Impacts of booming economic growth and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in Chinese megalopolises over 1985–2010: an index decomposition analysis

Given the booming economic growth and urbanization in China, cities have become crucial to sustaining this development and curbing national emissions. Understanding the key drivers underlying the rapid emissions growth is critical to providing local solutions for national climate targets. By using index decomposition analysis, we explore the factors contributing to the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Chinese megalopolises from 1985 to 2010. An additional decomposition analysis of the industry sector is performed because of its dominant contribution to the total emissions. The booming economy and expanding urban areas are the major drivers to the increasing CO₂ emissions in Chinese megalopolises over the examined period. The significant improvement in energy intensity is the primary factor for reducing CO₂ emissions, the declining trend of which, however, has been suspended or reversed since 2000. The decoupling effect of the adjustments in the economic structure only occurred in three megalopolises, namely, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei Megalopolis (BTJ), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In comparison, the impacts of urban density and carbon intensity are relatively marginal. The further disaggregated decomposition analysis in the industry sector shows that energy intensity improvements were widely achieved in 36 sub-industries in the PRD. The results also indicate the concentrations of energy-intensive industries in the PRD, posing a major challenge to local governments for a low-carbon economy. As economic growth and urbanization continue, reductions in energy intensity and clean energy therefore warrant much more policy attentions due to their crucial roles in reducing carbon emissions and satisfying the energy demand.     

Carbon emissions reduction in China's food industry

In this paper, we evaluate the changes in carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in China's food industry from 1986 to 2010 based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The results show that energy intensity (EI) and industrial activity (IA) are the main determinants of the changes in carbon dioxide. Energy intensity (EI) contributes to decrease in emissions within 25 years while industrial activity (IA) acts in a positive way to increase the emissions level. Industry scale (IS) mostly contributes to increase in emissions except for the time interval 1996–2000. However, for both carbon intensity (CI) and energy structure (ES), they have a volatile but not significant influence on emissions in the different time intervals. To further understand the effects, we analyze the cumulative emission during the whole period 1986–2010. The results further testify that energy intensity and industrial activity are the most important factors affecting reduction and growth of carbon emissions. The results indicate that efforts to reduce emission in China's food industry should focus on the enhancement of energy efficiency, the optimization of industrial scale and the restructuring energy use. Finally, recommendations are provided for the reduction of carbon dioxide in China's food industry.     

饭店低碳评价指标及碳排放等级划分

节能减排作为一项基本国策已深入人心。然而饭店节能减排工作,目前仍停留在绿色饭店的“浅绿色”概念,与时代发展不相符。启动饭店低碳化水平的评价和碳排放等级划分,不仅可推动饭店行业的节能减排,而且可广泛影响人们在生活中低碳行为的培养。通过理论与实践,提出饭店低碳化评价指标体系和饭店碳排放等级划分的具体标准。     

Potentials for energy efficiency improvement in the US cement industry

This paper reports on an in-depth analysis of the US cement industry, identifying cost-effective energy efficiency measures and potentials. Between 1970 and 1997, primary physical energy intensity for cement production (SIC 324) dropped 30%, from 7.9 GJ/t to 5.6 GJ/t, while specific carbon dioxide emissions due to fuel consumption and clinker calcination dropped 17%, from 0.29 tC/tonne to 0.24 tC/tonne. We examined 30 energy-efficient technologies and measures and estimated energy savings, carbon dioxide savings, investment costs, and operation and maintenance costs for each of the measures. We constructed an energy conservation supply curve for the US cement industry which found a total cost-effective energy saving of 11% of 1994 energy use for cement making and a saving of 5% of total 1994 carbon dioxide emissions. Assuming the increased production of blended cement, the technical potential for energy efficiency improvement would not change considerably. However, the cost-effective potential would increase to 18% of total energy use, and carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by 16%. This demonstrates that the use of blended cements is a key cost-effective strategy for energy efficiency improvement and carbon dioxide emission reductions in the US cement industry.     

Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang,China

Cities consumed 84% of commercial energy in China, which indicates cities should be the main areas for GHG emissions reduction. Our case study of Shenyang in this paper shows how a clear inventory analysis on GHG emissions at city level can help to identify the major industries and societal sectors for reduction efforts so as to facilitate low-carbon policy-making. The results showed total carbon emission in 2007 was 57 Mt CO₂ equivalents (CO₂e), of which 41 Mt CO₂e was in-boundary emissions and 16 Mt CO₂e was out-of-boundary emissions. The energy sector was dominant in the emission inventory, accounting for 93.1% of total emissions. Within energy sector, emissions from energy production industry, manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 88.4% of this sector. Our analysis showed that comparing with geographical boundary, setting system boundary based on single process standard could provide better information to decision makers for carbon emission reduction. After attributing electricity and heating consumption to final users, the resident and commercial sector became the largest emitter, accounting for 28.5% of total emissions. Spatial analysis of emissions showed that industrial districts such as Shenbei and Tiexi had the large potential to reduce their carbon emissions. Implications of results are finally discussed.     

Analysis on energy intensive industries under Taiwan's climate change policy

This study addresses the planning and implementation of energy, industry, and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the Taiwan's energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change. As a newly industrialized country, Taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low-carbon industries, in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes, through energy and industrial conferences. Thus, in the past year the Taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry; furthermore, it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks. Nevertheless, statistical analysis found that in the last decade, energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, contributions to the GDP, and product value. Industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions, which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value; nevertheless, the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries, and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. This contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure, which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low-carbon economy. Hence, the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures, where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner, and encourage the development of high value-added measures for low-carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy.     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications

This study evaluates the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.     

Energy and transport in comparison: Immaterialisation,dematerialisation and decarbonisation in the EU15 between 1970 and 2000

This article compares the development of transport and energy use with a focus on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the EU15 countries between 1960 and 2000, and separately by each individual EU country between 1970 and 2000. Based on a review on the literature, immaterialisation can be defined as the reduction of energy intensity and transport intensity; dematerialisation can be defined as the reduction in carbon intensity of energy production and the carbon intensity of transport; decarbonisation can be defined as the reduction in (total and transport) carbon intensity of the whole economy. Although there is a clear pattern of reduction in energy intensity of the economy and carbon intensity of energy production, a similar pattern cannot be found in transport. Neither the transport intensity of the economy nor the carbon intensity of transport has been reduced. In particular, freight transport intensity has grown between 1985 and 2000. Data presented by country have shown even more variation. The EU15 countries were aggregated into six groups by cluster analysis to establish the different patterns on each of the three measures. It is concluded that the EU15 countries will have problems in achieving the EU White Paper target of decoupling transport growth from economic growth and the Kyoto target of reducing total CO₂ emissions by 8% from the 1990 level between 2008 and 2012. However, there are some weak signals suggesting a more sustainable passenger transport system.     

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the European glass industry

An in-depth analysis of the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of the European glass industry is presented. The analysis is based on data of the EU ETS for the period 2005–2007 (Phase I). The scope of this study comprises the European glass industry as a whole and its seven subsectors. The analysis is based on an assignment of the glass installations (ca. 450) within the EU ETS to the corresponding subsectors and an adequate matching of the respective production volumes. A result is the assessment of the overall final energy consumption (fuel, electricity) as well as the overall CO₂ emissions (process, combustion and indirect emissions) of the glass industry and its subsectors in the EU25/27. Moreover, figures on fuel mix as well as fuel intensity and CO₂ emissions intensity (i.e. carbon intensity) are presented for each of the subsectors on aggregated levels and for selected EU Member States separately. The average intensity of fuel consumption and direct CO₂ emissions of the EU25 glass industry decreased from 2005 to 2007 by about 4% and amounted in 2007 to 7.8 GJ and 0.57 _tCO₂${\mathrm{t}}_{{\text{CO}}_{\mathrm{2}}}$ per tonne of saleable product, respectively. The economic energy intensity was evaluated with 0.46 toe/1000€ (EU27).     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.     

The estimation of fugitive gas emissions from hydrogen production by natural gas steam reforming

In recent years, a significant amount of interest has been directed towards using hydrogen as an alternative source of energy to fossil fuel. Even though hydrogen is emission free in its end use; the production of hydrogen itself requires energy and may cause process emissions including fugitive emissions from various sources, mainly the piping equipment and fittings. The emissions, even though not as large as stack emissions, they may still pose risks to the environment and health especially to the workers within the plant area. This paper presents the estimation of fugitive emissions from hydrogen production process via natural gas steam reforming. Firstly, the natural gas steam reforming process was simulated before the fugitive emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the process were estimated. Then, the consequent global warming potential (GWP) and the associated health risks due to the emissions were evaluated. A comparison of the GHG fugitive emissions with other sources of GHG emissions over the hydrogen production life cycle was also performed. Methane (CH₄) recorded the highest rate of fugitive emissions contributing to the greatest GWP. On the other hand, CO₂ represented the total stack emissions contributing to 100% of the total GWP. The concentrations of the gases emitted as fugitive emissions (CH₄, CO₂ and CO) in the process area are below the threshold exposure limit indicating that the plant environment is safe for workers daily exposures to the emitted gases.     

The carbon content of Japan–US trade

We analyze the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in trade between Japan and the US, extending the Japanese government's linked Japan–US input–output model to include carbon emission coefficients for each sector. We estimate that in 1995, Japan–US trade reduced US industrial emissions by 14.6 million tons of CO₂-equivalent, and increased emissions in Japan by 6.7 million tons, for a global savings of 7.9 million tons. These quantities are less than one percent of each country's total emissions. Trade with the rest of the world reduced emissions by much larger amounts, roughly four percent of each country's emissions. The sectoral patterns of carbon intensity are strongly correlated between Japan and the US; in addition, greater carbon intensity has a small but significantly positive effect on net exports. Policies that tax or otherwise regulate carbon emissions are needed to discourage this destructive route to competitiveness. However, the most important policy implication may be that US industry could cut its carbon emissions by more than half if it matched the environmental performance of industry in Japan.     

Technical and cost assessment of energy efficiency improvement and greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials in Thai cement industry

The cement industry is one of the most energy-consuming industries in Thailand, with high associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The cement sector accounted for about 20.6 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2005. The fuel intensity of the Thai cement industry was about 3.11 gigajoules (GJ)/tonne cement; the electricity intensity was about 94.3 kWh/tonne cement, and the total primary energy intensity was about 4.09 GJ/tonne cement in 2005 with the clinker to cement ratio of around 82%. In this study, the potential application of 47 energy-efficiency measures is assessed for the Thai cement industry. Using a bottom-up electricity conservation supply curve model, the cost-effective electricity efficiency improvement potential for the Thai cement industry is estimated to be about 265 gigawatt hours (GWh), which accounts for 8% of total electricity use in the cement industry in 2005. Total technical electricity-saving potential is 1,697 GWh, which accounts for 51% of total electricity use in the cement industry in 2005. The CO₂ emission reduction potential associated with the cost-effective electricity savings is 159 kilotonne (kt) CO₂, while the total technical potential for CO₂ emission reductions is 902 ktonne CO₂. The fuel conservation supply curve model shows a cost-effective fuel-efficiency improvement potential of 17,214 terajoules (TJ) and a total technical fuel efficiency improvement potential equal to 21,202 TJ, accounting for 16% and 19% of the total fuel use in the cement industry in 2005, respectively. CO₂ emission reduction potentials associated with cost-effective and technical fuel-saving measures are 2,229 ktonne and 2,603 ktonne, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for discount rate, electricity and fuel prices, and exchange rate that showed the significant influence of these parameters on the results. Hence, the results of the study should be interpreted with caution.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the passenger-car sector in Japan are increasing rapidly and should be reduced cost-effectively in order to stabilize energy-related CO₂ emissions in Japan. The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the most cost-effective mix of vehicles for reducing CO₂ emissions and to estimate the subsidy that is necessary to achieve this vehicle mix. For this analysis, the energy system of Japan from 1988 to 2032 is modeled using a MARKAL model. The most cost-effective mix of vehicles is estimated by minimizing the total energy system cost under the constraint of an 8% energy-related CO₂ emissions reduction nationally by 2030 from the CO₂ emissions of 1990. Based on the results of the analysis, hybrid vehicles are the only type of clean-energy vehicle, and their share of the passenger car sector in 2030 will be 62%. By assuming the subsidization of hybrid vehicles, the same vehicle mix can be achieved without constraining CO₂ emissions. The peak of the total subsidy estimated to be necessary is 1.225 billion US$/year in 2020, but the annual revenue of the assumed 31 US$/t-C carbon tax from the passenger car sector is sufficient to finance the estimated subsidy. This suggests that we should support the dissemination of hybrid vehicles through subsidization based on carbon tax.     

International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?

International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416 Mt to between 876 and 1013 Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand.     

Negative carbon intensity of renewable energy technologies involving biomass or carbon dioxide as inputs

Conventional fossil fuel-based energy technologies can achieve efficiency in energy conversion but they are usually completely inefficient in carbon conversion because they generate significant CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere per unit energy converted. In contrast, some renewable energy technologies characterized by negative carbon intensity can simultaneously achieve efficiency in the conversion of energy and in the conversion of carbon. These carbon negative renewable energy technologies can generate useful energy and remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, either by direct capture and recycling of atmospheric CO₂ or indirectly, by involving biofuels. Interestingly, the deployment of carbon negative renewable energy technologies can offset carbon emissions from conventional fossil fuel-based energy technologies and thus reduce the overall carbon intensity of energy systems.The current review analyzes two groups of renewable energy technologies involving biomass or CO₂ as inputs. The discussions focus on useful techniques which enable to achieve negative carbon intensity of energy while being technologically promising in near-term as well as cost-effective. These analyzes include advanced carbon sequestration concepts such as soil carbon sequestration and CO₂ recycling to useful C-rich products such as fuels and fertilizers. The 'drop-in' of renewable energy is achieved by allowing bioenergy and renewable energies in the form of renewable electricity, renewable thermal energy, solar energy, renewable hydrogen, etc. The carbon negative renewable energy technologies are analyzed and perspectives and constraints of each technology are expounded.     

The long-term relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity in a small open economy: Uruguay 1882–2010

The long-term relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use and economic activity level is estimated for Uruguay between 1882 and 2010. We include CO₂ emissions both in levels and in per capita terms, which allows to analyze if a decoupling exists both in absolute and in relative terms. We also test for the functional form of the relationship, something that is usually missed in the literature, but which is very relevant, because a misspecification could lead to biased estimates. We apply cointegration techniques and estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) for testing whether these variables are endogenous over the long-term while also considering the short-term dynamics. The economic productive structure, the degree of openness, and the share of clean sources in the total energy supply are also considered as explanatory variables. In addition, other variables that measure changes in the economic structure are included to check for robustness of the estimates. The results show that there is a linear relationship (when a log-log transformation is employed) between CO₂ emissions and per capita economic activity level (which would involve an exponential relationship between the non-transformed variables). Moreover, we cannot reject the level-log model, indicating that emissions increase at a decreasing rate in reference to the increase in economic level activity. Emissions increase jointly with the industrial sector's participation in the total output, as a consequence of the intensity of this activity in the consumption of energy from fossil fuel sources. The degree of openness is inversely related to CO₂ emissions. This is because the periods of major opening were based on primary input exports, which are lower in energy intensity than industrial products. The changes in CO₂ emission are inversely related to the variation in the share of clean sources in the total energy supply. Finally, all the variables included in the cointegration vector are endogenous, adjusting together to the deviations from the long-term relationship. As a consequence of the above, economic growth appears not to be enough for diminishing Uruguayan emissions in the long term. Changes in the energy matrix should be encouraged, and emissions reduction should come not through energy constraints but through the development of clean sources, or improvements in energy use efficiency, given the impact of energy on the economic activity level.     

Assessment of the impact of the European CO2 emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry

This paper describes an assessment of the impact of the enforcement of the European carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry, based on cost structure, CO₂ emissions, electricity consumption and allocated allowances data from a survey to four Portuguese representative units of the chemical industry sector, and considering scenarios that allow the estimation of increases on both direct and indirect production costs. These estimated cost increases were also compared with similar data from other European Industries, found in the references and with conclusions from simulation studies. Thus, it was possible to ascertain the impact of buying extra CO₂ emission permits, which could be considered as limited. It was also found that this impact is somewhat lower than the impacts for other industrial sectors.