Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits

Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.     

Scenario for growth of electricity in India

India's GDP has been growing quite fast in recent past and it is forecast that it would continue to do so in the coming several decades. To realize the growth in GDP, it is necessary that corresponding growth in demand of primary energy as well as electricity is estimated and plans are made to meet the demand. Our estimate indicates that even after recognizing that energy intensity of GDP would continue to decline as in the past, the total electricity generation by the middle of the century would be an order of magnitude higher than the generation in the fiscal year 2002–2003. This calls for developing a strategy for growth of electricity generation based on a careful examination of all issues related to sustainability particularly abundance of available energy resources, diversity of sources of energy supply and technologies, security of supplies and self-sufficiency. This paper presents a scenario for growth of electricity in India. To meet the projected demand, the paper presents a strategy, which incorporates, wherever available, recommendations of various organs of the Government of India. It is observed that in order to limit cumulative energy import during the next 50 years to about 30%, the nuclear contribution towards electricity generation has to increase from the present 3% to about a quarter of the total. For the nuclear power to play this role, the programme of the Department of Atomic Energy to augment nuclear installed capacity to 20 GWe by 2020 based on a mix of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Light Water Reactors (LWRs) and Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) should be completed and the R&D necessary to set up U–Pu metal-based FBRs of short doubling time and associated fuel reprocessing technologies should also be completed in the next 15 years.     

Advances in nuclear hydrogen production: Results from an IAEA international collaborative research project

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had successfully concluded a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the techno-economic aspects of nuclear hydrogen production with the participation of eleven countries including leading countries on nuclear hydrogen production such as Japan, USA, China, India, Republic of Korea and Canada. The activities carried out through this four-years CRP paved the way for addressing several development key issues related to nuclear hydrogen production. The main focus was on assessing various technological and economic aspects of potential nuclear hydrogen production options. The CRP has resulted in finalizing four detailed case studies on different systems for nuclear hydrogen production. These case studies were used to perform benchmark analysis for the IAEA Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Programme (HEEP), developed by the IAEA to support Member States considering the use of nuclear energy for hydrogen production. This paper highlights some activities, results, and status of international collaborative efforts on nuclear hydrogen production conducted in the Member States (MSs) participated to the CRP. The paper also presents the results of country-specific case studies considering different nuclear reactors and hydrogen technologies.     

Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies on neighbouring areas as an electricity buffer though.     

Status and outlook of China's free-carbon electricity

Global warming, increased energy demand, and tremendous air pollution are forcing China to revise its energy structure of electricity generation dominated by coal (80% of total electricity) towards low-carbon electricity. Vigorous development of carbon-free energy resources of electricity is a practical way towards low-carbon electricity in China. In this paper, we shall outline renewable power generation (hydropower, wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, nuclear power, ocean energy and geothermal) together with nuclear power for China, present a reserves assessment, the current status, and barriers for further development, and finish with an outlook towards the future. In our view, China has plenty of free-carbon energy resources to revolutionize its electricity structure and redirect it towards low-carbon electricity systems. Needed are the effective energy policies to get to the way.     

Offshore wind energy policy for India—Key factors to be considered

Indian Economy is growing at a healthy pace during the last few years. To sustain this growth, power sector needs to build additional generation capacity. However, continued dependence on fossil fuels to power the growth of electricity generation capacity, is hardly sustainable. Renewable Energy source forms a miniscule portion (25 GW,∼12%) of India's overall power generation today (202 GW). The share of wind energy (17 GW) is 67% of the total renewable energy basket. But the contribution from offshore wind farms is non-existent, as all the wind energy generated in India is only through onshore wind farms. India needs a policy framework to encourage the development of offshore wind farms. Several European countries have effective offshore wind energy policies that have helped them to accelerate the growth of their offshore wind energy sector. This paper does an exhaustive literature survey, to identify 21 building blocks of a successful offshore wind energy policy initiative adopted by select European countries, which have been classified under 5 broad categories—Government support, Fiscal and quota based incentives, Availability of local expertise, Capital for investments and Building an enabling ecosystem, which can be leveraged by India to articulate its own offshore wind energy policy.     

An optimal electricity allocation model for sustainable resource use in India

Energy demand is increasing rapidly because of developments in the agricultural, industrial, commercial and transportation sectors. Improved lifestyle and population rise are other reasons for the increase in energy demand. The development of an electricity allocation model will help in the proper allocation of the energy sources to meet the future electricity demand in India. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a fuzzy‐based linear programming, optimal electricity allocation model (OEAM) that minimizes the cost and determines the optimum allocation of different energy sources to the centralized and decentralized power generation in India. The potential of energy sources, energy demand, efficiency of the energy systems, emission released by the energy systems and carbon tax for the emissions released by each system are the main factors that influence the pattern of electricity distribution and are used as constraints in the model. Executing this model results in an optimal electricity distribution pattern. The results indicate that the commercial energy sources such as coal, nuclear and hydro would meet nearly 68% of total electricity demand and that the remaining 32% of the electricity demand will be met by the renewable energy sources, namely, wind, biomass, biogas, solid waste, cogeneration and mini hydel for the year 2020. Various scenarios are also developed by varying the demand, potential, emission and carbon tax. This study will help in the formation of strategies for effective utilization of energy sources in India. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainability evaluation of decentralized electricity generation

Decentralized power generation is gaining significance in liberalized electricity markets. An increasing decentralization of power supply is expected to make a particular contribution to climate protection. This article investigates the advantages and disadvantages of decentralized electricity generation according to the overall concept of sustainable development. On the basis of a hierarchically structured set of sustainability criteria, four future scenarios for Germany are assessed, all of which describe different concepts of electricity supply in the context of the corresponding social and economic developments. The scenarios are developed in an explorative way according to the scenario method and the sustainability criteria are established by a discursive method with societal actors. The evaluation is carried out by scientific experts. By applying an expanded analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multicriteria evaluation is conducted that identifies dissent among the experts. The results demonstrate that decentralized electricity generation can contribute to climate protection. The extent to which it simultaneously guarantees security of supply is still a matter of controversy. However, experts agree that technical and economic boundary conditions are of major importance in this field. In the final section, the article discusses the method employed here as well as implications for future decentralized energy supply.     

China's approach to nuclear safety — From the perspective of policy and institutional system

Nuclear energy plays an important role in the energy sector in the world. It has achieved a rapid development during the past six decades and contributes to over 11% of the world's electricity supply. On the other side, nuclear accidents have triggered substantial debates with a growing public concern on nuclear facilities. Followed by the Fukushima nuclear accident, some developed countries decided to shut down the existing nuclear power plants or to abandon plans to build new ones. Given this background, accelerating the development of nuclear power on the basis of safety in China will make it a bellwether for other countries. China assigns the top priority to the nuclear safety in nuclear energy development and has maintained a good record in this field. The policy and institutional system provide the necessary guarantee for the nuclear energy development and safety management. Furthermore, China's approach to nuclear safety provides a benchmark for the safe development and utilization of nuclear power. This research draws an overall picture of the nuclear energy development and nuclear safety in China from the policy and institutional perspective.     

The production of hydrogen fuel from renewable sources and its role in grid operations

Understanding the scale and nature of hydrogen's potential role in the development of low carbon energy systems requires an examination of the operation of the whole energy system, including heat, power, industrial and transport sectors, on an hour-by-hour basis. The Future Energy Scenario Assessment (FESA) software model used for this study is unique in providing a holistic, high resolution, functional analysis, which incorporates variations in supply resulting from weather-dependent renewable energy generators. The outputs of this model, arising from any given user-definable scenario, are year round supply and demand profiles that can be used to assess the market size and operational regime of energy technologies. FESA was used in this case to assess what - if anything - might be the role for hydrogen in a low carbon economy future for the UK.In this study, three UK energy supply pathways were considered, all of which reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, and substantially reduce reliance on oil and gas while maintaining a stable electricity grid and meeting the energy needs of a modern economy. All use more nuclear power and renewable energy of all kinds than today's system. The first of these scenarios relies on substantial amounts of ‘clean coal’ in combination with intermittent renewable energy sources by year the 2050. The second uses twice as much intermittent renewable energy as the first and virtually no coal. The third uses 2.5 times as much nuclear power as the first and virtually no coal.All scenarios clearly indicate that the use of hydrogen in the transport sector is important in reducing distributed carbon emissions that cannot easily be mitigated by Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). In the first scenario, this hydrogen derives mainly from steam reformation of fossil fuels (principally coal), whereas in the second and third scenarios, hydrogen is made mainly by electrolysis using variable surpluses of low-carbon electricity. Hydrogen thereby fulfils a double facetted role of Demand Side Management (DSM) for the electricity grid and the provision of a ‘clean’ fuel, predominantly for the transport sector. When each of the scenarios was examined without the use of hydrogen as a transport fuel, substantially larger amounts of primary energy were required in the form of imported coal.The FESA model also indicates that the challenge of grid balancing is not a valid reason for limiting the amount of intermittent renewable energy generated. Engineering limitations, economic viability, local environmental considerations and conflicting uses of land and sea may limit the amount of renewable energy available, but there is no practical limit to the conversion of this energy into whatever is required, be it electricity, heat, motive power or chemical feedstocks.     

Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as of July 2009 there were 52 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. This paper characterizes and evaluates these “Newcomer Countries” in terms of their capacity and motivations to develop nuclear power. It quantifies factors historically associated with the development of nuclear energy programs and then benchmarks the Newcomers against these data. Countries with established nuclear power programs, particularly where nuclear facilities are privately owned, are typically larger, wealthier and politically stable economies with high government effectiveness. Nuclear power was historically launched during periods of high electricity consumption growth. Other indicators for the potential of nuclear power include: the size of the national grid, the presence of international grid connections and security of fuel supply for electricity production. We identify 10 Newcomers which most closely resemble the Established Nuclear Power Countries and thus are most likely to deploy nuclear energy, 10 countries where the development of nuclear energy is uncertain due to high political instability, 14 countries with lower capacities where pursuing nuclear energy may require especially strong international cooperation and 18 countries where the development of nuclear power is less likely due to their significantly lower capacities and motivations.     

2010～2020年我国能源和电力发展前景分析

本文对我国2015及2020年能源、电力消费以及碳排放强度进行高中低三种情景分析。结果表明,中方案和低方案能够实现到2020年非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,而高方案要实现该目标,必须将人均能源消费弹性系数降至0.6左右;2020年,低碳能源发电量比例有望提高至29%～43%,核电装机比例能达到5%左右;在2010～2015年期间,清洁能源发电装机增量将首次超过煤电装机增量。     

Cost evaluation of two potential nuclear power plants for hydrogen production

Hydrogen is recognized as one of the most promising alternative fuels to meet the energy demand for the future by providing a carbon-free solution. In regards to hydrogen production, there has been increasing interest to develop, innovate and commercialize more efficient, effective and economic methods, systems and applications. Nuclear based hydrogen production options through electrolysis and thermochemical cycles appear to be potentially attractive and sustainable for the expanding hydrogen sector. In the current study, two potential nuclear power plants, which are planned to be built in Akkuyu and Sinop in Turkey, are evaluated for hydrogen production scenarios and cost aspects. These two plants will employ the pressurized water reactors with the electricity production capacities of 4800 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1200 MW) for Akkuyu nuclear power plant and 4480 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1120 MW) for Sinop nuclear power plant. Each of these plants are expected to cost about 20 billion US dollars. In the present study, these two plants are considered for hydrogen production and their cost evaluations by employing the special software entitled “Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Program (HEEP)” developed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which includes numerous options for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation. The costs of capital, fuel, electricity, decommissioning and consumables are calculated and evaluated in detail for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation in Turkey. The results show that the amount of hydrogen cost varies from 3.18 $/kg H₂ to 6.17 $/kg H₂.     

Nuclear energy into the twenty-first century

The historical development of the civil nuclear power generation industry is examined in the light of the need to meet conflicting energy-supply and environmental pressures over recent decades. It is suggested that fission (thermal and fast) reactors will dominate the market up to the period 2010–2030, with fusion being relegated to the latter part of the twenty-first century. A number of issues affecting the use of nuclear electricity generation in Western Europe are considered, including its cost, industrial strategy needs, and the public acceptability of nuclear power. The contribution of nuclear power stations to achieving CO₂ targets aimed at relieving global warming is discussed in the context of alternative strategies for sustainable development, including renewable energy sources and energy-efficiency measures. Trends in the generation of nuclear electricity from fission reactors are finally considered in terms of the main geopolitical groupings that make up the world in the mid-1990s. Several recent, but somewhat conflicting, forecasts of the role of nuclear power in the fuel mix to about 2020 are reviewed. It is argued that the only major expansion in generating capacity will take place on the Asia-Pacific Rim and not in the developing countries generally. Nevertheless, the global nuclear industry overall will continue to be dominated by a small number of large nuclear electricity generating countries; principally the USA, France and Japan.     

African electricity infrastructure interconnections and electricityexchanges

This paper discusses African electrical energy resources: feasibility studies, interconnection of power systems, the present state of the electric power sector, future expansion of African power systems, and implementation of an African power grid network. It examines involvement of the World Bank with African electricity infrastructure, Grand Inga interconnection projects, the Great Lakes project, and prospects for evaluation of a unified power system in Africa. First, the poorness of African countries and their limited electricity infrastructure is discussed. Objectives for electricity infrastructure development in response to perceived needs is examined and the development challenge for the future, with ways of meeting that challenge defined. Grand Inga interconnections projects are then reviewed. The Democratic Republic of Congo's potential is equivalent to 88400 MW of continuous energy; 42000 MW is located in the Inga region. Development of the Great Lakes interconnected network which links Burundi, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo is also reviewed. The paper discusses existing power systems in Africa and presents the idea of dividing the continent into five main regions of about the same surface area for electricity trade. Feasibility studies of an HVDC line from Democratic Republic of Congo to Egypt and other studies to South Africa and Europe are discussed. A scenario for energy balance for the 2050 is presented, and export of electricity to neighboring continents, mainly Europe, in excess of 200 TWh/year by 2050 is outlined. Implementation of an integrated African grid network is discussed     

Wind energy status in India: A short review

Renewable energy represents an area of tremendous opportunity for India. Energy is considered a prime agent in the generation of wealth and a significant factor in economic development. Energy is also essential for improving the quality of life. Development of conventional forms of energy for meeting the growing energy needs of society at a reasonable cost is the responsibility of the Government. Limited fossil resources and associated environmental problems have emphasized the need for new sustainable energy supply options. India depends heavily on coal and oil for meeting its energy demand which contributes to smog, acid rain and greenhouse gases’ emission. Last 25 years has been a period of intense activities related to research, development, production and distribution of energy in India.Though major energy sources for electrical power are coal and natural gas, development and promotion of non-conventional sources of energy such as solar, wind and bio-energy, are also getting sustained attention. The use of electricity has grown since it can be used in variety of applications as well as it can be easily transmitted, the uses of renewable energy like wind and solar is rising. Wind energy is a clean, eco-friendly, renewable resource and is nonpolluting. The gross wind power potential is estimated at around 48,561 MW in the country; a capacity of 14,989.89 MW up to 31st August 2011 has so far been added through wind, which places India in the fifth position globally. This paper discusses the ways in which India has already supported the growth of renewable energy technologies i.e. wind energy and its potential to expand their contribution to world growth in a way that is consistent with world's developmental and environmental goals. The paper presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of wind energy in India.     

Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis

The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 has increased social and political reluctance to embrace nuclear power in Japan (and elsewhere). The Japanese government has thus been considering four possible future energy mixes, including a nuclear-free pathway, and three others with 10%–35% nuclear supply coupled with a larger proportion of renewable energy and fossil fuels to replace nuclear. Here we use multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) to assess the potential negative economic (levelised cost of electricity, and energy security), environmental (greenhouse-gas emissions, land transformation, water consumption, heated water discharge, air pollution, radioactive waste, and solid waste) and social (safety issues) impacts of the four proposed pathways to determine which scenario most holistically minimises adverse future outcomes. The nuclear-free pathway has the highest overall potential for adverse outcomes (score=2.49 out of 3), and the 35% nuclear power supply option yielding the lowest negative impact score (0.74) without weightings. Despite some sensitivity to the choice of criterion weights, our analyses demonstrate clearly that from an empirical perspective, a nuclear-free pathway for Japan is the worst option to pursue. We recommend that MCDMA methodology we used for Japan can be applied to other countries to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios.     

A survey of the market for nuclear power in developing countries

The Fourth International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy and the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency both produced recommendations in 1971 that efforts should be intensified to assist developing countries in planning for nuclear power. The IAEA undertook in 1972-73 the specific analysis of the possible long-range economic justificaiton for nuclear power plants in 14 of the developing countries. In this article, Mr Falls reviews the methodology and procedures used in carrying out the analytical work; briefly describes several computer programmes that were specifically developed for the Survey; and summarises the overall results which indicate essentially no market, for nuclear power plants to be commissioned in 1980-89, of less than 200 MWe but a substantial market for sizes in the range of 200–600 MWe.