广东省温室气体减排潜力分析与预测

从《联合国气候变化框架公约》的机制与原理出发,对广东省主要温室气体（GHG）排放部门的现状进行了系统分析,并对广东省未来温室气体的排放进行了预测;提出了利用清洁发展机制（CDM）来开展广东省减排温室气体项目的方向,为广东省开展节能环保型项目提供了参考建议。     

The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai

This paper presents a system analysis approach on carbon emission reduction at urban level, taking Shanghai as a case. Shanghai's current carbon emission was analyzed based on survey. The prospective carbon emission of Shanghai in 2010 and 2020 were estimated based on scenarios analysis. The main results are: (1) the primary energy consumption of Shanghai shows a continuously increasing trend in recent decades; (2) the energy consumption for production is where the majority of Shanghai's energy consumption is being used; (3) among the total energy consumed, secondary industry energy consumption occupies the biggest share; (4) computations indicate that Shanghai's current carbon emission steadily increased from 1990 to 2005 and reached 58.05 Mt C-eq in 2005, a factor of two times its 1990 emission; (5) if Shanghai can realistically meet the target of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the carbon emission reduction will reach to 17.26 and 111.04 Mt C-eq in 2010 and 2020, respectively, which represents a reduction of nearly 46% below its current growth trajectory in 2020. Based on these results, three strategic suggestions for developing low-carbon economy in Shanghai have been proposed, which can also be applied to other similar cities in China.     

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China''s electricity sector

With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO₂ emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the “long-range energy alternative planning system” (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO₂ emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030—triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO₂ per year—figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a “self-restraint” reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options.     

Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe

 Due to the growing concern for global warming, the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005–2007), part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points, the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario, electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario.     

Long-term greenhouse gas emission and petroleum reduction goals: Evolutionary pathways for the light-duty vehicle sector

To meet long-term environmental and energy security goals, the United States must reduce petroleum use in the light-duty vehicle fleet by 70% and greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of ten compared to business-as-usual growth projections for the year 2050. A wedge-based approach was used to quantify the scope of the problem in real terms, and to develop options for meeting mid-century targets. Four mitigation mechanisms were considered: (1) improvements in near-term vehicle technologies; (2) emphasis on low-carbon biofuels; (3) de-carbonization of the electric grid; and (4) demand-side travel-reduction initiatives. Projections from previous studies were used to characterize the potential of individual mitigation mechanisms, which were then integrated into a light-duty vehicle fleet model; particular emphasis was given to systemic constraints on scale and rates of change.     

Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020

This study has been created in order to better inform climate policy recommendations for China through the study of emissions reduction potential and mitigation opportunities in the major emission sectors in the country. The LEAP model along with three scenarios has been employed in this study. The study has projected that under all scenarios, China's emissions in major sectors will increase. However, through the current sustainable development strategy and even more aggressive emission reduction policies, an annual average of 201–486 million metric tons (MMT) of emissions could be reduced. The cost analysis shows that opportunities are available to achieve significant additional emission reductions at reasonable rates. Besides the results on mitigation opportunities in each sector, this research also explores sectoral preference when determining policies from different perspectives. This study concludes that China's “unilateral actions” since 2000 should be recognized and encouraged. If further emission reduction were required, sector-based mitigation policies would be a very good option and selecting proper policy-making perspective(s) and identifying the most cost-effective mitigation measures within sector and across sectors would be the key information needed to devise these policies.     

Energy saving and emission reduction: A project of coal-resource integration in Shanxi Province,China

The small or middle coal mines with illegal operations in developing countries or regions can cause bad energy waste and environmental disruption. The project of coal-resource integration in Shanxi Province of China gives a new idea or an approach to energy saving and emission reduction. It is a social- and economic-ecological project. The paper shows the targets of energy saving and emission reduction in Shanxi Province, and analyses the aims, significance, design process and implementation of the integration project. Based on that, the paper discusses the challenges and opportunities the project brings. The analysis shows that the project of coal-resource integration in developing countries or regions can effectively improve mining technologies, collect capital and impel international cooperation and exchange. Finally, the paper analyses the concerns about the future, including the possible problems of implementation period, industrial updating, environmental impact and re-employment. However, the successful integration of coal resources can mitigate energy crisis and climate crisis and promote cleaner production effectively.     

The impact of household behavioral changes on GHG emission reduction in Lithuania

It is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap GHG emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20% of total energy consumption in developed countries. In addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in GHG emission reduction.The aim of the paper is to assess GHG emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption. The review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on GHG emission reduction was performed; the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in Lithuania for two scenarios – baseline and GHG emission reduction scenario including energy saving. GHG emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients. Evaluated GHG emission reduction potential in households was compared with GHG emission reduction potentials in other sectors of Lithuania. Based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed.     

Evaluating the need for economic support policies in promoting greenhouse gas emission reduction measures in the building sector: The case of Greece

During the last decade the CO₂ emissions from the residential and tertiary sectors have been rising continuously. This is cause for concern but also an area to be targeted for emission reduction measures in national action plans. This paper proposes a methodological framework, using the Greek building sector (characterized by an aging building stock constructed mostly in the period before 1980) as a case study for the examination of the economic attractiveness of possible measures, which incorporates crucial parameters such as local climate, use of buildings, age of building stock, etc. that affect the energy conservation potential and consequently the economic performance of available measures. Utilizing this framework, the approach is able to classify measures into three categories, namely ‘win–win’ cases (i.e. where the implementation of emission reduction measures presents a net economic benefit for end-users), measures that require the implementation of appropriate economic support policies in order to make them economically attractive for end-users, and measures that have excessive cost. The results indicate that the emissions reduction potential of ‘win–win’ cases is significant. They also demonstrate how individual measures can provide significant reductions if carefully targeted economic support policies are applied. Finally, sensitivity analyses performed with respect to the discount rate applied indicate that it has a substantial impact on the economic performance of some measures and consequently on the magnitude of the ‘win–win’ potential associated to emissions reduction.     

Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang,China

Cities consumed 84% of commercial energy in China, which indicates cities should be the main areas for GHG emissions reduction. Our case study of Shenyang in this paper shows how a clear inventory analysis on GHG emissions at city level can help to identify the major industries and societal sectors for reduction efforts so as to facilitate low-carbon policy-making. The results showed total carbon emission in 2007 was 57 Mt CO₂ equivalents (CO₂e), of which 41 Mt CO₂e was in-boundary emissions and 16 Mt CO₂e was out-of-boundary emissions. The energy sector was dominant in the emission inventory, accounting for 93.1% of total emissions. Within energy sector, emissions from energy production industry, manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 88.4% of this sector. Our analysis showed that comparing with geographical boundary, setting system boundary based on single process standard could provide better information to decision makers for carbon emission reduction. After attributing electricity and heating consumption to final users, the resident and commercial sector became the largest emitter, accounting for 28.5% of total emissions. Spatial analysis of emissions showed that industrial districts such as Shenbei and Tiexi had the large potential to reduce their carbon emissions. Implications of results are finally discussed.     

Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model

A model is developed that simulates nationwide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of household and building types. Since this model can simulate the energy consumption for each household and building category by dynamic energy use based on the schedule of the occupants’ activities and a heating and cooling load calculation model, various kinds of energy-saving policies can be evaluated with considerable accuracy. In addition, the average energy efficiency of major electric appliances used in the residential sector and the percentages of housing insulation levels of existing houses is predicted by the “stock transition model.” In this paper, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the Japanese residential sector until 2025 are predicted. For example, as a business – as-usual (BAU) case, CO₂ emissions will be reduced by 7% from the 1990 level. Also evaluated are mitigation measures such as the energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation code, reduction of standby power, high-efficiency water heaters, energy-efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of photovoltaic panels.     

Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials

The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30–50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO₂ based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO₂-eq—but with a wide range of 30–60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO₂-eq, still 10–35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.     

Energy conservation and emission reduction policies for the electric power industry in China

Because of China's increasingly limited energy supplies and serious environmental pollution, much attention has been paid to conserving energy and reducing emissions to help the country's economy achieve sustainable development. As the electric power industry is the largest consumer of coal resources in China and also emits high levels of air pollutants each year, the Chinese government has enacted many technical and economic policies for energy conservation and emission reduction in the last few years. These policies are summarized in this paper, along with relevant laws and medium- and long-term plans, all of which address ideas such as adjusting the power generation mix, promoting demand-side management, introducing energy-efficient scheduling, and installing desulfurization units. The paper also assesses the results of these policies by analyzing several key indicators of energy consumption and emissions. The analysis shows that although some progress has been made in conserving energy and reducing emissions, substantial work is still required for China to catch up with developed countries. Some suggestions for future work are provided.     

Intra-union flexibility of non-ETS emission reduction obligations in the European Union

The EU proposal on greenhouse gas emission reduction has 28 targets for 2020: an EU-wide one for CO₂ emissions covered by the European Trading System (ETS), and one target for non-ETS emissions per Member State. Implementation is more expensive than needed. I consider three alternative proposals to reduce costs. In the Irish proposal, Member States can purchase ETS permits to offset excess non-ETS emissions. In the Polish proposal, Member States can sell excess non-ETS emissions in the ETS. In the Swedish proposal, Member States can trade their non-ETS allocations. I compare these alternatives to the default policy (no flexibility outside the ETS) and the cost-effective solution (full flexibility). I calibrate a simple model to the results of the EU impact assessment, which did not disclose all details and made odd assumptions. The non-ETS allocation exceeds the projected emissions for three Member States. The alternative flexibility mechanisms would be used to only a limited extent, but would cut the costs of meeting the target. The Swedish and Polish proposals come closest to the cost-effective solution because of the hot air. The Irish proposal performs best if there are negative surprises in either abatement costs or emissions. The Swedish proposal will become policy.     

Climate change mitigation with integration of renewable energy resources in the electricity grid of New South Wales,Australia

The implementation of climate change mitigation strategies may significantly affect the current practices for electricity network operation. Increasing penetration of renewable energy generation technologies into electricity networks is one of the key mitigation strategies to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Additional climate change mitigation strategies can also contribute to emission reduction thereby supplementing the renewable energy generation participation, which may be limited due to technical constraints of the network. In this paper, the penetration requirements for different renewable energy generation resources are assessed while concurrently examining other mitigation strategies to reduce overall emissions from electricity networks and meet requisite targets. The impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on the demand and generation mix are considered for facilitating the penetration of renewable generation. New climate change mitigation indices namely change in average demand, change in peak demand, generation flexibility and generation mix have been proposed to measure the level of emission reduction by incorporating different mitigation strategies. The marginal emissions associated with the individual generation technologies in the state of New South Wales (NSW) are modelled and the total emissions associated with the electricity grid of NSW are evaluated.     

A comprehensive analysis of China's regional energy saving and emission reduction efficiency: From production and treatment perspectives

Energy and environmental issues have recently aroused increasing interest in China and many approaches are used to evaluate energy and environmental performance. In this paper, a two-stage network DEA framework is applied to evaluate the efficiency of energy saving and emission reduction in China during the period of the eleventh five-year plan, from 2006 to 2010. In this study, economic activities are divided into production and treatment processes. This is different from previous research which generally focused on either environmental efficiency or energy efficiency, omitting the integration of energy and environmental measures. Today, energy saving and emission reduction are both parts of the basic state policy of China and are equally important. The empirical results in this study show that: (i) eastern China has the best energy saving and emission reduction efficiency, performing is better than western and central China. (ii) The efficiency of the production process in central China is better than that in western China while the western area performs better than the central area in term of treatment efficiency. (iii) Integrated efficiency of energy saving and emission reduction of China was relatively stable in the five years and the pollution treatment efficiency maintained a rising trend.     

Evaluation of emission cost of inefficiency in road freight transportation in Turkey

Turkey as a European Union candidate state, signed Kyoto Protocol in 2009, which required reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions. Road freight transportation accounts for a quarter of the emissions from transportation sector, so it is one of the implementation areas for emission reductions. When disaggregate data exist, it is possible to detect inefficiency in freight movements and consequently to quantify emission cost of it in road freight sector. Using roadside axle surveys, this study first described the characteristics of road freight movements in Turkey for the period of 2000–2009. Emission estimations for the same period were presented to form a base for potential emission reduction analyses. The results showed that emission savings could be up to 11% by penalizing empty movements even only in the long haul. However, a policy regarding elimination of only inefficiently loaded movements without targeting reduction of empty runs did not provide significant emission reduction capacity. A scenario of replacing Conventional trucks with Euro IV ones showed significant emission reduction potential, especially for regulated emissions, and it may be the most promising option from application perspective.     

Using biomass for climate change mitigation and oil use reduction

In this paper, we examine how an increased use of biomass could efficiently meet Swedish energy policy goals of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and oil use. In particular, we examine the trade-offs inherent when biomass use is intended to pursue multiple objectives. We set up four scenarios in which up to 400 PJ/year of additional biomass is prioritised to reduce CO₂ emissions, reduce oil use, simultaneously reduce both CO₂ emission and oil use, or to produce ethanol to replace gasoline. Technologies analysed for using the biomass include the production of electricity, heat, and transport fuels, and also as construction materials and other products. We find that optimising biomass use for a single objective (either CO₂ emission reduction or oil use reduction) results in high fulfilment of that single objective (17.4 Tg C/year and 350 PJ oil/year, respectively), at a monetary cost of 130–330 million €/year, but with low fulfilment of the other objective. A careful selection of biomass uses for combined benefits results in reductions of 12.6 Tg C/year and 230 PJ oil/year (72% and 67%, respectively, of the reductions achieved in the scenarios with single objectives), with a monetary benefit of 45 million €/year. Prioritising for ethanol production gives the lowest CO₂ emissions reduction, intermediate oil use reduction, and the highest monetary cost.     

The challenge of meeting Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction targets

In 2007, the Government of Canada announced its medium- and long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction plan entitled Turning the Corner, proposed emission cuts of 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 and 60–70% below 2006 levels by 2050. A report from a Canadian government advisory organization, the National Round Table on Environment and Economy (NRTEE), Achieving 2050: A carbon pricing policy for Canada, recommended “fast and deep” energy pathways to emissions reduction through large-scale electrification of Canada’s economy by relying on a major expansion of hydroelectricity, adoption of carbon capture and storage for coal and natural gas, and increasing the use of nuclear.     

Magnitude and direction of technological transfers for mitigating GHG emissions

This paper discusses the issues of technological transfers aimed at reducing GHG mitigation costs under various assumptions. In a new version of RICE model, we introduce technological transfer mechanism that donors' monetary transfers go to recipients' GHG mitigation. Through such transfer mechanism, we examine the relationships between magnitude/direction of transfers and choice of social welfare weights in the model. Our simulations show that different social welfare weights may lead to significant shifts on magnitudes even directions of technological transfers. The results suggest that proposing policies of technological transfers should be mindful of distributional aspects and modeling assumptions.