Efficiency and effectiveness of promotion systems for electricity generation from renewable energy sources - Lessons from EU countries

Currently, a wide range of strategies is implemented in different countries to increase the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). A still controversial discussion is whether quantity-driven (like Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) based on quotas) or price-driven (like feed-in-tariffs (FIT)) instruments lead to preferable solutions for society. The core objective of this paper is to compare the perspectives of quota-based certificate trading systems for an efficient and effective increase of RES-E with FIT. The major results of this analysis are: (i) The success stories of growth in RES-E in EU member states in recent years has been triggered by FIT implemented in a technology-specific manner at modest costs for European citizens; (ii) At present, TGC systems in most countries applied show a low effectiveness with respect to RES-E deployment of less mature technologies such as solar PV (with improving tendencies in e.g. the UK or Italy with respect to certain technologies); (iii) Compared to short term trading in TGC markets the intrinsic stability of FIT systems appears to be a key element for success; (iv) Hence, currently a well-designed (dynamic) FIT system provides a certain deployment of RES-E in the shortest time and at lowest costs for society.     

基于可再生能源经济调度时序模拟的绿色证书市场交易研究

梳理可再生能源发电商、常规能源发电商与售电公司等交易主体之间的电力、绿色证书供需关系,以各发电商的利益最大化为目标,建立考虑绿色证书的能源经济调度模型,求解消纳保障机制下发电商电力调度及证书交易策略;通过算例分析说明了绿色证书机制提高可再生能源发电商收益的有效性,消纳责任权重对于绿证价格变化、市场力抑制等市场良性运营具...     

Green certificate markets,the risk of over-investment,and the role of long-term contracts

Several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes. The case for a renewable electricity standard (RES) in tandem with a tradeable green certificate (TGC) market has been largely based on efficiency considerations. Case study evidence is inconclusive, in part due to the short track record, but is not generally favorable. Here we reconsider the efficiency case, both static and dynamic, in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects. We find that when exclusively high fixed-cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool, the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets. When low fixed-cost technologies compete alongside high fixed-cost technologies in the certificate market, we show that it is likely that long-term contracts will disappear, and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed-cost technology. We consider evidence from three well-developed certificate schemes—in Britain, Sweden, and Texas—and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here.     

Assessment of the feed-in tariff mechanism for renewable energies in Taiwan

Due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on imported energy, and pursuit of sustainable development, renewable energies are extremely important for Taiwan's future energy supply. Since Taiwan's feed-in tariff (FIT) is still in its initial stage, one must examine whether the current system is compatible with a well-designed FIT scheme. This study examines the main features of Taiwan's FIT system and assesses design options using several criteria. Additionally, one of the most important elements of a FIT scheme, namely, a tariff system, is discussed. Taiwan's FIT scheme has the design options required by well-functioning FITs, and the guaranteed-return tariff system coincides with the spirit underlying leading global FITs; however, many issues, such as setting goals by stages, refinement of the tariff calculation methodology, and elimination of other non-economic barriers, must be addressed to achieve future developmental goals and green industry growth.     

Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries

In the last two decades, feed-in tariffs (FIT) have emerged as one of the most popular policies for supporting renewable electricity (RES-E) generation. A few studies have assessed the effectiveness of RES-E policies, but most ignore policy design features and market characteristics (e.g. electricity price and production cost) that influence policy strength. We employ 1992–2008 panel data to conduct the first econometric analysis of the effectiveness of FIT policies in promoting solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind power development in 26 European Union countries. We develop a new indicator for FIT strength that captures variability in tariff size, contract duration, digression rate, and electricity price and production cost to estimate the resulting return on investment. We regress this indicator on added RES-E capacity using a fixed effects specification and find that FIT policies have driven solar PV development in the EU. However, this effect is overstated without controlling for country characteristics and is concealed without accounting for policy design. We do not find robust evidence that FIT policies have driven wind power development. Overall, we show that the interaction of policy design, electricity price, and electricity production cost is a more important determinant of RES-E development than policy enactment alone.     

Where the wind blows: Assessing the effect of fixed and premium based feed-in tariffs on the spatial diversification of wind turbines

Feed-in tariffs (FIT) are among the most important policy instruments to promote renewable electricity production. The fixed-price FIT (FFIT), which guarantee a fixed price for every unit of produced electricity and the premium based FIT (PFIT), which pay a premium on top of the market price are commonly implemented in the EU. Costs for balancing intermittent electricity production may be significantly higher with FFIT than with PFIT, and FFIT do not provide any incentive to produce electricity when marginal production costs are high. In contrast, PFIT do provide strong incentives to better match renewable power output with marginal production costs in the system. The purpose of this article is to assess the effects of the two tariff schemes on the choice of wind turbine locations. In an analytical model, we show that both the covariance between wind power supply and demand as well as between the different wind power locations matter for investors in a PFIT scheme. High covariance with other intermittent producers causes a decrease in market prices and consequently in revenues for wind power investors. They are therefore incentivized to diversify the locations of wind turbines to decrease the covariance between different wind power production locations. In an empirical optimization model, we analyze the effects of these two different schemes in a policy experiment for Austria. The numerical results show that under a PFIT scheme, (1) spatial diversification is incentivized, (2) the covariance of wind power production with marginal electricity production costs increases, and (3) the variances of the wind power output and of residual load decrease if wind power deployment attains 10% of total national electricity consumption.     

Cost effects of international trade in meeting EU renewable electricity targets

The European market for renewable electricity received a major stimulus from the adoption of the Directive on the Promotion of Renewable Electricity. The Directive specifies the indicative targets for electricity supply from renewable energy sources (RES-E) to be reached in European Union (EU) Member States in the year 2010. It also requires Member States to certify the origin of their renewable electricity production. This article presents a first EU-wide quantitative evaluation of the effects of meeting the targets, using an EU-wide system for tradable green certificates (TGC). We calculate the equilibrium price of green certificates and identify which countries are likely to export or import certificates. Cost advantages of participating in such an EU-wide trading scheme are determined for each of the Member States. Moreover, we identify which choice of technologies results in meeting targets at least costs. Results are obtained from a model that quantifies the effects of achieving the RES-E targets in the EU with and without trade. The article provides a brief insight in this model as well as the methodology that was used to specify cost potential curves for renewable electricity in each of the 15 EU Member States. Model calculations show that within the EU-wide TGC system, the total production costs of the last option needed to satisfy the overall EU RES-E target equals 9.2 eurocent/kWh. Assuming that the production price of electricity on the European power market would equal 3 eurocent/kWh in the year 2010, the indicative green certificate price equals 6.2 eurocent/kWh. We conclude that implementation of an EU-wide TGC system is a cost-efficient way of stimulating renewable electricity supply.     

Examining the financial performance of micro-generation wind projects and the subsidy effect of feed-in tariffs for urban locations in the United Kingdom

This paper seeks to evaluate the effect of the upcoming 2010 UK Feed-in Tariff (UK FIT) on decentralised small wind-energy installations at the household and building level in urban locations. It is projected that the UK FIT will stimulate an unprecedented surge in building-mounted turbine installation. The tariff amount must stimulate incentive but mitigate the likelihood of distortions in the competitive electricity market. To analyse these issues, measured energy output from sites in the Warwick Wind Trials Project (WWTP) is converted into revenue in a net-present-value (NPV) framework for assessing commercial purchases of small wind systems. Variances in project variables are examined through NPV simulations using Monte Carlo analysis to capture permutations of small wind-project performance in the UK—with and without the UK FIT. Our research concludes that the proposed tariff amount of 30.5 p/kWh will not significantly boost the economic attractiveness of mildly selective (WWTP-based) sites in the UK. Furthermore, the fixed-tariff rate (£/kWh generated) could cause inefficiencies applied across uneven wind-resource distribution. The results of this study suggest further examination of policy related to micro-generation, in particular decentralised small wind projects.     

Determinants of green electricity tariff uptake in the UK

A number of countries offer domestic consumers the option of buying their electricity supply through a ‘green tariff’, whereby the supplier typically guarantees that all or part of the supply has been generated using renewable energy sources. Previous studies that have sought to identify variables predicting why consumers choose to purchase a green tariff have utilized surveys specifically about the topic. This study builds on previous work by reviewing the UK market using data from the Understanding Society Survey, a general survey of households which should be free from framing or focalism concerns. In addition, this data includes variables that – to the authors’ knowledge – have not been tested through other work. Results find that individuals in the highest income quartile, those with higher qualifications, those supporting the Green political party, and those exhibiting strong environmental behaviour were all more likely to have purchased green tariffs. Significant to a lesser degree were strong environmental attitudes and those households with some form of renewable energy technology installed.     

On the impact of FIT policies on renewable energy investment: Based on the solar power support policies in China's power market

In 2013, the feed-in tariff (FIT) policy was issued in China to promote the investment in renewable technology, but then it was revised because this policy brought a heavy financial burden to the government. By considering the intermittence of renewable resources, we model the implemented Chinese FIT policies and analyze their impact on renewable energy investment in the power market. The open-loop model is employed to simulate the China's power market organized with Power Purchase Agreement, and the closed-loop game is used to characterize the spot power market. Meanwhile, the strategic capacity choices of power generators in two games are compared under four different policy schemes: (i) free competition, (ii) FIT via fixed subsidy, (iii) FIT via price premium and (iv) Chinese FIT by cross control (CFCC). The results show that the CFCC policy is a good alternative to well control the investment in renewable technology, as it can be seen as a comprise between free competition and FIT via fixed subsidy policy. Furthermore, compared with the other three policy schemes, the CFCC policy is capable of keeping renewable power generators from deviating the equilibrium, which implies higher robustness in regulating the electricity spot market.     

Design of an economically efficient feed-in tariff structure for renewable energy development

Evidence suggests, albeit tentatively, that feed-in tariffs (FITs) are more effective than alternative support schemes in promoting renewable energy technologies (RETs). FITs provide long-term financial stability for investors in RETs, which, at the prevailing market price of electricity, are not currently cost-efficient enough to compete with traditional fossil fuel technologies. On the other hand, if not properly designed, FITs can be economically inefficient, as is widely regarded to have been the case under the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA). Under PURPA, too high a guaranteed price led to the creation of so-called “PURPA machines”—poorly performing generating units that could survive financially only because of heavy subsidies that came at the expense of retail customers. Similarly, because of their adverse impacts on retail electricity rates, German FITs have been subject to increasing political pressure from utilities and customers. In this paper, we propose an innovative two-part FIT, consisting of both a capacity payment and a market-based energy payment, which can be used to meet the renewables policy goals of regulators. Our two-part tariff design draws on the strengths of traditional FITs, relies on market mechanisms, is easy to implement, and avoids the problems caused by distorting wholesale energy markets through above-market energy payments. The approach is modeled on forward capacity market designs that have been recently implemented by several regional transmission organizations in the USA to address needs for new generating capacity to ensure system reliability.     

What drives renewable energy development?

This viewpoint reviews renewable energy development in 14 markets that differ in market structure (restructured vs. not restructured), use of feed-in-tariff (FIT) (yes vs. no), transmission planning (anticipatory vs. reactive), and transmission interconnection cost allocated to a renewable generator (high vs. low). We find that market restructuring is not a primary driver of renewable energy development. Renewable generation has the highest percent of total installed capacity in markets that use a FIT, employ anticipatory transmission planning, and have loads or end-users paying for most, if not all, of the transmission interconnection costs. In contrast, renewable developers have been less successful in markets that do not use a FIT, employ reactive transmission planning, and have generators paying for most, if not all, of the transmission interconnection costs. While these policies can lead to higher penetration of renewable energy in the short run, their high cost to ratepayers can threaten the economic sustainability of renewable energy in the long-run.     

Retail price effects of feed-in tariff regulation

The feed-in tariff regulation is the widest spread instrument used to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources in the EU, with the costs of resources devoted to this promotion usually being borne by final consumers. Two components of the electricity retail price are expected to be influenced by the feed-in tariff regulation: the incentive to those firms producing electricity from renewable energy sources and the wholesale price of electricity. In this study we analyze the effects that the feed-in tariff regulation has on the electricity retail price for industrial consumers. We estimate the relative intensity of the impact of the cost of support electricity generation under the feed-in tariff and the electricity wholesale price on the Spanish industrial retail price. Special attention is devoted to technology-specific considerations, as well as short and long run effects. The results show that there is not a strong link between the retail and wholesale market for Spanish industrial consumers. Moreover, the results indicate that an increase of solar generation leads to a higher increase in the industrial retail price than in the case of a proportional increase of wind generation. This suggests that, when evaluating the feed-in tariff regulation impact on the retail price, the cost of incentives effect prevails over the wholesale price effect, and this is stronger for solar than for wind generation.     

Effects of herding behavior of tradable green certificate market players on market efficiency: Insights from heterogeneous agent model

Tradable green certificate (TGC) scheme promotes the development of renewable energy industry which currently has a dual effect on economy and environment. TGC market efficiency is reflected in stimulating renewable energy investment, but may be reduced by the herding behavior of market players. This paper proposes and simulates an artificial TGC market model which contains heterogeneous agents, communication structure, and regulatory rules to explore the characteristics of herding behavior and its effects on market efficiency. The results show that the evolution of herding behavior reduces information asymmetry and improves market efficiency, especially when the borrowing is allowed. In addition, the fundamental strategy is diffused by herding evolution, but TGC market efficiency may be remarkably reduced by herding with borrowing mechanism. Moreover, the herding behavior may evolve to an equilibrium where the revenue of market players is comparable, thus the fairness in TGC market is improved.     

EU renewable energy support policy: Faith or facts?

The recent EU Commission proposal for promoting the supply of power from renewable energy sources was originally based on a pan-European, harmonised tradable green certificate (TGC) scheme. We suggest, on the basis of a multi-disciplinary analysis, that a pan-EU TGC system is not the way forward for Europe. It is vital that the Commission (and the majority of Member States) avoids implementation of such policy designs put forward by a coalition of vested interests. They should instead look at, and act upon, the available evidence from those countries that have experimented with TGCs (e.g. Flanders, UK and Sweden) and design policies that stand a better chance of meeting the criteria of effectiveness, efficiency and equity. In particular, the policies must enable EU to meet the immense innovation/industrialisation challenge by inducing the development of a capital goods industry that can, eventually, diffuse a broad range of technologies that use renewable energy sources. Only then we can acquire an ability to implement an industrial revolution in the energy system in a way that broadly meets the criteria of effectiveness and dynamic efficiency.     

Tradable white certificate schemes: what can we learn from tradable green certificate schemes?

In this paper, we analyze the experiences gained from tradable green certificate (TGC) schemes and extract some policy lessons that can lead to a successful design of a market-based approach for energy efficiency improvement, alias tradable white certificate schemes. We use tradable green certificate schemes existing in the Netherlands and Sweden as case studies. Departing from an assessment of both TGC schemes, we identify several institutional and market aspects that have affected their performance. We conduct the analysis by addressing key evaluation criteria (i.e., cost and energy effectiveness, administrative burden, technological innovation, political feasibility, and transaction costs). It is not our intention to demonstrate to the reader a normative aspect of designing tradable white certificate schemes. Rather, we identify some key policy lessons which can be summarized as: a binding long-term target must be clearly expressed in terms of policy time frame and certainty, a proper liquid market must be ensured for tradability of certificates, the scheme should be technology neutral, transaction costs should be kept low, and the energy efficiency target should not only address ‘low hanging fruits’ but also promote innovation.

Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development

A comparison of support schemes for market-based deployment of renewable energy in the UK and Germany shows that the feed-in tariff reduces costs to consumers and results in larger deployment. A survey among project developers suggests two explanations: (1) Site selection presents the biggest obstacle under the feed-in tariff. Uncertain financing of other schemes reduces efforts at initial project stages and planning permits become a major obstacle. (2) Project developers do not compete in price but for good sites under the feed-in tariff. Most importantly, turbine producers and construction services contribute to most of the costs, and face at least equal levels of competition under the feed-in tariff.     

Does a small difference make a difference? Impact of feed-in tariff on renewable power generation in China

This study investigates the effectiveness of regionally differentiated feed-in tariffs (FIT) for the development of renewable energy in China. By using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we estimate the impacts of regionally differentiated FITs on the outcome indicators of wind and solar power generation, such as utilization rate, installed capacity, power generation, and hours of operation. Our findings show that FIT implementation plays an important role in promoting renewable energy development. A small difference in the tariff rate leads to statistically significant differences in outcome indicators among regions. Our results suggest that regionally differentiated FITs might help mitigate the overproduction of wind electricity in regions with abundant wind resources but low electricity demand. In addition, we conclude that enlarged tariff gap among regions can lead to greater impact on increasing installations of renewable power generation facilities in resource-poor regions.     

Tail events: A new approach to understanding extreme energy commodity prices

This paper shows that extreme energy price changes, located in the 10% tails of the distribution, cluster across energy futures markets during the boom–bust cycle of 2006 to 2012. Using multinominal logit regressions, we find that the coincidence of such tail events cannot be explained solely by common supply and demand fundamentals. Instead, we provide evidence that the transmission of extreme price changes occurs through a financial demand channel. Specifically, changes in the net long position of hedge funds are associated with a significant increase in the probability of coincident large positive and negative returns across energy markets. Evidence that index investments drive tail events is limited. Further, we identify adverse shocks to speculator funding liquidity as determinant of synchronized price drops across energy markets. The likelihood of extreme negative returns in more than one market significantly increases when the TED spread rises.     

The effect of the feed-in-system policy on renewable energy investments: Evidence from the EU countries

We study the effect of the Feed-in-System (FIS) policy on wind and solar photovoltaic energy investments in the European Union (EU), over the time period between 1992 and 2015, considering the heterogeneity of the policies and market conditions across the EU countries. We develop a FIS subsidy performance indicator that distinguishes feed-in-tariff (FIT) from feed-in-premium (FIP) and considers other important aspects of each of these contracts, such as the duration, tariff price, energy spot price and production costs, as well as the market conditions. We conclude that the mere existence of the FIS policy does not necessarily enhance renewable energy investments, it depends on the type of the FIS contract and its features, and may vary across the different sources of renewable energy. Some of our findings are new to the literature and can have important implications in the development of new public investment incentives to promote renewable energy.