Sustainable development of the Belgrade energy system

Cities are the most important energy consumers of any country in all energy vector components. Nowadays, Belgrade as a cultural, educational, scientific, administrative, political, and business center of the region with its own structure of production, transportation, services, and urban system, represents significant consumer of different energy forms. Only useful and final energy is delivered to energy consuming sectors of a city. Simulation model MAED was used in this paper to estimate energy demand in city for a long time period. On the basis of energy demand forecast for three major ‘energy consumers’ (sectors of household/service, industry, and transportation) until 2020, the sustainable development ‘scenarios’ of Belgrade energy system are developed (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020). For each ‘scenario’, the energy systems of primary resources are determined so to satisfy the predicted differences in energy consumption for the mentioned time intervals until 2020. In this case different ‘scenarios’ are evaluated. The evaluation of ‘scenarios’ sustainability is obtained by method of multi-criteria analysis. Using energy indices for sustainable development, the following indices are taken into consideration for the assessment of scenario sustainability: economical, social, and environmental. The obtained results can be used by experts in decision-making process.     

Impact assessment for a sustainable energy future—Reflections and practical experiences

As energy issues are at the top of the policy agenda worldwide, policy-makers increasingly need better decision-supporting processes to assist them in fostering a sustainable energy future. This paper reflects on the interpretation of sustainable development, and links these reflections with the theory and practice of impact assessment applied on energy issues. An analysis of existing impact assessment approaches with regard to their contribution to sustainable development leads to a set of principles for ‘sustainability assessment’. Through a study of a participatory impact assessment supporting the development of a radioactive waste management plan in Belgium, the interpretational limits of sustainable development in a nuclear energy context are discussed. This paper sheds light on the complex context in which impact assessment exercises must contribute to sustainable energy development, with a focus on the nuclear energy—(un)sustainability nexus.     

North and south: Regional footprints on the transition pathway towards a low carbon,global economy

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints are indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption transformed on the basis of biologically productive land area required per capita with prevailing technology. They represent a partial measure of the extent to which the planet, its regions, or nations are moving along a sustainable development pathway. Such footprints vary between countries at different stages of economic development and varying geographic characteristics. A correlation equation for national environmental footprints is used, alongside international projections of population growth and gross regional income, to estimate the relative contributions of the peoples of the industrialised North and populous South that would be needed in order to secure climate-stabilising carbon reductions out to about 2100. The four so-called ‘marker scenarios’ produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are used to estimate the degree of energy efficiency improvement and carbon mitigation that is feasible. The present footprint projections suggest that a reduction in the consumption of biophysical assets across both the developing and industrialised world is indeed possible. However, the developing world’s footprint is shown to overshoot that of the industrialised countries by around 2010–2015. It then levels out and starts to fall, on the most optimistic scenario, by about 2050. In order to achieve global sustainability in the 21st Century a serious commitment to environmental protection is required in both the industrialised North and the ‘majority South’. That implies balancing population growth, economic well-being, and environmental impacts in the interests of all the people and wildlife on ‘Spaceship Earth’.     

Estonian electricity supply scenarios for 2020 and their environmental performance

Estonia is the only country in Europe with significant environmentally intensive oil shale-based energy production. However, the legal obligations of the EU will make substantial changes over the coming years to current electricity production technology. Increasing the use of alternative energy carriers for responding to future requirements has also been in focus. In this study, three different future electricity supply scenarios for Estonia in 2020 are considered and compared to the situation in 2002. They are based on domestic oil shale, imported natural gas, and imported nuclear power. According to the aims of the national energy policy, renewable energy sources were raised to 10% in all scenarios. Using the LCA methodology, the least damaging impact on the environment occurs in the ‘nuclear scenario’, with nuclear energy as the main energy source. The best scenario, however, depends on the weight or acceptance of accidental releases or other impacts not defined in this context. The ‘Oil shale scenario’ would be a slightly more damaging alternative than the ‘Natural gas scenario’ even if new technical solutions will remarkably improve the environmental performance of oil shale electricity production. Land use and waste disposal are crucial issues, particularly for oil shale and nuclear electricity production. However, the depletion of oil shale is not as critical an issue as the depletion of natural gas and uranium. According to the significance analysis of impact categories, climate change is the most significant impact on the environment in the scenarios. Future decisions on the development of the Estonian energy sector are most likely to be based on technological, economical and political aspects. Political aspects are likely to be the most significant. However, this type of study can give additional value to the discussion due to the increasing role of sustainability in energy issues.     

Climate change,energy security,and risk—debating nuclear new build in Finland,France and the UK

Concerns about climate change and energy security have been major arguments used to justify the recent return of nuclear power as a serious electricity generation option in various parts of the world. This article examines the recent public discussion in Finland, France, and the UK – three countries currently in the process of constructing or planning new nuclear power stations. To place the public discussion on nuclear power within the relationship between policy discourses and contexts, the article addresses three interrelated themes: the justifications and discursive strategies employed by nuclear advocates and critics, the similarities and differences in debates between the three countries, and the interaction between the country-specific state orientations and the argumentation concerning nuclear power. Drawing from documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews, the article identifies and analyses key discursive strategies and their use in the context of the respective state orientations: ‘technology-and-industry-know-best’ in Finland, ‘government-knows-best’ in France, and ‘markets-know-best’ in the UK. The nuclear debates illustrate subtle ongoing transformations in these orientations, notably in the ways in which the relations between markets, the state, and civil society are portrayed in the nuclear debates.     

我国亟需尽快启动快堆核能系统的技术开发

本文概述核能对保障我国能源安全从而促进国民经济可持续发展的重要作用,指出我国的压水堆核电技术从第二代向第三代发展,总体上可以说是“今天”核电产业的技术升级工程。快堆及其燃料闭合循环可以充分利用铀资源和实现核废物的最少化,从而保证核裂变能的可持续发展。作者强调,我国核能科技的发展战略不仅要重视“今天”的核电产业的技术升级,更应着眼于“明天”的核能产业的技术开发。尽快启动我国快堆核能系统的技术开发具有极其重要的战略意义。     

On the contribution of external cost calculations to energy system governance: The case of a potential large-scale nuclear accident

The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in the ExternE project. A careful dissection of the ExternE approach resulted in a list of 30 calculation steps and assumptions, from which the 6 most contentious ones were selected through a stakeholder internet survey. The policy robustness and relevance of these key assumptions were then assessed in a workshop using the concept of a ‘pedigree of knowledge’. Overall, the workshop outcomes revealed the stakeholder and expert panel's scepticism about the assumptions made: generally these were considered not very plausible, subjected to disagreement, and to a large extent inspired by contextual factors. Such criticism indicates a limited validity and useability of the calculated nuclear accident externality as a trustworthy sustainability indicator. Furthermore, it is our contention that the ExternE project could benefit greatly – in terms of gaining public trust – from employing highly visible procedures of extended peer review such as the pedigree assessment applied to our specific case of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident.     

The energy and monetary implications of the ‘24/7’ ‘always on’ society

This paper reviews the trends in society, technology and energy demand of the past 30 years, together with the growth of the ‘on-demand’ culture. The ‘24/7’ or ‘always on’ society can be defined as one where people demand—and generally receive—what they want ‘now’. It has grown up in parallel with developments in information technology, which have produced the services needed to meet that demand. Larger numbers of appliances, resulting from greater affluence and disposable income, have increased energy use, despite energy efficiencies in other areas. While monetary factors suggest that changes brought about by the 24/7 society will generally be self-correcting at the macro-economic level, there will nevertheless be effects for individuals, such as potentially severe impacts on the fuel poor as electricity prices rise.     

An assessment of Turkey’s nuclear energy policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience

Nuclear energy, which was once considered as the fuel of future and was abandoned after Chernobyl accident, has emerged recently in developed and developing countries as an option to combat climate change, to secure supply and to achieve sustainable development. Turkey, a developing country where most of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels and which has energy security problems, has adopted a new legislation giving financial incentives for nuclear power plant construction, along with a tender in 2008. However, the tender ended in a stalemate after the Council of State’s decision in November 2009. An evaluation of Turkey’s nuclear policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience gives us an explanation as to why Turkey failed in the last tender. Basically it was due to lack of a long term nuclear energy policy that comprehends social, economical, technical and political aspects of nuclear energy. Thus, it is argued that Turkey can benefit from nuclear energy if it formulates a comprehensive nuclear energy plan clearly interwoven with its economic development plans, establishes a proper legal framework and has domestic industry participation in nuclear technology development.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city,China

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An ‘Integrated’ scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007–2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.     

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of ‘trend based’, ‘technical feasibility’ and ‘modelling’ studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2×2 axis and the ‘back-casting’ approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, ‘co-evolving’ fashion.     

中国核电工业可持续发展的战略思考

从世界核能发展的趋势和我国核能发展的需求出发,分析了作为一个完整的系统工程,统筹安排和协调发展大型先进压水堆核电站、快堆核电站和相关的燃料循环技术的必要性和可能性,既可使我国核能工业适时赶上世界先进水平,并能保持充足的可持续发展的生命力。     

Energy efficiency—a critical view

This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO₂ emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO₂ policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.     

Restructuring energy systems for sustainability? Energy transition policy in the Netherlands

Increasingly, researchers and policy makers are confronting the challenge of restructuring energy systems into more sustainable forms. A ‘transition management’ model, and its adoption in the Netherlands, is attracting attention. Starting from the socio-technical multi-level theory that informs ‘transition management’, we analyse the ‘energy transition’ project carried out by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. Despite considerable achievements, their approach risks capture by the incumbent energy regime, thereby undermining original policy ambitions for structural innovation of the energy system. This experience presents generic dilemmas for transitions approaches.     

South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of ‘Growth without Constraints’ in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the ‘Growth without Constraints’ (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU).     

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ⁻¹), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ⁻¹). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions.     

Does the Gold Standard label hold its promise in delivering higher Sustainable Development benefits? A multi-criteria comparison of CDM projects

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a twin objective: to help developed countries reduce GHG emissions, and to support developing countries in achieving Sustainable Development (SD). As a response to the widespread criticism of the CDM's unsatisfactory SD record, initiatives have developed premium labels like the Gold Standard, which applies two additional ‘screens’ to filter CDM projects for higher SD benefits. In order to determine whether Gold Standard projects can be associated with higher local SD benefits, this paper evaluates the potential benefits of 48 CDM projects using a multi-criteria method and building on existing work. The 18 evaluated Gold Standard projects are compared to a ‘representative portfolio’ of 30 unlabeled CDM projects in order to capture the ‘full’ effect of the additional Gold Standard requirements, which is further decomposed into the two ‘screen’ effects. The results suggest that Gold Standard Certified Emission Reductions can be associated with higher potential local SD benefits when compared to the ‘representative portfolio’ of unlabeled CDM projects, while the comparison of projects of the same type remains inconclusive. The results support previous findings showing that renewable energy projects may deliver comparatively high SD benefits.     

The emergence and troubled growth of a ‘biopower’ innovation system in Sweden

Biopower, i.e. production of power using biomass, has a tremendous potential to deliver CO₂ neutral energy in the Nordic countries. This paper analyses the evolution of a biopower innovation system in Sweden where particular attention is given to current driving forces and obstacles to a large-scale diffusion of biopower. In the 1980s and 1990s, this innovation system went through a successful ‘formative phase’ in which all the constituent components of the ‘infant’ system emerged. With the introduction of green certificates and emission trading rights, incentives were created that were large enough to shift the system into a ‘growth phase’, where the extensive district heating system and voluminous production in the paper and pulp industry can be used to produce power on a large scale in CHP plants. An investment boom is now underway and output of biopower is rapidly growing. Yet, there are still substantial obstacles to a realisation of the full potential of biopower. Three of these are outlined and an associated set of policy challenges are specified.     

What governs the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy? Articulating the relationship between technologies and political institutions

There is a lack of integrated knowledge on the transition to a sustainable energy system. The paper focuses on the relationship between technologies and institutions in the field of hydrogen from the perspective of political theory. The paper unfolds four paradigms of governance: ‘Governance by policy networking’, Governance by government’, ‘Governance by corporate business’, and ‘Governance by challenge’, and looks into the major line of argument in support of these paradigms and into their possible bias with respect to hydrogen options. Each of these paradigms reveals an institutional bias in that it articulates specific opportunities for collaboration and competition in order to stimulate the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. The paper makes the observation that there is a compelling need to reframe fashionable discourse such as the necessary shift from government to governance or from government to market. Instead, specific questions with respect to the impact of guiding policy frameworks on innovation will highlight that neither ‘neutral’ nor ‘optimal’ frameworks for policy making exist, where competing hydrogen options are at stake. The identification of paradigms of governance maybe considered a methodological device for (participator) policy analysis.     

The global socioeconomic energetic metabolism as a sustainability problem

This paper discusses sustainability problems related to socioeconomic energy flows based upon the societal metabolism approach. Contrary to conventional energy statistics that only include energy used in technical devices, this approach considers all kinds of energy flows related to human societies, including nutritional energy flows of humans and domesticated animals. Based upon human population data and data on the pro capite energy metabolism of hunter-gatherers and agricultural societies as well as on statistical data on industrial energy flows a time series of the global socioeconomic energetic metabolism for the last 10⁶ years and a scenario for the next 50 years is derived. These estimates show that the total energy input of mankind has risen by several orders of magnitude since the Neolithic revolution about 10,000 years ago. Whereas the energy input of agricultural societies prior to the advent of industrial societies about 200–300 years ago did not exceed 5% of global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), humanity's energy input currently amounts to about 30% of global terrestrial NPP and is likely to surpass 50% in about 2050. This shows that the sheer magnitude of human-induced flows is historically unprecedented and poses at least two closely interrelated sustainability challenges: (1) a reduction of energy available to ecosystem processes that can be assessed using the concept of ‘human appropriation of net primary productivity’ and (2) the changes in the global carbon cycle resulting from land-use change and fossil-energy combustion.