Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles—A low-carbon solution for Ireland?

Between 1990 and 2006, the primary energy requirement of the Irish transport sector increased by 166%. Associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have followed a corresponding trajectory, and are responsible—at least in part—for Ireland’s probable failure to meet its Kyoto targets. As in most countries, Ireland’s transport sector is almost totally reliant on oil—a commodity for which Ireland is totally dependent on imports—and therefore vulnerable to supply and price shocks. Conversely, the efficiency and carbon intensity of the Irish electricity supply system have both improved dramatically over the same period, with significant further improvements projected over the coming decade. This paper analyses the prospects for leveraging these changes by increasing the electrification of the Irish transport sector. Specifically, the potential benefits of plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEV) are assessed, in terms of reducing primary energy requirement (PER) and CO₂ emissions. It is shown that, on a per-km basis, PHEV offer the potential for reductions of 50% or more in passenger car PER and CO₂ intensity. However, the time required to turn over the existing fleet means that a decade or more will be required to significantly impact PER and emissions of the PC fleet.     

Sectoral CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: Preparing for DOHA 2020

In this study, CO₂ emissions in different sectors in Turkey were examined in order to serve as a foundation for planning future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. These reductions are being planned in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, of which Turkey is a signatory, and which was re-examined by the Doha Climate Change Conference in 2009. For this purpose, variation of the total factor efficiencies of CO₂ emissions per capita for many developed and developing countries including Turkey (35 countries in total) were examined by data envelopment analysis and Malmquist Index approaches. It was aimed to determine the sectors in Turkey that should be the primary foci for reductions of CO₂ emissions and which actions might be taken before Doha 2020 oriented towards reductions in CO₂ emissions in these sectors. Meanwhile, current regulations and perspectives for greenhouse gas plans developed within the scope of Vision 2023 were discussed.     

Comprehensive evaluation of industrial CO2 emission (1989–2004) in Taiwan by input–output structural decomposition

Taiwan currently emits approximately 1% of the world's CO₂—ranking it 22nd among nations. Herein, we use the input–output (I–O) structural decomposition method to examine the changes in CO₂ emission over a 15-year period. By decomposing the CO₂ emission changes into nine factors for the periods of 1989–1994, 1994–1999, and 1999–2004, we have identified the key factors causing the emission changes, as well as the most important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. The 5-year increment with the largest increase of CO₂ emission was that of 1999–2004, due to the rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the decomposition, the industrial energy coefficient and the CO₂ emission factors were identified as the most important parameters for the determination of the highway, petrochemical materials, iron and steel, the commercial sector, and electric machinery as the major sources of increased CO₂ emission during the past 15 years. From 1989 to 2004, the level of exports and the level of domestic final demand were the largest contributors to the increase in the total increment of CO₂ change. During 1989–2004, the industrial energy coefficient and CO₂ emission factors, being minimally significant during 1989–1994, became extremely important, joining the domestic final demand and the level of exports factors as the major causes of the increase increment of CO₂. This indicates a heavy reliance upon high-energy (and CO₂) intensity for Taiwanese industries; therefore, continuous efforts to improve energy intensity and fuel mix toward lower carbon are important for CO₂ reduction, especially for the electricity and power generation sectors. Relevant strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from major industries are also highlighted.     

CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China’s chemical industry

GHG (Increasing greenhouse gas) emissions in China imposes enormous pressure on China’s government and society. The increasing GHG trend is primarily driven by the fast expansion of high energy-intensive sectors including the chemical industry. This study investigates energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the processes of chemical production in China through calculating the amounts of CO₂ emissions and estimating the reduction potential in the near future. The research is based on a two-level perspective which treats the entire industry as Level one and six key sub-sectors as Level two, including coal-based ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda, coal-based methanol, sodium carbonate, and yellow phosphorus. These two levels are used in order to address the complexity caused by the fact that there are more than 40 thousand chemical products in this industry and the performance levels of the technologies employed are extremely uneven. Three scenarios with different technological improvements are defined to estimate the emissions of the six sub-sectors and analyze the implied reduction potential in the near future. The results highlight the pivotal role that regulation and policy administration could play in controlling the CO₂ emissions by promoting average technology performances in this industry.     

CO2 emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry: A decomposition analysis

In this study, CO₂ emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry are calculated by using the fuel consumption data at ISIC revision 2, four digit level. Study covers 57 industries, for the 1995–2001 period. Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to decompose the changes in the CO₂ emissions of manufacturing industry into five components; changes in activity, activity structure, sectoral energy intensity, sectoral energy mix and emission factors. Mainly, it is found that changes in total industrial activity and energy intensity are the primary factors determining the changes in CO₂ emissions during the study period. It is also indicated that among the fuels used, coal is the main determining factor and among the sectors, 3710 (iron and steel basic industries) is the dirtiest sector dominating the industrial CO₂ emissions in the Turkish manufacturing industry.     

Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005–2007) and the second phase (2008–2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO₂-emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO₂-emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO₂-emission prices over €15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies).     

A comparative study on the energy policies in Japan and Malaysia in fulfilling their nations’ obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol

Global warming and the associated changes in the world climate pattern have been accepted world wide as the gravest threat to humanity in the 20th century. To mitigate the impacts of global warming, the Kyoto Protocol was established in 1997 with the objective of reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, in particular carbon dioxide (CO₂), by 5.2% below 1990 levels. Developed nations that ratified the Protocol are committed to GHG reduction targets while developing nations are encouraged to reduce GHG emissions on a voluntary basis. Since most of the GHGs emissions come from the energy sector, energy policy plays an important role in fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This year marks the beginning of the commitment period for the 2012 Kyoto Protocol. In this case, it would be worthwhile to compare the energy policies in Malaysia and Japan as these nations move towards fulfilling their obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol; bearing in mind that both countries ratified the Protocol, but that Japan commits a reduction target of 6% while Malaysia bears no obligation. Based on the comparison, recommendations were made on how a developing nation like Malaysia could adopt the policies implemented in Japan to suit local conditions and contribute significantly to GHG reduction.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility: An input–output approach for the Turkish economy

Recently, global warming (greenhouse effect) and its effects have become one of the hottest topics in the world agenda. There have been several international attempts to reduce the negative effects of global warming. The Kyoto Protocol can be cited as the most important agreement which tries to limit the countries’ emissions within a time horizon. For this reason, it becomes important to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions of countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the amount of CO₂—the most important greenhouse gas—emissions, for the Turkish economy. An extended input–output model is estimated by using 1996 data in order to identify the sources of CO₂ emissions and to discuss the share of sectors in total emission. Besides, ‘CO₂ responsibility’, which takes into account the CO₂ content of imports, is estimated for the Turkish economy. The sectoral CO₂ emissions and CO₂ responsibilities are compared and these two notions are linked to foreign trade volume. One of the main conclusions is that the manufacturing industry has the first place in both of the rankings for CO₂ emissions and CO₂ responsibilities, while agriculture and husbandry has the last place.     

A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO₂ emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO₂ emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO₂ emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO₂ emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO₂ emissions estimation models.     

Methodology for assessing emission reduction of truck-only toll lanes

The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the largest component of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, emitted from heavy trucks is second only to passenger cars in terms of GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Truck-only toll (TOT) lanes have been proposed in several cities as a means of improving truck flows and reducing freeway congestion. This paper describes an analysis that utilized the US EPA's MOBILE6.2 vehicle emissions modeling software to identify freeway locations with large pollutant emissions and estimated the changes in emission associated with TOT lanes. Emissions including hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and CO₂ were estimated by multiplying vehicle kilometers traveled by emission factors associated with various vehicle types and average speeds. The CO₂ calculation was limited due to lack of sensitivity in the model of speed variation, which is one of the benefits of the implementation of TOT lanes. Mechanical equations of engine horsepower involving the change in vehicle speeds is applied to estimate the change in CO₂ fuel consumption and then converted to estimate the change in CO₂ emissions. The results show that voluntary and mandatory use of TOT lanes would reduce total CO₂ emissions on all freeway lanes by 62% and 60%.     

Welfare effects of emission taxes in Norway

The welfare effects of introducing taxes on emissions of carbon dioxide is analysed within an empirical general equilibrium model of the Norwegian economy. A CO₂ tax regime where we aim at stabilizing the CO₂ emissions at the 1990 emission level in 2020 is compared to a reference scenario without such taxes. In the simulations introduction of CO₂ taxes reduces gross domestic product, but increases net national real disposable income, private consumption and money metric utility. This difference in sign is due to a positive terms of trade effect; some of the CO₂ taxes will be paid by foreigners through exports. The welfare effects differ from household to household depending on the composition of their total consumption. Poor households are less favourably affected than rich households, due to smaller budget shares for the rich households on consumer goods which imply relatively much CO₂ emissions.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Decomposition analysis and mitigation strategies of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in South Korea

Energy-related CO₂ emissions in South Korea have increased substantially, outpacing those of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since 1990. To mitigate CO₂ emissions in South Korea, we need to understand the main contributing factors to rising CO₂ levels as part of the effort toward developing targeted policies. This paper aims to analyze the specific trends and influencing factors that have caused changes in emissions patterns in South Korea over a 15-year period. To this end, we employed the Log Mean Divisia index method with five energy consumption sectors and seven sub-sectors in terms of fuel mix (FM), energy intensity (EI), structural change (SC) and economic growth (EG). The results showed that EG was a dominant explanation for the increase in CO₂ emissions in all of the sectors. The results also demonstrated that FM causes CO₂ reduction across the array of sectors with the exception of the energy supply sector. CO₂ reduction as a function of SC was also observed in manufacturing, services and residential sectors. Furthermore, EI was an important driver of CO₂ reduction in most sectors except for several manufacturing sub-sectors. Based on these findings, it appears that South Korea should implement climate change policies that consider the specific influential factors associated with increasing CO₂ emissions in each sector.     

Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan–China trade

This paper examines CO₂ emissions embodied in Japan–China trade. Besides directly quantifying the flow of CO₂ emissions between the two countries by using a traditional input–output (IO) model, this study also estimates the effect of bilateral trade to CO₂ emissions by scenario analysis. The time series of quantifications indicate that CO₂ emissions embodied in exported goods from Japan to China increased overall from 1990 to 2000. The exported CO₂ emissions from China to Japan greatly increased in the first half of the 1990s. However, by 2000, the amount of emissions had reduced from 1995 levels. Regardless, there was a net export of CO₂ emissions from China to Japan during 1990–2000. The scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade has helped the reduction of CO₂ emissions. On average, the Chinese economy was confirmed to be much more carbon-intensive than Japan. The regression analysis shows a significant but not perfect correlation between the carbon intensities at the sector level of the two countries. In terms of CO₂ emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry could benefit from learning Japanese technologies that produce lower carbon intensities.     

Exercising multidisciplinary approach to assess interrelationship between energy use, carbon emission and land use change in a metropolitan city of Pakistan

Population of two cities in Pakistan has already crossed the 10-million figure and for the rest of the areas in the country populations are also increasing rapidly. Urbanization has boosted the use of energy in the cities and so is greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but the ground situation as to the extent, vulnerability, past trends and future scenarios are not unveiled for the cities of Pakistan. Dearth of data in Pakistan is a huge hindrance to the investigation of energy use and actual GHG emissions. We dared to take steps in addressing this case and put preliminary efforts in compiling baseline sectoral breakdown of energy use, carbon emission and land cover/land use. Furthermore, the relationship of CO₂ source and sink is also explored. This study mainly tries to achieve three objectives. The results illustrate that industrial and residential sectors are vibrant consumers of energy and CO₂ emitters among all other sectors of the city. Sparse trees in the city and reduced agriculture areas by more than one-half in 2009 compared with those in 1975 are the main reasons for increased energy use and reduced CO₂ emissions from agriculture sector as well. However, all the other sectors have increased their CO₂ emissions in an escalating trend. The forecast analysis portrays the same trend too. Therefore, there is a need to make policy makers recognize such vulnerable situation of energy use and GHG emissions for them to take proper and timely actions to cope with the threats of climate change which can occur anytime in the very near future.     

The impact of CO2 taxation on the configuration of new refineries: An application to Brazil

This article evaluates the impact of pricing CO₂ emissions over the configuration of new refinery complexes in their conceptual phase. Two refineries’ schemes were simulated through a linear programming optimization model in order to compare the optimum configuration obtained before and after the input of different CO₂ prices. The cases analyzed represent refining projects to be located in Brazil, a growing market for fuels and petrochemical feedstocks, as well as an oil producing country with rising crude exports. After 2012, emerging countries, such as Brazil, may adopt carbon emission reduction targets. Therefore, it is worth analyzing the impact of pricing CO₂ emissions in these countries, where the majority of new refining projects will be located. Our findings indicate that the initial refinery configurations proposed are quite rigid technologically for CO₂ prices up to US$ 100/t CO₂. For CO₂ prices higher than US$ 100/t CO₂, refineries reduced their emissions by increasing the consumption of natural gas used to produce hydrogen, and through changes in the original configurations towards less-energy consuming process units. Promising technological advances, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), can also diminish the rigidity of the model and facilitate actions to curb carbon emissions.     

Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

In this study, we simulate global CO₂ emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO₂ emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO₂ emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO₂ emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO₂ from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO₂ provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO₂ compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO₂ emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production.