Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

Abatement costs of CO2 emissions in the Brazilian oil refining sector

This study aims at estimating the abatement costs of CO₂ emissions of the Brazilian oil refining sector. For greenfield refineries that will be built until 2030, mitigation options include the modification of refining schemes and efficiency gains in processing units. For existing refineries and those already under construction, only mitigation options based on efficiency gains in processing units are evaluated. The abatement cost of each mitigation option was determined on the basis of incremental costs compared with a reference scenario. Two discount rates were applied: one adopted by the Brazil’s government official long term plan (8% p.a.), and another typically adopted by the private oil sector (15% p.a.). Findings indicate that refineries face high abatement costs. The cost of changing the processing scheme of greenfield plants reaches US$100/tCO₂ at 15% p.a. discount rate. Even at 8% p.a. discount rate the abatement cost is higher than US$50/tCO₂. The most promising alternative is thermal energy management, whose abatement cost equals US$20/tCO₂ at 8% p.a. discount rate. However, private investors perceive this option at US$80/tCO₂, which is still high. This difference in cost indicates the need for public policies for promoting carbon mitigation measures in Brazilian oil refineries.     

Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

China has been the second CO₂ emitter in the world, while the transportation sector accounts for a major share of CO₂ emissions. Analysis of transportation sector CO₂ emissions is help to decrease CO₂ emissions. Thus the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential factors influencing the change of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China. First, the transport sector CO₂ emissions over the period 1985–2009 is calculated based on the presented method. Then the presented LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method is used to find the nature of the factors those influence the changes in transport sector CO₂ emissions. We find that: (1) Transport sector CO₂ emissions has increased from 79.67 Mt in 1985 to 887.34 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 10.56%. Highways transport is the biggest CO₂ emitter. (2) The per capita economic activity effect and transportation modal shifting effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO₂ emissions growth over the study period. (3) The transportation intensity effect and transportation services share effect are found to be the main drivers of the reduction of CO₂ emissions in China. However, the emission coefficient effect plays a very minor role over the study period.     

A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

In this study, we simulate global CO₂ emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO₂ emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO₂ emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO₂ emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO₂ from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO₂ provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO₂ compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO₂ emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Decomposing international polarization of per capita CO2 emissions

The aim of this paper is to analyze the international polarization of per capita CO₂ emissions with exogenous groups based on the Z–K measure (Zhang and Kanbur, 2001), whose main differential advantage lies on its factor-decomposability. In particular, we propose to use the factor decomposition based on Kaya (1989) by applying the methodology suggested by Duro and Padilla (2006). The main empirical results derived can be summarized as follows. First, the international polarization of emissions has significantly decreased over time during the period 1971–2006, when regional sets of nations based on the IEA structure are used; secondly, this decrease can be almost exclusively based on the reduction of the average dissimilarities among sets of countries and not due to a within-group cohesion process. Lastly, this reduction can be mainly attributed to the role of the affluence factor, and to a lesser extent, to the energy intensities. Thus, and given the values achieved for the different components, it seems that further reductions in the international polarization will continue be based on the economic convergence among groups.     

Assessment of CO2 emissions reduction in a distribution warehouse

Building energy use accounts for almost 50% of the total CO₂ emissions in the UK. Most of the research has focused on reducing the operational impact of buildings, however in recent years many studies have indicated the significance of embodied energy in different building types. This paper primarily focuses on illustrating the relative importance of operational and embodied energy in a flexible use light distribution warehouse. The building is chosen for the study as it is relatively easy to model and represents many distribution centres and industrial warehouses in Europe.A carbon footprinting study was carried out by conducting an inventory of the major installed materials with potentially significant carbon impact and material substitutions covering the building structure. Ecotect computer simulation program was used to determine the energy consumption for the 25 years design life of the building. This paper evaluates alternative design strategies for the envelope of the building and their effects on the whole life emissions by investigating both embodied and operational implications of changing the envelope characteristics. The results provide an insight to quantify the total amount of CO₂ emissions saved through design optimisation by modeling embodied and operational energy.     

CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China’s chemical industry

GHG (Increasing greenhouse gas) emissions in China imposes enormous pressure on China’s government and society. The increasing GHG trend is primarily driven by the fast expansion of high energy-intensive sectors including the chemical industry. This study investigates energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the processes of chemical production in China through calculating the amounts of CO₂ emissions and estimating the reduction potential in the near future. The research is based on a two-level perspective which treats the entire industry as Level one and six key sub-sectors as Level two, including coal-based ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda, coal-based methanol, sodium carbonate, and yellow phosphorus. These two levels are used in order to address the complexity caused by the fact that there are more than 40 thousand chemical products in this industry and the performance levels of the technologies employed are extremely uneven. Three scenarios with different technological improvements are defined to estimate the emissions of the six sub-sectors and analyze the implied reduction potential in the near future. The results highlight the pivotal role that regulation and policy administration could play in controlling the CO₂ emissions by promoting average technology performances in this industry.     

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO₂ emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO₂ reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO₂ (LCCO₂) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO₂ emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO₂ emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO₂ emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO₂ emission intensity. The LCCO₂ emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO₂ emissions by the electric power sector. The introduction of FBR has the effect of further reducing CO₂ emissions in the nuclear power sector. Meeting energy demand and reducing CO₂ emissions while phasing out nuclear power appears challenging given its importance in the Japanese energy supply.     

Trade pattern change impact on industrial CO2 emissions in Taiwan

Input–output structural decomposition analysis (I–O SDA) is applied in this paper to analyze the sources of change in industrial CO₂ emissions in Taiwan from 1989 to 2001. Owing to the fact that Taiwan is an export-oriented, trade-dependent economy, the focus is on trade transformation over the past decade and its effect over industrial CO₂ emissions. Change in trade patterns has significantly impacted many aspects of the Taiwan economy, subsequently resulting in various influences on industrial CO₂ emissions, as shown by empirical analysis results. Change in export level increased industrial CO₂ emissions, above all other effects, by 72.1%. However, changes in export mix and import coefficients imposed effects of dragging down industrial CO₂ emissions by 5.7% and 11.7%, respectively.     

CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China

In this paper, CO₂ and pollutant emissions of PCs in China from 2000 to 2005 were calculated based on a literature review and measured data. The future trends of PC emissions were also projected under three scenarios to explore the reduction potential of possible policy measures. Estimated baseline emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, PM₁₀ and CO₂ were respectively 3.16×10⁶, 5.14×10⁵, 3.56×10⁵, 0.83×10⁴ and 9.14×10⁷ tons for China’s PCs in 2005 with an uneven distribution among provinces. Under a no improvement (NI) scenario, PC emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, PM₁₀ and CO₂ in 2020 are respectively estimated to be 4.5, 2.5, 2.5, 7.9 and 8.0 times that of 2005. However, emissions other than CO₂ from PCs are estimated to decrease nearly 70% by 2020 compared to NI scenario mainly due to technological improvement linked to the vehicle emissions standards under a recent policy (RP) scenario. Fuel economy (FE) enhancement and the penetration of advanced propulsion/fuel systems could be co-benefit measures to control CO₂ and pollutant emissions for the mid and long terms. Significant variations were found in PC emission inventories between different studies primarily due to uncertainties in activity levels and/or emission factors (EF).     

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the European glass industry

An in-depth analysis of the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of the European glass industry is presented. The analysis is based on data of the EU ETS for the period 2005–2007 (Phase I). The scope of this study comprises the European glass industry as a whole and its seven subsectors. The analysis is based on an assignment of the glass installations (ca. 450) within the EU ETS to the corresponding subsectors and an adequate matching of the respective production volumes. A result is the assessment of the overall final energy consumption (fuel, electricity) as well as the overall CO₂ emissions (process, combustion and indirect emissions) of the glass industry and its subsectors in the EU25/27. Moreover, figures on fuel mix as well as fuel intensity and CO₂ emissions intensity (i.e. carbon intensity) are presented for each of the subsectors on aggregated levels and for selected EU Member States separately. The average intensity of fuel consumption and direct CO₂ emissions of the EU25 glass industry decreased from 2005 to 2007 by about 4% and amounted in 2007 to 7.8 GJ and 0.57 _tCO₂${\mathrm{t}}_{{\text{CO}}_{\mathrm{2}}}$ per tonne of saleable product, respectively. The economic energy intensity was evaluated with 0.46 toe/1000€ (EU27).     

The future choice of technologies and co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in Bangladesh power sector

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400 PJ to 4898 PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Variables affecting energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the steel industry

Specific energy consumption (SEC) is an energy efficiency indicator widely used in industry for measuring the energy efficiency of different processes. In this paper, the development of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions of steelmaking is studied by analysing the energy data from a case mill. First, the specific energy consumption figures were calculated using different system boundaries, such as the process level, mill level and mill site level. Then, an energy efficiency index was developed to evaluate the development of the energy efficiency at the mill site. The effects of different production conditions on specific energy consumption and specific CO₂ emissions were studied by PLS analysis. As theory expects, the production rate of crude steel and the utilisation of recycled steel were shown to affect the development of energy efficiency at the mill site. This study shows that clearly defined system boundaries help to clarify the role of on-site energy conversion and make a difference between the final energy consumption and primary energy consumption of an industrial plant with its own energy production.     

Determinants of variation in household CO2 emissions between and within countries

Variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries may have important consequences for the equity dimension of climate policies. In this study we aim to identify some determinants of national household CO₂ emissions and their distribution across income groups. For that purpose, we quantify the CO₂ emissions of households in the Netherlands, UK, Sweden and Norway around the year 2000 by combining a hybrid approach of process analysis and input–output analysis with data on household expenditures. Our results show that average households in the Netherlands and the UK give rise to higher amounts of CO₂ emissions than households in Sweden and Norway. Moreover, CO₂ emission intensities of household consumption decrease with increasing income in the Netherlands and the UK, whereas they increase in Sweden and Norway. A comparison of the national results at the product level points out that country characteristics, like energy supply, population density and the availability of district heating, influence variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries.     

Identifying key factors and strategies for reducing industrial CO2 emissions from a non-Kyoto protocol member's (Taiwan) perspective

In this study we use Divisia index approach to identify key factors affecting CO₂ emission changes of industrial sectors in Taiwan. The changes of CO₂ emission are decomposed into emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic growth. Furthermore, comparisons with USA, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and South Korea are made to have a better understanding of emission tendency in these countries and to help formulate our CO₂ reduction strategies for responding to the international calls for CO₂ cuts. The results show that economic growth and high energy intensity were two key factors for the rapid increase of industrial CO₂ emission in Taiwan, while adjustment of industrial structure was the main component for the decrease. Although economic development is important, Taiwan must keep pace with the international trends for CO₂ reduction. Among the most important strategies are continuous efforts to improve energy intensity, fuel mix toward lower carbon, setting targets for industrial CO₂ cuts, and advancing green technology through technology transfer. Also, the clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to play an important role in the future.     

Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China

This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO₂ emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO₂ emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO₂ emissions.     

Potential cost savings from internal/external CO2 emissions trading in the Korean electric power industry

Korea plans to introduce an emissions trading scheme for the controlling greenhouse gas emissions in 2015. Using Shephard's (1970) output distance function, we first estimate the shadow price of CO₂ for power generators in the Korean fossil-fueled electric generation industry. Then, by assuming that each power generator is required to reduce CO₂ emissions by one ton, we compute the potential cost savings from internal trading among generators within the same plant and from external trading across plants at prevailing market prices. The results indicate that, on average, the generators paid $14.63 to abate one ton of CO₂ emissions in 2007. Plants realized additional gains through external trading. In particular, cost savings from trades between different fuel-fired plants were substantial.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from energy use: Turkish case

Environmental problems, especially “climate change” due to significant increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, have been on the agenda since 1980s. Among the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most important one and is responsible for more than 60% of the greenhouse effect. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to changes in CO₂ emissions for the Turkish economy by utilizing Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method developed by Ang (2005) [Ang, B.W., 2005. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide. Energy Policy 33, 867–871]. Turkish economy is divided into three aggregated sectors, namely agriculture, industry and services, and energy sources used by these sectors are aggregated into four groups: solid fuels, petroleum, natural gas and electricity. This study covers the period 1970–2006, which enables us to investigate the effects of different macroeconomic policies on carbon dioxide emissions through changes in shares of industries and use of different energy sources. Our analysis shows that the main component that determines the changes in CO₂ emissions of the Turkish economy is the economic activity. Even though important changes in the structure of the economy during 1970–2006 period are observed, structure effect is not a significant factor in changes in CO₂ emissions, however intensity effect is.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.