Analysis of CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 3. Brands analysis

This article analyses the engine and vehicle characteristics and CO₂ emissions of the new passenger cars for the thirteen major brands of the European market. As in the first two articles of this work, the target is to find the real market parameters influencing exhaust CO₂ emissions. This analysis is focused on the sales distribution of the major brands, EU average and within each country, and four main parameters of each brand having an impact on CO₂ emissions: average vehicle weight, average engine capacity, average maximum and specific power. The average CO₂ emissions of each brand on the new European driving cycle and its urban and extra urban parts are examined at the last part of this article.     

Analysis of the CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 1. Analysis of general data and analysis per country

Exhaust CO₂ emitted from passenger cars is one of the major greenhouse effect gases. Several parameters influence the exhaust CO₂ emissions of each passenger car: its characteristics (fuel used, vehicle weight, …) and its use (annual mileage, driving conditions, …). CO₂ emissions from passenger cars decrease during last years; however, this decrease seems to reach its limits. Several parameters of the EU15 new PCs market, such as new passenger cars registrations, type of fuel used, engine capacity, max. power, max. specific power, segment distribution, vehicle weight and their CO₂ emissions on the New European Driving Cycle are analyzed here. The target is to find the real market parameters influencing exhaust CO₂ emissions. Because of the many data used and the parameters examined, this first part of the work is focused on the average values of each parameter studied and the values of each country, while the second part is based on the analysis of each PC segment and the third one on the analysis of the major brands presented in the European market.     

CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China

In this paper, CO₂ and pollutant emissions of PCs in China from 2000 to 2005 were calculated based on a literature review and measured data. The future trends of PC emissions were also projected under three scenarios to explore the reduction potential of possible policy measures. Estimated baseline emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, PM₁₀ and CO₂ were respectively 3.16×10⁶, 5.14×10⁵, 3.56×10⁵, 0.83×10⁴ and 9.14×10⁷ tons for China’s PCs in 2005 with an uneven distribution among provinces. Under a no improvement (NI) scenario, PC emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, PM₁₀ and CO₂ in 2020 are respectively estimated to be 4.5, 2.5, 2.5, 7.9 and 8.0 times that of 2005. However, emissions other than CO₂ from PCs are estimated to decrease nearly 70% by 2020 compared to NI scenario mainly due to technological improvement linked to the vehicle emissions standards under a recent policy (RP) scenario. Fuel economy (FE) enhancement and the penetration of advanced propulsion/fuel systems could be co-benefit measures to control CO₂ and pollutant emissions for the mid and long terms. Significant variations were found in PC emission inventories between different studies primarily due to uncertainties in activity levels and/or emission factors (EF).     

Critique of the regulatory limitations of exhaust CO2 emissions from passenger cars in European union

Transport is the second emitter of CO₂ in the European Union, after the energy production sector, with constantly increased trend. European Union proposed the regulation 443/2009 to control the CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars. According to that regulation, the average, for each car manufacturer, CO₂ emissions of the new passenger cars registered in 2020 in European Union should not exceed the value of 95 g CO₂/km on the New European Driving Cycle. In the present work the regulation 443/2009 is analyzed and a critique is addressed to four points. The first point concerns the average upper limit of CO₂ emissions of each car manufacturer. The second point concerns the possible derogation for the low volume manufacturers and the third to the penalties for the extra CO₂ emissions. The fourth point concerns the value of the proposed average upper limit of CO₂ emissions and the possibility to be changed in the future. A change to the above points is proposed. The maximum decrease of CO₂ emissions and the principle of equality of citizens are the two principles of our propositions for the CO₂ regulations.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from passenger cars: The cases of Greece and Denmark

The paper presents a decomposition analysis of the changes in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from passenger cars in Denmark and Greece, for the period 1990–2005. A time series analysis has been applied based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index I (LMDI I) methodology, which belongs to the wider family of index decomposition approaches. The particularity in road transport that justifies a profound analysis is its remarkably rapid growth during the last decades, followed by a respective increase in emissions. Denmark and Greece have been selected based on the challenging differences of specific socio-economic characteristics of these two small EU countries, as well as on the availability of detailed data used in the frame of the analysis. In both countries, passenger cars are responsible for half of the emissions from road transport as well as for their upward trend, which provokes the implementation of a decomposition analysis focusing exactly on this segment of road transport. The factors examined in the present decomposition analysis are related to vehicles ownership, fuel mix, annual mileage, engine capacity and technology of cars. The comparison of the results discloses the differences in the transportation profiles of the two countries and reveals how they affect the trend of CO₂ emissions.     

A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO₂ emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO₂ emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO₂ emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO₂ emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO₂ emissions estimation models.     

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the European glass industry

An in-depth analysis of the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of the European glass industry is presented. The analysis is based on data of the EU ETS for the period 2005–2007 (Phase I). The scope of this study comprises the European glass industry as a whole and its seven subsectors. The analysis is based on an assignment of the glass installations (ca. 450) within the EU ETS to the corresponding subsectors and an adequate matching of the respective production volumes. A result is the assessment of the overall final energy consumption (fuel, electricity) as well as the overall CO₂ emissions (process, combustion and indirect emissions) of the glass industry and its subsectors in the EU25/27. Moreover, figures on fuel mix as well as fuel intensity and CO₂ emissions intensity (i.e. carbon intensity) are presented for each of the subsectors on aggregated levels and for selected EU Member States separately. The average intensity of fuel consumption and direct CO₂ emissions of the EU25 glass industry decreased from 2005 to 2007 by about 4% and amounted in 2007 to 7.8 GJ and 0.57 _tCO₂${\mathrm{t}}_{{\text{CO}}_{\mathrm{2}}}$ per tonne of saleable product, respectively. The economic energy intensity was evaluated with 0.46 toe/1000€ (EU27).     

Decomposing international polarization of per capita CO2 emissions

The aim of this paper is to analyze the international polarization of per capita CO₂ emissions with exogenous groups based on the Z–K measure (Zhang and Kanbur, 2001), whose main differential advantage lies on its factor-decomposability. In particular, we propose to use the factor decomposition based on Kaya (1989) by applying the methodology suggested by Duro and Padilla (2006). The main empirical results derived can be summarized as follows. First, the international polarization of emissions has significantly decreased over time during the period 1971–2006, when regional sets of nations based on the IEA structure are used; secondly, this decrease can be almost exclusively based on the reduction of the average dissimilarities among sets of countries and not due to a within-group cohesion process. Lastly, this reduction can be mainly attributed to the role of the affluence factor, and to a lesser extent, to the energy intensities. Thus, and given the values achieved for the different components, it seems that further reductions in the international polarization will continue be based on the economic convergence among groups.     

Assessment of the impact of the European CO2 emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry

This paper describes an assessment of the impact of the enforcement of the European carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry, based on cost structure, CO₂ emissions, electricity consumption and allocated allowances data from a survey to four Portuguese representative units of the chemical industry sector, and considering scenarios that allow the estimation of increases on both direct and indirect production costs. These estimated cost increases were also compared with similar data from other European Industries, found in the references and with conclusions from simulation studies. Thus, it was possible to ascertain the impact of buying extra CO₂ emission permits, which could be considered as limited. It was also found that this impact is somewhat lower than the impacts for other industrial sectors.     

CO2 emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry: A decomposition analysis

In this study, CO₂ emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry are calculated by using the fuel consumption data at ISIC revision 2, four digit level. Study covers 57 industries, for the 1995–2001 period. Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to decompose the changes in the CO₂ emissions of manufacturing industry into five components; changes in activity, activity structure, sectoral energy intensity, sectoral energy mix and emission factors. Mainly, it is found that changes in total industrial activity and energy intensity are the primary factors determining the changes in CO₂ emissions during the study period. It is also indicated that among the fuels used, coal is the main determining factor and among the sectors, 3710 (iron and steel basic industries) is the dirtiest sector dominating the industrial CO₂ emissions in the Turkish manufacturing industry.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from energy use: Turkish case

Environmental problems, especially “climate change” due to significant increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, have been on the agenda since 1980s. Among the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most important one and is responsible for more than 60% of the greenhouse effect. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to changes in CO₂ emissions for the Turkish economy by utilizing Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method developed by Ang (2005) [Ang, B.W., 2005. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide. Energy Policy 33, 867–871]. Turkish economy is divided into three aggregated sectors, namely agriculture, industry and services, and energy sources used by these sectors are aggregated into four groups: solid fuels, petroleum, natural gas and electricity. This study covers the period 1970–2006, which enables us to investigate the effects of different macroeconomic policies on carbon dioxide emissions through changes in shares of industries and use of different energy sources. Our analysis shows that the main component that determines the changes in CO₂ emissions of the Turkish economy is the economic activity. Even though important changes in the structure of the economy during 1970–2006 period are observed, structure effect is not a significant factor in changes in CO₂ emissions, however intensity effect is.     

CO2 emissions and intersectoral linkages. The case of Spain

This paper proposes a methodology to identify the most relevant productive transactions in terms of CO₂ emissions in the most polluting sectors of an economy and applies this methodology to the Spanish case. Emissions can be related to the CO₂ emissions intensity of sectors (CO₂ intensity factor), to the size of the economy's flows (scale factor), to the input–output productive relationships within an economy (technology-production factor) and to the structure of final demand of different sectors (demand factor). A formal analysis of these factors is carried out by means of an input–output framework combined with a sensitivity analysis. By considering key sectors and relevant transactions in terms of CO₂ emissions, the most effective policy measures aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions can be identified.     

On the way to 130 g CO2/km—Estimating the future characteristics of the average European passenger car

A new average CO₂ emissions limit for passenger cars was introduced in EU in 2009 imposing gradual average CO₂ emissions reduction to 130 g/km until 2015. This paper attempts to study possible changes in vehicle characteristics for meeting this limit taking into account the average European passenger car of 2007–2008. For this purpose first the most important factors affecting vehicle fuel consumption over the reference cycle (NEDC) are identified. At a second step, the CO₂ benefit from the optimisation of these factors is quantified, through simulations of 6 different passenger cars commonly found in the European fleet. For the simulations Advisor 2002 was employed and validated against published type approval data. The analysis indicated that substantial reductions in vehicle weight, tyre rolling resistance and engine efficiency are necessary to reach even the 2008 target. A 10% reduction in average vehicle weight combined with 10% better aerodynamic characteristics, 20% reduced tyre rolling resistance and a 7.5% increase in average powertrain efficiency can lead to CO₂ reductions of approximately 13% (about 138 g/km based on 2007–2008 fleet-wide performance). Complying with the 130 g/km within the next six-year timeframe will be a rather difficult task and additional technical measures appear to be necessary.     

Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China

This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO₂ emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO₂ emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO₂ emissions.     

Determinants of variation in household CO2 emissions between and within countries

Variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries may have important consequences for the equity dimension of climate policies. In this study we aim to identify some determinants of national household CO₂ emissions and their distribution across income groups. For that purpose, we quantify the CO₂ emissions of households in the Netherlands, UK, Sweden and Norway around the year 2000 by combining a hybrid approach of process analysis and input–output analysis with data on household expenditures. Our results show that average households in the Netherlands and the UK give rise to higher amounts of CO₂ emissions than households in Sweden and Norway. Moreover, CO₂ emission intensities of household consumption decrease with increasing income in the Netherlands and the UK, whereas they increase in Sweden and Norway. A comparison of the national results at the product level points out that country characteristics, like energy supply, population density and the availability of district heating, influence variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries.     

Variables affecting energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the steel industry

Specific energy consumption (SEC) is an energy efficiency indicator widely used in industry for measuring the energy efficiency of different processes. In this paper, the development of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions of steelmaking is studied by analysing the energy data from a case mill. First, the specific energy consumption figures were calculated using different system boundaries, such as the process level, mill level and mill site level. Then, an energy efficiency index was developed to evaluate the development of the energy efficiency at the mill site. The effects of different production conditions on specific energy consumption and specific CO₂ emissions were studied by PLS analysis. As theory expects, the production rate of crude steel and the utilisation of recycled steel were shown to affect the development of energy efficiency at the mill site. This study shows that clearly defined system boundaries help to clarify the role of on-site energy conversion and make a difference between the final energy consumption and primary energy consumption of an industrial plant with its own energy production.     

Abatement costs of CO2 emissions in the Brazilian oil refining sector

This study aims at estimating the abatement costs of CO₂ emissions of the Brazilian oil refining sector. For greenfield refineries that will be built until 2030, mitigation options include the modification of refining schemes and efficiency gains in processing units. For existing refineries and those already under construction, only mitigation options based on efficiency gains in processing units are evaluated. The abatement cost of each mitigation option was determined on the basis of incremental costs compared with a reference scenario. Two discount rates were applied: one adopted by the Brazil’s government official long term plan (8% p.a.), and another typically adopted by the private oil sector (15% p.a.). Findings indicate that refineries face high abatement costs. The cost of changing the processing scheme of greenfield plants reaches US$100/tCO₂ at 15% p.a. discount rate. Even at 8% p.a. discount rate the abatement cost is higher than US$50/tCO₂. The most promising alternative is thermal energy management, whose abatement cost equals US$20/tCO₂ at 8% p.a. discount rate. However, private investors perceive this option at US$80/tCO₂, which is still high. This difference in cost indicates the need for public policies for promoting carbon mitigation measures in Brazilian oil refineries.     

Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions

As the most efficient market-based mitigation instrument, carbon tax is highly recommended by economists and international organizations. Countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands and Norway were the first adopters of carbon tax and as such, research on the impacts and problems of carbon tax implementation in these countries will provide great practical significance as well as caution for countries that are to levy the tax. Different from the existing studies that adopt the model simulation approaches, in this article, we comprehensively estimate the real mitigation effects of the five north European countries by employing the method of difference-in-difference (DID). The results indicate that carbon tax in Finland imposes a significant and negative impact on the growth of its per capita CO₂ emissions. Meanwhile, the effects of carbon tax in Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands are negative but not significant. The mitigation effects of carbon tax are weakened due to the tax exemption policies on certain energy intensive industries in these countries. Notwithstanding, in Norway, as the rapid growth of energy products drives a substantial increase of CO₂ emissions in oil drilling and natural gas exploitation sectors, carbon tax actually has not realized its mitigation effects.     

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors (electricity production, electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation) affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in seven countries. These seven countries together generated 58% of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2005. The analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in CO₂ emissions during the period 1990–2005. The generation structure effect also contributed in CO₂ emissions increase, although at a slower rate. In contrary, the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in CO₂ emissions during this period. Over the 2005–2030 period, production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions. Unlike in the past, generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions. However, the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in CO₂ emissions vary from country to country. The analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil-fuel-fired power plants and its associated co-benefits among these countries.