Long-term energy scenarios for Mexico: Policy options for carbon savings and main barriers

This paper shows that possibilities exist for maintaining current energy-related carbon emissions per capita in Mexico at almost constant levels in the long term. It is argued, however, that the identified carbon emissions reductions will not be achieved easily or rapidly, as they require a restructuring of Mexico's current technological base and an unusual degree of coordination among the government, lending institutions, equipment manufacturers, and final users. Such changes also will entail surmounting major institutional and financial barriers and creating a better international environment for technology transfer and capital lending.     

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region

In this paper, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to assess 6 policy measures or scenarios relating to residential heating energy and domestic electricity consumption, using an Irish city-region as case study. The analysis was undertaken using a modified version of MCDA based on the NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments) software and involved a decision output based on a mix of qualitative and quantitative assessment, which offered a ranking of options. It was concluded that Scenario 2, which proposes reducing energy and electricity consumption, was the most preferable option and Scenario 3, which proposes increasing the contribution of wood waste, was the least preferable option. This suggests that absolute reduction and demand management should be prioritised over fuel substitution or renewable energy technologies.     

A multi-criteria decision approach to sorting actions for promoting energy efficiency

This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision approach for sorting energy-efficiency initiatives, promoted by electric utilities, with or without public funds authorized by a regulator, or promoted by an independent energy agency, overcoming the limitations and drawbacks of cost–benefit analysis. The proposed approach is based on the ELECTRE-TRI multi-criteria method and allows the consideration of different kinds of impacts, although avoiding difficult measurements and unit conversions. The decision is based on all the significant effects of the initiative, both positive and negative, including ancillary effects often forgotten in cost–benefit analysis. The ELECTRE-TRI, as most multi-criteria methods, provides to the decision maker the ability of controlling the relevance each impact can have on the final decision in a transparent way. The decision support process encompasses a robustness analysis, which, together with a good documentation of the parameters supplied into the model, should support sound decisions. The models were tested with a set of real-world initiatives and compared with possible decisions based on cost–benefit analysis.     

A tool for creating energy market scenarios for evaluation of investments in energy intensive industry

The energy intensive industry can be a major contributor to CO₂ emissions reduction, provided that appropriate investments are made. To assess profitability and net CO₂ emissions reduction potential of such investments, predictions about future energy market conditions are needed. Energy market scenarios can be used to reflect different possible future energy market conditions. This paper presents a tool for creating consistent energy market scenarios adapted for evaluation of energy related investments in energy intensive industrial processes. Required user inputs include fossil fuel prices and costs associated with policy instruments, and the outputs are energy market prices and CO₂ consequences of import/export of different energy streams (e.g. electric power and biomass fuel) from an industrial process site. The paper also presents four energy market scenarios for the medium-term future (i.e. around 2020) created using the tool.     

Supporting energy initiatives in small communities by linking visions with energy scenarios and multi-criteria assessment

Many decisions about future energy systems in small communities are based on the visions of several key actors about the ideal-type system. Although meaningful, such visions may not inclusively represent the objectives of all relevant actors. Moreover, the visions are mostly intuitively judged by these actors and reflect their experiences and concerns. Yet, analytical expertise provides essential information about the required decisions and their consequences. We argue that coming up with a number of alternative visions about a future energy system and addressing these visions from both intuitive and analytical perspectives leads to better-quality decisions. This paper presents a case study in the small Swiss community of Urnäsch, where actors from practice and academia collaborated in a transdisciplinary process to address the future energy system. Visions of these actors about the ideal-type energy system were linked both with energy scenarios that analytically specified options to implement these visions and with stakeholder-based multi-criteria assessment of the consequences. As a result, most of the involved actors adjusted their initial vision preferences. Thus, we believe this approach could lead to capacity building and formation of stable, informed preferences, which are necessary to support a transition in the coming decades.     

An analytical method for the measurement of energy system sustainability in urban areas

Assessing the sustainability of urban energy systems and forecasting their development are important topics that have been the focus of recent research. In this paper, an approach for the measurement the sustainability of an urban energy system is introduced. The approach is based on prediction of the future energy needs within the consuming sectors of a city by specification of energy system development scenarios and validation of the scenarios by a multi-criteria decision method. Prediction of energy needs for the area of the city using the simulation model, model for analysis of the energy demands (MAED) is done. Finish the last level of aggregation, using the method of multi-criteria analysis, is getting the General Index of Sustainability (GIS), which shows a measure of the validity or viability, or quality of the investigated scenarios. In this way, the mathematical and graphical made a synthesis of all the indicators that are relevant to sustainable development. The accuracy in determining the mean of the GIS is checked by calculating the standard deviation. Also, a measure of reliability of the preference when watching a few consecutive scenarios was performed. The defined scenarios take into account the utilization of different energy sources, the exploitation of existing energy plants and infrastructure, and the building of new plants. The sustainability criteria are described by a unique set of economic, social and ecological indicators. The new approach was used to forecast the development of sustainable energy system in Belgrade, Serbia.     

Developing a novel fuzzy neutrosophic numbers based decision making analysis for prioritizing the energy storage technologies

The energy storage plays a fundamental role for sustainable energy systems and potential future economy. The aim of this study is to evaluate and prioritize the energy storage technology alternatives (methods) considering technical, cost, and environmental and social criteria. We propose a hybrid trapezoidal neutrosophic fuzzy numbers based Dombi weighted geometric averaging operator and MultiAtributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) model. A case study in Romania is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. It is also compared with some existing methods to verify the superiority of the proposed model. Six technical storage methods are examined as follows: A₁: Hydro-pumping (HP), A₂: Hydrogen Underground Storage (HU), A₃: Hydrogen “on ground” multiple storage solution (HM), A₄: Hybrid 1 (HP + HU), A₅: Hybrid 2 (HP + HM), and A₆: Hybrid 3 (HU + HM). The results show that the alternative A₄: hydro-pumping and hydrogen underground storage method is the best among all alternatives.     

中国城市新能源发展决策支持指标体系构建及应用

由于我国缺乏有效的城市新能源开发利用指标体系,导致在选择需要优先发展的城市新能源领域以及开发排序方面一直存在不同的意见与观点,不利于科学决策。文章通过城市新能源对城市的经济、社会、环境和政府财政负担4个方面的影响,选取了8项城市影响因子,并根据我国国情引用层次分析法建立了城市新能源发展决策支撑指标体系。在泰安市新能源城市规划中运用此指标体系,根据泰安市的城市定位、发展目标、城市特色给出泰安市的新能源发展建议。     

Transforming cities towards sustainable low-carbon energy systems using emergy synthesis for support in decision making

Recognized as implementation actors of operative measures for transition towards a low carbon economy, cities must establish a development roadmap integrating local resources with local energy development plans. A systematic approach does not exist yet and cities develop their plans individually, which is difficult for small and medium sized cities due to limited development capacities. Conventional city planning approaches do not integrate considerations on energy, economy and environment in transition plans in an easily comparable way, yet making decisions with regards to these parameters is vital to determine outcomes of planned developments on future sustainability of the city.The paper presents a framework model based on emergy synthesis which integrates energy, economic and environmental city systems in the decision making process, examining associated theoretical challenges and application limitations. The method is applied on the city of Sisak in Croatia which has developed plans to implement several initiatives geared towards creating a smart energy city. The model enables simulation and assessment of impacts of individual projects targeting the development of a smart energy city on city sustainability expressed through emergy performance, used as a tool for evaluating local development alternatives within the boundary of local resources.     

Market perspectives of stationary fuel cells in a sustainable energy supply system—long-term scenarios for Germany

Because of high efficiency, low environmental impacts and a potential role in transforming our energy system into a hydrogen economy, fuel cells are often considered as a key technology for a sustainable energy supply. However, the future framing conditions under which stationary fuel cells have to prove their technical and economic competitiveness are most likely characterised by a reduced demand for space heating, and a growing contribution of renewable energy sources to heat and electricity supply, which both directly limit the potential for combined heat and power generation, and thus also for fuel cells. Taking Germany as a case study, this paper explores the market potential of stationary fuel cells under the structural changes of the energy demand and supply system required to achieve a sustainable energy supply. Results indicate that among the scenarios analysed it is in particular a strategy oriented towards ambitious CO₂-reduction targets, which due to its changes in the supply structure is in a position to mobilise a market potential that might be large enough for a successful fuel cell commercialisation. However, under the conditions of a business-as-usual trajectory the sales targets of fuel cell manufacturers cannot be met.     

Spatial development of hydrogen economy in a low-carbon UK energy system

Hydrogen technologies and infrastructures might play a significant role in meeting ambitious climate and energy policy goals of the UK Government. Nonetheless, studies on hydrogen are either limited in scope in that they do not take into account the relationships with the wider energy system drivers and constraints or do not consider how a hydrogen network might develop geographically. This paper presents a framework where a spatially explicit hydrogen module is embedded in the UK MARKAL Energy System model to explore energy system trade-offs for the production, delivery and use of hydrogen at the sub-national level. A set of illustrative scenarios highlight the competitiveness of hydrogen related infrastructures and technologies as well as imported liquid hydrogen against a stringent emissions reduction target; the effect of emissions reduction trajectory on the development of hydrogen network; the intense resource competition between low carbon hydrogen production and electricity generation, and the importance of economies of scale in hydrogen supply and distribution.     

A decision support system for planning biomass-based energy production

Environmental decision support systems (EDSS) are recognized as valuable tools for environmental planning and management. In this paper, a geographic information system (GIS)-based EDSS for the optimal planning of forest biomass use for energy production is presented. A user-friendly interface allows the creation of Scenarios and the running of the developed decision and environmental models. In particular, the optimization model regards decisions over a long-term period (e.g. years) and includes decision variables related to plant locations, conversion processes (pyrolisis, gasification, combustion), harvested biomass. Moreover, different energy products and different definitions of the harvesting and pre-treatment operations are taken into account. The correct management of the forest is considered through specific constraints, security factors, and procedures for parcel selection. The EDSS features and capabilities are described in detail, with specific reference to a case study. Discussion and further research are reported.     

Sustainability assessment tool for the decision making in selection of energy system—Bosnian case

In this paper the multi-criteria sustainability assessment of various options of the energy power system of the JP Elektroprivreda of Bosnia and Herzegovina is performed. The rehabilitation of a 110 MW Thermal Power Unit is compared with other options, such as: a thermal power unit with a coal-fueled boiler with combustion in fluidized bed; combined cycle gas turbine plants; hydropower plant, power plants based on solar energy (photovoltaic [PV] systems); wind turbines; and biomass power plants. The assessment methodology comprise a system of stochastic models of uncertainty, enabling decision makers to perform the assessment of various systems, as well as to obtain normalization indexes by using non-numeric (ordinal), non-exact (interval) and non-complete information (NNN-information). Through the analysis of multi-criteria assessment of potential options, the decision-makers are able to evaluate options and select the optimal new power plant capacity.     

Prioritizing the weights of hydrogen energy technologies in the sector of the hydrogen economy by using a fuzzy AHP approach

KIER, government supported research institute, establishes a long-term strategic energy technology development roadmap essentially with selection and specialization of energy technology R&D and for Korea's national security. In this paper, we establish a strategic hydrogen energy technology roadmap taking economic impact, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. We suggest a methodology to prioritize the relative weights of hydrogen energy technologies of hydrogen energy technology roadmap (ETRM) as we allocate R&D budget effectively using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which reflects the vagueness of human thoughts instead of crisp numbers efficiently. In the sector of the hydrogen ETRM which is composed of 6 hydrogen energy technologies, PEMFC technology is the most preferred and technology (0.29), followed by DEFC tech (0.28), SOFC tech (0.24), Hydrogen separation & storage tech (0.10), and Hydrogen production tech (0.09).     

Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms.     

Application of energy system models for designing a low-carbon society

Rising concern about the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change is pushing national governments and the international community to achieve sustainable development in an economy that is less dependent on carbon emitting activities - a vision that is usually termed a “low-carbon society” (LCS). Since the utilization of energy resources is the main source of GHG emissions, restructuring current energy systems in order to incorporate low-carbon energy technologies is essential for the realization of the LCS vision. Energy policies promoting the penetration of these technologies must view the role of energy in society as a system, composed of several energy resources, conversion technologies and energy demand sectors. The feasibility of the LCS in the future can be better understood by means of energy models. Energy models are valuable mathematical tools based on the systems approach. They have been applied to aid decision-making in energy planning, to analyze energy policies and to analyze the implications arising from the introduction of technologies. The design of the LCS requires innovative energy systems considering a trans-disciplinary approach that integrates multi-dimensional elements, related to social, economic, and environmental aspects. This paper reviews the application of energy models considering scenarios towards an LCS under the energy systems approach. The models reviewed consider the utilization of waste for energy, the penetration of clean coal technologies, transportation sector models as a sample of sectoral approaches, and models related to energy-for-development issues in rural areas of developing countries.     

Locating wind farm for power and hydrogen production based on Geographic information system and multi-criteria decision making method: An application

Hydrogen generation from renewable energy resources is considered as a suitable solution to solve the problems related to the energy sector and the reduction of greenhouse gases. The aim of this study is to provide an integrated framework for identifying suitable areas for the construction of wind farms to produce hydrogen. For this purpose, a combined method of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) has been used to locate the power plant in Yazd province. The GIS method in the present study consisted of two parts: constraints and criteria. The constraint section included areas that were unsuitable for the construction of wind farms to produce power and hydrogen. In the present study, various aspects such as physical, economic and environmental had been considered as constraints. In the criteria section, eight different criteria from technical aspects (including average wind speed, hydrogen production potential, land slope) and economic aspects (including distance to electricity grid, distance to urban areas, distance to road, distance to railway and distance to centers of High hydrogen consumption) had been investigated. The MCDM tool had been used to weigh the criteria and identify suitable areas. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was used for weighting the criteria. The results of AHP weighting method showed that economic criteria had the highest importance with a value of 0.681. The most significant sub-criterion was the distance to urban areas and the least significant sub-criterion was the distance to power transmission lines. The results of GIS-MCDM analysis had shown that the most proper areas were in the southern and central sectors of Yazd province. In addition, the feasibility of hydrogen production from wind energy had shown that this province had the capacity to generate hydrogen at the rate of 53.6–128.6 tons per year.     

Soft-linking energy systems and GIS models to investigate spatial hydrogen infrastructure development in a low-carbon UK energy system

This paper describes an innovative modelling approach focusing on linking spatial (GIS) modelling of hydrogen (H₂) supply, demands and infrastructures, anchored within a economy-wide energy systems model (MARKAL). The UK government is legislating a groundbreaking climate change mitigation target for a 60% CO₂ reduction by 2050, and has identified H₂ infrastructures and technologies as potentially playing a major role, notably in the transport sector. An exploratory set of linked GIS–MARKAL model scenarios generate a range of nuanced insights including spatial matching of supply and demand for optimal zero-carbon H₂ deployment, a crucial finding on successive clustering of demand centres to enable economies of scale in H₂ supply and distribution, the competitiveness of imported liquid H₂ and of liquid H₂ distribution, and sectoral competition for coal with carbon sequestration between electricity and H₂ production under economy-wide CO₂ constraints.     

Energy sector of the Russian Far East: Current status and scenarios for the future

This article describes the Russian Far East's energy sector, stressing its limited energy exports, and use of separate electricity and heating grids to geographically dispersed population centers with various supply patterns distributed across a vast territory. One key strategic trend has been to strengthen the potential of the region as an energy supplier for the countries of Northeast Asia. This underlies the framework used to develop three energy scenarios of the Russian Far East's energy future through 2030: Reference, National Alternative and Regional Alternative. While the Regional Alternative case has much greater total costs for implementation, yields almost the same amount of emissions as the BAU case, and requires greater governmental efforts to bring it to reality, it looks preferable for the RFE as a whole because it has a well-balanced primary energy consumption mix, lower energy and ecology/GDP indices, and a lower fraction of energy imports; offers greater diversity of energy supply; and provides better local energy service. The authors would like to thank Boris Saneev, Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Izhbuldin from the Institute of Energy Systems, Irkutsk; Julia Savelieva from Far Eastern Coal Research; and Alla Filatova from Far Eastern Power Engineering Institute for providing technical information, and expertise.     

Industrial energy efficiency: the need for investment decision support from a manager perspective

Global competition, commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and a deregulated, integrated European electricity market will in all probability increase the demand for energy efficiency on the part of companies in Sweden. Investment decisions are an important part of meeting the new demands, because they decide the future efficiency of industrial energy systems. The objective of this study is to investigate, from a managerial perspective, the need to improve decision support in some industries, which can help to facilitate and improve investment decisions concerning energy efficiency. This work has been conducted through in-depth interviews with representatives for a number of energy-intensive companies and non-energy-intensive companies from different sectors. One need that was identified was the improvement of working methods in order to support the decision-making process. Here, external players seem to be playing an increasingly important role. Access to correct information, better follow-up activities, and transparent, understandable calculations are also considered to be important. The study will form the foundation for subsequent work on decision support and energy efficiency in industry.