Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO₂ analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment.     

Non-nuclear,low-carbon,or both? The case of Taiwan

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO₂ emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different carbon and nuclear power policies on CO₂ emissions and the economy. Without a carbon mitigation policy, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO₂ emissions may increase by around 4.5% by 2050 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, the costs of cutting CO₂ emissions are greatly reduced if both carbon sequestration and nuclear expansion were viable. This study finds that converting Taiwan's industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one is crucial to carry out the non-nuclear and low-carbon environment.     

Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang,China

Cities consumed 84% of commercial energy in China, which indicates cities should be the main areas for GHG emissions reduction. Our case study of Shenyang in this paper shows how a clear inventory analysis on GHG emissions at city level can help to identify the major industries and societal sectors for reduction efforts so as to facilitate low-carbon policy-making. The results showed total carbon emission in 2007 was 57 Mt CO₂ equivalents (CO₂e), of which 41 Mt CO₂e was in-boundary emissions and 16 Mt CO₂e was out-of-boundary emissions. The energy sector was dominant in the emission inventory, accounting for 93.1% of total emissions. Within energy sector, emissions from energy production industry, manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 88.4% of this sector. Our analysis showed that comparing with geographical boundary, setting system boundary based on single process standard could provide better information to decision makers for carbon emission reduction. After attributing electricity and heating consumption to final users, the resident and commercial sector became the largest emitter, accounting for 28.5% of total emissions. Spatial analysis of emissions showed that industrial districts such as Shenbei and Tiexi had the large potential to reduce their carbon emissions. Implications of results are finally discussed.     

A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU‐15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO₂ emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO₂ emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO₂ emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ‘weighted’ decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District,Shanghai, China

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO₂ emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO₂ emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO₂ emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO₂ emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.     

Estimating the public’s value of implementing the CO2 emissions trading scheme in Korea

The Korean government set out the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction target as 30% below business-as-usual by 2020. The CO₂ emissions trading scheme (ETS) was initiated in January 2015 to meet this target. We attempt to estimate the public's value of implementing the ETS for CO₂ emissions reduction. We apply the contingent valuation (CV) method using the willingness to pay (WTP) data obtained from a national CV survey of 1000 randomly selected households. The survey was conducted via in-person interviews. Value judgments required of the respondents were within their abilities. The mean WTP to achieve the stated target of CO₂ emissions reduction using ETS is estimated to be KRW 1873 (USD 1.66) per household per month, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. The aggregate national value amounts to KRW 409.2 billion (USD 363.4 million) per year. Thus, even though Korea has no obligations to cut emissions under the Kyoto protocol, the public is willing to bear a financial burden to implement the ETS. If its cost is less than this value, implementing the ETS can be socially profitable. The results of this study can serve as a basis for further policy discussions and decisions.     

Coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG): A solution to China’s energy security and CO2 reduction?

Considering natural gas (NG) to be the most promising low-carbon option for the energy industry, large state owned companies in China have established numerous coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG) projects. The objective of this paper is to use a system approach to evaluate coal-derived SNG in terms of life-cycle energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions. This project examined main applications of the SNG and developed a model that can be used for evaluating energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions of various fuel pathway systems. The model development started with the GREET model, and added the SNG module and an end-use equipment module. The database was constructed with Chinese data. The analyses show when the SNG are used for cooking, power generation, steam production for heating and industry, life-cycle energies are 20–108% higher than all competitive pathways, with a similar rate of increase in life-cycle CO₂ emissions. When a compressed natural gas (CNG) car uses the SNG, life-cycle CO₂ emission will increase by 150–190% compared to the baseline gasoline car and by 140–210% compared to an electric car powered by electricity from coal-fired power plants. The life-cycle CO₂ emission of SNG-powered city bus will be 220–270% higher than that of traditional diesel city bus. The gap between SNG-powered buses and new hybrid diesel buses will be even larger—life-cycle CO₂ emission of the former being around 4 times of that of the latter. It is concluded that the SNG will not accomplish the tasks of both energy conservation and CO₂ reduction.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction potential in secondary production and semi-fabrication of non-ferrous metals

Industrial sector growth in developing countries requires the provision of alternatives to guarantee sustainable development. Improving energy efficiency and fuel switching are two measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in the industrial sector, with natural gas and low-carbon electricity as the most feasible options in the short term. In this work, a linear programming optimization model has been developed to study the potential of energy efficiency improvement and fuel substitution for CO₂ emissions reduction, at national level in the non-ferrous metals industry. The energy resource/end-use device allocation problem in secondary metal production and semi-fabrication has been modeled. Using this model, the particular case of Colombia, where low-carbon electricity is available, has been studied. By improving energy efficiency, energy use and CO₂ emissions can be reduced significantly, 73% and 72%, respectively, at negative costs. Further CO₂ emissions reductions, up to 88%, are possible with fuel switching to low-carbon electricity, increasing the costs for the energy system; however, cost reductions caused by energy efficiency improvement outweigh cost increments of fuel switching. Benefits achieved with fuel substitution using low-carbon electricity can be lost if hydropower is not available; in such a case, efficient natural gas-fired end-use devices are preferable.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach

The demand for transport services is expected to rise, causing the CO₂ emissions level to increase as well. In Malaysia, the transportation sector accounts for 28% of total CO₂ emissions, of which 85% comes from road transport. By 2020, Malaysia is targeting a reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity by up to 40% and in this effort the role of road transport is paramount. This paper attempts to investigate effective policy options that can assist Malaysia in reducing the CO₂ emissions level. An Optimisation model is developed to estimate the potential CO₂ emissions mitigation strategies for road transport by minimising the CO₂ emissions under the constraint of fuel cost and demand travel. Several mitigation strategies have been applied to analyse the effect of CO₂ emissions reduction potential. The results demonstrate that removal of fuel price subsidies can result in reductions of up to 652 ktonnes of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions can be decreased by 6.55%, which would enable Malaysia to hit its target by 2020. CO₂ emissions can be reduced significantly, up to 20%, by employing a combination of mitigation policies in Malaysia. This suggests that appropriate mitigation policies can assist the country in its quest to achieve the CO₂ emissions reduction target.     

A comparative study on the energy policies in Japan and Malaysia in fulfilling their nations’ obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol

Global warming and the associated changes in the world climate pattern have been accepted world wide as the gravest threat to humanity in the 20th century. To mitigate the impacts of global warming, the Kyoto Protocol was established in 1997 with the objective of reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, in particular carbon dioxide (CO₂), by 5.2% below 1990 levels. Developed nations that ratified the Protocol are committed to GHG reduction targets while developing nations are encouraged to reduce GHG emissions on a voluntary basis. Since most of the GHGs emissions come from the energy sector, energy policy plays an important role in fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This year marks the beginning of the commitment period for the 2012 Kyoto Protocol. In this case, it would be worthwhile to compare the energy policies in Malaysia and Japan as these nations move towards fulfilling their obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol; bearing in mind that both countries ratified the Protocol, but that Japan commits a reduction target of 6% while Malaysia bears no obligation. Based on the comparison, recommendations were made on how a developing nation like Malaysia could adopt the policies implemented in Japan to suit local conditions and contribute significantly to GHG reduction.     

Electricity savings and CO2 emissions reduction in buildings sector: How important the network losses are in the calculation?

The increase of CO₂ emissions and the emerging climate change are the most serious environmental problems nowadays and limit economic development. This increase is mainly attributed to the growing world population and the related growth in energy demand, which results in the vast consumption of fossil fuels in the power generation sector. Significant actions for the implementation of energy saving measures have been adopted worldwide for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ calculators have been developed to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures, relating energy to CO₂ emissions. These calculators include in most cases the entire power system. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the role of the electricity networks' losses in the actual CO₂ reduction potential, following the implementation of energy saving measures, in relation to the network's voltage level in which the infrastructure is connected. Buildings are representative due to their volume and to different voltage levels of power supply. The work presented was conducted in the framework of the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme entitled Bottom Up to Kyoto (BUtK), as a part of an evaluation of the CO₂ emissions' reduction potential through energy savings measures in 6 municipalities of EU's New Member States.     

Auditing energy use in cities

`Energy auditing’ as a technique for obtaining a ‘snapshot’ of the energy flows in a city or urban conurbation is discussed in the context of meeting national and international targets for CO₂ emissions abatement. An audit methodology is presented which addresses the key questions: Who needs to be involved in the audit? How should the city or conurbation be divided? What data are required? How might these data be obtained and then analysed? Which are the areas of significant consumption? A basis for setting local targets for reducing future energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is presented. The scope for auditing major cities and conurbations in the United Kingdom is identified with reference to implementing Local Agenda 21 and satisfying CO₂ emissions reduction targets.     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.     

Carbon pricing and the diffusion of renewable power generation in Eastern Europe: A linear programming approach

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the costs for reducing CO₂ emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear programming model. The model takes into account the impact of technology learning and is based on the underlying assumptions of the so-called RAINS model frequently used to assess the potential and the costs for reducing air pollution in Europe. The results based on an exogenously given 15 percent reduction target for CO₂ emissions show that the marginal cost for switching from a carbon-intense fuel to either a low-carbon or to a renewable energy source differs significantly among the countries. The marginal costs range from 4 to 90€ per ton CO₂, and are mainly due to country differences in the availability of renewables, existing technologies and costs. The results also indicate that although it is clear that the Eastern European countries are not homogeneous in terms of CO₂ abatement potential and costs, no general conclusions can be made of the region. This may have important implications for future JI/CDM activities. For instance, risk factors such as policy uncertainty and institutional obstacles may become crucial in determining the future allocation of JI/CDM projects across the region.     

Applying California's AB 32 targets to the regional level: A study of San Diego County greenhouse gases and reduction strategies

This paper presents a summary of a local effort in California to assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and identify potential mitigation measures. Local policymakers in California already have been searching for ways to reduce GHG emissions but it was the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32), which seeks to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, that has provided a framework for regions to evaluate their ability to reduce GHG emissions. We conducted a GHG inventory for the San Diego region from 1990 to 2006, with forecasts to 2020. The region emitted approximately 34 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO₂E) in 2006 from anthropogenic sources, which represents a 17% increase over the 1990 level of 29 MMT CO₂E. Applying a combination of 21 existing or pending state GHG reduction mandates and feasible regional measures we show that the region could achieve the AB 32 target. Although the largest reductions are achieved through state mandates, all measures, including at the local level, will be required to achieve the AB 32 target. Thus local regions retain control over a fairly significant portion of reductions, and remain important actors in the implementation and compliance of state mandates.     

Sectoral CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: Preparing for DOHA 2020

In this study, CO₂ emissions in different sectors in Turkey were examined in order to serve as a foundation for planning future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. These reductions are being planned in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, of which Turkey is a signatory, and which was re-examined by the Doha Climate Change Conference in 2009. For this purpose, variation of the total factor efficiencies of CO₂ emissions per capita for many developed and developing countries including Turkey (35 countries in total) were examined by data envelopment analysis and Malmquist Index approaches. It was aimed to determine the sectors in Turkey that should be the primary foci for reductions of CO₂ emissions and which actions might be taken before Doha 2020 oriented towards reductions in CO₂ emissions in these sectors. Meanwhile, current regulations and perspectives for greenhouse gas plans developed within the scope of Vision 2023 were discussed.     

Emissions of CO2 from road freight transport in London: Trends and policies for long run reductions

Freight transport has been receiving increasing attention in both literature and practice following the growing recognition of its importance in urban transport planning. This paper analyses historical and projected road freight CO₂ emissions in the city of London and explores the potential mitigation effect of a set of freight transport policies and logistics solutions. Findings indicate a range of policies with potential to reduce emissions in the period up to 2050. However, this reduction would appear to only be capable of partly counterbalancing the projected increase in freight traffic. More profound behavioural measures therefore appear to be necessary for London’s CO₂ emissions reduction targets to be met.     

A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO₂ emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO₂ emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO₂ emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO₂ emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO₂ emissions estimation models.     

An innovative indicator of carbon dioxide emissions for developing countries: A study of Taiwan

Ever since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, the issues of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have drawn more and more attention globally. However, the major concern of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce the overall GHG emissions might be inaccessible for most developing countries, which rely heavily on the energy-intensive industries for exports and economic growth. In this study, an innovative indicator of net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which excludes the emissions corresponding to the exports, is proposed to explicitly reveal domestic situations of developing countries. By introducing the indicator of net CO₂ emissions to top five energy-intensive industries in Taiwan, the analysis indicates that the increase in CO₂ emissions from 1999 to 2004 is mostly contributed by the expanded exports rather than the domestic demand. The distinct growth patterns of the apparent and net CO₂ emissions also imply the transformation of the industrial sector. It is expected that, for developing countries, the concept of net emissions may not only serve as a proper interim target during the process of international negotiations over GHG reductions but also highlights the prominence of addressing the emissions from the industrial sector as the top priority.     

A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

In this study, we simulate global CO₂ emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO₂ emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO₂ emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO₂ emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO₂ from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO₂ provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO₂ compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO₂ emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production.