The impact of climate change on the European energy system

Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented.Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe.There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts.     

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come.     

Fluctuating renewables in a long-term climate change mitigation strategy

Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected.     

Quantifying the water–energy nexus in Greece

In this paper we provide an assessment of the water–energy nexus for Greece. More specifically, the amount of freshwater consumed per unit of energy produced is determined: for both conventional (lignite, diesel and fuel oil-fired) and advanced (combined operation of gas turbine) thermal power plants in the electricity generation sector; for extraction and refining activities in the primary energy production sector; and for the production of biodiesel that is used as a blend in the ultimately delivered automotive diesel fuel. In addition, the amount of electricity consumed for the purposes of water supply and sewerage is presented. In view of the expected effects of climate change in the Mediterranean region, the results of this study highlight the need for authorities to prepare a national strategy that will ensure climate resilience in both energy and water sectors of the country.     

Review of thermal energy storage for air conditioning systems

Thermal energy storage is very important to eradicate the discrepancy between energy supply and energy demand and to improve the energy efficiency of solar energy systems. Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) is more useful than sensible energy storage due to the high storage capacity per unit volume/mass at nearly constant temperatures. This review presents the previous works on thermal energy storage used for air conditioning systems and the application of phase change materials (PCMs) in different parts of the air conditioning networks, air distribution network, chilled water network, microencapsulated slurries, thermal power and heat rejection of the absorption cooling. Recently, researchers studied the heat transfer enhancement of the thermal energy storage with PCMs because most phase change materials have low thermal conductivity, which causes a long time for charging and discharging process. It is expected that the design of latent heat thermal energy storage will reduce the cost and the volume of air conditioning systems and networks.     

Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands

This study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the Netherlands (latitude 52°30′N). Daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of electricity demand. We hypothesize that the increased use of cooling applications has shifted the temperature dependence of electricity demand upwards in summer months. Our results show significant increases in temperature dependence of electricity demand in May, June, September, October and during the summer holidays. During the period studied, temperature dependence in these months has shifted from negative to positive, meaning that a higher temperature now leads to an increased electricity demand in these months, rather than a decreased demand as observed historically. Although electricity demand in countries with moderate summer temperatures such as the Netherlands generally peaks in winter months and shows a minimum in summer months, this trend may signal the development of an additional peak in summer, especially given the expected climatic change. As power generating capacity may be negatively influenced by higher temperatures due to decreasing process cooling possibilities, an increasing electricity demand at higher temperatures may have important consequences for power generation capacity planning and maintenance scheduling.     

Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures.     

Overview of energy storage systems for storing electricity from renewable energy sources in Saudi Arabia

Renewable power (photovoltaic, solar thermal or wind) is inherently intermittent and fluctuating. If renewable power has to become a major source of base-load dispatchable power, electricity storage systems of multi-MW capacity and multi-hours duration are indispensable. An overview of the advanced energy storage systems to store electrical energy generated by renewable energy sources is presented along with climatic conditions and supply demand situation of power in Saudi Arabia. Based on the review, battery features needed for the storage of electricity generated from renewable energy sources are: low cost, high efficiency, long cycle life, mature technology, withstand high ambient temperatures, large power and energy capacities and environmentally benign. Although there are various commercially available electrical energy storage systems (EESS), no single storage system meets all the requirements for an ideal EESS. Each EESS has a suitable application range.     

Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system

Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load.     

Global wind power development: Economics and policies

Existing literature indicates that theoretically, the earth's wind energy supply potential significantly exceeds global energy demand. Yet, only 2–3% of global electricity demand is currently derived from wind power despite 27% annual growth in wind generating capacity over the last 17 years. More than 95% of total current wind power capacity is installed in the developed countries plus China and India. Our analysis shows that the economic competitiveness of wind power varies at wider range across countries or locations. A climate change damage cost of US$20/tCO₂ imposed to fossil fuels would make onshore wind competitive to all fossil fuels for power generation; however, the same would not happen to offshore wind, with few exceptions, even if the damage cost is increased to US$100/tCO₂. To overcome a large number of technical, financial, institutional, market and other barriers to wind power, many countries have employed various policy instruments, including capital subsidies, tax incentives, tradable energy certificates, feed-in tariffs, grid access guarantees and mandatory standards. Besides, climate change mitigation policies, such as the Clean Development Mechanism, have played a pivotal role in promoting wind power. Despite these policies, intermittency, the main technical constraint, could remain as the major challenge to the future growth of wind power.     

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland,USA

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature–energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.     

Optimized Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies Into Jordan's Power Plant Portfolio

Jordan has experienced a significant increase of peak load and annual electricity demand within the last years due to economic development and population growth. The experienced growth rates are expected to continue during the next decades, making large investments in new power plant capacity necessary. Additionally, when gas supply from Egypt was interrupted several times and crude oil world market prices increased simultaneously, recent years have shown painfully that a power supply exclusively based on fossil fuel imports is subject to a very high risk and can have a strong negative impact on the national budget. Electricity-sector authorities are therefore looking for suitable solutions to keep up with the increasing electricity demand, to make Jordan more independent from fossil fuel imports, and to provide electricity at reasonable prices in the future. This paper presents a methodology for the optimized integration of renewable energy (RE) technologies into Jordan's existing power plant portfolio. The core of the methodology is the mixed integer linear optimization program REMix-CEM, developed at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), which optimizes capacity expansion and unit commitment of RE and conventional power generation technologies simultaneously. After describing Jordan's electricity sector and the available RE resources, the developed methodology and the results are presented. The paper shows that by the year 2022, Jordan could generate at least 47% of its electricity demand by a well-balanced mix of concentrating solar power, utility-scale photovoltaics, and onshore wind power. This scenario would maintain the security of electricity supply, absorb present growth rates of power generation costs, and make Jordan significantly more independent of fossil fuel imports.     

Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change

Existing state-level models relating climate parameters to residential electricity consumption indicate a nominal sensitivity of 2–4% for each degree Celsius increase in ambient temperatures. Long-term climate change will also impact electricity consumption through corresponding increases in the market saturation of air conditioning. In this paper we use air conditioning market saturation data for 39 US cities to develop a generalized functional relationship between market saturation and cooling degree days. The slope of this saturation curve is particularly high for cities that currently have low to moderate saturation. As a result, the total response of per capita electricity consumption to long-term warming may be much higher than previously thought. A detailed analysis of 12 cities in four states shows that for some cities changes in market saturation may be two to three times more important than the role of weather sensitivity of current loads. While actual behavioral response to climate change will be more complicated than that captured in our model of market saturation, this approach provides a new perspective on the sensitivity of space conditioning electricity consumption in the US to climate change.     

Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER,an aggregated energy system simulation model

The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in power systems worldwide, and could also be important in future mitigation strategies. It is therefore important that the electricity sector and the integration of VRE are correctly represented in energy models. This paper presents an improved methodology for representing the electricity sector in the long-term energy simulation model TIMER using a heuristic approach to find cost optimal paths given system requirements and scenario assumptions. Regional residual load duration curves have been included to simulate curtailments, storage use, backup requirements and system load factor decline as the VRE share increases. The results show that for the USA and Western Europe at lower VRE penetration levels, backup costs form the major VRE cost markup. When solar power supplies more than 30% of the electricity demand, the costs of storage and energy curtailments become increasingly important. Storage and curtailments have less influence on wind power cost markups in these regions, as wind power supply is better correlated with electricity demand. Mitigation scenarios show an increasing VRE share in the electricity mix implying also increasing contribution of VRE for peak and mid load capacity. In the current scenarios, this can be achieved by at the same time installing less capital intensive gas fired power plants. Sensitivity analysis showed that greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector in the updated model are particularly sensitive to the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power and the costs of VRE.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system—A case study of Norway

The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier.     

Coal demand and supply outlook to 2000: the influence of fuel choice technology and economics

This paper furnishes an overview of the development status, economic viability, and environmental aspects of a select group of newer coal-burning technologies that are likely to augment or replace today's conventional modes of generating electricity possibly as early as the mid-to-late 1990s. An analysis of current fuel choice economics in the power and industrial sectors is also reviewed, to set the basis for the thermal coal demand and supply outlook to 2000.World thermal coal demand growth is expected to average almost 2.5% per year over this time period, with internationally traded coal rising by 6% annually. However, surplus industry production capacity is expected to persist until about 1990. With the large world-wide reserve base, industry need develop only high-quality, low-cost reserves to compete in the international marketplace.Large-scale coal-mining project management is a key technology that must be mastered in order to be competitive. Exxon's 15 million-tonne, $3 billion Cerrejon development in Colombia is being brought to market on time and within budget, with the help of some advanced project management technology.     

近期我国能源供需形势及趋势展望

2007年上半年,在经济强劲增长的拉动下,能源需求以较快的速度增长,但在各种因素的共同作用下能源供需基本平衡。预计下半年能源生产和消费快速增长的势头难以转变,通过努力,供求依然可实现总体平衡,但节能减排、能源安全和气候变化压力巨大。为此,我们建议,继续加强宏观调控政策,抑制不合理的能源需求,使能源供应与环境协调发展;积极推进电力结构调整,利用价格的杠杆作用合理用电和节电;加强对煤炭行业的调控力度,保障其可持续发展;稳步推行天然气价格改革,促进我国天然气健康快速发展;通过进出口税收政策,合理配置和利用国内外能源资源。     

地板下送风式相变蓄热电采暖系统

提出了一种利用定形相变材料蓄存夜间廉价电热，并能控制放热速率的地板下送风式相变蓄热电采暖系统。可有效利用夜间廉价电并提高室内环境热舒适性，搭建了应用此采暖系统的实验房间，测量了系统和室内空气的温度变化，分析了此采暖方式的使用效果。结果表明，该系统蓄放热性能较好。白天的电热负荷全部转移到夜间低谷电价时段，白天供热量可借送风量调节，冬季采用该系统供暖可满足热舒适的要求。     

Estimation of residential electricity demand function in Seoul by correction for sample selection bias

This paper attempts to estimate the residential electricity demand function in Seoul. To this end, we collected the data from a survey of households in Seoul and employed the bivariate model to rectify the undesirable impacts of non-response data. The results show that the size of family, the size of house, dummy for having a plasma display panel television, dummy for having an air conditioner, and the household's income have positive relationships with the residential electricity demand. On the other hand, electricity price contributes negatively to the residential electricity demand. In addition, the price and income elasticities were estimated as −0.2463 and 0.0593, respectively, implying that residential electricity demand in Seoul is price- and income-inelastic. Such useful information is expected to help policy-makers regulate the residential electricity supply and predict the effect of the price on the residential electricity demand in the future.     

Climate change and electricity consumption—Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?

Climate change affects the need for heating and cooling. This paper examines the impact of gradually warming climate on the need for heating and cooling with an econometric multivariate regression model for five countries in Europe along the south–north line. The predicted changes in electricity demand are then used to analyze how climate change impacts the cost of electricity use, including carbon costs. Our main findings are, that in Central and North Europe, the decrease in heating due to climate warming, dominates and thus costs will decrease for both users of electricity and in carbon markets. In Southern Europe climate warming, and the consequential increase in cooling and electricity demand, overcomes the decreased need for heating. Therefore costs also increase. The main contributors are the role of electricity in heating and cooling, and the climatic zone.