中印等发展中国家应对气候变化政策措施的初步分析

在发展中国家如何应对气候变化问题上,中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥和南非是最受关注的5个国家,5国应对气候变化的策略和实践经验也为其他发展中国家树立了榜样。本文从影响5国应对气候变化的基本国情出发,指出气候变化导致的生态脆弱性和大国责任感是促使5国不断重视应对气候变化的动力,而贫困、有限的资源、技术和能力则是其中的关键制约因素。尽管如此,5国依然结合国情采取了一系列政策措施并进一步制定了应对气候变化国家方案或战略以有效控制经济增长过程中的温室气体排放,充分展现了5国应对气候变化的愿望和努力。     

Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian cities—A critical review and perspectives

How to sustain rapid economic and urban growth with minimised detriment to environment is a key challenge for sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries, which face constraints of technical and financial resources scarcity as well as dearth of infrastructure governance capacity. This paper attempts to address this question by investigating the driving forces of transport demand and relevant policy measures that facilitate mitigating GHG emissions in the urban transport sector in Indian cities based on a critical review of the literature. Our overview of existing literature and international experiences suggests that it is critical to improve urban governance in transport infrastructure quality and develop efficient public transport, coupled with integrated land use/transport planning as well as economic instruments. This will allow Indian cities to embark on a sustainable growth pathway by decoupling transport services demand of GHG emissions in the longer term. Appropriate policy instruments need to be selected to reconcile the imperatives of economic and urban growth, aspiration to higher quality of life, improvements in social welfare, urban transport-related energy consumption and GHG emissions mitigation target in Indian cities.     

Large-scale open pond algae biomass yield analysis in India: a case study

Global warming, depletion of fossil fuel and increasing demand for energy have led to the substantial interest in developing alternate energy sources, especially biodiesel. First generation biofuels produced from food crops and oil seeds are limited to achieve targets for biodiesel production. Second generation biofuel produced from non-food feed stock such as microalgae provides various potential advantages for biofuel production when compared with first generation biofuels. This paper investigates the possible use of microalgae for biofuel production on the selected potential sites in the country. Algal biomass and oil yield for the selected sites are predicted using the analytical method.     

Building envelope design for climate change mitigation: a case study of hotels in Greece

This paper presents results of a study of the impact of future climate change scenarios as developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and implemented in weather files for specific future time slices (2020, 2050 and 2080) for the three climatic regions of Greece on the design of the external envelope of a hotel building in Greece. The impact of climate change on the hotel is assessed via hourly simulations of a calibrated model developed using the software TRNSYS. Additionally, the paper aims to identify optimal refurbishment strategies, given the constraints of the existing case-study building when transposed to the three different climatic zones in Greece. Two modes of the hotel building were studied: ‘all year’ and ‘seasonally’ operated. It was found that different external envelope energy-efficient strategies can be applied depending on the climatic zone and whether the hotel is all-year or seasonally operated.     

Effects of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and cost of China and India

Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States (US), the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the integrated model of energy, environment and economy/computable general equilibrium (IMED/CGE) model, assesses the impacts of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on China, India in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2°C scenarios due to changed emission pathway of the US. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among the countries, the failure of the US to honor its NDC commitment will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other regions, including China and India, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2°C target, the carbon price will increase by US$14.3 to US$45.3/t in China and by US $10.7 to US$33.9/t in India. In addition, China and India will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2°C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$23.3 to US$72.6 billion (equivalent to US$17.4 to US$54.2/capita), and that of India would rise by US$14.2 to US$43.1 billion (equivalent to US$9.3 to US$28.2/capita).     

Carbon emission mitigation measures in Brazil—case study of biomass policy for a ferroalloy plant in Ceará State

The present work aims at discussing the possibilities of atmospheric carbon emissions mitigation in the scope of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the forest sector using a case study in the Northeast of Brazil. Taking Ceará State as an example and based on the Ceará State Energy Balances for 1980, 1984 and 1987, the Carbon (C-CO₂) Emission Balances were drawn up covering these same years. An exercise was carried out in order to draw up carbon emissions mitigation proposals through both Environmental Education and reforestation policies replacing forest clearing. The first, environmental education and forest management practices, involves more efficient practices in the woody sector. The second, reforestation policies, instead of felling native forests for fuel-wood burned to produce charcoal, is discussed from the economic point of view. An estimate was drawn up of the carbon abatement costs, using a case study for charcoal production based on reforestation instead of deforestation, for a ferroalloy plant in Ceará State.     

European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry

We quantify the impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) on the two dimensions of competitiveness – production and profitability – for the iron and steel industry. Among those covered by the scheme, this sector is one of the most exposed, since it is both highly CO₂-intensive and relatively open to international trade. We also examine the robustness of these results to various assumptions: marginal abatement cost curve, trade and demand elasticities, as well as pass-through rates and updating of allocation rules, of which the latter two are scarcely debated.We conclude that for this sector, competitiveness losses are small. We prove this conclusion to be robust. Hence arguments against tightening the environmental stringency of the ETS in Phase II are not justified on grounds of competitiveness loss. Our systematic sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the important assumptions for each output variable. It turns out that pass-through rates and updating rules are significant, despite being often implicit and least debated in existing analyses.     

Implications of private sector participation in power generation—a case study from India

India suffers from widespread shortages of electricity supply. These shortages, among others, are detrimental to the economic growth. The prospects for the next decade do not seem to be much brighter. Efforts in expanding generation capacity by the state-owned electric utilities are hampered by severe resource constraints. Against this backdrop, to mobilize additional resources to help bridge the gap in demand and supply, the Government of India formulated a policy in 1991 with the objective to encourage greater investment by private enterprises in the electricity sector. To study the implications of such an initiative on various stakeholders, viz., public utilities, consumers and private sector, the present paper tries to analyse issues like planned rationing, guarantees to private sector, backing down of existing capacity. Using the state of Karnataka (in Southern India) as a case study, the paper develops multiple scenarios using an integrated mixed integer-programming model. The results show the advantage of marginal non-supply (rationing) of electricity in terms of achieving overall effective supply demand matching as well as providing economic benefits to the state that could be generated through cost savings. The results also show the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and the new public capacity. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees are found to be significantly high. For 2011–12, depending on the type of scenarios, the estimated generation and economic losses are likely to be in the range of 3200–10,000 GWh and Rs. 4200–13,600 million respectively. The impact of these losses on the consumers could be in terms of significant increase in energy bills (in the range of 19–40% for different scenarios) due to rise in tariffs.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system—A case study of Norway

The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier.     

Model‐based approach for planning renewable energy transition in a resource‐constrained electricity system—A case study from India

Globally, electricity systems are going through transitions. The contributions from renewable energy‐based power generation, both in installed capacity and electricity generation, are moving from marginal to the mainstream. India is not an exception; it is aggressively pursuing this transition by fixing steep targets for renewable capacity additions. While the cost of renewable energy sources is expected to fast reach grid parity, the policy interventions play a critical role in ramping up the efforts to support the proposed investments in renewable capacity and renewable electricity generation. In this respect, this research attempts to analyze the effectiveness of renewable energy policies such as Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and Renewable Energy Certificate mechanisms in tapping the renewable energy potential in India. We propose a mixed‐integer linear programming model‐based approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the above interventions in the Indian context. The model is developed and validated as a low carbon electricity planning tool to optimally meet the dynamic electricity demand and RPO targets as well as to manage the unmet total electricity demand and RPO targets. The Karnataka state electricity system (a state in south India) is chosen as a case study. The results suggest that Karnataka Electricity System is moving toward a sustainable renewable energy future even without any support from nonsolar Renewable Energy Certificate policy. However, policy interventions are critical for optimally utilizing the solar generation capacity.     

中国应对气候变化的政策以及科学在其中所扮演的角色

叙述了中国政府应对气候变化的政策和贡献,指出,必须从科学研究、承担责任、制度建设和科技创新与体制创新4个方面作保证,才能实现应对气候变化行动的目标。     

Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results

This note examines the different direction of causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth in India. Applying Engle–Granger cointegration approach combined with the standard Granger causality test on Indian data for the period 1950–1996, we find that bi-directional causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth. Further, we apply Johansen multivariate cointegration technique on the different set of variables. The same direction of causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth. This is different from the results obtained in earlier studies.     

Domestic energy consumption patterns in a hot and arid climate: A multiple-case study analysis

The paper evaluates domestic energy consumption patterns in a hot and arid climate, using a multiple case study approach localised in Riyadh city (Saudi Arabia). Riyadh has a characteristically hot and dry climate, and is situated in a geographical region known for its high energy consumption and carbon emission rates. Six properties were selected: three typical houses and three typical flats. The objective is to analyse the average domestic energy consumption of each property using data collected from monthly electricity bills; this usage is then assessed with reference to user behaviour, as captured through interviews with the occupiers of the properties, so as to assist in creating a detailed energy use simulation model using IES-VE software. The results are discussed with reference to both the form and fabric of the selected properties and user behaviour, thereby identifying obvious design weaknesses, which then serve to highlight regionally replicable energy retrofitting solutions (i.e. shading devices, onsite renewable energy sources, and more efficient glazing). To explore these various solutions further, additional IES-VE simulations are conducted that suggest potential energy consumption reductions in the range of 15%–34%. In light of these findings, recommendations that have the potential to be replicable across the region are given.     

Financing renewable energy projects via closed-end funds—a German case study

During recent years, closed-end funds have become one of the dominant financing schemes for wind farms in Germany. Having evolved out of the traditional model of local citizen-financed wind farms (‘Bürgerwindpark’), closed-end wind funds can be seen as a logical consequence of the increasing professionalism and specialisation trend within the wind business as a whole. This article illustrates the basic market mechanisms behind the project development and financing approach based on closed-end funds and gives an overview on recent market developments in Germany. Finally, the transferability of this approach to other technologies or other regional markets is discussed.     

Artificial neural networks applications in building energy predictions and a case study for tropical climates

This study presents artificial neural network (ANN) methods in building energy use predictions. Applications of the ANN methods in energy audits and energy savings predictions due to building retrofits are emphasized. A generalized ANN model that can be applied to any building type with minor modifications would be a very useful tool for building engineers. ANN methods offer faster learning time, simplicity in analysis and adaptability to seasonal climate variations and changes in the building's energy use when compared to other statistical and simulation models. The model herein is presented for predicting chiller plant energy use in tropical climates with small seasonal and daily variations. It was successfully created based on both climatic and chiller data. The average absolute training error for the model was 9.7% while the testing error was 10.0%. This indicates that the model can successfully predict the particular chiller energy consumption in a tropical climate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The governance challenge for implementing effective market-based climate policies: A case study of The New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme

The New South Wales (NSW) Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GGAS) in Australia is a baseline and credit emissions trading scheme with the stated aim of reducing the per-capita greenhouse emissions associated with electricity consumption in the state of NSW. Here we provide a detailed assessment of the GGAS design and operation, with a particular emphasis on its effectiveness in delivering physical emissions reductions that would not have occurred in its absence. We find that a number of design features mean a significant proportion of the tradeable ‘abatement’ certificates are unlikely to correspond to the claimed emissions reductions. While some of these adverse design choices might be corrected, others would seem inherent to the underlying scheme design. Our analysis highlights the major governance challenges with emissions trading approaches and hence the importance of good policy implementation processes including the need for separation of powers through a scheme development process that involves design, assessment and revision. These GGAS lessons would seem relevant for governance with all emissions trading schemes, and has particular implications for cap and trade schemes that incorporate baseline and credit offset schemes, as well as to the ‘White Certificate’ schemes increasingly being seen as a means of fostering enhanced end-use energy efficiency.     

Assessment of the fuel wood of India: A case study based on fuel characteristics of some indigenous species of Arunachal Pradesh

Biomass in the form of fuelwood has been a source of energy for many centuries all over the world. In rural India, fuelwood remains the first choice of energy source. Arunachal Pradesh is home to many different tree species; so far most of the fuelwoods of Arunachal Pradesh have never been studied for their fuel characteristics. This study is carried out with the following objectives: (i) Identification and selection of indigenous fuelwood species, which are widely distributed throughout Arunachal Pradesh, North East India; (ii) quantitative and qualitative analysis of these fuelwoods; and (iii) to rank these fuelwoods according to their fuel value index.     

Toward integrated energy and materials policies? A case study on CO2 reduction in the Netherlands

Energy and material flows are closely related. The materials system is of major significance from a national energy and CO₂ point of view. Integrated energy and materials studies can show significant new policy options for energy savings and CO₂ emission reduction through materials system improvements, shown in a case study on long-term CO₂ emission reduction in the Netherlands. An integrated energy and materials system MARKAL model is used for this analysis. The results show that, on one hand, CO₂ emission reduction costs are significantly reduced in the integrated approach and, on the other hand, the materials system is significantly influenced by CO₂ emission reduction. Consideration of dynamic interactions results in better understanding of future developments in both energy and materials systems.     

Impact of reform and privatization on consumers: A case study of power sector reform in Orissa,India

Orissa is the first state in India to have undergone reform in the power sector, with the government withdrawing its control. The model of this reform is known as the WB–Orissa model. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of this reform on consumers of electricity, which has been measured using multiple regression models. The variables represent the parameters that consumers are most interested in, and the regression coefficients represent the weights of the corresponding variables. The data were collected using a survey methodology. The impact of reform was found to be mixed. Some groups of consumers saw benefits, while others felt a negative impact. A focus group study was conducted to identify the variables of interest to consumers of electricity. The model was used to estimate consumer benefit and was validated using primary data and structural equation modeling. The study revealed beneficial aspects of reform and areas with no benefits.