Energy security policies in EU-25—The expected cost of oil supply disruptions

A framework for analyzing the impact on the expected cost of oil disruption by energy policies in EU-25 is developed. The framework takes into account how energy policies affect the oil market, the expected oil price increase, and the disruption costs. OPEC's strategic behavior is modelled as a dominant firm, and the model includes price interdependence between different energy commodities to better estimate the cost of an oil disruption. It is found that substituting pellets for oil in households and using imported sugar cane ethanol are cost-efficient policies if greenhouse gas benefits are included. Domestically produced wheat ethanol is not found to be cost-efficient even if both the expected cost of oil disruption and greenhouse gas benefits are included, the same also holds for hybrid vehicles. The gross expected economic gain of the policies is found to be between 9 and 22 €/bbl oil replaced.     

Gradual green tax reforms

Green tax reforms have become an important tool not only in protecting the environment but also in bringing about a more efficient tax system. However, reforms often imply accepting sacrifices in the short-run and bring about the risk of potential political opposition. Within this framework, the debate on whether to implement green tax reforms in one-step or gradually becomes of great interest. In this paper, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the Spanish economy, to evaluate different reforms that consist in increasing energy taxes and adjusting capital taxation in a revenue-neutral framework. Our findings show that, although an environmental dividend is always granted, the existence of an efficiency dividend depends on the type of reform, its size and how gradually it is implemented. Thus, one-step reforms that produce an efficiency dividend would imply large efficiency costs in the short-run. In this case, the reform could only produce efficiency gains in the short-run if it is implemented gradually, although such gains would end up disappearing in the long-run.     

Modelling the impact of energy taxation

Energy taxation in Sweden is complicated and strongly guides and governs district energy production. Consequently, there is a need for methods for accurate calculation and analysis of effects that different energy tax schemes may have on district energy utilities. Here, a practicable method to analyse influence of such governmental policy measures is demonstrated. The Swedish Government has for some years now been working on a reform of energy taxation, and during this process, several interest groups have expressed their own proposals for improving and developing the system of energy taxation. Together with the present system of taxation, four new alternatives, including the proposed directive of the European Commission, are outlined in the paper. In a case study, an analysis is made of how the different tax alternatives may influence the choice of profitable investments and use of energy carriers in a medium‐sized district‐heating utility. The calculations are made with a linear‐programming model framework. By calculating suitable types and sizes of new investments, if any, and the operation of existing and potential plants, total energy costs are minimized. Results of the analysis include the most profitable investments, which fuel should be used, roughly when during a year plants should be in operation, and at what output. In most scenarios, the most profitable measure is to invest in a waste incineration plant. However, a crucial assumption is, with reference to the new Swedish waste disposal act, a significant income from incinerating refuse. Without this income, different tax schemes result in different technical solutions being most profitable. An investment in cogeneration seems possible in only one scenario. It is also found that particular features of some alternatives seem to oppose both main governmental policy goals, and intentions of the district heating company. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The empirical effects of a gasoline tax on CO2 emissions reductions from transportation sector in Korea

The introduction of carbon tax is expected to mitigate GHG emissions cost-effectively. With this expectation identifying the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand and GHG emission reductions is an interesting issue. One of the basic methods of estimating these impacts is using the price elasticity.     

Input–output analysis of alternative policies implemented on the energy activities: An application for Catalonia

The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic impact of alternative policies implemented on the energy activities of the Catalan production system. Specifically, we analyze the effects of a tax on intermediate energy uses, a reduction in intermediate energy demand, and a tax on intermediate uses combined with a reduction in intermediate energy demand. The methodology involves two versions of the input–output price model: a competitive price formulation and a mark-up price formulation. The input–output price framework will make it possible to evaluate how the alternative measures modify production prices, consumption prices, private real income, and intermediate energy uses. The empirical application is for the Catalan economy and uses economic data for the year 2001. The combination of a tax on energy uses and an improvement in the energy efficiency of the production system is a measure that accomplishes both economic and environmental goals, since it has no effects on prices, it has a positive effect on private real income and, finally, energy consumption is considerably reduced.     

Economic potential of energy-efficient retrofitting in the Swiss residential building sector: The effects of policy instruments and energy price expectations

The aim of this paper is to analyse the profitability of energy-efficient retrofit investments in the Swiss residential building sector from the house owner's perspective. Different energy price expectations, policy instruments such as subsidies, income tax deduction and a carbon tax, as well as potential future cost degression of energy efficiency measures were taken into account. The discounted cash flow method was used for the investment analysis of different retrofit packages applied to a model building scheduled for renovation, i.e. a single-family house constructed between 1948 and 1975. The results show that present Swiss policy instruments push investments for energy-efficient retrofitting to profitability. Cost degression has a minor significance for investment profitability. However, the most relevant factor for the investment analysis is the expected energy price. Expecting a future fuel oil price at the level of 2005, efficiency investments are close to profitability even without policy support. If higher energy prices were expected, energy-efficient retrofitting would be an attractive investment opportunity.     

Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis.     

North Sea oil taxes and the sharing of risk — a comparative case study

The cash flows associated with North Sea oilfields are evaluated in terms of probability distributions of net present value. A simulation shows that, despite structural differences, the ability of the UK and Norwegian oil tax systems to distribute stochastic return between owners and government is remarkably similar. However, a doubled special oil tax would be considerably more consequential in Norway than in the UK, where the effect parallels that of a recent proposal to radically change the tax package. When leverage is increased in either country, rising expected return to equity and falling expected tax revenue are not accompanied by a redistribution of risk from government to owners. Moreover, the governments seem to carry a relatively higher share of price uncertainty.     

Tax incentives to promote green electricity: An overview of EU-27 countries

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the main tax incentives used in the EU-27 member states (MSs) to promote green electricity. Sixteen MSs use tax incentives to promote green electricity simultaneously with other promotion measures, especially quota obligations and price regulation. However, not all available technologies are promoted. For example, six MSs (Germany, Romania, Slovak Republic, Denmark, Sweden and Poland) have included an exemption on the payments of excise duties for electricity when the electricity is generated from renewable energy sources (RES). This tax incentive is the most widely used. Limited tax incentives in personal income tax are available in Belgium, France, Czech Republic and Luxembourg. In corporate tax, tax incentives consist mainly of a deduction in the taxable profit (Belgium, Greece, Czech Republic and Spain). Lower tax rates in VAT are applied in three MSs, France, Italy and Portugal. Only Spain and Italy use effective tax incentives in property tax. As a great diversity of tax incentives has been used to promote green electricity, this adds another difficulty to the EU objective of providing a renewable energy policy framework, but also it offers a useful set of case studies which can be used to inform EU policy development.     

中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路

利用IPAC模型对我国未来中长期的能源与温室气体排放情景进行分析。设计了3个排放情景,介绍了情景的主要参数和结果,以及实现减排所需的技术,同时探讨中国实现低碳情景所需要的发展路径。作为一个经济快速增长国家,中国未来的能源需求和相应的温室气体排放将快速明显增加。中国要实现低碳发展路径,必须从现在就采取适合于低碳发展的政策,着重发展具有国际领先地位的重大清洁能源开发、转换和利用技术,大力发展可再生能源和核电技术,提高公众意识,使低碳生活方式成为普遍行为,逐步实施能源税和碳税。     

Optimal strategic oil stockpiling and import tariffs: The case of China

As two of the most important instruments for dealing with the issues of energy supply security, strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) and oil import tariffs have been proven effective in developed countries. While China is currently building up its strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security, it is of great importance to investigate China's optimal oil stockpiling policies while taking into account the possibility of imposing an import tariff or quota, which can also be used for alleviating the energy insecurity of an oil-importing country. Employing a dynamic programming framework, this paper examines the optimal SPR policies and oil import tariffs or quotas for China and the interactions between the two instruments under different scenarios for the world oil market. The results show that the combination of optimal tariffs and SPR policies can substantially reduce the expected oil insecurity cost for China; the effect is larger when the probability that a disruption will continue is higher.     

A multiple objective decision making model for energy generation portfolio under fuzzy uncertainty: Case study of large scale investor-owned utilities in Florida

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to evaluate the viability of developing solar photovoltaic projects for large investor-owned utilities. By taking into account the trade-off between the cost per kWh of electricity generation and total risk for an investor-owned utility, a multi-objective model of the energy generation portfolios is developed. The decision making model can determine the proportion of different energy generation sources in an investor-owned utility portfolio that reduces risk while providing the lowest cost per kWh of electricity generation possible. In order to measure the risk of the investor-owned utility for energy portfolio selection, an investigation of possible dangers and failures of energy generation portfolios is made and 9 main failure modes are identified. The failure mode and effects analysis is employed to calculate the risk priority numbers for each risk. To deal with the uncertainties of the levelized cost of electricity and risk levels of failure modes, the fuzzy method is introduced and an equivalent crisp model is derived which is then solved by employing a multiple objective particle swarm optimization algorithm. The analysis for four large scale investor-owned utilities in Florida is presented to highlight the performance of the developed optimization method.     

Survey of Western U.S. electric utility resource plans

We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 – before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.     

Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 GW from 2007 to 2020. The country’s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China’s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China’s wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.     

INDOOR SIMULATION OF A BASIN-TYPE SOLAR STILL

In this paper we develop an applied general equilibrium framework for assessing socio-economic impacts of alternative renewable energy policies and apply it to the bioenergy sector. The policy scenarios are assessed in a comparative static analysis. The numerical simulation results allow us to assess and compare welfare and distributional impacts of alternative renewable energy policies. Our empirical findings suggest that the bioenergy sector in Poland would benefit most from an indirect tax reduction. According to our simulation results, reducing the fossil energy sectors’ subsidies would be the second best policy option.     

How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand,CO2 emissions,and economy in China?

Energy savings and CO₂ emission reduction have become a major issue in recent years. Taxes on energy production sectors may be an effective way to save energy, reduce CO₂ emissions, and improve environmental quality. This paper constructs a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of the energy tax on energy, economy, and environment from the perspective of tax rates and tax forms (specific tax and ad valorem tax). The results show that adjusting the tax system and the tax rate has important implications for energy conservation while having minor impacts on the output of other industries. The impact of an increasing energy tax on the energy demand is greater than the impact on sectoral output, indicating that energy efficiency will be increased to some extent. The CO₂ reduction will increase over time when an ad valorem tax is implemented on enterprises. We found that ad valorem tax has greater elasticity of economic output, energy demand, and CO₂ emission reduction. The results support the direction of China's resource tax reform. However, we argue that it is better to increase the tax rate relatively and relax the control on energy prices so that energy efficiency will increase.     

Alternative energy development in the USA The effectiveness of state government incentives

This paper presents a rationale for government incentives to alternative energy development in the USA. The effectiveness of the major incentives now in use by state governments is tested empirically by using active solar residential hot water installations data for the USA. The results suggest that state income tax credits and increases in conventional fuel (ie natural gas) prices through taxation or other means appear to be having the expected effect of increasing the number of solar collectors installed. From these data, property tax exemptions do not appear to be effective in promoting alternative energy development. The data on sales tax exemptions and grant or loan programmes are inconclusive. Untested incentives, including direct regulation, and saved-energy and non-targeted incentives, provide opportunities for further research.     

A MILP model for integrated plan and evaluation of distributed energy systems

In the last decade, technological innovations and a changing economic and regulatory environment have resulted in a renewed interest for distributed energy resources (DER). However, because of the lack of a suitable design tool, the expected potential of DER penetration is not always exerted sufficiently. In this paper, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model has been developed for the integrated plan and evaluation of DER systems. Given the site’s energy loads, local climate data, utility tariff structure, and information (both technical and financial) on candidate DER technologies, the model minimizes overall energy cost for a test year by selecting the units to install and determining their operating schedules. Furthermore, the economic, energetic and environmental effects of the DER system can be evaluated. As an illustrative example, an investigation has been conducted of economically optimal DER system for an eco-campus in Kitakyushu, Japan. The result illustrates that gas engine is currently the most popular DER technology from the economic point of view. Although holding reasonable economic merits, unless combined with heat recovery units, the introduction of DER technologies may result in marginal or even adverse environmental effects. Furthermore, according to the results of sensitivity analysis, the optimal system combination and corresponding economic and environmental performances are more or less sensitive to the scale of energy demand, energy prices (both electricity and city gas), as well as carbon tax rate.     

Modeling business risk: The effect of regulatory revision on renewable energy investment - The Iberian case

Regulatory risk is commonly accepted as one of the most important risks in the energy business, particularly renewable energy. With the recent changes (in June 2014) in the Spanish regulatory framework, investors' returns might be significantly affected. Further, as the Spanish and the Portuguese electricity systems are integrated, a change in the regulatory framework of Spain might also affect renewable energy policies and investment strategies in Portugal. This study is a projection of business risk under the assumption that the Portuguese government may adopt similar regulatory changes. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the data under different scenarios. Applying Net Present Value and Real Options approaches, a 50 MW wind power project is evaluated. This study has considered the delay option to study five regulatory scenarios. A higher value for the delay option suggests that a high financial loss is expected if new wind power projects of similar capacity are implemented under the new regulatory framework.     

A review of the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is endowed with significant oil and gas resources and is expected to become one of the world's top 10 oil producers within the next decade. The high cost of doing business in the country, however, means that Kazakhstan will need to improve its institutional framework to successfully compete for Western investment. A large degree of risk and uncertainty continues to plague the oil and gas sector as the government makes significant changes to the petroleum tax legislation and takes an aggressive approach in “rebalancing” contractual arrangements with industry. High levels of bureaucracy, regulatory burden, and corruption persist, and economic factors appear to be subordinated increasingly to geopolitical objectives aimed to strengthen relationships with China and Russia. The rapid pace of change and the high degree of uncertainty present significant challenges and risk to foreign investment. The purpose of this paper is to review the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan and highlight recent developments in the petroleum legislation, business climate and government policy.