利用R Studio、完全基于开放数据、通过时空矩阵在区域尺度图析土地覆盖演变过程的方法。利用开放的欧洲航天局气候变化倡议土地覆盖图和美国地质勘探局高程地图数据，分析了1992—2015年世界上城市化速度最快的地区之一珠三角的演变模式。通过在相对精细的时间颗粒度上来量化土地覆盖演变模式，揭示了珠三角不同地区对应不同发展阶段的各自变化强度与变化趋势。此外，低海拔海岸带的土地覆盖演变幅度较大，特别容易受到海平面上升、风暴增强等气候变化引发的灾害的影响。【结论】结果表明：2001—2002年，深圳和东莞土地覆盖演变幅度最大，2008年开始呈减小趋势；其他周边城市的土地覆盖年变化幅度具有更加稳定的特征。所提出的时空矩阵可以帮助决策者更好地了解三角洲地区土地覆盖的时空演变，有助于制定针对性的规划战略，以增强脆弱沿海地区的抗灾韧性。     

减缓·适应——应对气候变化的若干规划议题思考

通过对气候变化与城市规划关 系的辨析,阐述了应对气候变化的规划内 涵,构建了应对气候变化的规划研究框 架。从能源利用、交通与土地使用、建筑 设计与管理、水资源管理、固废处理、旧 材料利用等方面提出了减缓气候变化的 若干规划议题;从温度变化、海平面上 升、降雨模式变化、热带风暴等方面提出 了适应气候变化的若干规划议题。提出 将应对气候变化规划与法定规划体系有 机整合,是当前城市规划行业急需解决 的问题。     

新加坡海平面上升应对策略对我国沿海城市发展的启示

本文通过全球气候变化与海平面上升的简要介绍阐述了海平面上升对滨海地区发展的危害。通过对中国海平面上升的变化特征、灾害和应对情况分析,文章指出了从沿海城市的建设和开发的角度,我国目前还没有较为全面的应对策略。文章通过对新加坡在应对海平面上升的策略和措施分析,从风险评估、退让、保护措施和适应措施四个方面总结了新加坡应对海平面上升的城市发展策略。结合新加坡的经验,本文指出中国沿海城市的应该制订出更加精确和先进的包含管理、规划、设计、建设与监管等在内的全周期的应对策略。     

高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略 ——以深圳湾地区为例

气候变化背景下，高密度沿海城市受 到风暴潮和极端降雨引起的洪涝灾害冲击。文 章基于韧性理论构建城市空间洪涝风险指标 体系，制定该评价框架的实施路径；基于水文 软件Mike21、GIS平台及其空间网络分析插件 sDNA，复合“天鸽”台风风暴潮与极端降雨情 景，整合深圳湾地区的路网和土地利用进行危 险性、暴露度、脆弱性和适应能力等多源数据； 通过GIS栅格计算得到各要素层分析及洪涝风 险评价可视化地图，结果显示，潮、洪、涝突破 刚性标准加剧了危险性，高密度城市环境增大了 危险区域的暴露度，路网和土地利用布局具有 一定脆弱性，需完善应急疏散和避难场所规划以增强适应能力；根据评价地图识别高风险片区，从路网和土地利用等城市空间物质要素出发， 提出应对洪涝灾害的适应性规划策略。     

建筑信息

<正>马尔代夫拟建漂浮岛来应对海平面上升全球气候变化引起的海平面上升正日益威胁马尔代夫群岛,这个美丽的岛国未来或将被海水淹     

绿色基础设施城市主义和气候变化

气候变化产生的环境影响：雨水污染加剧、城市洪水、海平面上升和城市热岛效应，已成为全球性问题。绿色基础设施（GI）越来越多地被推广为解决气候变化导致的环境恶化的“灵丹妙药”，尤其是在城市地区。城市本质上为高密度且不透水的空间，仅有少量的绿地来吸收预计增加的降雨量。位于沿海地区的城市容易受到海平面上升的影响，同时，大量的硬质表面会使空气温度的上升加剧。研究认为：可以利用绿色基础设施来改变当前的城市形态以构建应对环境影响的生态韧性。为了实现这一概念，必须将城市视为区域景观的一部分。采用一种基于流域的方法来探索如何用绿色基础设施改善气候变化对环境的影响，并使用推测性案例研究来证明这种方法，表明重新设计的城市形态可以优先安排绿色基础设施，而不会影响建筑项目和房地产投资回报。虽然该研究位于新西兰，但基于流域的方法也适用于中国的城市。     

气候变化影响下国外沿海城市应对海平面上升的景观策略与启示

如何应对全球气候变化引发的海平面上升是沿海城市未来发展需要解决的重要问题之一。基于文献研究和对比分析，梳理海平面上升的影响及国外沿海城市制定的适应性发展框架。结果发现：不同城市景观应对策略方面的探索和研究主要涉及土地利用、防御基础设施建设、自然动态过程及景观技术应用四大方面，不同适应性策略的优劣势和适宜情景具有差异性。研究结果对中国沿海城市未来在制定景观适应性策略、探索景观工程的新技术和新方法以及加强景观风险评估和监测等方面具有借鉴意义。     

革新计划:海平面上升背景下可视化技术在沿海遗产保护领域中的应用

遗产保护和气候变化正在从对立的角度共同作用于当今的建成环境。保护使得过去的状态在未来得以维持, 而气候变化带来的影响则相反。当前者试图延迟可能出现的进程时,后者则会在不知不觉中造成不可逆转的改变。 二者在价值观的冲突中必然会发生交汇。本文探讨了沿海遗产保护与海平面上升之间的冲突;在对于建筑遗产自 身以及对遗产保护概念的既有认知的基础上,就沿海建筑遗产所面临的困境,论证了对这些建筑物可能会采取的 具有先锋性的适应性措施以及再利用方式。本文着重讨论了被海平面上升所威胁的遗产更新的既有保护政策的必 要性,以及可视化技术在这一进程中所发挥的作用,以促使沿海遗产社区提前对此类政策做好准备。     

Multiagent Simulation for Complex Adaptive Modeling of Road Infrastructure Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise

Infrastructure systems in coastal areas are exposed to episodic flooding exacerbated by sea‐level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long‐term resilience of infrastructure to such chronic impacts of sea‐level rise, the present study created a novel complex system modeling framework that integrates: (i) stochastic simulation of sea‐level rise stressors, based on the data obtained from downscaled climate studies pertaining to future projections of sea level and precipitation; (ii) dynamic modeling of infrastructure conditions by considering regular decay of infrastructure, as well as structural damages caused by flooding; and (iii) a decision‐theoretic modeling of infrastructure management and adaptation processes based on bounded rationality and regret theories. Using the proposed framework and data collected from a road network in Miami, a multiagent computational simulation model was created to assess the long‐term cost and performance of the road network under various sea‐level rise scenarios, adaptation approaches, and network degradation effects. The results showed the capabilities of the proposed computational model for robust planning and scenario analysis to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems to sea‐level rise impacts.     

Climate-related uncertainties in urban exposure to sea level rise and storm surge flooding: a multi-temporal and multi-scenario analysis

Climate change-induced sea level rise and intensified storms pose emerging flood threats to global coastal urban areas. While such threats have been mapped, their uncertainties from different climate scenarios and longer planning horizons have yet to be addressed from both an exposure assessment and a stakeholder outreach perspective. Therefore, we chose the highly urbanized San Francisco Bay Area as an example to project its flood areas every 20 years between 2000 and 2100, under 24 varied climate scenarios with two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration levels. We then assessed flood exposure by intersecting the flood areas with demographic and socioeconomic distributions, developed areas, lifeline infrastructures, and emergency responders in low elevation (<10 m) coastal zones. Our median estimates under the low GHG scenarios indicated that 10–38% of the items assessed above are flood-exposed in 2000–2020, with this exposure increasing to 20–54% during 2080–2100. The median estimates under the high GHG scenarios for the same periods are 0–35% and 40–67%, respectively. The expected uncertainties, or standard deviations, of the exposures for a given item assessed above under the low and high GHG scenarios are 1–2% in 2000–2020 and 7–10% in 2080–2100. Despite our modeling capability for a range of climate scenarios over the long term, some stakeholders, particularly those in the private sector, prefer near-term results with lower uncertainties. This implies the need for coastal urban areas to cope with climate-related uncertainties and to focus on the long term when developing strategies and policies for climate change adaptation.     

African Water Cities

The impact of climate change is pronounced in Africa, where coastal cities are now experiencing a significant rise in sea level and increases in rainfall. In Nigeria, 30 per cent of Lagos is already under water. Made up of houses built on stilts, the informal settlement of Makoko in Lagos subsists on logging and fishing. Here, Kunlé Adeyemi of NLÉ explores Makoko as a potential contemporary model for adapting other African cities to the rise in water levels with minimal resources.     

Agro-Pelago: Foodscapes for the Future

What if landscape architects could cultivate the sea to produce food? In the future, rising populations and the demand on resource consumption alongside the crisis of climate change leave agricultural land in coastal areas facing extinction. Across the globe, rising sea levels causes farmland flooded by salt water, unsustainable farming depletes soils, pollinators and crop varieties increase, and as land transforms from arable to urbanized, food security disappears. These worldwide threats present opportunities for landscape architecture to re-envision food landscapes for the future. Presented through an animated and narrated film, Agro-Pelago addresses global food security challenges while implementing local solutions.     

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness massive and rapid changes in land use due to changes in demography, global trade, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Changes in demand for agricultural products and agrarian production structure are likely to have a large impact on landscape quality and the value of natural areas. Most studies address these changes either from a macro-economic perspective focusing on changes in the agricultural sector or from a local perspective by analyzing recent changes in landscapes for small case studies. This paper describes a methodology in which a series of models has been used to link global level developments influencing land use to local level impacts. It is argued that such an approach is needed to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics in Europe. An extended version of the global economic model (GTAP) and an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) are used to calculate changes in demand for agricultural areas at the country level while a spatially explicit land use change model (CLUE-s) was used to translate these demands to land use patterns at 1 km² resolution. The global economic model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments and changes in agricultural and trade policies influencing the demand and supply for land use related products while the integrated assessment model accounts for changes in productivity as result of climate change and global land allocation. The land use change simulations at a high spatial resolution make use of country specific driving factors that influence the spatial patterns of land use, accounting for the spatial variation in the biophysical and socio-economic environment. Results indicate the large impact abandonment of agricultural land and urbanization may have on future European landscapes. Such results have the potential to support discussions on the future of the rural area and identify hot-spots of landscape change that need specific consideration. The high spatial and thematic resolution of the results allows the assessment of impacts of these changes on different environmental indicators, such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity. The global assessment allows, at the same time, to account for the tradeoffs between impacts in Europe and effects outside Europe.