CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries

This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971–2005, except for Russia (1990–2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption–emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption–output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries.     

Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia

This paper applies the co-integration technique and causality test to examine the dynamic relationships between pollutant emissions, energy use, and real output during the period between 1990 and 2007 for Russia. The empirical results show that in the long-run equilibrium, emissions appear to be energy use elastic and output inelastic. This elasticity suggests high energy use responsiveness to changes in emissions. The output exhibits a negative significant impact on emissions and does not support EKC hypothesis. These indicate that both economic growth and energy conservation policies can reduce emissions and no negative impact on economic development. The causality results indicate that there is a bidirectional strong Granger-causality running between output, energy use and emissions, and whenever a shock occurs in the system, each variable makes a short-run adjustment to restore the long-run equilibrium. The average speed of adjustment is as low as just over 0.26 years. Hence, in order to reduce emissions, the best environmental policy is to increase infrastructure investment to improve energy efficiency, and to step up energy conservation policies to reduce any unnecessary waste of energy. That is, energy conservation is expected to improve energy efficiency, thereby promoting economic growth.     

Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil

This paper examines the dynamic relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption, and the output for Brazil during 1980-2007. The Grey prediction model (GM) is applied to predict three variables during 2008-2013. In the long-run equilibrium emissions appear to be both energy consumption and output inelastic, but energy is a more important determinant of emissions than output. This may be because Brazilian unsustainable land use and forestry contribute most to the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. The findings of the inverted U-shaped relationships of both emissions-income and energy consumption-income imply that both environmental damage and energy consumption firstly increase with income, then stabilize, and eventually decline. The causality results indicate that there is a bidirectional strong causality running between income, energy consumption and emissions. In order to reduce emissions and to avoid a negative effect on the economic growth, Brazil should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in energy infrastructure and stepping up energy conservation policies to increase energy efficiency and reduce wastage of energy. The forecasting ability of GM is compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model over the out-of-sample period between 2002 and 2007. All of the optimal GMs and ARIMAs have a strong forecasting performance with MAPEs of less than 3%.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis

This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period 1995–2007. Our empirical results show that CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption, and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions and economic growth are the long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that China's CO₂ emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing CO₂ emissions may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980–2003 in Turkey

There is a multi-dimensional need for studying the energy situation in Turkey and to obtain insight into the development of CO₂ emissions. On the one hand, recent projections of the OECD show that Turkey has a yearly GDP growth potential of over 7%. On the other hand, recent projections of UNDP and World Bank indicate that the level of CO₂ emission is going to rise six-fold by 2025 with respect to the level of emissions in 1990. It is a great challenge to both meet the growth target and keep the CO₂ under control. Thereupon, this paper tries to unfold factors that explain CO₂ emissions by undertaking a complete decomposition analysis for Turkey over the period 1980–2003.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth,the case of Lebanon

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for Lebanon, using monthly data for Lebanon covering the period January 1995 to December 2005. Empirical results of the study confirm the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Lebanon but the existence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth when examined in a bivariate vector autoregression framework with change in temperature and relative humidity as exogenous variables. Thus, the policy makers in Lebanon should place priority in early stages of reconstruction on building capacity additions and infrastructure development of the electric power sector of Lebanon, as this would propel the economic growth of the country.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption,and output in France

This paper examines the dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption, and output for France using cointegration and vector error-correction modelling techniques. We argue that these variables are strongly inter-related and therefore their relationship must be examined using an integrated framework. The results provide evidence for the existence of a fairly robust long-run relationship between these variables for the period 1960–2000. The causality results support the argument that economic growth exerts a causal influence on growth of energy use and growth of pollution in the long run. The results also point to a uni-directional causality running from growth of energy use to output growth in the short run.     

Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.     

CO2 emissions,energy usage,and output in Central America

This study extends the recent work of Ang (2007) [Ang, J.B., 2007. CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy 35, 4772–4778] in examining the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and output within a panel vector error correction model for six Central American countries over the period 1971–2004. In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and emissions.     

Panel estimation for CO2 emissions,energy consumption,economic growth,trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries

This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971–2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run.     

The renewable energy,CO2 emissions,and economic growth: VAR model

This paper provides an empirical analysis of CO₂ emissions and economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and energy consumption over the period 1975–2014 in Germany. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models. The unit root and cointegration tests show that the long-run relationship between CO₂ emissions and its determinants. The empirical results show that the findings do not support the environmental Kuznets curve between real GDP and CO₂ emissions. To estimate the shocks of renewable energy consumptions, the study applies the dynamic test of Impulse Response Function (IRF) under the VAR method. The increasing portion of renewable energy consumption in electricity generation would have no impacts on the environment. However, the hikes of renewable energy sources would incur more cost to electricity producers and shrivel up the growth of economies through the expansionary effect of industry’s consumption and private capital spending in the Germany’s economy.     

Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran

Environmental issues have attracted renewed interest and more attention during recent years due to climatic problems associated with the increased levels of pollution and the deterioration of the environmental quality as a result of increased human activity. This paper investigates the causal relationships between economic growth, carbon emission, and fossil fuels consumption, using the relatively new time series technique known as the Toda-Yamamoto method for Iran during the period 1967–2007. Total fossil fuels, petroleum products, and natural gas consumption are used as three proxies for energy consumption. Empirical results suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP and two proxies of energy consumption (petroleum products and natural gas consumption) to carbon emissions, and no Granger causality running from total fossil fuels consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. The results also show that carbon emissions, petroleum products, and total fossil fuels consumption do not lead to economic growth, though gas consumption does.     

Variables affecting energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the steel industry

Specific energy consumption (SEC) is an energy efficiency indicator widely used in industry for measuring the energy efficiency of different processes. In this paper, the development of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions of steelmaking is studied by analysing the energy data from a case mill. First, the specific energy consumption figures were calculated using different system boundaries, such as the process level, mill level and mill site level. Then, an energy efficiency index was developed to evaluate the development of the energy efficiency at the mill site. The effects of different production conditions on specific energy consumption and specific CO₂ emissions were studied by PLS analysis. As theory expects, the production rate of crude steel and the utilisation of recycled steel were shown to affect the development of energy efficiency at the mill site. This study shows that clearly defined system boundaries help to clarify the role of on-site energy conversion and make a difference between the final energy consumption and primary energy consumption of an industrial plant with its own energy production.     

Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries

This study examines the impact of oil consumption on the economic growth of the MENA countries during the period 1980–2009. The panel model is employed in this study. Based on the cointegration test results, it was found that CO₂ emission, and oil consumption has a long run relationship with economic growth. Moreover, there is also a bi-directional Granger causality between oil consumption, CO₂ emission and economic growth in both the short run and the long run. The results of this study show clearly that oil consumption plays an important role in the economic growth of the MENA countries.     

Towards the hydrogen era using near-zero CO2 emissions energy systems

In this paper, the integration of a solid oxide fuel cell operating at a very high temperature (900–1000 °C, 55–60% efficiency) in a near-zero emission power cycle is presented. A more efficient and powerful hybrid near-zero emission CO₂/O₂ cycle is obtained with a CO₂ release as small as 6 g CO₂/kW h_e. Based on a trade-off analysis, the net efficiency is around 47–48%, similar to a current one-pressure level natural gas fired combined cycle, and the power output (940 kW_e) is increased by 66% compared to the so-called E-MATIANT cycle but currently at a much higher cost than those of other known zero-emission power cycles.     

Energy consumption,prices and economic growth in three SSA countries: A comparative study

In this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub-Saharan African countries, namely South Africa, Kenya and Congo (DRC). We incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate framework. Using the ARDL-bounds testing procedure, we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study. The results show that for South Africa and Kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth. However, for Congo (DRC) it is economic growth that drives energy consumption. These findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned. In the case of Congo (DRC), for example, the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country's economy is not entirely energy dependent. However, for South Africa and Kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long-run energy demand. In the short-run, however, the two countries should explore more efficient and cost-effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem.     

CO2 mitigation costs for new renewable energy capacity in the Mexican electricity sector using renewable energies

Carbon dioxide mitigation costs for the Mexican power sector are calculated in order to compare the business as usual (BAU) scenario, based on natural gas capacity growth, to a transition scenario where electricity generation growth using natural gas after 2007 is replaced by renewable energies (solar, wind, hydro and biomass). The mitigation costs are obtained using the following parameters: natural gas price, discount rate and technological progress. The latter is expressed in terms of the anticipated decrease in capital costs, as reported in electricity generation technological literature. Our results show that when technological progress is considered, CO₂ mitigation costs decrease rapidly from 14 $/tCO₂ (in this paper $ express 1997 US dollars and t means metric tons) to zero when the price of natural gas nears 2.68 $/GJ, (for some readers, it can be useful to know that 1.0 US$1997/GJ is 1.19 US$2001/MMBTU) which is almost the same as the 2002 price. This means that for middle natural gas prices a “no regrets” situation can be achieved. Our results also show that for prices higher than 2.80 $/GJ, the incorporation of the technological progress parameter transforms the transition scenario into a “no regrets” scenario for all the discount rate values considered in this study.     

Prospective on the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the EU cement industry

The cement industry is the third largest carbon emitting industrial sector in the EU. The present work analyses the potential for improvement in the energy efficiency and CO₂ emission reduction for this sector up to 2030. Three scenarios are analysed: baseline scenario (BS) representing the current evolution of the cement sector and two alternative scenarios (AS1 and AS2) studying respectively the sensitivity of fuel prices and CO₂ emission prices. The results for the BS show an improvement in the thermal energy efficiency and the CO₂ emissions per tonne of clinker respectively of 11% and 3.7% in 2030 compared with the level of 2002. However, for AS1 and AS2, these scenarios are insensitive to fuel and CO₂ emission prices, respectively. This can be explained by the fact that a large number of retrofits are economically feasible in the BS, leading to a significant reduction in the thermal energy consumption.     

Environmental and economic benefits resulting from citizens’ participation in CO2 emissions trading: An efficient alternative solution to the voluntary compensation of CO2 emissions

Over the last few months in the emerging and lucrative carbon project market, a growing number of organizations have proposed to offset citizens’ greenhouse gas emissions. The target of these carbon-offset initiatives is to satisfy the increasing demand of individuals wishing to take part in the fight against climate change. In this paper, we review and criticize these carbon-offsetting programs in general terms. We then propose an alternative that, in our opinion, should prove to be a better solution for citizens who are willing to pay for protecting the environment. This alternative is to organize citizens’ participation in carbon emissions trading on a large scale in order to purchase and retire (destroy) CO₂ permits. To do so, a benevolent Regulator or non-governmental organization must correct certain CO₂ emissions market failures; this particularly concerns the high transaction costs, which represent an entry barrier and prevent citizens from purchasing and withholding permits. Based on theoretical findings, we demonstrate that implementing citizens’ participation in emissions trading is an economically efficient and a morally preferable option.     

Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data

This paper estimates the real gross domestic product (GDP) and unrecorded economy for Turkey using the Kalman filter technique. Using different tests, most of the research articles on energy policy investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP for different countries. On the other hand, other studies on climate change try to show the effects of both energy consumption and GDP on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission. Since the unreported economy has an important weight in developing countries where the recorded (or official) GDP suffers from considerable measurement problems, investigation of the relationship between the recorded GDP and energy consumption may lead to biased results. In this paper, the economic variables (GDP, country population) as well as environmental variables (CO₂ emission, forest area) are used in order to estimate GDP, which is an unobserved variable in our model. The results clearly indicate that: first, the true GDP in Turkey, that our model estimates, is higher than the observed (recorded) GDP in the whole period of observation (1973–2003) and the size of unrecorded economy varies between 12 and 30 percent of the observed GDP; second, the gap between the true GDP and the observed GDP has an increasing trend; third, if the change in GDP per primary energy supply is smaller than the change in CO₂ per primary energy supply, then there may exist unrecorded economy.