Designing carbon markets. Part I: Carbon markets in time

This paper analyses the design of carbon markets in time (i.e., intertemporally). It is part of a twin set of papers that ask, starting from first principles, what an optimal global carbon market would look like by around 2030. Our focus is on firm-level cap-and-trade systems, although much of what we say would also apply to government-level trading and carbon offset schemes. We examine the “first principles” of temporal design that would help to maximise flexibility and to minimise costs, including banking and borrowing and other mechanisms to provide greater carbon price predictability and credibility over time.     

Defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data

Given the importance of coal in world energy supply an analysis of the relevant geographic market is essential for consumers, producers, as well as for competition policy. The purpose of this paper is to define the relevant economic market for steam and coking coal, and to test the hypothesis of single world markets for these coal products. Methodologically the paper relies on two different tests for defining markets, using both shipments data and price data. The results from both methods point in the same direction. In the case of coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope, and also that the market has become more integrated over time. The results for steam coal show that the market is more regional in scope, and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time. One policy implication of the finding that the steam coal market is more regional in scope, and thus that the market boundary is smaller than if the market would have been international, is that a merger and acquisition in this market likely would have been of a more concern for antitrust authorities than the same activity on the coking coal market.     

LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model

Evidence exists that global natural gas markets have become more integrated over time. One possible explanation for this increased level of integration is that increased liquefied natural gas trade has increased the opportunity for price arbitrage by decreasing transport costs. If this explanation is true, then the natural gas market should become relatively more integrated because countries separated by large distances would be more willing to trade with each other. We employ a gravity model to test whether trade in liquefied natural gas has helped to de-regionalize the total natural gas market, using trade in the compressed natural gas market as a comparison benchmark. The results indicate that liquefied natural gas is indeed a global commodity, whereas the compressed natural gas markets are more regional. Importantly, we find that trade in liquefied natural gas has de-regionalized the total natural gas market.     

Oil price shocks,global financial markets and their connectedness

This paper extends the literature on the relationship between oil price shocks and financial markets by examining the effect of oil shocks on the sovereign bond markets of a large number of advanced and emerging economies and exploring the impact of oil shocks on the degree of connectedness among international financial markets. We show that the effect of oil price shocks is not only limited to stock market returns, but also extends to bond markets, even after controlling for discount rate shocks as well as aggregate capital market effects. Unlike the case for stock markets, the effect on sovereign bonds is found to be rather heterogeneous (in terms of size and sign) and primarily driven by demand related shocks. We also show that oil price shocks serve as a driver of connectedness patterns across global financial markets, although the effect on connectedness depends on the nature of the oil market shock and the economic characteristics of the countries. Overall, the findings highlight the role of crude oil as a driver of not only of return dynamics in global stock and bond markets, but also of global financial connectedness patterns.     

Market efficiency in the European carbon markets

In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO₂ markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO₂ markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO₂ market.     

How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics

Carbon allowances are a new class of financial instrument which aim to assist in limiting the extent and impact of global warming and climate change. The feedback mechanism in the “Carbon-Energy-Finance” system makes the information connectedness dynamics more complex since we add equity, bond and non-energy commodity assets into the system. Using modified error variance decomposition and network diagrams, we quantify and systematically analyze how the European carbon market connects with information from a wide range of other markets. Our results indicate: (i) the nature of information spillover changes over time, with system-wide return connectedness being higher and more variable than the volatility interdependence; (ii) both the oil and carbon markets closely connect with equity and non-energy commodity markets rather than bond markets; (iii) we identify three structural breaks in carbon volatility and their implication for carbon-finance linkages; (iv) financial risk-type macroeconomic factors make greater contributions to system-wide connectedness than commodity factors. These findings have economic implications for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers.     

The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks.     

Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects.     

Policy interactions,risk and price formation in carbon markets

Carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement. Price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets, dynamic technology costs, and market rules. Carbon pricing may under-deliver investment due to R&D externalities, requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices. Also, abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning-by-doing. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets. The framework extends the usual static MAC representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics. The analysis indicates that supporting large-scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement, sometimes to zero, whilst increasing total abatement costs. However, support for early stage R&D may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk. An important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation, as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations.     

Analysis of a wind farm's revenue in the British and Spanish markets

The composition of the revenue of a wind generation company (WGENCO) under two different European markets is estimated in this paper. The two markets under consideration (British and Spanish) have a very different structure; the Spanish market is a pool-based system while the British market encourages bilateral trading. These markets have also different ways to provide incentives to wind farms, and deal with the trading imbalances to which they are particularly susceptible given the variability of the resource. All these conditions are explained and accounted for in our study of a hypothetical WGENCO that can participate in the two markets. Real wind profiles, two wind-speed forecasting tools and market rules and conditions are used to estimate the WGENCO's revenue over a period of 3 months. Our results show that the net revenue would have been fairly similar under the two market structures; however, the composition of this revenue shows significant differences in terms of renewable incentives and generation revenue.     

Time-varying co-movements between energy market and global financial markets: Implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies

This study explores the time patterns of volatility spillovers between energy market and stock prices of seven major global financial markets including clean energy, energy, information technology corporations, equity markets and United States economic policy index over the period vary from December 28, 2000 to December 31, 2018. We employ a time domain connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (DY, 2009, 2012 and 2014) to examine spillover mechanism of volatility shocks across future markets. Optimal weights and hedge ratios are calculated for portfolio diversification and risk management. The main findings of the study conclude that oil shocks are exogenous and contribution of oil market volatility to global financial markets is insignificant. The returns of World Stock Index and World Energy Index are major transmitters of volatility to clean energy market. Moreover, the impact of energy market become strong in global financial market when data is divided into pre, during and post financial crisis periods. Finally, the hedge ratios are volatile over time and their maximum value is observed during the financial crisis period of 2008–09. The optimal portfolio between energy and stock prices are heavily weighted to the stock markets.     

双碳目标下我国碳市场发展分析及建议

  目的  碳排放权交易（碳交易）在全球范围内正日益成为有效促进温室气体减排的市场机制或政策工具。面向“双碳”发展目标,适时开展碳排放权交易市场（碳市场）分析研究,对推动我国碳市场健康有序发展具有重要意义。  方法  梳理了欧美相对成熟碳市场的发展情况,总结了国内试点碳市场的建设经验,并对全国碳市场第一个履约期内的运行状况进行了分析。  结果  我国碳市场目前主要存在制度体系建设尚不健全、覆盖行业与交易结构较为单一、碳配额分配科学性及公平性有待提升、多市场联动效应较弱等不足。  结论  建议立足我国基本国情,未来重点围绕顶层设计、市场体系、调控机制、国际合作等方面开展工作。     

Interaction among China carbon emission trading markets: Nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect

China makes great efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate global greenhouse gas. In order to identify the interaction among China CET markets, this paper comprehensively investigates nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect in markets by using the Hiemstra and Jones (HJ) test, Diks and Panchenko (DP) test and time-varying parameter structure vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. The empirical analysis has demonstrated China major CET markets significantly bidirectional nonlinear Granger cause each other. As to time-varying effect, we have obtained convincing findings that time-varying impulse responses are among China major CET markets in the short term. Specifically, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen CET markets are time-varying co-movement, negatively or positively related to each other over time, implying there are deep bases for China national CET market construction. Furthermore, the specific time point impulse effects support our discoveries in time-varying impulse responses.     

Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill

We examine the impact of the Clean Energy Bill on the price behavior of electricity futures contracts in the Australian National Electricity Market. First, we compute ex-ante forward risk premiums in the pre-tax period (until June 2012), then derive market-implied expectations about additional costs of the Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM) on generators as well as pass-through rates during the carbon tax (July 2012–June 2014) and post-tax (after July 2014) periods. Our results suggest that the observed carbon premiums became increasingly higher, once the carbon tax had been proposed and subsequently legislated in 2011. During periods where market participants could be relatively certain that the tax would be effective, we find expected carbon pass-through rates between 67% and 150%, which seem to be inversely related to emission intensities in the regional markets. Our results are also a clear indication of strong policy uncertainty with regards to the CPM and suggest that in the future a stable and long-term policy framework would be required for a carbon pricing mechanism to have its full effect.     

Electricity market integration,decarbonisation and security of supply: Dynamic volatility connectedness in the Irish and Great Britain markets

This study investigates the volatility connectedness between the Irish and Great Britain electricity markets and how it is driven by changes in energy policy, institutional structures and political ideologies. We assess various aspects of this volatility connectedness including static (unconditional) vs dynamic (conditional), symmetric vs asymmetric characteristics between 2009 and 2018. We find that the volatility connectedness is time-varying and it is significantly affected by important events, policy reforms or market re-designs such as Brexit, oil price slump, an increasing share of renewables, and fluctuations in the exchange rates. Our asymmetric analysis shows that magnitude of the good volatility connectedness is marginally larger than that of the bad volatility connectedness. Our result suggests that good volatility levels would be even higher once the Irish market adopts the carbon price floor. Therefore, supporting renewable generation by setting an appropriate price of carbon in interconnected wholesale electricity markets will improve market integration.     

Modeling price-driven interactions between wood bioenergy and global wood product markets

Higher and more volatile liquid fossil fuel prices have had profound effects on international energy and wood product markets. Understanding this evolving economic and technological landscape requires economic models that capture the interconnections between energy markets and wood product markets, and can be used to forecast the impact of alternative policy and market incentives. The need for such an analytic framework is underscored by the consensus that efficiently produced wood bioenergy could provide many climate benefits compared to fossil-fuel intensive substitutes.A model is presented for analysis of how increased use of wood bioenergy, in the forms of fuelwood, cellulosic ethanol from woody biomass, and electricity produced from wood, might interact with global markets for wood products; liquid, solid, and gaseous fuels; and electricity produced from other sources. It links U.S. energy markets with wood product markets and endogenizes the demand for wood bioenergy with price-driven market clearing mechanisms. Projections made with the model point to a substantial increase in demand for woody cellulosic ethanol in the U.S. for the next 30 years if oil prices remain high.     

How do China's petrochemical markets react to oil price jumps? A comparative analysis of stocks and commodities

The profound impacts of oil price jumps have caught the attention of scholars. Because the 2008 global financial crisis has seemingly already passed, the existence of oil price jumps is in doubt. In this paper, we provide evidence that the threat of dynamic jumps still exists in the global oil market in the post-crisis period, while the stocks and commodities of China's petrochemical markets are both affected by those jumps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of the reaction of petrochemical markets to oil price jumps in the post-crisis period. In addition, a comparative analysis of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodity market is provided. In particular, we analyze the reactions of the returns and volatility of these markets to oil price jumps. We obtained the following findings. First, the returns of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodities are both negatively affected by current oil price jumps, while the effects of lagged jumps on these returns are opposite. Theoretically, the former is a reflection of panic induced by extreme risk information, while the latter is a reflection of rationality in speculators. Second, the volatilities of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodities respond differently to oil price jumps. The former is not affected, whereas the latter is positively and negatively affected by current and last oil price jumps, respectively. Finally, all the above conclusions still hold when considering the effects of normal oil price volatility, even after the co-movement between oil prices and petrochemical markets is eliminated.     

Mapping out the regulatory environment and its interaction with land and property markets

The purpose of this paper is to explain how the regulatory environment created by planning and building regulations interacts with land and property markets. Since this regulatory environment operates as a form of intervention within property markets in general and the development process in particular, it is essential first to understand the nature, structure and operation of land and property markets. These are covered in the first section. The second section identifies the aims and components of the planning system and building regulations. From this basis, four broad types of policy intervention are reviewed in the third section. These cover policies that seek to shape, regulate or stimulate market activity, and those that aim to build state or market capacity to produce desired outcomes. The final section uses the private residential development process as a case study to explore the extent to which state intervention can influence producer–consumer relationships in one important market sector. The paper argues that effective intervention in land and property markets requires the creation of a broad range of policy tools and their appropriate deployment to suit particular market circumstances.     

Price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation

In commodity markets, price volatility may rise significantly if the product granularity increases. To gain insights into the underlying drivers, we analyze price volatility based on the example of German electricity markets. We develop a theoretical model to reproduce the price formation in the day-ahead and intraday auction which are sequential short-term electricity markets with 60-minute and 15-minute products. As cross-border trade is allowed in the day-ahead but not in the intraday auction, the model accounts for the impact of restricted market participation. The theoretical model is then transferred into an empirical analysis to first validate the modeling approach and second to comparatively assess the impact of increasing product granularity and restricted market participation. The empirical results indicate that the disproportional rise in quarter-hourly price volatility is mainly triggered by limited market participation and not only by the high volatility of renewable supply and demand. Since restricted market participation refers to a lack of market coupling, we derive a proxy for efficiency losses ranging from EUR 55 million to EUR 108 million that may be reduced if markets are coupled.     

Developing markets for renewable energy technologies

Although renewable energy resources are now being utilised more on a global scale than ever before, there is no doubt their contribution to the energy economy can still be greatly increased. Recently international support for developing these relatively new sources of energy has been driven by their benefits as assessed by reduced environmental impact, particularly reduced greenhouse gas emissions.After several decades of continuous but somewhat erratic funding for research and development of renewables, it is time to take stock of the key issues to be addressed in terms of implementation of major renewable energy programmes on a large scale worldwide. One of the first steps in this process is the identification and encouragement of reliable continuous markets both in developed and developing nations. Future energy policy and planning scenarios should take into account the factors necessary to integrate renewables in all their diverse forms into the normal energy economy of the country.Other critical factors in market development will include the mass production of high quality, reliable and reasonable cost technical products and the provision of adequate finance for demonstrating market ready and near market renewables equipment.Government agencies need to aid in the removal of legislative and institutional barriers hindering the widespread introduction of non-conventional energy sources and to encourage the implementation of government purchasing schemes.Recent moves by companies in Australia to market ‘green energy’ to customers should also aid in the public awareness of the ultimate potential of renewables leading to greater use in the industrial, commercial and domestic sectors.